New York Nine

Well I was planning on making my grand return to blogging with a more ambitious piece about the end of the season, but it seems Mr. Cashman has forced my hand by making a blockbuster deal for one Curtis Granderson. Now mind you I’m in law school now, I basically have no time with my finals starting tomorrow, where every minute is precious, but I’ll be damned if I didn’t spend a solid two hours refreshing mlbtraderumors.com hoping for something final on the potential of landing one of my favorite non-Yankees in the prime of his career. To be honest I’m downright giddy right now, and when you spend your days and nights memorizing the principles of res ispa loquitur and promisory estoppel it’s very hard to get worked up about anything, but only the Yankees can bring out such unbridled enthusiasm in me. Indeed, if you haven’t heard the Yankees, Tigers and the Diamondbacks pulled off the biggest trade of the off-season thus far, with the Diamondbacks getting Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, the Tigers getting Dan Schlereth (son of famous TV football analyst/douchebag extraordinaire Mark), Max Scherzer, Phil “I love giving up home runs” Coke and the much ballyhooed Austin Jackson. For sure, lots of talent exchanged hands, but like most trades everyone wasn’t a winner, and at least at first glance my Yankees and the Tigers seem to make out like bandits.

Starting off with the Tigers, Detroit here seems to have gotten a decent haul for two guys they were looking to move their salary in the worst way. Clearing at least ten million easy between losing the contracts of Granderson and Jackson (depending on what he gets for arbitration), the Tigers did an excellent job getting a slew of talented cost controlled guys in return for their big names. Max Scherzer the big starter in the trade is a young tantalizing starter with great stuff but some durability issues. Featuring a mid 90s fastball and a good slider that are hard to pick up with a herky-jerky windup, Scherzer in his first full season showed flashes of dominance, striking out 174 in 170 innings while walking 63, with a respectable 4.12ERA and 111ERA+. For sure, for a guy in his first full season in the majors, battling injuries that resulted in a dip in velocity, not to mention playing on a shitty team with a lousy offense, you could do a lot worse.

Then we have Austin Jackson, the highly touted centerfield prospect from the Yankees. I’ve been following Jackson for some time now and while I’ve loved his talent and potential, it seems there are some serious questions as to what he will do with potential. Ranked as high as number twenty two by Baseball America in all of baseball, a converted basketball player has exhibited great speed and athleticism, but his bat has been inconsistent. After flashing serious power in low A ball for the Yanks slugging over .550, Jackson skyrocketed through the farm system making it all the way to AAA by age twenty one, but since then has shown signs of regression. Starting the season off in blazing fashion hitting .344 with moderate power Austin regressed dramatically, falling all the way to .304 but more importantly with an OBP of only .345 and slugging a measly .405. Now this wouldn’t be horrible except for his alarming strikeout rate of whipping a troubling 123 times in 500 at bats. Striking out over a 100 times is alright, but if you’re slugging .405, it portends for trouble for the young centerfielder when he gets to the majors. For sure, major league pitching having no fear of his power will have no problem throwing him hard stuff over the plate and Austin will likely see his strikeout rates jump even higher. So while I’m sad to see such a talented guy who and possibly blossom with the Tigers, Jackson has some glaring concerns.

From here you have Daniel Schelerth and Phil Coke, two hard throwing lefties in the pen, and here the Tigers made off well here too. Schelerth in limited time showed flashes of brilliance as well striking out 22 in 18 innings of limited work, and shows promise. Coke on the other hand, to put it lightly is a bum. With a good fastball and little else, Phil gave up an excruciating 1.50 home runs per nine innings, as a reliever! Throw in his inning in the World Series where he gave up two home runs and I say good riddance. Still, as a lefty middle reliever the Tigers could do a lot worse, and will certainly be useful and likely less homer-prone in Comerica Park.

