To give you an idea of just how crazy I am, I've been asking myself for weeks this question, wanting to write this article but I hadn't made my mind up. I still haven't totally made my mind on the matter, but the fact that I can't wrap my mind around it pretty much explains the Blue Jay season so far, they're good they're hitting well and pitching great, but how? Indeed, if you were to look at this team on paper, there's no way this happens, they should be WORSE than last year, they lost AJ Burnett, their closer BJ Ryan has been hurt and throwing in the mid 80s, Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum are both out for good chunks of the season if not the whole season to start out of the season. Then Jesse Litsch hurts his forearm in his first start and promptly goes on the DL, only to have Rickey Romero their hard throwing lefty joins him there ater hurting his oblique, who the hell is left? After Halladay who's been amazing as usual, Brett Cecil a 22 year old lefty drafted two years ago, Brian Tallet, the old long reliever, Soctt Richmond, and Robert Ray a guy who's never pitched above AA and what's that gottent them? Why only 1st place in the AL east, 2nd in ERA, 1st in batting average against and OPS against, not to mention 1st in batting average and runs, and 3rd in OPS and slugging, you know just one of the best teams in baseball through nearly a quarter of the season, but how? Indeed, its impossible to argue that the Blue Jays have played very well despite losing players left and right, and they clearly are a much improved team from last year, I am still unconvinced that they can stay atop the dog-eat-dog AL East.
One of the most suspect aspects of Toronto's tear thus far is the quality of teams they've played. Indeed, it is no easy task to win more games than the Red Sox, Rays and the Yankees for nearly a quarter of a season regardless, the quality of the teams they have played makes me wonder if they're legit. Thanks to to some screwy scheduling the Jays have played a grand total of seven games against the AL east, three against baltimore which they swept (because hey, its baltimore), three against the yankees at home which they lost two out of three and one against the Sox which they lost. That's not so great for a team that is supposedly the class of the division, albeit in a small sample size. Aside from them their tough road games were against the struggling A's and Angels, Twins and the Indians twice, all of whom have losing records. What's more their strength of schedule is the third lowest in the majors right now, compred to the yankees who have had the third highest. Granted, you could make the arguement that those teams have bad records because they got beat up by the Jays, but they clearly lost to other teams too.
In addition to the scheduling, the pitching has been extremely lucky up this point as well. As I mentioned they Jays have been forced to use whatever pitchers they can get their hands on to pitch for them, and for some reason it keeps working, but a closer look shows they've been more lucky than good. Indeed, Scott Richmond whos 3.77 era is really unsustainable thanks to a very fluky .247 BAiP and Tallet's similarly lucky .227 say to me that they're getting by smoke and mirrors and this can't keep up forever. Additionally, Robert Ray has an ERA over 6 and Brett Cecil while very good thus far 1.80 ERA striking out 15 and walking 4 in 20 innings, he is very young and unproven, and as a consquence is prone to the ups and downs all rookies deal with it. Of course there is always Roy Halladay, arguably the best pitcher in the game and as long as you have him you have a chance to win every fifth day and this year is no different. In nine starts he's won eight times, a league high, striking out 57 in 68 innings to the tune of a 165ERA+, the guy is fucking money. That said, unless something happens and they get healthier, aside from Halladay this is not a playoff rotation and will be exposed sooner rather than later.
Although perhaps not as fluky as an independent league pitcher coming in and pitching to a 3 ERA, the hitting as been similarly fluky thus far into the season. Indeed, to go from fourth place in the AL east to first in runs scored in the entire AL without adding a few big bats a few guys had to come back with numbers that are career best that are not really sustainable. Guys like Rod Barajas, a career .245/.292/.413 are having unbelievably hot starts tearing the cover off the ball at a clip of .313/.346/.487 that really aren't sustainable or believable in the long run. Additionally you have guys like Scott Rolen, a guy who's been a great player, but has played more than 115 games only once in the last six years is also off to a hot start .312/.377/.452 but at 34 it seems highly unlikely that he will all of a sudden become the picture of health on the wrong side of 30. However there are some bright spots in the lineup that should be taken seriously, like the emergence of Adam Lind. A masher in the minor leagues who gets on base and hits for power, at 25 he has finally been given regular at-bats and is showing his prowess with the stick to the tune of a 125 OPS+, a guy like this is here to stay for awhile. Similarly the re-emergence of Aaron Hill is legit, although he probably is going to be sustaining that .343 average, he's not walking all that much as seen by the eerily close .370OBP. Throw in a healthy Vernon Wells a slumping but still dangers Alex Rios and a career year from Lyle Overbay, this is a lineup that should not be taken lightly.
In truth this is not a bad team by any strech, nor was it last year with the best run differential in the bigs that theoretically should have given the Jays a 93 win season, but it is clearly not as good as advertised as they sit comfortably atop the AL East. Of course, you bring back some more consistent major league pitching like McGowan and Marcum, a little more ABs from Lind and Travis Snider a promising young rookie hitter who can mash with the best of them, you're talking about a team that is loaded with talent to win, but not right now. For certain, it is a testament to the rest of the team to be succesful despite such bad luck with injuries and to just keep winning and scoring runs and pitching well no matter who's on the mound, but baseball is a sport about the long run, the 162 game season, and the pitching is not built to sustain the rigors of it. Of course, I could be totally wrong and they could just keep beating the odds all the way to October just as the Rays did, after all its not the first week of the season anymore. Still, even with the best pitcher in baseball, they're better, clearly not a fourth place team anymore but not quite ready to take on the big guys yet for supremacy of the best division in baseball.
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