New York Nine

This off-season has certainly been one of the more intriguing to say the least. In a time of economic turmoil where everyone has had to tighten their spending it seemed natural that there would be a market correction on the sky-rocketing contracts for players, but did anyone expect this? Aside from the yankees spending spree, most teams have been astonishingly quiet on the free agent front, pleading poverty and suddenly unwilling to dole out the dough at even somewhat reasonable levels. Indeed, some players and I for one am starting to wonder whether the economic downturn is really precluding owners to spend on players, or are they merely using it as an excuse to bring down prices more to their liking? It is hard to say not knowing the intimate financial information for the 30 baseball owners, but I think they are using the economy to deprive some players from getting at least a fair market value.

Among the position players the player who seems to be getting squeezed the most is Adam Dunn. While he is not the most popular player in some circles because of his low batting average and high strikeout totals the guy produces runs, end of story. Five years of hitting 40 home runs in a row after hitting 46 the year before, the 29 year old slugger has a lifetime on base percentage of .381 and a slugging of .518. Yes he can be infuriating to watch at times because he's always going up there to hit a home run, but he is a patient hitter produces a great deal of runs, whether that be driving them in, hitting in at least 90 every year or runs scored which he does plenty of because he's on base so much. And yet he's unsigned and by many accounts looking at a one year deal, but why? Consider that Jose Guillen and his .264/.300/.438 line got 3 years 36 million last year, is there anyone that thinks Guillen is a better player than Dunn? How can he not be able to get at least that deal? For certain, a player of his caliber deserves better.


Consider also Bobby Abreu. While his power has dwained from years past Bobby has proved to be a valuable hitter in his time with the phillies and yankees, driving in 100 runs seven times in a row, stealing at least 20 bases, all while posting a career line of .300/.405/.498, not bad for a 35 year old. He's a guy who does everything well (with the exception of his sometimes timourous fielding) still at an age where a long term deal from a team is usually not outlandish, and yet he also is looking at the prospect of a one year deal. Indeed, the Yankees shocked most by not offering arbitration to Bobby but its looking like he won't get anywhere near the 16 million he got last year, but why?

Again, I don't know how these owners are doing financially, maybe they are really strapped for cash and are bearing down across the board, but I don't buy it. Baseball is making more money than it ever has, whether that be in ticket sales which are at an all-time high or lucractive tv deals, including the new MLB network (which rocks by the way) the cash is coming in like never before, but where is it going? Times like these require everyone to be more fiscially prudent and in truth the contracts were getting out of control, but when quality proven all-stars like these two men can't get a multi-year deal from anyone, you have to wonder if something is very wrong.

This series of moves by the cubs have been puzzling to say the least. As you might remember last week they traded away one time untouchable outfielder Felix Pie for a so so arm in Garrett Olsen and a single A pitcher. Well I guess they felt like they didn't quite get the crappy offer they were looking for a five tool prospect, they traded Olsen, and Ronny Cedeno for New York's fan favorite, Aaron Heilman. Yes we all know Aaron around these parts, the oftentimes horrible set up man for the Metropolitians with the penchant for giving up home runs (Yadier anyone?) who did nothing but complain that he wasn't starting his entire time here. Yes this same guy, and to think that the cubs traded away felix pie, ronny cedeno (a very useful middle infielder) and garrett olsen all to get this guy.

I mean come on, seriously Cubs? At least Olsen is lefty and only 25, Heilman's got nothing going for him. He's already 29 and he's coming off a simply atrocious year. In 76 innings he gave up TEN home runs and a 5.21 ERA, that's pretty lousy, that makes Professor Kyle Farnsworth look pretty good with his 4.48. Add in the fact he's moving the pitcher friendly Shea to Friendly Confines where a lot more of home runs get hit, you have to have to wonder if this is a recipe for disaster.

Now there's a chance that this was just a bad year, the guy did have ERAs in the low 3s prior to that and his walk to strikeout ratio wasn't bad 48/80, but its a lot to give up for a guy that's just okay. As I said earlier, Pie is a five tool guy who's still only 24, and cedeno was an important of their team last year and they gave him up for a guy that the mets would have gladly given away last year.

Now I have heard that these moves are precursors for bigger moves, namely for one Jake Peavy. Maybe that is the case and if they get Peavy as a result of these moves they certainly got a hell of a pitcher in his prime, but wouldn't these guys been more attractive to the padres to be involved in a potential trade than Aaron freaking Heilman? Further, they already have a pretty good back end of the bullpen with Kevin Gregg, Jeff Samardzija, and Carlos Marmol in place, where does he fit in?

