New York Nine

I was actually going to write about something else, but I happened to turn on the TV and behold one of the my favorite baseball movies was on, Major League (it's not my favorite, I have a definitive list in my head, but that's for another day). When you think about this movie its really so ridiculous, it came out in 1989 and it is every bit a product of the 80s from the cheesy music all over, the bad hair styles, corny lines and a sappy ending, but the movie is better than people give it credit. I mean you have a great cast, from Tom Berenger at his badass zenith coming off movies like Platoon (if he had that scar all the time that would be even more badass) and Born on the Fourth of July, Charlie Sheen at top of his game, both acting and hairstyle wise, Corbin Bernsen who plays an excellent movie douchebag, not to mention an young Welsey Snipes and Dennis Haysbert (I couldn't watch 24 without thinking "I say fuck you joubu I do it myself") , and a still hot Rene Russo. That's a hell of a cast for a a movie about the freaking Indians. And of course you have the incomprable Bob Uecker in all his drunken glory giving you the play by play throughout. I mean you put all those together and how could you not have an awesome movie? If you haven't seen this movie somehow I strongly reccomend renting it, seeing it on Comedy Central or some other network just really takes away from the delightful raunchy-ness of this film. And yet at the core of the movie, once you get past the 80s-ness of it its a well done baseball movie with some hilarious moments in the locker room and on the field, all culminating in a dramatic and ultimately satsifying finale complete with some intense slow-mo camera and some great twists and turns. There is also two sequels to this movie, each successively worse than the previous one, but you have to see this movie if you're a real baseball fan because its just plain fun to watch. Nothing like a little baseball, albeit fake baseball to let me forget that its ten degrees out still.

Now it is only mid-January. There is still a possibility that the market for Sheets is still biding its time before they make him an offer that comes somewhat close to being worthy to his talents, but from what I hear around the rumor mill it isn't good for Mr. Sheets, but why? Only six months ago he was the National League starter for the All-Star game, one of his four appearances before his 30th birthday, dazzling hitters with his high-powered fastball and his knee-buckling curveball. And yet here he is, mid-January and it seems as though no one wants to touch the guy with a ten foot pole, but why? Let's go to the stats:

Year	Tm	Lg	G	GS	ShO	W	L	ERA	S	Op	H	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP				HR
2004	MIL	NL	34	34	0	12	14	2.70	0	0	0	237.0	201	264	32	4	0.98				25
2005	MIL	NL	22	22	0	10	9	3.33	0	0	0	156.7	142	141	25	2	1.07				19
2006	MIL	NL	17	17	0	6	7	3.82	0	0	0	106.0	105	116	11	2	1.09				9
2007	MIL	NL	24	24	0	12	5	3.82	0	0	0	141.3	138	106	37	1	1.24				17
2008	MIL	NL	31	31	3	13	9	3.09	0	0	0	198.3	181	158	47	1	1.15				17

Now as you can see, one of the more glaring red flags is his innings over the course of these stats and even before that, but what I think is important here is the nature of his injury problems. Here is a breakdown of his, um breakdowns

• In 2005, he sustained what was termed a "viral infection" of the inner ear, and missed 30 games due to dizziness and altered balance.


• A torn latissimus dorsi muscle in his right shoulder occurred in late August and ended his season.


• In the offseason, he had a microdiscectomy back surgery to correct a herniated disc in his lumbar spine (low back). While this is considered to be a minor back surgery, it should be noted that no back surgery is "minor." Having any spine procedure as a 27-year-old is somewhat concerning, and leads me to wonder how his overall core conditioning is.


• The 2006 season saw Sheets begin the year on the DL due to a posterior shoulder strain.


• Tendinitis of the right shoulder landed him back on the DL in early May. He spent a great deal of time on the DL with this injury—a span of 72 games passed before he returned to action.
  
• A torn tendon in his right middle finger sidetracked his 2007 campaign; he was sent to the DL in July and missed a course of 40 games.


• After returning for a few starts, a minor hamstring strain was enough for him to miss the final eight games of the regular season.


