New York Nine

Baseball the way it was meant to be, down and dirty with brutally honest analysis

Well it seems as though pitching is recession proof. If you haven't heard the Braves, the same team who after trading for Mark Texiera and unloaded the best of their farm system for a one year rental and subsequently traded him claiming poverty just ponied up 60mil for four years for Derek Lowe. While he's a good pitcher, emphasis on good not great, I don't like the move and I especially don't like the contract. Here's his stats as from the last five years.

earTmLgGGSShOWLERASOpHIPHitKBBHBPWHIP









2004BOSAL3333014125.42000182.72241057181.61









2005LANNL3535212153.61000222.02231465551.25









2006LANNL353401683.63000218.02211235551.27









2007LANNL3332012143.88001199.31941475911.27









2008LANNL3434014113.24000211.01941474511.13











Not terrible for sure and certainly durable, but does this really scream "hey this guy deserves 15 million a year"? Upon further review you have to wonder how much he really helped from pitching about half of his games in one of the best pitchers parks in the game, dodger stadium, consider this His ERA has definitely benefited from playing in Dodger Stadium. he's had a pretty pronounced difference in his splits each of the last 3 seasons (2008 was particularly skewed - 2.30 at home, 4.42 on the road). 2005 was the only year he posted a better road ERA (3.48) than home ERA (3.74). So while he does have many admirable traits, particularly his ability to keep the ball in the park only 14 home runs allowed last year, who's to say that won't go up now that he's not pitching in Chavez Ravine? Now he'll be pitching more games at the bambox that is Citizens Bank Park where he didn't fare so well last year as well as other less pitcher friendly parks. Further, he's moving from the abomination that is the National League West to the NL east with three teams, the marlins, mets and phillies (the Nats don't count) that have actual lineups with some fairly dangerous hitters with the likes of Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Chase Utley and so and so forth. Still worse, he's 36! And you've got him for four years! You really think he's going to continue this level of consistently a year older and without the benefit of an extreme pitchers park? Especially when he's 40? So with Lowe their rotation stands as:


Lowe
Vazquez
Jurigens
kawakami
(hudson in the second half)

Is that really better than their competition? Is it better than the phillies or even the mets? I dont think so. Their offense outside of chipper and mcann (and kotchman to an extent) is pretty pedestrian. I predict another third or fourth place team.

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