I think the Cubs are tinkering a little too much with an already good team, they caught a bad break with a hot dodgers team last year, but they proved to be the best team in the national league for the most of the year, why mess with a good thing? Sure you can always improve a team, but sometimes you can try to do too much, I think this is the case for the Cubs and it will hurt them in the immediate future as well as beyond.

Well I guess this is why I'm writing this blog and Brian Cashman is the GM of the Yankees, because he's pretty damn good at his job.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/01/26/pettitte.yankees.ap/index.html

I had advocated earlier that the yankees should just give into Andy's demands of 16million because they needed him badly. Well they did need him, but clearly Brian is a deft negoiator, he knew that Andy wanted to go back to new york and only new york and it was only a matter of time until Pettitte realized this is it take it or leave it. What's interesting is that he didn't take the 10 million guaranteed in favor of a contract with incentives up to 12 million, I guess Andy feels pretty confident he can reach the milestones necessary to get the dough. Obviously I love the move, the yankees needed andy's innings to ensure any sort of consistency in the rotation and they got it at a very reasonable price of 6 million guaranteed. Cashman played this very well and I applaud him for it, they needed it.

Now I'd like to think I know a bit about whats going on in baseball, but apparently I've been oblivious of what's been going on down in Arlington, Texas these days. Indeed, if you haven't seen on ESPN.com Keith Law, one of the smarter baseball writers out there, had his annual list of most talented farm systems and there was the Texas Rangers on the top, Texas? Still stranger, according to Law its not even close, the Rangers are stocked with talent from top to bottom, full of power arms and talented athletes, when did this happen? I mean the Rangers aren't exactly the Pirates, they have one of the best young stars in the game in Josh Hamilton, but what can you say about them other than that? In truth, general manager Jon Daniels seems to have done a great deal of deft trading since he got the job three years ago and seems primed to make the Rangers a dangerous team in the years to come.

It seems to have really taken off with the Mark Texiera trade that things really got going for Texas. Two season ago they sent the soon to be free agent to Atlanta for a boatload of prospects that included switch hitting Jerod Saltamachia (I definitely didn't spell that's close enough) Elvis Andrus, slotted to play shortstop next year as well as a young talented first baseman Chris Davis, but it seems that's only the start. Indeed, they've done a great deal in the international market signing Neftali Feliz, Engel Beltre and Carlos Melo and excellent draft picks like Justin Smoak, a right handed pitcher, this year there is an impressive influx of talent coming through the rangers system.

Now I can't say that I know nearly as much about these guys as Law or some of the other guys in field, but I find this intriguing. The rangers seem to have been a perennial door mat the last few years, possessing a great offense year in and year out, but lacking a pitching staff to be a legitimate contender. Now young talent does not always translate into success, there have been plenty of flame outs in baseball, but with such an abundance of talent it seems almost inevitable that the rangers will become a force in this league shortly, just as the rays did last year after years of misery. Time will tell for sure, it's going to be difficult to get a good staff who pitches half of their games in Arlington, but as the Phillies showed last year it is possible to have good pitching in a hitters park. Whatever may happen in the coming years it seems that things will at the very least be interesting down in Texas for awhile with their new found fountain of young talent.

It's arbitration hearing time and I for one am intrigued how the arbiters will judge in light of the present state of the economy, in particular one for Ryan Howard. Howard, while only through four years of major league service, he has certainly accomplished a great deal in a short time. His credentials include a Rookie of the Year trophy, an MVP (not to mention a second place and fifth place finish), a World Series Title, and 153 HR & 431 RBI over the last three years - but is he really worthy of being the fifth highest paid hitter in the game today? Perhaps even more fitting, is he really deserving of $2M more in annual salary than Albert Pujols? Last year Howard was awarded ten million in his first arbitration hearing, a record for sure, but was his performance so much better to deserve another eight million? I for one would argue no. For sure, Howard has some astounding numbers, but is he worthy of being paid as one of the top five hitters in the game? More precisely would you consider him the fifth best hitter in the game? Here's a list of the highest paid position players for the next year curtesy of cot's baseball contracts http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/05/most-lucrative-contracts.html

1. A-Rod (27.5mil)
2. Mark Texiera (22.5mil)
3. Manny Ramirez (20mil)
4. Miguel Cabrera (19mil)
5. Derek Jeter (18.5mil)

Now can you really with any certainity say that Howard is a better player than any of those? Further there are many other guys like Pujols who's less than that who make less than that? For a closer look let's look at his stats thus far:

