New York Nine

Baseball the way it was meant to be, down and dirty with brutally honest analysis

Friday, January 29, 2010

Some Thoughts on Johnny Damon


Of all the topics that have been discussed in the Yankee Universe these last few weeks, Johnny Damon and his status with the team has been the most hotly discussed by fans everywhere.  Coming off a remarkable postseason run, including one of the oddest and smartest baserunning moves I’ve ever seen in Game 2 of the World Series, fans generally have strong feelings on veteran outfielder.  Damon has been one of those guys fans like to have on their teams, excellent hitter who works the count and can steal some bases, but probably more specifically he’s been a great “clubhouse guy.”  To be cliché Johnny has always been a player that looked like he was having fun out there, always with a smile on his face and a hop in his step, and fans responded to his excitement for the game and bubbly personality.  But it seems that despite his prodigious contributions to the team, Cashman and the Yankee management decided that Johnny was too expensive, instead choosing to go with the speedy Brett Gardner along with Swisher and Granderson, as well as recently signing Randy Winn to be the backup; was this the right move, or are the Yanks just being cheap?  Time will only tell whether opting to move on from Johnny Damon will pay off, and while I’ll miss seeing him play I can see why they did it.
I mentioned above that Johnny is a veteran outfielder, and at 37 it’s easy to see that his best days are behind him.  Indeed, especially on the defensive end, Johnny has clearly lost a step since he first signed with the team and it has affected his range significantly.  Signed originally as a centerfielder, Johnny was quickly moved to left field in his second year and every year his numbers in the field have worsened.  After starting strong in left field with a respectable UZR of 7.5, his numbers have trended downward to last season when he a horrible -9.2, and an even more embarrassing -12.1 UZR/150, a number that ranked Johnny as the worst left fielder in the game.  Similarly, the other defensive stats are equally unkind to Johnny, most notably, RngR or Range Runs Above Average went down from 7.0 to -3.7 (zero is league average for both stats).  Of course, defensive metrics are still not a perfect measure of a player’s ability, but when you watch Damon it’s pretty plain that Johnny is no longer an effective defensive outfielder.  Time and time again Johnny was not able to get to balls that he should have, and all those missed opportunities add up to extra runs for the other team, and this is something the Yankees could not afford to live with anymore.  Compare this to Brett Gardner’s numbers, where he posted an impressive 9.5 UZR and an even more impressive UZR/150 of 69.5, a number that was the best in the game (yes you read that right, Brett Gardner of all people, the dude who’s like five feet tall and kind of looks like a cro-magnon man, was the best defensive centerfielder in all of baseball according to UZR).   Some fans may not feel that defense is that important, but it is clear that the Yankees do.  A run saved is as good as a run earned, and by eliminating Damon from their roster the Yankees should be much better in this regard.
Of course, defense is only half of the story, and offensively Johnny has been a vital cog in the Yankees hitting machine during his tenure.  Putting up impressive OPS+ numbers the last two years of 118 and 126, Johnny has been excellent in all facets of hitting, particularly last year when he hit a respectable .282/.365/.489 line last year while hitting in the leadoff spot.  He hit for power, hit for average, and probably most importantly he got on base and produced runs, with 107 last year.  And yet while these numbers are impressive, there are serious concerns as to whether he can keep that up.  Indeed, looking at Damon’s home and road splits last year, it seems plain that those numbers have been significantly inflated by playing half of his games in cozy Yankee Stadium, posting a 136 OPS+ last year, while only 117 on the road; can Damon expect the Stadium to be so forgiving next year?  Further, entering his age 37 season, there is reason to believe that those numbers will only get worse next year, with several projection systems including those by CHONE and Bill James both anticipating his home runs will go down from 24 to 17, as well as a steep decrease in batting average.  Again, projection systems are not an exact science at this point, but there are many reasons to believe that Damon won’t be able to keep up his production in the years to come.  Johnny has been battling injuries the last few years, and as he gets older those injuries will only get worse as he gets older.  What’s more, while it’s easy to forget this now after the postseason, but Damon was clearly showing signs of breaking down by the end of the season, after starting off hot with a 154 OPS+ in April down to a dismal 82 OPS+ in September.  This could just be a bad month, but this is the kind of breakdown that the Yankees want to avoid.  An old team already, the Yankees just didn’t want to add another old player to their roster who’s susceptible to injury.  Thirty-sesven may not be that old in the real world, but in baseball it’s practically ancient.
Finally, it may be hard to imagine, but it seems the Yankees already have their Damon replacement in a younger and more athletic Curtis Granderson.  I’ve already written about Granderson’s prowess in the bat and the field, but to recap Curtis is a guy who should be able to easily replace Damon’s impact for a lot less money than he was making.  Although he’s coming off an off year where he only hit .249/.327/.453, the project systems by Bill James and CHONE are very favorable to Curtis, both seeing his batting average jump back up to a more respectable .280 and still showing a lot of power, hitting 27 home runs and 11 triples, that’s pretty solid.  He’s not Johnny Damon exactly, but Curtis is a guy who brings a lot to the table, and only 29 years old he should be a productive guy for a long time.
Reading the rumors and speculations about the contract negotiations it’s hard to say whose fault it is that a deal couldn’t be made, but it seems clear that from the beginning the Yankees just weren’t that determined the sign Damon.  While he would clearly help the offense and there may be times that the Yankees will miss his production, it’s pretty apparent that Damon is not worth what he thinks he is, that being 15million a year for two years.  Damon’s glove has diminished greatly over the last three years, and combined that with a bat that may not be as good as it used to be gives us a guy that just isn’t a great player anymore.  I know that I will miss seeing Johnny play for the Yankees, but I am also confident that the plan the Yankees have in place will make them a better team.  It may not be the most popular move among Yankee fans right now, but it’s a move that the Yankees needed to do to continue to improve and keep up with the rest of a very dangerous AL East.

