Well my attempt to make my own 30 clubs in 30 days kind of fell flat on its face, so I figure I'll just throw out my predictions for each division and why, here it goes.
NL West
1. Diamondbacks
2. Dodgers
3. Rockies
4. Giants
5. Padres
Sorry, even with Manny, losing your two best starters and your closer, and I'm supposed to believe that they're better? No thanks. Diamondbacks are young but maturing and a staff that added Jon Garland as a fourth starter is a solid move, watch out for them come October.
NL Central
1. Cubs
2. Reds
3. Cardinals
4. Brewers
5. Pirates
6. Astros
You can never count the Cardinals out and I could easily see me eating my words and them making in as a wild card, but the Reds' young pitching to go along with veterans Harang and Arroyo are too good to not be second, albeit a relatively distant second from a dominant Cubs team.
NL East
1. Mets
2. Marlins (WC)
3. Phillies
4. Braves
5. Nationals
Sports Illustrated picks the Amazins to win it all and its hard to not like the Mets, they had one glaring hole, the bullpen, and they've made that it a strength. It's not a rock solid team, but unlike most teams this year there's no aspect of the team thats truly awful. The Phillies are good, but too much good luck went their way last year for it to be sustainable, can they really expect such an amazing performance from their pen again? Not likely. Besides, that Marlins pitching staff is crazy talented and their lineup has serious power, watch out.
AL West
1. A's
2. Angels
3. Mariners
4. Rangers
I don't like this division at all really, while picking a team to win a division with a staff as inexperienced as these guys is really dicey, that Angels team is just very underwhelming. Between Lackey hurt, Santana possibly going for Tommy John, question marks with Escobar and how much he can contribute, and Saunder's inevitable let down year (he doesnt strike out anyone, that will catch up to him very soon) and their even shittier lineup than last year I can't take them. Then again judging by the rest of the division's pitching, they could sleepwalk to the division.
AL Central
1. Twins
2. White Sox
3. Indians
4. Royals
5. Tigers
I really don't get people's take on this division, pretty much everyone is picking the Indians and I don't get it. Cliff Lee's season last year is an abberation, Fausto Carmona doesn't strike enough guys out to be effective and their third starter is Carl Fucking Pavano, can you REALLY expect anything from him? That's not a playoff rotation there, sorry. The Twins are not a sexy pick but they've got solid starting pitching, with Liriano coming back to full strength to mow down guys again and a lineup that has vastly improved with the presence of Joe Crede. The White Sox I don't love but Kenny Williams is a fantastic GM and he's made his team younger and cheaper with a solid front three of the rotation of Buerle, Danks and Floyd and the emergence of Alexi Ramirez at short.
AL East
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees (WC)
3. Rays
4. Blue Jays
5. Baltimore
I'll probably devote an article to this to explain it more fully, but even as a Yankee fan I'm hard pressed to say right now that the Yankees are better than the Sox. While the lineup is probably better and the Yankees rotation has gotten better, the Sox still have a far superior bullpen and depth in their rotation that is unrivaled, I mean John Smoltz is their 6th starter! That said, I think the Yankees will keep it close, with Tampa slightly behind. While I love the Rays, they're a great story and I love to watch them, a lot of things had to go right for them to burst out for 97 wins last year, perticularly their stellar bullpen performance. I don't see that being duplicated, especially with Troy Percival as their closer and that should keep them out of the playoffs, at least for this year, after that all bets are off.
I'm not making postseason predictions beacuse as the last few years have shown the playoffs are a fucking crapshoot, with teams getting hot at the right time anyone can win, although if I had to pick the teams that I think are the best from either league, my money would be on the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox. More on all of this as the season progresses.
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About me
Just an out of work lawyer looking for work and spending the rest of my time reading, writing and taking everything I can in about the game I love, baseball.
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Some Key Terms to Know When Reading
I throw around a lot of numbers and stats so I figured I should probably explain some of them:
wOBA - a new one I'll be using, short for weighted on-base average is essentially an improvement on OPS. Scaled to average OBP (with .330 the league average) wOBA more properly weighs on-base percentage higher than slugging percentage and more accurately weighs extra base hits (a double isn't worth double of that of a single which is what SLG does) to give a better picture of a batter's worth.
.000/.000/.000 is the industry shorthand for the split stats for batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order, these are some of the more commonly used stats to indicate how productive a hitter is.
OPS - shorthand for On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging is becoming more in vogue in the mainstream media to get a better idea of the raw production of a hitter, instead of saying how often they get a hit OPS shows how productive those hits are.
BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in play, its pretty much what it says, how often that a batter puts in ball in play that it becomes a hit, its a stat that shows if a hitter is just having a lot of bad luck or a hot streak is just fluky. For instance a BABIP of .200 is considered unlucky its not that he's not hitting, he just isn't hitting where the fielders are not there.
OPS+ - as the name implies, OPS+ is OPS but with adjustments to park effects and other outliers to normalize the data. Indeed, as most people know some parks are harder to hit at than others, which this stat compensates for, 100 being the baseline of league average
wOBA - a new one I'll be using, short for weighted on-base average is essentially an improvement on OPS. Scaled to average OBP (with .330 the league average) wOBA more properly weighs on-base percentage higher than slugging percentage and more accurately weighs extra base hits (a double isn't worth double of that of a single which is what SLG does) to give a better picture of a batter's worth.