There are many things one can say about one Manuel Aristides Ramírez Onelcida, some of it good and spectacular, some of it very damning and negative to which many argue over, but what you can't argue is that Manny is one of those players you don't want to be facing with the game on the line. Indeed, it is hard to argue with Manny's immense talents, his seemingly effortless ability to make a pitcher pay on even the most perfect of pitches, and for this he makes it very easy to hate him. In contrast to some less naturally gifted players in the game Manny at times looks indifferent, uninterested and still worse cocky and arrogant. For sure, as a Yankee fan I have learned to cringe with dread every time he strolls into the box, hating him all the more every at-bat, seemingly deciding to just "turn it on" when it mattered and just shutting it down whenever it tickled his fancy. Well it seems as though the powers that be in baseball have grown sick and weary of his same old song and dance as well, leaving Manny and his new super-agent Scott Boras holding the proverbial bag. Indeed, a few months ago it seemed as though Manny could just get whatever he wanted, very clearly mailing it in as trade deadline for the Boston Red Sox, dogging it down the first base line, giving up on pitches he normally would hammer and apparently faking injuries whenever he wasn't up to it. As a Yankee fan I knew something was up when in a game Manny went to pinch hit against Mariano in a game at Fenway and Manny just sat with his bat on his shoulder as three mariano cutters buzzed by without him even moving, only to walk right back to the dugout from whence he came without even a hint of concern. So finally Manny got his wish, he got to leave Boston where he was beloved by fans and well compensated for another two years and fled to Los Angeles and the Southern California sun where he subsequently decided to just "turn it on." The suddenly healed Manny put on one of the greatest tears at the plate this game has ever seen. Ramirez was named the National League Player of the Month for August 2008. He hit .415 (44-for-106) with seven doubles, nine home runs, 25 RBIs and 21 runs scored during the month. He finished the season with the Dodgers hitting a .396 batting average, 17 home runs, and 53 RBI. Ramirez finished the season with 37 home runs and 121 runs batted in. Among all major leaguers he finished 3rd in batting average, 2nd in slugging percentage, and 3rd in OPS. For sure, when it mattered, contract time, Manny could still show just how lethal he his with the bat, one of the all-time greats, but this time there is no one to play along. After stating his demands for a four year deal and scoffing at the Dodgers' 2 year 45 million offer (Boras rejected it and responded by saying "we will now start accepting real offers from respective teams" what a despicable bastard) the money train never pulled into the station. Yes there have been teams tied to Manny, my yankees for one for a time, the giants, but those "real offers" haven't come in yet and I for one am happy to see it. While some of Manny's criticisms I feel are unwarranted, I have read a great deal speaking to Manny's unparalled work ethic (ed. note: if you're interested the New Yorker ran a wonderful piece on Manny a couple of years ago about this, I highly reccommend it http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/04/23/070423fa_fact_mcgrath), the first to arrive and the last to leave honing his craft, this sort of selfish behavior on the field has been rewarded all too often in sports. Players too frequently mail it in when its appropriate and then somehow just make it happen when they see the dollar signs up ahead. In this time of economic crisis, spending lavishly on a player such as this is a luxury most owners cannot afford and Manny is feeling the pinch for this. When Manny is playing at the top of his game, few are better, his combination of power while still possessing a great batters eye and hitting for average is something that is virtually incomprable in baseball today and even in the history of baseball. But if Manny or certainly any other talented player thinks that trying hard all the time is not a necessity, they're going to hurt where it hurts them most, the wallet.

In case anyone hasn't heard but the yankees have spend a few bucks this winter. 181 mil on Mark Texiera, another 160 on CC Sabbathia, and another 80 million on AJ Burnett, quite a spending spree for sure but it seems as though even Hal and Hank have their limits, or so they are suggesting. Indeed, when it has come to the case of Andy Pettitte, the Steinbrenner brothers have been reluctant to shell out the big money for what would be their 5 starter and in many ways its hard to argue their rationale. Consider Andy's numbers last year 4.54 ERA 233 hits in 203 innings and 19 home runs, not exactly great numbers, and moreover numbers that hardly merit the 16 million salary he is asking for. Instead Cashman offered 10 million, a paycut from his previous two seasons, but not exactly pennies, but adjusted to the economic realities of this past year. But for a moment consider Andy's position. Andy has been given "true yankee" title years ago through years of competant and gutsy performances since he came up in 1996. He did leave for a time for houston, but he has never really lost that "true yankee" status in the eyes of fans and ownership alike. Now Andy had a bad year for sure, but he's given the team a lot, he's paid his dues and he see the spending spree they've put on this winter, seemingly tossing money at everyone, some less reliable and deserving that you are (at least in his eyes) and they're going to quibble with you over six million? Especially with the current fragility of the rotation I think the Steinbrenners need to just swallow their pride and give the guy what he's asking. Take a look at the rotation