The Diamandbacks’s haul in comparison is not nearly as impressive. Edwin Jackson, to quote Keith Law “has number one starter stuff with number five starter control” and it has shown throughout his career. Bouncing around on several teams while only 26, Jackson seemed to have gotten it together this year early on, making the All-Star team, but it seems as though it was a mirage. Striking out 161 in 214 innings, he walked over seventy. Additionally, while pitching in one of the best pitchers parks he still gave up over a home run every nine innings and 8.4 hits per nine. Now while his ERA+ 127 is pretty good, the problem here is that he’s being valued as a number one type starter, and his peripherals don’t seem to suggest that. Add in the fact that’s he’s already arbitration eligible and he’s only under control for two more years the move is kind of puzzling when you’re giving up a talent like Scherzer who is under control for five more years and that same kind of strikeout guy. Of course, Jackson has the stuff to be effective in a good pitchers park and a weak division, but when you consider what you had to give up for him, the reasoning is dubious at best.

Ian Kennedy is an even more unimpressive pitcher acquired in the trade from the Yankees that makes the Diamondback’s move mystifying. While Kennedy was an impressive minor league pitcher at times, exhibiting excellent control and the ability to strike out guys, it remains to be seen whether his fringy stuff will translate to the majors. Indeed, in his limited stints in the majors Kennedy has been underwhelming at best, last year getting batted around to the tune of an ERA over eight, and seemingly losing his pinpoint control. What’s more, as some may know already, Kennedy has also gotten a reputation as being an unwilling student of the game, frequently appearing flip and even arrogant in the face of failure, unwilling to change or try to adapt to change his approach against more advanced major league hitters. While there is still hope for Kennedy, after all his minor league numbers are quite impressive (winning minor league player of the year in 2008), but the early signs on the young righthander are not promising. Of course, a move to the far easier competition of the NL West will help Kennedy, and he has a chance to be a reliable back end starter, but it’s far from a slam dunk.

Finally, we have the Yankees and their heist of Curtis Granderson. As I said before, I’ve always admired Granderson as a player and his all around play in center field, exhibiting power, speed, as well as a defensive prowess, and adding him in the prime of his career is a great move for the Yankees. Posting the highest OPS+ of all major league centerfielders since 2007 with 129, as well as a 5.1 UZR and an 80% success rate in stealing bases, Granderson has shown himself to be a true five tool player in every sense of the term. Now, Curtis is not without his faults, particularly his horrendous lefty splits .210/.270/.344/.614, and a sort of down year for him that saw his batting average and on-base percentage slip, but there is evidence that suggests he has room for improvement. Indeed, much like Swisher did last year, Granderson was plagued by an abnormally low BABIP of .273, a number much lower than his career in the .320s. Such a low number suggests that Curtis was a victim of a lot of bad luck, and as Swisher showed us last year, statistical aberrations on BABIP usually correct themselves and we’ll see a bounce-back to his career norms. Further, Granderson posted career high 30 home runs that as I mentioned before in one of the worst hitters parks in the league. Put Granderson in the cozy confines of the New Yankee Stadium for half of his games that is perfectly suited for his lefty pull swing, I see big things for the talented centerfielder. And that’s not even mentioning the fact he’s going to be near the top of one of the best if not the best lineup in baseball, its hard not to see him succeeding in pinstripes.

Overall, I think that the Tigers and the Yankees made out very well here, but it is far from certain. After all, for the Diamondbacks to trade such a talented young right-hander with more years of control, you have to wonder if there’s something about him we don’t about. Maybe he’s destined to just be a reliever as some people have mentioned, or maybe with that wacky delivery he’s a career ending injury waiting to happen. What’s more, as I mentioned earlier, Austin Jackson’s talent may not translate to the majors and he could end up being a bust, or Granderson’s off year might be the beginning of a decline instead of just a bump of the road. It’s impossible for there to be any certainty on who will be the ultimate winner of this trade, but at least for the Yankees this seems this was a move that will help them now and for years to come. Adding a guy like Granderson will only make you better, and in truth Jackson’s ceiling was never as high as what Curtis is already, so for a team that wants to win now it’s the obvious move. Throw in the fact that they didn’t give up anything else that can’t be replaced easily, it’s a move that the Yankees couldn’t resist. I for one know I will thoroughly enjoy watching Curtis man centerfield for the Yankees for the foreseeable future.