This time of the year is always the hardest to find anything decent to write about in the world of baseball. Only weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting in spring training (thank God), teams have pretty much finalized all their important roster spots, and all the important free agents have signed deals by this point (Cough cough Johnny Damon Cough). All of this adds up to a pretty boring few weeks for a sports fan who doesn’t have a team in the Super Bowl and doesn’t give a shit about basketball and hockey like me. Thankfully, there are a few interesting under the radar stories going on in baseball that to the untrained eye may appear to be unimportant, but in actuality could be a great indicator of what’s to come in the next few years. One such case is the upcoming arbitration case of Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants. Lincecum, only 25 and coming off his second straight Cy Young Award, is easily one of the best pitchers in baseball already and is finally eligible for a raise via arbitration. However, if the reports about the initial offers are correct, it seems that it’s getting pretty ugly pretty quickly between the two parties. Lincecum is asking for $13 million for this season, a number that would obliterate Ryan Howard’s prior record of $10 million, but the Giants are trying to lowball him with an $8 million offer. Now to you and me normal people $8 million sounds like a pretty sweet deal, especially when you consider this would be a significant increase from his $400,000 salary last year, but the Giants’ decision to be cheap now could hurt them in the long run. Bad feelings from a hard fought arbitration could ultimately push Lincecum away when it comes time for free agency, and the Giants can’t let that happen because he’s simply too good to lose.
A lot has been written by the wiry right hander in major sports periodicals, but it’s truly difficult to understate how absolutely sick Tim Lincecum is at pitching. At 5’11” and 170 pounds, Lincecum certainly doesn’t strike the average person as really intimidating, but few pitchers in the history of the game have so thoroughly dominated the game from the get-go as he has. Drafted in the first round out of Washington University, Lincecum was in the majors after only pitching an unheard of 62 innings in the minor leagues because he was simply outclassing hitters. In those 62 innings, Lincecum struck out 104 hitters, only gave up 26 hits and walked 23; that’s ridiculous. It’s hard to emphasize how unprecedented this level of dominance is, but consider for a moment that Jon Lester, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, and CC Sabbathia all pitched at least 450 innings before they were ready to handle the rigors of major league pitching. Little Timmy Lincecum was ready in 62 innings and never turned back.
After getting to the majors, most pitchers go through a period of adjustment to major league hitters due to the dramatic jump of talent they’re facing; the same cannot be said about Lincecum. Only 22 years old at the time, Lincecum came up to the major league roster and dazzled hitters with his blazing fastball and his wicked curve. In 146 innings, Lincecum struck out 150 while only walking 65, to the tune of a 4.00ERA. He kept hitters to a crazy .228 batting average and gave up only .7 home runs per nine innings, and here’s he crazy part, he was even better than those numbers say. FIP or fielding independent pitching, put Lincecum’s ERA at only 3.63, suggesting that if Lincecum didn’t have bunch of bums defensively like Barry Bonds playing for him he would have been even better. To be sure, it’s very rare that you see a pitcher dominate this well so early, and the scary part is he got a lot better.
Expectations were high for Lincecum in 2008 and it’s pretty easy to say he exceeded those expectations and more with his first Cy Young Season in only his first full season in the majors. In 227 innings, Lincecum managed to win 18 games for an absolutely atrocious Giants team thanks to his utter dominance on the mound. Lincecum struck out 265 men that year, while bringing his walk rate down from 4.0 per nine to 3.3 per nine and his WHIP from 1.28 to 1.17. Fangraphs.com valued his performance at an astounding 7.5 wins above replacement player and a salary $33.7million that year, and it’s easy to see why. The guy just embarrassed hitters out there, and earned himself national acclaim for it.
One would think that Lincecum would be due for some sort of speed bump or sophomore slump going into 2009, but in fact he just keeps getting better, how is this possible? Tim lowered his ERA to 2.48, lowered his walks again from 84 to 68, and lowered his WHIP to 1.05 thanks to his improved changeup, a pitch that baseballanaylsts.com lists as the most effective pitch in baseball last year, and it’s his third pitch! Although he only won 15 games last year for a similarly shitty Giants team, Tim got the Cy Young, and it’s hard to argue with the voters on this one. The best pitcher in the National League just got better, and just because his team has a bunch of stiffs that couldn’t muster a few runs to get him the wins they couldn’t let his prodigious deeds go unrewarded.
Okay, so I’m sure you’re wondering still “well that’s all well and fine, but why does he deserve the highest arbitration number in baseball history? $8 million is nothing to scoff at, and it’s the best for a pitcher ever, what gives?” To be sure, an award of $8 million would be nice, and even if the arbitrator split the difference at say $10.5 million you couldn’t feel all that sorry for the guy, but the point is this guy is historically great on so many levels, why try to piss him off? Despite years of bungling drafts and trades by signing veteran guys and getting older and older ever year, the Giants stumbled upon a guy who’s dominance is arguably in the same pantheon of some of the all time greats like Koufax in ’66 or Pedro in 99’; you managed to get this right, isn’t it worth the extra $5million to ensure that he stays happy and wants to stay in San Francisco? This guy’s potential is unlimited, already one of the top five pitchers in the game at 25, this is the guy you spend money on, this is the guy that is worth overpaying for, but the Giants don’t seem to get it. I for one feel sorry for the Giants fans, because Lincecum has already expressed his displeasure with the Giant’s handing of these negotiations and it’s hard to argue with him. He’s been the best or among the best wherever he’s been and deserves every penny he wants.
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