Sabbathia
Wang
Burnett
Chamberlain
Hughes/Kennedy/Alceves/some other guy

I count there two guys you can count on giving you 200 innings (and even that is a stretch with Wang out half the year last year), and that's not enough. As I've mentioned earlier you can't win without pitching, specifically pitching depth. The red sox have gone out and gotten guys who are proven and you can count on giving innings. while i love the potential of joba hughes and kennedy last year showed that we cannot count of them yet, they need to prove that they can be counted on still. I say Hal, bite the bullet, its too much money to give a guy with a 4.5 ERA but you need him, and you need his innings to ensure any kind of consistency in the rotation this year because if not I fear Cashman will be looking in the rolodex for the old re-treads who are still out of work like our boy sidney ponson. If we want to have any shot to compete with the great pitching of the sox and rays we need to have comprable pitching to compete and right now I dont see enough durable pitching to do that. Maybe Andy will meet them half way, but I doubt it, this six million they give him could be worth more than they think.

Please excuse the blurriness of the picture but I felt this picture perfectly epitomizes Jones' tenure with the dodgers, whining like a fat baby and ultimately coming short and giving them nothing. I mean that will all due respect and reverence of course for this 10 time gold glove winner (hold on sorry, I have to finish laughing, okay I'm good). Jones' fall from grace from being among the all-time greats to being a laughingstock is indeed one of the strangest as well as saddest occurences in the last few years. Indeed, although he's only 31 he has been one of the stars of the game for some time now, seemingly bursting with unassailable talent and grace. I think back to 1996 World Series where he hit two home runs in a game as a 19 YEAR OLD, even then as a young kid I recognized quickly that this guy is going to a star, and possibly one of the all-time greats. But it seems as though now in his 30s Andruw is fat and happy, content with what he has accomplished thus far being one of theyoungest in the history in the game to hit 300 home runs, and famously being the only player ever, not even the great willie mays can say this, with 10 STRAIGHT gold gloves. And yet while showing signs of decline thanks to his increasing weight and subsequent loss of bat speed it wasn't until this last year that Andruw truly reached bottom, hitting a ghastly .158 with three home runs and 14RBIs in 75 games. How does that happen? This the same guy that hit .263 with a career-high 51 homers and 128 RBIs in 2005 and .262 with 41 homers and a career-best 129 RBIs in 2006, where is that guy hiding, beneath his current girth? I don't profess to be a big Jones fan, and in fact I have thought him to be a bit overrated in the past (if Willie freaking Mays can't get ten straight gold gloves, nobody deserves it) but as a baseball fan it saddens me to think a guy who seemed destined for greatness who had accomplished so much already and seemed pre-ordianed to have his name mentioned among the all time greats at the center field position is seemingly out of gas at 31. I have heard that he is training with his friend and former teammate Chipper Jones and he is alledgedly on the Braves' radar again, but time will tell. For sure, he's can't get much worse than how he fared last year, but how much better he can get and how close he can get to approximating his prior glory remians to be seen.

I was actually going to write about something else, but I happened to turn on the TV and behold one of the my favorite baseball movies was on, Major League (it's not my favorite, I have a definitive list in my head, but that's for another day). When you think about this movie its really so ridiculous, it came out in 1989 and it is every bit a product of the 80s from the cheesy music all over, the bad hair styles, corny lines and a sappy ending, but the movie is better than people give it credit. I mean you have a great cast, from Tom Berenger at his badass zenith coming off movies like Platoon (if he had that scar all the time that would be even more badass) and Born on the Fourth of July, Charlie Sheen at top of his game, both acting and hairstyle wise, Corbin Bernsen who plays an excellent movie douchebag, not to mention an young Welsey Snipes and Dennis Haysbert (I couldn't watch 24 without thinking "I say fuck you joubu I do it myself") , and a still hot Rene Russo. That's a hell of a cast for a a movie about the freaking Indians. And of course you have the incomprable Bob Uecker in all his drunken glory giving you the play by play throughout. I mean you put all those together and how could you not have an awesome movie? If you haven't seen this movie somehow I strongly reccomend renting it, seeing it on Comedy Central or some other network just really takes away from the delightful raunchy-ness of this film. And yet at the core of the movie, once you get past the 80s-ness of it its a well done baseball movie with some hilarious moments in the locker room and on the field, all culminating in a dramatic and ultimately satsifying finale complete with some intense slow-mo camera and some great twists and turns. There is also two sequels to this movie, each successively worse than the previous one, but you have to see this movie if you're a real baseball fan because its just plain fun to watch. Nothing like a little baseball, albeit fake baseball to let me forget that its ten degrees out still.

