New York Nine

As an ardent believer of sabermetrics and the study of baseball by the numbers, it is usually easy for me to see through the power of the statistics whether a move is good or not to a reasonable degree most of the time. Indeed, the study of baseball through statistics has reached a point in precision that guys like Bill James or Rob Neyer can usually determine pretty reasonably who has the tools to succeed and who does not. And yet despite my strong belief of the validity in the numbers, there are times when I look at the numbers and everything seems like it's right and it should work out, but my gut can't be convinced. Although I've fought hard to shed myself of prejudices of baseball that come through appearances and small sample sizes, sometimes there are things that won't let you shake the sinking feeling that this just isn't going to work, something feels wrong; it is these very feelings that I have when I heard about the trade for Javier Vazquez. In a trade completed today, the 33 year old right-hander will be making his return to the Bronx in return for Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, a lefty reliever prospect and Arodys Vizcaino, and while the numbers suggest that this is a great trade I can't help but feel like this is a mistake. Fair or unfair, my indelible image of Vazquez will always be Game Seven of the now famous 2004 ALCS when Vazquez gave up the grand slam to Johnny Damon.

As I mentioned before, the numbers to this deal suggest that it's a steal for the Yankees and I want to believe it. Despite the fact Javier has bounced around on three different teams since he was traded in 2005 by the Yankees for Randy Johnson, Vazquez has been very good and at times great in that span. Averaging 213 innings a season, Vazquez has also had a 110 ERA+ in that time, averaging a very impressive 8.7 K/9, as well as a very decent 1.203 WHIP and 8.6 hits per nine innings. Second only to Randy Johnson in this decade in strikeouts, Vazquez has shown he can make guys swing and miss quite effectively, among the best in the game even, all while not walking a ton of guys and his only knock being really he gives up a few too many dingers. To be sure, when you look at these numbers in a vacuum it's a great move anytime you can get a guy of this caliber for so little to be your fourth starter! It's not enough that Vazquez is good by himself, but the fact that he will no longer be required to be a top of the rotation guy which he has been asked to do everywhere else he has been significantly increases his value to the team. Slotted behind CC, AJ, and Andy, Javy will not be asked to save the day for us as he was when we brought him and Kevin Brown in that horrible 2004 season. Further, at only nine million, Javy is somewhat of a steal for the Yankees when compared to the likes of AJ and CC's monstrous deals and for a considerably shorter time. For sure, from an objective standpoint there is very little to not like.

The deal for Vazquez is made even sweeter when you consider how little they gave up in return to get the talented right-hander. Mike Dunn, a left-handed reliever who has a good fastball and little else has shown below average control and little else while already on the wrong side of 25. Having already pitched 375 minor league innings, Dunn pitched a pretty pedestrian 3.62ERA with a 1.34 WHIP over his career. Granted, Dunn has also struck out 390 batters in that time, a pretty impressive number, but there's nothing to suggest that he's anything more than okay.

The other prospect of the deal is Arodys Vizcaino and while he's better than Dunn its unclear as to how good he'll actually be. Indeed, only 19, Vizcaino has one of the best live arms in the minor leagues right now, featuring a high 90s baseball and decent breaking stuff, Vizcaino did quite well for himself in rookie ball last year, striking out a very impressive 11.06 per nine innings with an equally impressive 1.16 WHIP in 44 innings. For sure, this is dominating stuff, but how much can you deduce from 44 innings of rookie ball? While Vizcaino has a good an arm as anyone right now, and was highly regarded in the Yankees farm system (number four overall by fangraphs), there remain a multitude of questions as to whether he will make an impact in the bigs. Only 19 years old, a lot can happen between now and when he's ready for the majors, like an arm injury or anything. This is a good pickup for the Braves and while it may hurt to lose the depth in the farm system, Vizcaino's future as a pitcher is far from certain making him expendable to the win-now Yankees.

