New York Nine

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It is very common for baseball writers and fans alike to decry the financial dominance of the have’s of baseball over the have-nots.  With teams like the Red Sox and Yankees seemingly grabbing every big name free agent out there, so many people like to say that these teams use their financial muscle to dominate the game and make it impossible for the small market teams to succeed.  But this line of thinking is short-sighted and in truth overlooking the vast wealth of talent available in the draft and the international market, two areas where the small market teams thrive and prosper.  After months of speculation following Chapman’s defection from Cuba, it was widely accepted that the Yankees or Sox would undoubtedly sign the talented young lefty for an ungodly sum, but instead it was Cincinnati who signed Chapman to a five year $30 million dollar deal today who vastly improved their already promising young staff.  Although Chapman is very raw, the Reds just signed themselves a potentially excellent young starter who has the talent to become one of the league’s best.
Unfortunately for stat heads like myself, there is really little or no statistics on the 21 year old, but it is plain to see Chapman’s immense talent.  Tall and lanky, Chapman throws easy gas from the left side in the mid-90s that reaches as high as 101mph at times.  In addition to his great fastball, Chapman features a wicked slider that falls off the table and is very hard to pick up for a left-handed hitter.  To be sure, Chapman clearly has all the tools to succeed in the majors, but there are questions about his control and his makeup that don’t make the signing a slam dunk.  Indeed, in the few times Chapman has faced top-flight competition the young lefty has shown serious problems for commanding the strike zone, particularly in the World Baseball Classic final where he pitched 6.1 innings and allowed only two hits and struck out eight but also walked four.  This is small sample size for sure, but certainly indicative of the young lefty’s talent and misgivings as a pitcher.   Further, there have been issues whether Chapman can maintain his electric stuff for six or seven innings, with several scouts saying that his velocity has been known to drop considerably in the late innings, suggesting that Aroldis’ future lies in the bullpen as a closer, a development that would make his value considerably less great.
In addition to the stuff on the field, there have been other issues that put into question Chapman’s ability to make it in the Show.  After defecting from Cuba, Chapman signed with the Hendricks Brothers’ Agency who were instrumental in helping the young lefty complete the legal process of getting out of Cuba and getting becoming eligible for free agency this off-season.  However, right before the MLB off-season started Chapman suddenly dropped the agency for another agency despite all the help he had given them.  Further, there have been many reports of Chapman’s immaturity and questionable makeup.  Chapman has already made it clear he doesn’t want to be a reliever and has been called un-coachable by some experts.
Although Chapman is no sure bet as a prospect making it in the majors I like this move a lot for the Reds now and for the future.  It would seem unlikely that Chapman would make the Opening Day rotation, and there are obvious questions as to whether he can live up to the hype, the Reds very astutely spent their money on the most talented pitcher on the market for a price much lower than guys like John Lackey, who doesn’t have nearly as great stuff as the young lefty has.  Personally, I’m happy to see a small market team be smart with their money and get a really talented pitcher.  He’s a prospect and all prospects come with some risk, but a guy like Chapman and his arm are worth the risk, and he could make an already young and talented rotation even better.

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