This series of moves by the cubs have been puzzling to say the least. As you might remember last week they traded away one time untouchable outfielder Felix Pie for a so so arm in Garrett Olsen and a single A pitcher. Well I guess they felt like they didn't quite get the crappy offer they were looking for a five tool prospect, they traded Olsen, and Ronny Cedeno for New York's fan favorite, Aaron Heilman. Yes we all know Aaron around these parts, the oftentimes horrible set up man for the Metropolitians with the penchant for giving up home runs (Yadier anyone?) who did nothing but complain that he wasn't starting his entire time here. Yes this same guy, and to think that the cubs traded away felix pie, ronny cedeno (a very useful middle infielder) and garrett olsen all to get this guy.
I mean come on, seriously Cubs? At least Olsen is lefty and only 25, Heilman's got nothing going for him. He's already 29 and he's coming off a simply atrocious year. In 76 innings he gave up TEN home runs and a 5.21 ERA, that's pretty lousy, that makes Professor Kyle Farnsworth look pretty good with his 4.48. Add in the fact he's moving the pitcher friendly Shea to Friendly Confines where a lot more of home runs get hit, you have to have to wonder if this is a recipe for disaster.
Now there's a chance that this was just a bad year, the guy did have ERAs in the low 3s prior to that and his walk to strikeout ratio wasn't bad 48/80, but its a lot to give up for a guy that's just okay. As I said earlier, Pie is a five tool guy who's still only 24, and cedeno was an important of their team last year and they gave him up for a guy that the mets would have gladly given away last year.
Now I have heard that these moves are precursors for bigger moves, namely for one Jake Peavy. Maybe that is the case and if they get Peavy as a result of these moves they certainly got a hell of a pitcher in his prime, but wouldn't these guys been more attractive to the padres to be involved in a potential trade than Aaron freaking Heilman? Further, they already have a pretty good back end of the bullpen with Kevin Gregg, Jeff Samardzija, and Carlos Marmol in place, where does he fit in?
I think the Cubs are tinkering a little too much with an already good team, they caught a bad break with a hot dodgers team last year, but they proved to be the best team in the national league for the most of the year, why mess with a good thing? Sure you can always improve a team, but sometimes you can try to do too much, I think this is the case for the Cubs and it will hurt them in the immediate future as well as beyond.
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About me
Just an out of work lawyer looking for work and spending the rest of my time reading, writing and taking everything I can in about the game I love, baseball.
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Some Key Terms to Know When Reading
I throw around a lot of numbers and stats so I figured I should probably explain some of them:
wOBA - a new one I'll be using, short for weighted on-base average is essentially an improvement on OPS. Scaled to average OBP (with .330 the league average) wOBA more properly weighs on-base percentage higher than slugging percentage and more accurately weighs extra base hits (a double isn't worth double of that of a single which is what SLG does) to give a better picture of a batter's worth.
.000/.000/.000 is the industry shorthand for the split stats for batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order, these are some of the more commonly used stats to indicate how productive a hitter is.
OPS - shorthand for On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging is becoming more in vogue in the mainstream media to get a better idea of the raw production of a hitter, instead of saying how often they get a hit OPS shows how productive those hits are.
BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in play, its pretty much what it says, how often that a batter puts in ball in play that it becomes a hit, its a stat that shows if a hitter is just having a lot of bad luck or a hot streak is just fluky. For instance a BABIP of .200 is considered unlucky its not that he's not hitting, he just isn't hitting where the fielders are not there.
OPS+ - as the name implies, OPS+ is OPS but with adjustments to park effects and other outliers to normalize the data. Indeed, as most people know some parks are harder to hit at than others, which this stat compensates for, 100 being the baseline of league average
wOBA - a new one I'll be using, short for weighted on-base average is essentially an improvement on OPS. Scaled to average OBP (with .330 the league average) wOBA more properly weighs on-base percentage higher than slugging percentage and more accurately weighs extra base hits (a double isn't worth double of that of a single which is what SLG does) to give a better picture of a batter's worth.
.000/.000/.000 is the industry shorthand for the split stats for batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order, these are some of the more commonly used stats to indicate how productive a hitter is.
OPS - shorthand for On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging is becoming more in vogue in the mainstream media to get a better idea of the raw production of a hitter, instead of saying how often they get a hit OPS shows how productive those hits are.
BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in play, its pretty much what it says, how often that a batter puts in ball in play that it becomes a hit, its a stat that shows if a hitter is just having a lot of bad luck or a hot streak is just fluky. For instance a BABIP of .200 is considered unlucky its not that he's not hitting, he just isn't hitting where the fielders are not there.