Then you have the only sure-fire major leaguer in the deal of Melky Cabrera. At best, in his five seasons of work at the majors, Melky has been a league average centerfielder, posting an OPS+ of 99 last season with a .274/.336/.416 line, with a great arm and average range at all three outfield positions. At his worst, there are few who looked as bad at the plate at times as Melky, the season before Melky limped to the minor leagues with a 68 OPS+ and some of the most dreadful at bats you'll see by anyone on any level of baseball. While this can probably fly on a so-so team like the Braves, having a guy like this just isn't going to cut it for the Yankees so in truth they aren't missing much. Having already got Curtis Granderson in the fold and the emergence of Brett Gardner as one of the top defensive center fielders in the game (tops in UZR 150 last year in all the majors) Melky and his so-so bat is expendable and in fact probably had to go with two other centerfielders already. Throw in the fact that as a Super Two player (arbitration eligible after less than two years of service) and due for another sizable raise, moving Melky for a pitcher of Javy's caliber is a bit of a no-brainer.


To be sure, the numbers here and many more show a pretty clear cut case of a victory for the Yankees. Yet again, GM Brian Cashman has shown himself to be a deft baseball man, using his vast financial resources and a strong sense of sabermetrics to improve an already solid team significantly without giving up much. But as much as these numbers are enticing, and everything on paper says I should love this move, but I can't help but cringe a little bit at the thought of seeing Vazquez back in pinstripes. I realize that I'm being an irrational fan here, but I fear that seeing Vazquez back in the Bronx will only conjure up bad memories of the past. Sure 2004 is a long time ago and since then we've "exorcised" the demons by winning it all this year, but the moment of game seven doesn't go away. I remember very clearly where I was when I watched that game and I could almost draw shot for shot the mammoth grand slam Damon hit off him and the anguish I felt afterwards. Granted, it's not like Vazquez single handedly lost that game for us, after all he wouldn't have been in that game at all had Kevin Brown not shat the bed earlier in the game, but the moment is a microcosm of his time in the Bronx that season. Through his first 18 starts, Vazquez went 10-5 with a 3.56 ERA. He struck out 81 in 104.2 innings and sported a 3.12 K/BB ratio. In the second half, though, everything fell apart for the right-hander. He went 5-6 with a 5.79 ERA and found himself pitching in relief in the playoffs. While at times Vazquez was good if not great for us that year, ultimately Javy let us down when it mattered most. Javy later revealed that his ineffectiveness was due to a tired shoulder, a problem that he has not had since, but it would be tough to call his short stint in New York a successful one. Of course this was only one bad season, and since then Javy has shown himself to be a very good starter in the AL and NL alike, but it will be an uphill battle for me to believe in Vazquez again after breaking my heart that cold October night in 2004.


Still worse for me personally is the loss of Melky Cabrera, a guy who may have not been the best, but was one of my favorites as a Yankee. There was no good reason for me liking Melky from a numbers standpoint, and I can't count how many times I've seen him look bad or embarrassing beginning with his forgettable callup in 2005 (which was memorable if you're a Red Sox fans who enjoyed seeing Trot Nixon of all people have an inside the park home run) but he's just always been one of my guys. Melky came up during a particularly bad and boring time on the Yankees the next year and in many ways breathed some life into an old team. In contrast to everyone else on the team, Melky seemed to be having fun out there, exhibiting exuberance at every turn, making great acrobatic catches like the one on a potential Manny home run in the eighth inning seem routine. And while the numbers show a guy who just wasn't that good, I always felt like there was flashes of true talent beneath the surface for Melky. Whether it be a great at-bat against a great pitcher, or a surprisingly long home run, or even hitting for the cycle against the White Sox this year, Melky always seemed to be a step away from realizing his potential. But more than anything, there seemed to be something intangibly great and likeable about the guy. I know I sound cliché saying this, but there was just something you couldn’t help but like about the guy, and perhaps his failings made his successes all the more sweet for me as a fan. He wasn’t a great player by any means, and already 25 going on 26 the chances of him becoming an above average player are slim and none, but I always enjoyed watching him play and he will be missed.

None of these are really good baseball reasons for me not liking the move, but they are for me. While I love studying baseball numbers and how they play out on the field sometimes the subjective experience is too strong or too indelible to simply forget like they are here for Javy and Melky. I trust Cashman knows what he’s doing and if his track record has shown us anything it’s that he is an astute baseball man and I hope that the move works out, but I don’t have a good feeling about it. I hope that my gut is wrong about this and Javier Vazquez can be the reliable fourth starter that he’s capable of, but after a painful exit in 2004 it wouldn’t surprise me much if he failed at that.