.000/.000/.000 is the industry shorthand for the split stats for batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order, these are some of the more commonly used stats to indicate how productive a hitter is.
OPS - shorthand for On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging is becoming more in vogue in the mainstream media to get a better idea of the raw production of a hitter, instead of saying how often they get a hit OPS shows how productive those hits are.
BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in play, its pretty much what it says, how often that a batter puts in ball in play that it becomes a hit, its a stat that shows if a hitter is just having a lot of bad luck or a hot streak is just fluky. For instance a BABIP of .200 is considered unlucky its not that he's not hitting, he just isn't hitting where the fielders are not there.
OPS+ - as the name implies, OPS+ is OPS but with adjustments to park effects and other outliers to normalize the data. Indeed, as most people know some parks are harder to hit at than others, which this stat compensates for, 100 being the baseline of league average
WAR - Wins Above Replacement, as its name suggests, provides an exact number of wins a particular player is worth above what your average AAA player, or replacement player would provide in his absence. Although this is a very difficult stat to explain (I don't totally get it personally) the stat is beautifully simple in that it provides a precise value of either a pitcher or hitter to his particular team, which enables teams to monetize their worth and properly assign a dollar value.
ERA+ - similar to OPS+ its a more highly sophisticated way of evaluating a pitcher's performance adjusted for park effects, this also is on a numerical basis with 100 as league average.
FIP - short for fielding independent pitching, FIP measures the only aspects of the game that a pitcher has total control over, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Scaled to ERA, FIP gives a truer indication of a pitcher's true talent by removing the luck apparent with balls in play.
WHIP - Walks and Hits per innings pitched, a little more well known stat, but a good indicator of how effective a pitcher is. Chances are if a guy is walking a lot of guys and giving up a hot of hits, he's not pitching all that well.
xFIP- a variation of FIP which normalizes home run rates as a way to discount aberrational home run rates that are either too high or too low to reasonably sustain.
UZR- Short of Ultimate Zone Rating, this is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined. This is a difficult stat to understand because it's not one of those stats you can figure out at home, because it includes a bevy of factors including park effects and speed. As a consequence, its not a perfect stat, but its the best defensive stat we have. Also seen as UZR/150 is the Ultimate Zone rating per 150 games.
RngR - Range Runs is defined as the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity. Also not a perfect fielding stat, but one of the many fielding stats that help as as fans get a fuller picture of a player's defensive prowess.
ERA+ - similar to OPS+ its a more highly sophisticated way of evaluating a pitcher's performance adjusted for park effects, this also is on a numerical basis with 100 as league average.
FIP - short for fielding independent pitching, FIP measures the only aspects of the game that a pitcher has total control over, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Scaled to ERA, FIP gives a truer indication of a pitcher's true talent by removing the luck apparent with balls in play.
WHIP - Walks and Hits per innings pitched, a little more well known stat, but a good indicator of how effective a pitcher is. Chances are if a guy is walking a lot of guys and giving up a hot of hits, he's not pitching all that well.
xFIP- a variation of FIP which normalizes home run rates as a way to discount aberrational home run rates that are either too high or too low to reasonably sustain.
UZR- Short of Ultimate Zone Rating, this is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined. This is a difficult stat to understand because it's not one of those stats you can figure out at home, because it includes a bevy of factors including park effects and speed. As a consequence, its not a perfect stat, but its the best defensive stat we have. Also seen as UZR/150 is the Ultimate Zone rating per 150 games.
RngR - Range Runs is defined as the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity. Also not a perfect fielding stat, but one of the many fielding stats that help as as fans get a fuller picture of a player's defensive prowess.
About Me
- burnsie77
- Morristown, NJ, United States
- I write and read everything I can about baseball and have some thoughts about it.
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- Some Thoughts on Citi Field
- Jerry, Why the Hell Are You Starting this Guy?
- Wait, The Mariners are Good Now?
- Weekend Baseball Thoughts
- Life can be fleeting
- Tommorrow is another day, but today sucks
- If this guy is your second starter, things aren't ...
- Yeah, like Tex was going to Your Shitty Team
- Cubs picking up where they left off, dominating th...
- The Phillies are offiically on notice, This Mets t...
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- Mets hoping Sheff can boost an punchless outfield
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Blog Archive
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▼
2009
(123)
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▼
April
(20)
- A Royal Gets His Due
- Bill James' gives us yet another gem
- This is Why National League Baseball is Awesome
- David Ortiz gets things started in Yanks-Red Sox
- The Great Yankee Stadium Crisis
- What's Wrong With Wang?
- Some Thoughts on Citi Field
- Jerry, Why the Hell Are You Starting this Guy?
- Wait, The Mariners are Good Now?
- Weekend Baseball Thoughts
- Life can be fleeting
- Tommorrow is another day, but today sucks
- If this guy is your second starter, things aren't ...
- Yeah, like Tex was going to Your Shitty Team
- Cubs picking up where they left off, dominating th...
- The Phillies are offiically on notice, This Mets t...
- CC Stinks Up the Joint
- The New York Nine Predictions
- Our Long National Nightmare is Over, Opening Day i...
- Mets hoping Sheff can boost an punchless outfield
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April
(20)
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