Of all the topics that have been discussed in the Yankee Universe these last few weeks, Johnny Damon and his status with the team has been the most hotly discussed by fans everywhere. Coming off a remarkable postseason run, including one of the oddest and smartest baserunning moves I’ve ever seen in Game 2 of the World Series, fans generally have strong feelings on veteran outfielder. Damon has been one of those guys fans like to have on their teams, excellent hitter who works the count and can steal some bases, but probably more specifically he’s been a great “clubhouse guy.” To be cliché Johnny has always been a player that looked like he was having fun out there, always with a smile on his face and a hop in his step, and fans responded to his excitement for the game and bubbly personality. But it seems that despite his prodigious contributions to the team, Cashman and the Yankee management decided that Johnny was too expensive, instead choosing to go with the speedy Brett Gardner along with Swisher and Granderson, as well as recently signing Randy Winn to be the backup; was this the right move, or are the Yanks just being cheap? Time will only tell whether opting to move on from Johnny Damon will pay off, and while I’ll miss seeing him play I can see why they did it.
I mentioned above that Johnny is a veteran outfielder, and at 37 it’s easy to see that his best days are behind him. Indeed, especially on the defensive end, Johnny has clearly lost a step since he first signed with the team and it has affected his range significantly. Signed originally as a centerfielder, Johnny was quickly moved to left field in his second year and every year his numbers in the field have worsened. After starting strong in left field with a respectable UZR of 7.5, his numbers have trended downward to last season when he a horrible -9.2, and an even more embarrassing -12.1 UZR/150, a number that ranked Johnny as the worst left fielder in the game. Similarly, the other defensive stats are equally unkind to Johnny, most notably, RngR or Range Runs Above Average went down from 7.0 to -3.7 (zero is league average for both stats). Of course, defensive metrics are still not a perfect measure of a player’s ability, but when you watch Damon it’s pretty plain that Johnny is no longer an effective defensive outfielder. Time and time again Johnny was not able to get to balls that he should have, and all those missed opportunities add up to extra runs for the other team, and this is something the Yankees could not afford to live with anymore. Compare this to Brett Gardner’s numbers, where he posted an impressive 9.5 UZR and an even more impressive UZR/150 of 69.5, a number that was the best in the game (yes you read that right, Brett Gardner of all people, the dude who’s like five feet tall and kind of looks like a cro-magnon man, was the best defensive centerfielder in all of baseball according to UZR). Some fans may not feel that defense is that important, but it is clear that the Yankees do. A run saved is as good as a run earned, and by eliminating Damon from their roster the Yankees should be much better in this regard.
Of course, defense is only half of the story, and offensively Johnny has been a vital cog in the Yankees hitting machine during his tenure. Putting up impressive OPS+ numbers the last two years of 118 and 126, Johnny has been excellent in all facets of hitting, particularly last year when he hit a respectable .282/.365/.489 line last year while hitting in the leadoff spot. He hit for power, hit for average, and probably most importantly he got on base and produced runs, with 107 last year. And yet while these numbers are impressive, there are serious concerns as to whether he can keep that up. Indeed, looking at Damon’s home and road splits last year, it seems plain that those numbers have been significantly inflated by playing half of his games in cozy Yankee Stadium, posting a 136 OPS+ last year, while only 117 on the road; can Damon expect the Stadium to be so forgiving next year? Further, entering his age 37 season, there is reason to believe that those numbers will only get worse next year, with several projection systems including those by CHONE and Bill James both anticipating his home runs will go down from 24 to 17, as well as a steep decrease in batting average. Again, projection systems are not an exact science at this point, but there are many reasons to believe that Damon won’t be able to keep up his production in the years to come. Johnny has been battling injuries the last few years, and as he gets older those injuries will only get worse as he gets older. What’s more, while it’s easy to forget this now after the postseason, but Damon was clearly showing signs of breaking down by the end of the season, after starting off hot with a 154 OPS+ in April down to a dismal 82 OPS+ in September. This could just be a bad month, but this is the kind of breakdown that the Yankees want to avoid. An old team already, the Yankees just didn’t want to add another old player to their roster who’s susceptible to injury. Thirty-sesven may not be that old in the real world, but in baseball it’s practically ancient.
Finally, it may be hard to imagine, but it seems the Yankees already have their Damon replacement in a younger and more athletic Curtis Granderson. I’ve already written about Granderson’s prowess in the bat and the field, but to recap Curtis is a guy who should be able to easily replace Damon’s impact for a lot less money than he was making. Although he’s coming off an off year where he only hit .249/.327/.453, the project systems by Bill James and CHONE are very favorable to Curtis, both seeing his batting average jump back up to a more respectable .280 and still showing a lot of power, hitting 27 home runs and 11 triples, that’s pretty solid. He’s not Johnny Damon exactly, but Curtis is a guy who brings a lot to the table, and only 29 years old he should be a productive guy for a long time.
Reading the rumors and speculations about the contract negotiations it’s hard to say whose fault it is that a deal couldn’t be made, but it seems clear that from the beginning the Yankees just weren’t that determined the sign Damon. While he would clearly help the offense and there may be times that the Yankees will miss his production, it’s pretty apparent that Damon is not worth what he thinks he is, that being 15million a year for two years. Damon’s glove has diminished greatly over the last three years, and combined that with a bat that may not be as good as it used to be gives us a guy that just isn’t a great player anymore. I know that I will miss seeing Johnny play for the Yankees, but I am also confident that the plan the Yankees have in place will make them a better team. It may not be the most popular move among Yankee fans right now, but it’s a move that the Yankees needed to do to continue to improve and keep up with the rest of a very dangerous AL East.
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