Now it is only mid-January. There is still a possibility that the market for Sheets is still biding its time before they make him an offer that comes somewhat close to being worthy to his talents, but from what I hear around the rumor mill it isn't good for Mr. Sheets, but why? Only six months ago he was the National League starter for the All-Star game, one of his four appearances before his 30th birthday, dazzling hitters with his high-powered fastball and his knee-buckling curveball. And yet here he is, mid-January and it seems as though no one wants to touch the guy with a ten foot pole, but why? Let's go to the stats:

• In 2005, he sustained what was termed a "viral infection" of the inner ear, and missed 30 games due to dizziness and altered balance.


• A torn latissimus dorsi muscle in his right shoulder occurred in late August and ended his season.


• In the offseason, he had a microdiscectomy back surgery to correct a herniated disc in his lumbar spine (low back). While this is considered to be a minor back surgery, it should be noted that no back surgery is "minor." Having any spine procedure as a 27-year-old is somewhat concerning, and leads me to wonder how his overall core conditioning is.


• The 2006 season saw Sheets begin the year on the DL due to a posterior shoulder strain.


• Tendinitis of the right shoulder landed him back on the DL in early May. He spent a great deal of time on the DL with this injury—a span of 72 games passed before he returned to action.
  
• A torn tendon in his right middle finger sidetracked his 2007 campaign; he was sent to the DL in July and missed a course of 40 games.


• After returning for a few starts, a minor hamstring strain was enough for him to miss the final eight games of the regular season.


• He has also dealt with an array of minor injuries that did not require much, if any, missed time (right pectoral strain, left groin strain).

I mean aside from the goatee, which seems to be part of the red sox uniform, isn't it a litte off-putting to see Smoltz as a Red Sox after 20 years as a Brave? 20 years? I was four years old 20 years ago, this is kind of crazy. Anyways, as a Yankee fan its interesting to see the contrasting off-season for the rival sox. While we've gone out and bought virtually every big ticket free agent the Steinbrenner money can buy, the Sox in contrast have picked some names off the scrap heap and compiled a great deal of depth in their rotation and the bullpen. With Smoltz, Penny, and Saito as well you have three guys who have great reputations and a long line of success with their previous teams, but have subsequently been discarded because of injury concerns. Now these guys are no sure bets, Smoltz in perticular at 40 years old and a bad shoulder you have to wonder if he has anything left in the tank, but these three are only a year removed from dominant All-Star performances. Take a look at Penny's numbers

Ridiculous picture I know, but man did the Rays get a deal signing Pat the Bat at two years/8mil per. For years Phillies fans have moaned and groaned that this guy was too hot and cold in his hitting and in turn undervalued his true offensive value. In a way I can sympathize, with all the strikeouts and the low batting average, not to mention his atrocious fielding I can imagine it's hard to watch him day to day. But that does not mean at he is not a productive player by any means, let's look at the stats:

(Pictured: my opinion of how cashman could have spent the steinbrenner's money better than 80 million on AJ Burnett)

Now I know that the Steinbrenners have more money that I can ever imagine, I know in reality the money they spend has little impact on me in my daily life. All that said, it makes me unbelievably angry to see them piss away that money on unworthy bastards like AJ Burnett. Now I'm sure he's a fine man and all and now that he's a yankee so I hope he wins every game, but I don't see this working out. Let's take a look at the stats:

Well it seems as though pitching is recession proof. If you haven't heard the Braves, the same team who after trading for Mark Texiera and unloaded the best of their farm system for a one year rental and subsequently traded him claiming poverty just ponied up 60mil for four years for Derek Lowe. While he's a good pitcher, emphasis on good not great, I don't like the move and I especially don't like the contract. Here's his stats as from the last five years.