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Tuesday, January 26, 2010

A's Take Big Risk with Sheets




Ever since the publishing of Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, Billy Beene and the Oakland Athletics have been the focus of a great deal of praise and criticism.  Working on a shoestring budget in a small market, Beene has been forced to squeeze every bit of talent from every dollar by evaluating players in new and inventive ways, and it has paid off handsomely for Oakland.  Year after year Oakland in the last decade have been perennial contenders, winning a handful of division titles and become mainstays in the AL West, at least until as of late.  With the loss of such stars like Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, and Dan Haren to name a few, Oakland has had trouble finding replacements from within.  As a consequence, the A’s have been forced to try different things to win.  The trend began last year with the surpirising trade for Matt Holliday and it continues this year today with a surprise signing of Ben Sheets, the oft-injured right hander for a surprisingly rich contract of $10 million.  Ten million may not be much for the likes of the Yankees or Red Sox, but this is a big chunk of change for the A’s, and while Sheets is an unbelievable talent, his injury history suggests he’ll be spending more time on the training table than the pitching mound.
As mentioned above, Sheets at age 31 has shown himself to be an unbelievable talent, when he’s healthy.  Featuring a great fastball with good movement sitting around 93MPH and a wicked curveball, Sheets has shown the ability to make guys swing and miss throughout his career, striking out an impressive 7.6 per nine innings while only walking 2.0 per nine.  This ability to get guys to swing and miss so often has made Sheets a rather successful pitcher, averaging a 115 ERA+ for his career, along with four all-star appearances as the ace of the Milwaukee Brewers since 2001.  All of this bodes well for Sheets and the Oakland Athletics, a team that plays in the spacious Oakland Coliseum that has proven to be a pitcher’s park for those who’ve had to play there.  Further, while many National League pitchers have had difficulty to make the switch to the American League, Sheets’ electric stuff suggests that his transition to the junior circuit won’t be too difficult.  All of these factors add up to a pretty solid pitcher for the A’s, but as we will see below this is only part of the story with Sheets.
To be sure, if you ask anyone familiar with Ben Sheets they will tell you it’s not the on-field stuff that’s the problem with Sheets, its staying healthy enough to be there.  While possessing great talent and at times ace-caliber performance, Sheets has been plagued with injuries throughout his career.  Here’s a list of Sheet’s many stints on the DL;
2001: right shoulder tendinitis (DL, missed 46 days)
2005: Vestibular Neuritis (DL, missed 37 days)
2005: upper back strain (DL, missed 36 days)
2006: right shoulder strain (DL, missed 23 days)
2006: right shoulder tendinitis (DL, missed 82 days)
2007: right middle finger injury (DL, missed 45 days)
 Just looking at that list makes me ache.  Now of course, there is reason to believe that Sheets can overcome these injuries.  After all, none of these injuries are arm related, and allegedly his shoulder issues have been resolved after sitting out for the year, but as true as this may be the trend are troubling.  Now in his 30s, history has shown us that as players age they usually don’t get more durable, and there is a lot to suggest that this will only get worse for Sheets. 
For sure, the A’s have taken a sizable risk in signing Sheets to a contract that awards the righty could earn well more than 10million in incentives.  Sheets has shown to a great talent, but is he going to be worth it?  After all, in the past five seasons Sheets has averaged only 120 innings (counting the zero last year) and hasn’t thrown 200 innings since 2004, what can the A’s reasonable expect? Because I respect Beene and what he does in Oakland so much I want to like this deal, but for the cash-strapped A’s this is a puzzling move.  Ten million is a lot to give a guy who’s coming off major shoulder surgery, and it seems to be a risk that Oakland cannot afford to take.  Then again, I haven’t had a book written about me, so maybe Beene knows something I don’t.


