It's arbitration hearing time and I for one am intrigued how the arbiters will judge in light of the present state of the economy, in particular one for Ryan Howard. Howard, while only through four years of major league service, he has certainly accomplished a great deal in a short time. His credentials include a Rookie of the Year trophy, an MVP (not to mention a second place and fifth place finish), a World Series Title, and 153 HR & 431 RBI over the last three years - but is he really worthy of being the fifth highest paid hitter in the game today? Perhaps even more fitting, is he really deserving of $2M more in annual salary than Albert Pujols? Last year Howard was awarded ten million in his first arbitration hearing, a record for sure, but was his performance so much better to deserve another eight million? I for one would argue no. For sure, Howard has some astounding numbers, but is he worthy of being paid as one of the top five hitters in the game? More precisely would you consider him the fifth best hitter in the game? Here's a list of the highest paid position players for the next year curtesy of cot's baseball contracts http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/05/most-lucrative-contracts.html
1. A-Rod (27.5mil)
2. Mark Texiera (22.5mil)
3. Manny Ramirez (20mil)
4. Miguel Cabrera (19mil)
5. Derek Jeter (18.5mil)
Now can you really with any certainity say that Howard is a better player than any of those? Further there are many other guys like Pujols who's less than that who make less than that? For a closer look let's look at his stats thus far:
| Year | Tm | Lg | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | SB% | BB | K | BA | OBP | SLG | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | PHI | NL | 19 | 42 | 39 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | N/A | 2 | 13 | .282 | .333 | .564 | ||||||
| 2005 | PHI | NL | 88 | 348 | 312 | 52 | 90 | 17 | 2 | 22 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 33 | 100 | .288 | .356 | .567 | ||||||
| 2006 | PHI | NL | 159 | 704 | 581 | 104 | 182 | 25 | 1 | 58 | 149 | 0 | 0 | N/A | 108 | 181 | .313 | .425 | .659 | ||||||
| 2007 | PHI | NL | 144 | 648 | 529 | 94 | 142 | 26 | 0 | 47 | 136 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% | 107 | 199 | .268 | .392 | .584 | ||||||
| 2008 | PHI | NL | 162 | 700 | 610 | 105 | 153 | 26 | 4 | 48 | 146 | 1 | 1 | 50.0% | 81 | 199 | .251 | .339 | .543 |
Impressive numbers for sure, big home run totals, big RBI numbers, but big strikeout numbers and a low batting average to go with it. Now with the exception of Jeter, who's obviously does not hit for the same level of power as the rest, the guys listed above do everything well all the time, hit for power, hit for average, walk, steal bases and just plan create runs every which way. For Howard you can't really say that, his offensive value is dervied almost entirely from home runs which come with a lot of whiffs to go with it, as well as a negative defensive value and horrdenous base-running. Not all of these guys unilaterally excel at all three facets of the game, cabrera and ramirez are pretty awful in the field as well but they still have more positives than negatives. Yes Howard did begin the season very poorly and ended well, and you could guess that his walk numbers and batting average will go up, but I don't see it happening. The way Howard approaches each at bat is to hit home runs, lots of them, for which he hits a lot of home runs and drives in a ton, but as he gets older I don't see him regressing back to more of a take it the other way approach. In short, I see Howard closer to a Adam Dunn than Mark Texiera. While Dunn is certainly a force at the plate hitting 40 home runs every year for the last 4 yeas, you'll notice there isn't much of a market for him today. While there is time for it to change Dunn is looking at a one year deal somewhere because he is a one-dimensional player; Howard is that same kind of player. Now I am not arguing that Howard is exactly as good or valuable as Adam Dunn, he's younger and he is better, but he is a similar player who should be valued in the same way, great in one facet of the game, but not a great all around player. I'm not saying Howard doesn't deserve to get paid, the Phillies' counter-offer of 14million is hardly pennies and a little more reasonable, but I think Ryan has a higher opinion of his offensive value than he should.
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