• He has also dealt with an array of minor injuries that did not require much, if any, missed time (right pectoral strain, left groin strain).

A fair amount of injuries for sure, but what is important is there is no real consistent nagging problem. Unlike a guy like say, AJ Burnett, who's injuries are almost entirely elbow-based, Sheets' injuries seem to be a more case of just bad luck. A hamstring injury here, a back injury there, and Sheets gets the dreaded "injury prone" tag. This is in contrast to a Burnett who has had elbow problems for years and you can pretty much bank on him having eblow problems as he gets older becuase well, you just don't heal as well as you get older. Now I'm not saying its entirely undeserved, but Burnett, my proverbial straw man here, is also injury prone, but like Sheets he's coming off a big year and parlayed that into a big payday, why can't Sheets do the same? The reality of it seems to be the the timing of his injury, right at the end of the season in the heat of a pennant race his tricep gave him problems and forced him to miss some crucial games down the sterech. He did try unsuccessfully to come back for a start and so his very productive season, nearly 200 innings, a tidy 3.09ERA 185ks to only 47 walks seems to have fallen to the wayside, but why? Some have cited the additional tag of a first round draft choice, but that didn't stop the yankees, nor did it stop the braves giving Lowe, a pitcher eight years his senior, a big fat deal, so what gives? I for one cannot understand it, I have heard mururs that his pesky "injury prone" tag is hurting him, but the reality of the situation is he's proven to be less injury prone than Burnett, averaging more starts, less nagging injuries and younger! There are many teams out there that would benefit greatly from having an arm like Sheets in their rotation, I had hoped that would have been my team, but alas we already have our injury prone pitcher quota filled. A team with some money to spend should jump on this opportunity because right now his value is apparently very low where you can sign him for a reasonable deal for only a few years, I'll bet you could even get away with a two year deal if you wanted to. Because all this talent is just sitting here waiting to be picked up and to show again that he is very much the pitcher that can dazzle you with brilliance, injury prone or not.

I mean aside from the goatee, which seems to be part of the red sox uniform, isn't it a litte off-putting to see Smoltz as a Red Sox after 20 years as a Brave? 20 years? I was four years old 20 years ago, this is kind of crazy. Anyways, as a Yankee fan its interesting to see the contrasting off-season for the rival sox. While we've gone out and bought virtually every big ticket free agent the Steinbrenner money can buy, the Sox in contrast have picked some names off the scrap heap and compiled a great deal of depth in their rotation and the bullpen. With Smoltz, Penny, and Saito as well you have three guys who have great reputations and a long line of success with their previous teams, but have subsequently been discarded because of injury concerns. Now these guys are no sure bets, Smoltz in perticular at 40 years old and a bad shoulder you have to wonder if he has anything left in the tank, but these three are only a year removed from dominant All-Star performances. Take a look at Penny's numbers

ear	Tm	Lg	G	GS	ShO	W	L	ERA	S	Op	H	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	SLGA	BFP	Pit	HR	TB	ER	DP	SB	CS	PO
2004	FLA	NL	21	21	0	8	8	3.15	0	0	0	131.3	124	105	39	3	1.24	.386	545	2098	10	192	46	15	13	4	0
2004	LAN	NL	3	3	0	1	2	3.09	0	0	0	11.7	6	6	6	0	1.03	.333	45	189	2	13	4	1	1	0	0
2005	LAN	NL	29	29	0	7	9	3.90	0	0	0	175.3	185	122	41	3	1.29	.417	738	2784	17	286	76	15	17	5	1
2006	LAN	NL	34	33	0	16	9	4.33	0	0	1	189.0	206	148	54	9	1.38	.430	813	3234	19	318	91	25	20	8	2
2007	LAN	NL	33	33	0	16	4	3.03	0	0	0	208.0	199	135	73	5	1.31	.359	865	3227	9	275	70	30	14	5	0
2008	LAN	NL	19	17	0	6	9	6.27	0	0	0	94.7	112	51	42	3	1.63	.465	426	1690	13	171	66	14	8	3	0

