New York Nine

Now I don't pretend to know the intimate details of the Angels’ organization and talent. After all, the Anaheim Angels since winning the 2002 World Series title have been one of the more successful and productive teams in all of baseball, winning five division titles this decade built on Mike Scioscia's aggressive brand of baseball based on pitching, defense and pushing the action as much as possible. To be sure, the guys running the Angels seem to know what they’re doing, probably a lot more than I do. And the Angels have been quite deft at making adjustments when they lose key players, last year losing Mark Teixera to the Yankees only to somehow manage to be as good if not better this year, demolishing the much-hated Red Sox in four games; their talent for adaption is quite clear. Having said all of this, and considered there is a possible method to the Angels’ madness that I don’t see, I find it very unlikely that their recent moves will be regarded as smart. Indeed, for those who haven’t kept up, there has been a lot of turnover on the Angels’ roster, first losing their dynamic third basemen Chone Figgins to the division rival Mariners, and then losing their best pitcher, John Lackey to the Boston Red Sox. For certain, these two players were some of the more talented and indeed valuable to the success of Angels’ baseball, so how do they respond? First by signing the 36 year old Hideki Matsui, a DH with two bad knees and Fernando Rodney, the Tigers closer with 37 saves, but 4.40 ERA, this is how they respond? While still a talented team, the Anaheim Angels seem to have taken a serious step backwards and put their ability to defend the AL West Title in serious doubt.

In regard to the designated hitter spot, the Angels have been somewhat lacking in production these days thanks to the decline of Vladimir Guerrero. Once one of the games’ most feared hitters, age and injuries have slowed Vlad’s bat speed and in turn seriously hurt his productivity. Limited to only 100 games last year, Vlad still hit .295, but had a meager OBP of .334 and slugged only .460 with 15 home runs. Not terrible numbers, but for a DH a OPS+ 104 (100 being league average) is simply unacceptable for a team that hopes to contend for a World Series Title. Consequently, the Angels managed to lure the World Series MVP away from the Yankees for a measly $6.5million for a pretty significant upgrade. Last year batting .274/.367/.509 with 28 home runs, Hideki at the age of 35 had one of his best seasons to date, providing clutch hitting and protection for the other big hitters in the Yankee lineup, but there are serious questions whether Matsui can duplicate these numbers away from Yankee Stadium. Indeed, Hideki’s home and road splits through OPS+ are quite dramatic, hitting an impressive OPS+ 157 at the New Yankee Stadium, but hitting a pretty pedestrian 112 away from the short right porch of the Yankee’s New Digs. Further, as mentioned earlier, Hideki is going to be 36 at the beginning of the 2010 season and is not exactly the picture of perfect health. With two knees that have to be drained throughout the season, Matsui’s days of playing the field are long over, thus significantly reducing his usefulness. Matsui is not a bad player by any stretch, and in truth he’s been one of my favorite Yankees since he came over in 2003, but this is not exactly a slam dunk signing for Anaheim.


While Hideki’s value may be slightly better than Vlad’s, what is more pressing is the issue of the loss of Figgins and how that impacts the Angel’s offensive attack. In truth it may seem unfair to compare Matsui’s value to Figgins considering the comparative size and length of their contracts (Figgins got a five year deal to Matsui’s one) what is plain is that the signing has been the only significant move to bolster their offense since allowing Figgins to leave. As such, we must compare the net gains and loss of talent for the team to adequately determine his value. Although not as powerful as Matsui, Chone provided Scioscia with a great deal of versatility with his all-around play. With the ability to play every position on the field except catcher and pitcher, Figgins’ provides above average defense anywhere he plays. In addition, Figgins exhibits an exceptional eye at the plate, walking 101 times last year, giving him a .395OBP further increasing his value, and when he’s on base he’s productive, stealing 42 bases and only getting caught 17 times. To be sure, while not without his flaws, Chone Figgins is a player with considerable tools and his loss will is a significant one; the question remains, how will the Angels be able to replace those tools, if at all? From what I can see Matsui, while a nice signing is not enough to make up for the loss of both Guerrero and Figgins and it would be foolish to think so. Perhaps Angels GM Tony Regins is confident that prospect Brandon Wood or Howie Kendrick can make up for the loss, but neither has the track record or shown an ability to stay healthy or hit at a major league level. Wood in particular, once a highly touted prospect, has shown a lack of knowledge of the strike zone at the major league level, posting a .192/.222/.313 line, striking out 74 in 230 ABs. A small sample size for sure, and he’s only 25, but the results so far don’t give the Angels much hope that Brandon can even come close to Figgins’ productivity.

In the next section I’ll cover Fernando Rodney and the loss of John Lackey, but at least here it seems the Angels offense will not be nearly as potent as it was last season. While replacing Vladimir with a more productive player, the loss of Chone cannot be understated and will be severely felt in all facets of his game. Figgins may not be the only productive player in Anaheim, but expecting to replace his value on a hope and a prayer is unrealistic. While the other players in the Angels system may turn out to be good there’s no guarantee that it will happen and if it does winning the AL West won’t be so easy.