I'm going to attempt to make up for not blogging yesterday, but I'm at work so I still have to at least put up a front that I'm putting some effort here. Interesting deal went down yesterday that probably won't make a whole lot of difference this year, but I forsee it being one in the years to come. The Cubs traded the once top prospect Felix Pie (he ranked 1 overall in their system for 06' and 07' by Baseball America) for LHP Garrett Olson and RHP Henry Williamson and to be honest I can't believe Baltimore got away with this. I won't go into Williamson, a 14th round pick last year in single A because he's so far off from the majors its impossible to project him, but as someone who watches a lot of AL east baseball i can tell you that there is positively nothing impressive about garrett olson aside from the fact he throws with his left hand. His numbers aren't indicitive of any discernable talent as last year at 25, he was 9-10 with a 6.65 ERA in 26 starts for Baltimore last season., and in 33 career starts for the Orioles, Olson was 10-13 with a 6.87 ERA. Now he is still young, 25 and sometimes lefties take longer to get it together but there's nothing really to indiciate he'll be better than a 5th starter for them, with a pedestrian 83K's in 132 innings with 62 walks. He'll probably serve as a bullpen arm or possibly as a back end of the rotation, certianly not worthless, but its painful to consider what they gave up to get that in Pie. While in sporadic playing time he has not exactly impressed, I believe this is a result of a lack of consist playing time rather than any lack of talent. His numbers in the minors suggest a great deal of potential posting a career line of 299BA .353OBP .470SLG with over a 100 stolen bases over the course of 5 seasons indicates a true talent hitting for power and average, showing good to average plate disicpline as well as speed on the basepaths. As I said he was their top prospect considered untouchable for a time, so what happened? I for one credit Sweet Lou Pinella on this one, refusing to give the kid a shot or at least a legitmate one, maybe he didn't like the cut of his jib or something, but there seems to be no real reason for it and I find it puzzling. Indeed, Pie could have potentially filled the gaping hold in center field for the cubs, possibly giving them a powerful left handed bat (something they are very clearly lacking as last years NLDS indicated) as well as speed on the basepaths in the range to play an execellent center for the cubbies. Who knows, maybe there is something seriously wrong with Pie, after all Pinella through his years of success in baseball as a player and manager has proven himself to be a sharp baseball mind, and I wouldn't doubt that he knows more about the game than I do, but from what I can tell this is a short sighted move that is a direct result of impatience on the part of the cubs. On the other side, it seems as though Baltimore has set themselves up nicely in the outfield for years to come. I mean seriously, Markakis in right, Adam Jones in center and Pie in left, I dare you to find an outfield filled with better young talent, thats crazy. Of course young talent is no guarantee but I like what Baltimore is doing a lot, biding their time and quietly collecting a great deal of young cheap talent to compete in the future. Now in the short term this deal could be benefical for the cubs, olson has decent stuff and could very well succeed in a bullpen role, but the impact that has in compared to a power hitting center fielder is pretty small. Not like the cubs fans dont have enough to hang their head about, I fear they will rue the day Pie became a Oriole.
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About me
Just an out of work lawyer looking for work and spending the rest of my time reading, writing and taking everything I can in about the game I love, baseball.
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Some Key Terms to Know When Reading
I throw around a lot of numbers and stats so I figured I should probably explain some of them:
wOBA - a new one I'll be using, short for weighted on-base average is essentially an improvement on OPS. Scaled to average OBP (with .330 the league average) wOBA more properly weighs on-base percentage higher than slugging percentage and more accurately weighs extra base hits (a double isn't worth double of that of a single which is what SLG does) to give a better picture of a batter's worth.
.000/.000/.000 is the industry shorthand for the split stats for batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order, these are some of the more commonly used stats to indicate how productive a hitter is.
OPS - shorthand for On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging is becoming more in vogue in the mainstream media to get a better idea of the raw production of a hitter, instead of saying how often they get a hit OPS shows how productive those hits are.
BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in play, its pretty much what it says, how often that a batter puts in ball in play that it becomes a hit, its a stat that shows if a hitter is just having a lot of bad luck or a hot streak is just fluky. For instance a BABIP of .200 is considered unlucky its not that he's not hitting, he just isn't hitting where the fielders are not there.
OPS+ - as the name implies, OPS+ is OPS but with adjustments to park effects and other outliers to normalize the data. Indeed, as most people know some parks are harder to hit at than others, which this stat compensates for, 100 being the baseline of league average
wOBA - a new one I'll be using, short for weighted on-base average is essentially an improvement on OPS. Scaled to average OBP (with .330 the league average) wOBA more properly weighs on-base percentage higher than slugging percentage and more accurately weighs extra base hits (a double isn't worth double of that of a single which is what SLG does) to give a better picture of a batter's worth.
