New York Nine

Baseball the way it was meant to be, down and dirty with brutally honest analysis






















It seems like a long long time ago at this point, but there was a time when Dontrelle Willis and Barry Zito were considered among the elite left handed starters in the game. Zito the 2002 Cy Young Winner with a stunning 23-5 record was seen as one of the great starting pitchers in the American League part of the vaunted Oakland Big Three. Zito dazzled hitters with his big 12 -6 curveball and change and deserving a reputation of one of the games best. Dontrelle too in Florida was making a name for himself as one of the games best young talents after being spotlighted in the 2003 world series and winning the Rookie of the Year. With his funky windup and lovable personality he baffled the national league for a few years, culminating in a 22 win season, but those days of the early 2000s seem like a long time ago. Indeed, both on new teams and new leagues the bloom is gone off the proverbial rose for a few years now much to the dismay of baseball fans and lefties everywhere, but last night brought a glimmer of hope for both. Stellar performances by both Willis and Zito unlike anything they've done in probably years give hope that perhaps they can recapture that former greatness and more importantly become a blessing instead of a burden to their respective teams.
In San Francisco its been a tough go at it for Barry Zito from the get-go. Hoodwinking the Giants ownership into giving him a then record-breaking 126million dollar deal, then a record for a pitcher, it was clear that he was not deserving of such a salary bump even before he signed. Indeed, following his amazing 2002 season there was a clear decline in Zito's performance, his ERA+ dropping from 158 to 134 and then down to 101, 113 and 116 respectively cluminating in no more than 14 wins a season except for one 16 game season, not surpisingly his contract year. Yet despite his seemingly neglible decline, Zito's reputation around the league was still sterling. Indeed, having never been on the DL, logging 200+ above average innings every year he was regarded as one of the most durable ptichers in the game. Additionally he was precieved by many to be the so-called "big game pitcher" pitching well in the postseason with a 3.25 ERA most notably out-dueling Johan Santana in Minneapolis for eight innings in 2006. For sure, he was not exactly worthy of the richest pitcher salary, but he was hardly a stiff, but that's exactly what he was for the first two years in San Francisco. Brought in to be the staff ace, Zito wasn't even rotation worthy for the last place team by the end of last year posting a career worst 5.15ERA and 17 losses to go with it. In short he was just plain awful, worse than league average while the young Tim Lincecum who made less than a fraction he made managed to win 18 and the Cy Young. But it seems to be a new day for Barry, startin out slow and looking very much like the pitcher who lost 17 games, Zito has turned it on as of late, lowering his ERA from 10.00 to 3.82 thanks to several very productive and effective starts, most notably last night where he threw a complete game five hitter (which he still lost thanks the anemic san fran offense) his first since 2003 and is suddendly looking like the dangerous lefty he once was with a very impressive 124ERA+ .
Is this the Barry Zito renaissance? Time will tell on this one, but if he can maintain a level of performance somewhat near this, the Giants are suddenly a pretty dangerous team in the horrible NL west, a team that maybe won't score a lot of runs, but with a rotation of Lincecum, Matt Cain who's been quietly very impressive with his 170ERA+, a hall of famer in Randy Johnson and Johnathan Sanchez, this team has the pitching to shut down a pretty lousy division to a division title.
Dontrelle Wills and his fall from grace was similarly somewhat easily forseen, but the depth of his collapse is similarly shocking. Indeed, in the seasons following his stellar 23 win season his effectiveness seemed to wane as his peripherals diminshed, with his walks jumping from 55 in 2005 to 83 in 2006 that included an insanely high 19 HBP. Additionally his strikouts went down and his homerun rate jumped from a very respectable .4 per nine innings to an astronomical 1.3 in 2007. In short, Dontrelle was losing it and and showing signs that he was no longer the dominant lefty he once was, but the fall that followed his trade to Detroit was sudden and indeed quite sad. Logging only 24 major league innings Willis wasn't even a passable major league pitcher anymore with a 47 ERA+ giving up home runs like it was going out of style and when he wasn't doing that he could never find the strike zone, walking an unacceptable 35 in those 24 innings. So as a result they sent him to the minors, to single A where he was similarly horrible; it was clear something was terribly wrong with Dontrelle Willis, and soon we found out there was. Early this season he was diagnosed with an anxiety disorder, a form of depression much like the one Zach Grienke suffered two years prior, but it seems now that he is on the track back to being a solid major league pitcher, having pitched 6 1/3 of one hit ball. What's more this wasn't against a bunch of stiffs, this was the red hot Texas Rangers, a team that is currently in first in the AL west and is carving up pitching, but the D-Train shut them down in dominating fashion.
Of course for the Tigers, a team paying Dontrelle a whole lot of money for a guy who finally got his first win with the club after two years is nothing but good for the club. A team last year that finished in the cellar of the AL central has leaped to the front of the division thanks to a change of emphasis onto pitching and defense, in which they are now in the top two in the American League effiency, and a healthy and effective dontrelle will only help them stay at the top. It's far too early to get excited about his rebound at this point, as its only one good start, compared to Zito who has several good starts under his belt this year to bring it down over seven runs, but the early results are very promising.
In truth, despite their recent surges there is not a lot of hope for their of these guys to regain their former glory, but at least now there is a glimmer of hope. Both have a great deal of work to do before we start declaring the resurgence of the D-Train and Zito, but for the first time in a long time they gave baseball a reason to believe that they still have something in the tank. Both are still young enough, Zito 32 and Willis 27 where a comeback is not out of the question and both possess the stuff to create the swings and misses necessary to be a good major league starter. It may lead to nothing for either or one or both but at least for one night these two formerly fantastic lefties gave us a taste of what once was.

0 comments:

Post a Comment