Now I know what people are going to say "hey he's injury prone, weren't you just moaning and groaning about another former marlin with an injury history signing with the yanks?" Yes true, but the difference is the Red Sox are buying low, signing him to a one year deal with no lost draft pick like how the yankees' lavish spending on Burnett that meant not only five years of paying Burnett, but giving up a draft pick to the Blue Jays. Simply put, if he sucks, well you weren't depending on him to giving you innings anyways and you just kick him to the curb and you're out of 5 million, big deal. If he comes anywhere to near approximating to his performance in the last few years, well they've got themselves a steal on their hands. Same thing with Smoltz

Year	Tm	Lg	G	GS	ShO	W	L	ERA	S	Op	H	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	SLGA	BFP	Pit	HR	TB	ER	DP	SB	CS	PO
2004	ATL	NL	73	0	0	0	1	2.76	44	49	0	81.7	75	85	13	0	1.08	.363	323	1142	8	111	25	10	2	1	0
2005	ATL	NL	33	33	1	14	7	3.06	0	0	0	229.7	210	169	53	1	1.15	.363	931	3298	18	314	78	19	10	6	0
2006	ATL	NL	35	35	1	16	9	3.49	0	0	0	232.0	221	211	55	9	1.19	.393	960	3535	23	347	90	22	10	4	0
2007	ATL	NL	32	32	0	14	8	3.11	0	0	0	205.7	196	197	47	4	1.18	.375	853	3062	18	295	71	10	11	4	1
2008	ATL	NL	6	5	0	3	2	2.57	0	1	0	28.0	25	36	8	0	1.18	.367	117	449	2	40	8	1	1	0	0

I don't think I'll get any argument that those are some pretty decent numbers from a sure-fire hall of famer and one hell of a competitor. Of course those numbers do come with conditions, like the fact that he's 40 and you have concerns whether he'll ever be completely healthy but again, if you can take a flier on John Smoltz, why wouldn't you? If he's not healthy and he can't pitch, you're out 5.5mil, but if he is healthy, well that's a pretty damn good sixth starter in the second half of the season.


Now I'm sure for many sox fans these guys are little consolation for the fact that they missed out on the big prizes, namely mark texiera, but as the rays showed us this year to win in this league you need pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Guys get hurt all the time thats the nature of the game and if you don't have the arms to replace them, as in the case of the yankees, you're going to be searching your rolodex for the sidney ponsons of the world. Instead the sox have two guys who can come into their rotations and potentially do more than just man the ship, but who can actually come in and dominate, and they have the pedigrees and the history to back that up. Especially with the World Baseball Classic looming and Lester and Dice-K putting extra stress on their arms with innings in march and april I wouldn't be the least bit suprised if they need those guys down the road. Time will tell, but I think these low risk, high-reward moves will pay off, nicely done Theo.

Ridiculous picture I know, but man did the Rays get a deal signing Pat the Bat at two years/8mil per. For years Phillies fans have moaned and groaned that this guy was too hot and cold in his hitting and in turn undervalued his true offensive value. In a way I can sympathize, with all the strikeouts and the low batting average, not to mention his atrocious fielding I can imagine it's hard to watch him day to day. But that does not mean at he is not a productive player by any means, let's look at the stats:

Year	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG					GDP	OPS
2004	PHI	NL	127	534	448	66	115	17	0	24	84	2	0	100.0%	78	130	.257	.365	.455					10	.821
2005	PHI	NL	154	669	562	78	158	27	1	32	117	0	0	N/A	99	160	.281	.389	.504					12	.892
2006	PHI	NL	144	567	462	80	119	24	1	29	95	0	0	N/A	98	131	.258	.388	.502					11	.890
2007	PHI	NL	155	598	472	77	121	26	0	30	97	0	0	N/A	114	120	.256	.400	.502					10	.902
2008	PHI	NL	157	645	536	74	134	33	3	33	86	0	0	N/A	102	136	.250	.367	.507					10	.875