.000/.000/.000 is the industry shorthand for the split stats for batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order, these are some of the more commonly used stats to indicate how productive a hitter is.
OPS - shorthand for On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging is becoming more in vogue in the mainstream media to get a better idea of the raw production of a hitter, instead of saying how often they get a hit OPS shows how productive those hits are.
BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in play, its pretty much what it says, how often that a batter puts in ball in play that it becomes a hit, its a stat that shows if a hitter is just having a lot of bad luck or a hot streak is just fluky. For instance a BABIP of .200 is considered unlucky its not that he's not hitting, he just isn't hitting where the fielders are not there.
OPS+ - as the name implies, OPS+ is OPS but with adjustments to park effects and other outliers to normalize the data. Indeed, as most people know some parks are harder to hit at than others, which this stat compensates for, 100 being the baseline of league average
WAR - Wins Above Replacement, as its name suggests, provides an exact number of wins a particular player is worth above what your average AAA player, or replacement player would provide in his absence. Although this is a very difficult stat to explain (I don't totally get it personally) the stat is beautifully simple in that it provides a precise value of either a pitcher or hitter to his particular team, which enables teams to monetize their worth and properly assign a dollar value.
ERA+ - similar to OPS+ its a more highly sophisticated way of evaluating a pitcher's performance adjusted for park effects, this also is on a numerical basis with 100 as league average.
FIP - short for fielding independent pitching, FIP measures the only aspects of the game that a pitcher has total control over, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Scaled to ERA, FIP gives a truer indication of a pitcher's true talent by removing the luck apparent with balls in play.
WHIP - Walks and Hits per innings pitched, a little more well known stat, but a good indicator of how effective a pitcher is. Chances are if a guy is walking a lot of guys and giving up a hot of hits, he's not pitching all that well.
xFIP- a variation of FIP which normalizes home run rates as a way to discount aberrational home run rates that are either too high or too low to reasonably sustain.
UZR- Short of Ultimate Zone Rating, this is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined. This is a difficult stat to understand because it's not one of those stats you can figure out at home, because it includes a bevy of factors including park effects and speed. As a consequence, its not a perfect stat, but its the best defensive stat we have. Also seen as UZR/150 is the Ultimate Zone rating per 150 games.
RngR - Range Runs is defined as the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity. Also not a perfect fielding stat, but one of the many fielding stats that help as as fans get a fuller picture of a player's defensive prowess.
ERA+ - similar to OPS+ its a more highly sophisticated way of evaluating a pitcher's performance adjusted for park effects, this also is on a numerical basis with 100 as league average.
FIP - short for fielding independent pitching, FIP measures the only aspects of the game that a pitcher has total control over, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Scaled to ERA, FIP gives a truer indication of a pitcher's true talent by removing the luck apparent with balls in play.
WHIP - Walks and Hits per innings pitched, a little more well known stat, but a good indicator of how effective a pitcher is. Chances are if a guy is walking a lot of guys and giving up a hot of hits, he's not pitching all that well.
xFIP- a variation of FIP which normalizes home run rates as a way to discount aberrational home run rates that are either too high or too low to reasonably sustain.
UZR- Short of Ultimate Zone Rating, this is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined. This is a difficult stat to understand because it's not one of those stats you can figure out at home, because it includes a bevy of factors including park effects and speed. As a consequence, its not a perfect stat, but its the best defensive stat we have. Also seen as UZR/150 is the Ultimate Zone rating per 150 games.
RngR - Range Runs is defined as the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity. Also not a perfect fielding stat, but one of the many fielding stats that help as as fans get a fuller picture of a player's defensive prowess.
About Me
- burnsie77
- Morristown, NJ, United States
- I write and read everything I can about baseball and have some thoughts about it.
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- Baseball, baseball, everywhere
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- Tell me this isn't a little weird looking
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2009
(123)
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January
(20)
- Tek gets his multi-year deal
- Billionaires are pleading poverty...right
- Yeah, Heilman, he's um, good
- What the hell do I know...
- Jim Edmonds? Seriously?
- That Torre, what a nice guy
- The best young team on the rise is...the Rangers?
- I guess Howard needs to be able to buy more cheest...
- One's team trash is another's treasure
- It seems the Manny act doesn't wow 'em like it use...
- Andy Pettitte and Steinbrenner's war over six million
- Andruw Jones reportedly released by Dodgers, LA ar...
- Baseball, baseball, everywhere
- So why exactly isn't Ben Sheets signed yet?
- Tell me this isn't a little weird looking
- It's on a Month Away.....
- You don't have Pat the Bat to kick around no more...
- Money well spent?
- Four years for a 36 year old pitcher, this should ...
- An Ode to A Noble Game
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January
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