OPS+ - as the name implies, OPS+ is OPS but with adjustments to park effects and other outliers to normalize the data. Indeed, as most people know some parks are harder to hit at than others, which this stat compensates for, 100 being the baseline of league average
WAR - Wins Above Replacement, as its name suggests, provides an exact number of wins a particular player is worth above what your average AAA player, or replacement player would provide in his absence. Although this is a very difficult stat to explain (I don't totally get it personally) the stat is beautifully simple in that it provides a precise value of either a pitcher or hitter to his particular team, which enables teams to monetize their worth and properly assign a dollar value.
ERA+ - similar to OPS+ its a more highly sophisticated way of evaluating a pitcher's performance adjusted for park effects, this also is on a numerical basis with 100 as league average.
FIP - short for fielding independent pitching, FIP measures the only aspects of the game that a pitcher has total control over, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Scaled to ERA, FIP gives a truer indication of a pitcher's true talent by removing the luck apparent with balls in play.
WHIP - Walks and Hits per innings pitched, a little more well known stat, but a good indicator of how effective a pitcher is. Chances are if a guy is walking a lot of guys and giving up a hot of hits, he's not pitching all that well.
xFIP- a variation of FIP which normalizes home run rates as a way to discount aberrational home run rates that are either too high or too low to reasonably sustain.
UZR- Short of Ultimate Zone Rating, this is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined. This is a difficult stat to understand because it's not one of those stats you can figure out at home, because it includes a bevy of factors including park effects and speed. As a consequence, its not a perfect stat, but its the best defensive stat we have. Also seen as UZR/150 is the Ultimate Zone rating per 150 games.
RngR - Range Runs is defined as the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity. Also not a perfect fielding stat, but one of the many fielding stats that help as as fans get a fuller picture of a player's defensive prowess.
ERA+ - similar to OPS+ its a more highly sophisticated way of evaluating a pitcher's performance adjusted for park effects, this also is on a numerical basis with 100 as league average.
FIP - short for fielding independent pitching, FIP measures the only aspects of the game that a pitcher has total control over, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Scaled to ERA, FIP gives a truer indication of a pitcher's true talent by removing the luck apparent with balls in play.
WHIP - Walks and Hits per innings pitched, a little more well known stat, but a good indicator of how effective a pitcher is. Chances are if a guy is walking a lot of guys and giving up a hot of hits, he's not pitching all that well.
xFIP- a variation of FIP which normalizes home run rates as a way to discount aberrational home run rates that are either too high or too low to reasonably sustain.
UZR- Short of Ultimate Zone Rating, this is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined. This is a difficult stat to understand because it's not one of those stats you can figure out at home, because it includes a bevy of factors including park effects and speed. As a consequence, its not a perfect stat, but its the best defensive stat we have. Also seen as UZR/150 is the Ultimate Zone rating per 150 games.
RngR - Range Runs is defined as the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity. Also not a perfect fielding stat, but one of the many fielding stats that help as as fans get a fuller picture of a player's defensive prowess.
About Me
- burnsie77
- Morristown, NJ, United States
- I write and read everything I can about baseball and have some thoughts about it.
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- Tek gets his multi-year deal
- Billionaires are pleading poverty...right
- Yeah, Heilman, he's um, good
- What the hell do I know...
- Jim Edmonds? Seriously?
- That Torre, what a nice guy
- The best young team on the rise is...the Rangers?
- I guess Howard needs to be able to buy more cheest...
- One's team trash is another's treasure
- It seems the Manny act doesn't wow 'em like it use...
- Andy Pettitte and Steinbrenner's war over six million
- Andruw Jones reportedly released by Dodgers, LA ar...
- Baseball, baseball, everywhere
- So why exactly isn't Ben Sheets signed yet?
- Tell me this isn't a little weird looking
- It's on a Month Away.....
- You don't have Pat the Bat to kick around no more...
- Money well spent?
- Four years for a 36 year old pitcher, this should ...
- An Ode to A Noble Game
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Blog Archive
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2009
(123)
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January
(20)
- Tek gets his multi-year deal
- Billionaires are pleading poverty...right
- Yeah, Heilman, he's um, good
- What the hell do I know...
- Jim Edmonds? Seriously?
- That Torre, what a nice guy
- The best young team on the rise is...the Rangers?
- I guess Howard needs to be able to buy more cheest...
- One's team trash is another's treasure
- It seems the Manny act doesn't wow 'em like it use...
- Andy Pettitte and Steinbrenner's war over six million
- Andruw Jones reportedly released by Dodgers, LA ar...
- Baseball, baseball, everywhere
- So why exactly isn't Ben Sheets signed yet?
- Tell me this isn't a little weird looking
- It's on a Month Away.....
- You don't have Pat the Bat to kick around no more...
- Money well spent?
- Four years for a 36 year old pitcher, this should ...
- An Ode to A Noble Game
-
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January
(20)
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