The guy just knows how to hit, and walk and do other things I'm sure, but all of this for 8 million is a steal. Granted, he's moving away from one of the best hitters parks in the league which should reduce his power a bit, he still carries tremendous value. He walks a ton, a skill which he has improved upon in the last few years, he hits home runs at a healthy clip giving him an OPS near .900 year in and year out. In addition he doesn't hit into a lot of double plays, averaging a little over 10 a season! It seems clear that the rays have used the bad economy to their advantage getting all this value for relatively little dough. Consider these numbers compared to jose guillen who pretty undeservedly got 3 years/36million last year

Year	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG						OPS
2004	LAA	AL	148	621	565	88	166	28	3	27	104	5	4	55.6%	37	92	.294	.352	.497						.849
2005	WAS	NL	148	611	551	81	156	32	2	24	76	1	1	50.0%	31	102	.283	.338	.479						.817
2006	WAS	NL	69	268	241	28	52	15	1	9	40	1	0	100.0%	15	48	.216	.276	.398						.674
2007	SEA	AL	153	659	593	84	172	28	2	23	99	5	1	83.3%	41	118	.290	.353	.460						.813
2008	KC	AL	153	633	598	66	158	42	1	20	97	2	1	66.7%	23	106	.264	.300	.438						.738

Now you can accuse me of cherry picking one of the worst contracts out there for a guy who just plain didn't deserve it, both guys were considered mid-level quality free agent sluggers upon hitting the market. look at the comparative numbers, the guy SLGs a good 60 points lower and evidently hasn't seen many pitches he doesn't like with that god-awful OBP of .300 last year. As a yankee fan this move scares me a bit because especially with Pat the Bat DH'ing most of the time so you don't have to worry about his mis-adventures in left field you have a potent right handed hitter who crushes left handers (I'm looking at you CC) who can take you out of the park at any at-bat and produces runs year in and year out.


On a side note, I'm going to enjoy seeing more of this guy around if only for the stories and the legend around Pat Burrell. One not so G-rated story in particular, as told to me by a co-worker who's a huge Phillies fan, is hilarious. According to him a female friend of his was down in Clearwater for spring training to watch the Phillies and was fortunate enough to enjoy the company of Pat in the back of his car. As the story goes the whole time he would yell at her, "you're fucking Pat Burrell, you're fucking Pat Burrell!" I have no way to confirm this story, but you have to appreciate the sheer fact that this story is fairly believable speaks volumes to the fine character of one Pat the Bat.

(Pictured: my opinion of how cashman could have spent the steinbrenner's money better than 80 million on AJ Burnett)

Now I know that the Steinbrenners have more money that I can ever imagine, I know in reality the money they spend has little impact on me in my daily life. All that said, it makes me unbelievably angry to see them piss away that money on unworthy bastards like AJ Burnett. Now I'm sure he's a fine man and all and now that he's a yankee so I hope he wins every game, but I don't see this working out. Let's take a look at the stats:

Year	Tm	Lg	G	GS	ShO	W	L	ERA	S	Op	H	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	SLGA	BFP	Pit	HR	TB	ER	DP	SB	CS	PO
2004	FLA	NL	20	19	0	7	6	3.68	0	0	0	120.0	102	113	38	4	1.17	.344	490	1816	9	152	49	11	14	5	2
2005	FLA	NL	32	32	2	12	12	3.44	0	0	0	209.0	184	198	79	7	1.26	.334	873	3296	12	259	80	28	24	6	1
2006	TOR	AL	21	21	1	10	8	3.98	0	0	0	135.7	138	118	39	8	1.30	.413	577	2171	14	216	60	18	18	4	1
2007	TOR	AL	25	25	0	10	8	3.75	0	0	0	165.7	131	176	66	12	1.19	.362	691	2649	23	221	69	19	31	0	0
2008	TOR	AL	35	34	0	18	10	4.07	0	0	0	221.3	211	231	86	9	1.34	.388	957	3650	19	329	100	14	22	9	5

I mean aside from the strikeout rate, which really isn't even amazing what about these numbers say "you know, this guy really deserves a lot of money, and for a long period of time, like five years, I'm sure this will be a worthwhile investment"? He's topped 200 innings three times in his career, incidentally two of them were contract years (shocking). He had tommy john surgery several years ago and his eblow has plagued him ever since on and off, and truth be told even when he is healthy he's really not even that impressive. His career ERA is only slightly over 4, his WHIP is around 1.3, and he's never been an All-star, never been in the top ten for cy young voting! And this guy is an "Ace"? Indeed, I fear that the power that be in the Yankee Universe instead chose to ignore those factors and instead focus on small sample sizes and subjective experince. Consider, in this past year in 38.1 innings against the yankees Burnett sported a nice 1.64ERA with 43 strikeouts and only 6 walks. Those are some damn good numbers, esepcially against a team with an offense like the yankees, but should that be everything? Sure, on a given day Burnett can be absolutely electric, pumping a brutal high 90s fastball and dropping that hammer curve, when he's on there are few that are better, but he's rarely "on" let along healthy. He's 31 years old, I don't see him getting any more durable as he gets older and he's shown to be injury prone, except when he sees those dollar signs flashing, who is to say he won't do the same for the next five years? I have no problem with the yankees spending money, I'd have a tough time being a yankees fan if I didn't, but spend the money judiciously! If you want to piss away money I'll be glad to take it off their hands.

Well it seems as though pitching is recession proof. If you haven't heard the Braves, the same team who after trading for Mark Texiera and unloaded the best of their farm system for a one year rental and subsequently traded him claiming poverty just ponied up 60mil for four years for Derek Lowe. While he's a good pitcher, emphasis on good not great, I don't like the move and I especially don't like the contract. Here's his stats as from the last five years.

ear	Tm	Lg	G	GS	ShO	W	L	ERA	S	Op	H	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP
2004	BOS	AL	33	33	0	14	12	5.42	0	0	0	182.7	224	105	71	8	1.61
2005	LAN	NL	35	35	2	12	15	3.61	0	0	0	222.0	223	146	55	5	1.25
2006	LAN	NL	35	34	0	16	8	3.63	0	0	0	218.0	221	123	55	5	1.27
2007	LAN	NL	33	32	0	12	14	3.88	0	0	1	199.3	194	147	59	1	1.27
2008	LAN	NL	34	34	0	14	11	3.24	0	0	0	211.0	194	147	45	1	1.13

Not terrible for sure and certainly durable, but does this really scream "hey this guy deserves 15 million a year"? Upon further review you have to wonder how much he really helped from pitching about half of his games in one of the best pitchers parks in the game, dodger stadium, consider this His ERA has definitely benefited from playing in Dodger Stadium. he's had a pretty pronounced difference in his splits each of the last 3 seasons (2008 was particularly skewed - 2.30 at home, 4.42 on the road). 2005 was the only year he posted a better road ERA (3.48) than home ERA (3.74). So while he does have many admirable traits, particularly his ability to keep the ball in the park only 14 home runs allowed last year, who's to say that won't go up now that he's not pitching in Chavez Ravine? Now he'll be pitching more games at the bambox that is Citizens Bank Park where he didn't fare so well last year as well as other less pitcher friendly parks. Further, he's moving from the abomination that is the National League West to the NL east with three teams, the marlins, mets and phillies (the Nats don't count) that have actual lineups with some fairly dangerous hitters with the likes of Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Chase Utley and so and so forth. Still worse, he's 36! And you've got him for four years! You really think he's going to continue this level of consistently a year older and without the benefit of an extreme pitchers park? Especially when he's 40? So with Lowe their rotation stands as:


Lowe
Vazquez
Jurigens
kawakami
(hudson in the second half)

Is that really better than their competition? Is it better than the phillies or even the mets? I dont think so. Their offense outside of chipper and mcann (and kotchman to an extent) is pretty pedestrian. I predict another third or fourth place team.