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Monday, January 11, 2010

Small Market Reds Nab the Big Armed Cuban Chapman



It is very common for baseball writers and fans alike to decry the financial dominance of the have’s of baseball over the have-nots.  With teams like the Red Sox and Yankees seemingly grabbing every big name free agent out there, so many people like to say that these teams use their financial muscle to dominate the game and make it impossible for the small market teams to succeed.  But this line of thinking is short-sighted and in truth overlooking the vast wealth of talent available in the draft and the international market, two areas where the small market teams thrive and prosper.  After months of speculation following Chapman’s defection from Cuba, it was widely accepted that the Yankees or Sox would undoubtedly sign the talented young lefty for an ungodly sum, but instead it was Cincinnati who signed Chapman to a five year $30 million dollar deal today who vastly improved their already promising young staff.  Although Chapman is very raw, the Reds just signed themselves a potentially excellent young starter who has the talent to become one of the league’s best.
Unfortunately for stat heads like myself, there is really little or no statistics on the 21 year old, but it is plain to see Chapman’s immense talent.  Tall and lanky, Chapman throws easy gas from the left side in the mid-90s that reaches as high as 101mph at times.  In addition to his great fastball, Chapman features a wicked slider that falls off the table and is very hard to pick up for a left-handed hitter.  To be sure, Chapman clearly has all the tools to succeed in the majors, but there are questions about his control and his makeup that don’t make the signing a slam dunk.  Indeed, in the few times Chapman has faced top-flight competition the young lefty has shown serious problems for commanding the strike zone, particularly in the World Baseball Classic final where he pitched 6.1 innings and allowed only two hits and struck out eight but also walked four.  This is small sample size for sure, but certainly indicative of the young lefty’s talent and misgivings as a pitcher.   Further, there have been issues whether Chapman can maintain his electric stuff for six or seven innings, with several scouts saying that his velocity has been known to drop considerably in the late innings, suggesting that Aroldis’ future lies in the bullpen as a closer, a development that would make his value considerably less great.
In addition to the stuff on the field, there have been other issues that put into question Chapman’s ability to make it in the Show.  After defecting from Cuba, Chapman signed with the Hendricks Brothers’ Agency who were instrumental in helping the young lefty complete the legal process of getting out of Cuba and getting becoming eligible for free agency this off-season.  However, right before the MLB off-season started Chapman suddenly dropped the agency for another agency despite all the help he had given them.  Further, there have been many reports of Chapman’s immaturity and questionable makeup.  Chapman has already made it clear he doesn’t want to be a reliever and has been called un-coachable by some experts.
Although Chapman is no sure bet as a prospect making it in the majors I like this move a lot for the Reds now and for the future.  It would seem unlikely that Chapman would make the Opening Day rotation, and there are obvious questions as to whether he can live up to the hype, the Reds very astutely spent their money on the most talented pitcher on the market for a price much lower than guys like John Lackey, who doesn’t have nearly as great stuff as the young lefty has.  Personally, I’m happy to see a small market team be smart with their money and get a really talented pitcher.  He’s a prospect and all prospects come with some risk, but a guy like Chapman and his arm are worth the risk, and he could make an already young and talented rotation even better.

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McGwire? Steroids? No Way.


Steroid news at this point is so old hat I'm weary of even writing about it at this point.  Time after time we find as our heroes from the last two decades were guilty of taking every advantage they could get, and it seems that Mark McGwire is no different.  In truth, this is hardly news at this point (I mean just look at that picture the guy is a beast) but as McGwire is about to take the Cardinals hitting coach job, Mark has been forced to deal with the issue that he so poorly skirted earlier by announcing today that he took steroids throughout his career and I'm glad he said.  Sure he should've done this sooner, but he gave a very impassioned interview and seemed genuinely remorseful about what he did and seems finally ready to move on with his life.  I always liked McGwire he seemed like a good guy and he was a hell of a player, steroids or no steroids; I mean the guy hit 49 home runs his rookie year in the cavernous Oakland Stadium and he hit them early and often.  I hope that someday he gets into the Hall but I'm sure that won't be for a long time if ever because he was a great player.  Steroids or not, McGwire still had to hit those home runs and the steroids can't make anyone hit dingers like he did, and hopefully this admission will lead others to come forward, but I doubt it.

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Friday, January 8, 2010

The Hall of Fame is Turning into the Hall of Seemed Really Great




I have to be honest the whole Hall of Fame situation is so obvious and wrongheaded I almost didn’t write about it. As I was pretending to work and reading all the major sports websites practically every baseball writers, even the dumb ones, (Buster Olney cough cough) were rallying against the Hall of Fame voting system and how flawed it is to the point that it seems that everyone knows this fact. For me to rant and rave about how stupid the system almost seems superfluous because I’m really just preaching to the choir; after all when was the last time you talked to someone and they said “you know I really agreed with all the Hall of Fame inductions.” It’s gotten to the point that I’m starting to feel like it’s a manufactured talking point by baseball writers to create something to write about, and in truth I think I may be more right than wrong and that’s the problem. The Hall of Fame as originally intended was a place reserved only for the best players in the history of the game, not guys who everyone liked or was a great teammate or some subjective shit like that, just the best of the game and whose impact on their era was indelible. Of course this is the ideal of the Hall of Fame, and clearly that ideal is not being met because the people who decide are just that, people, and people are biased. People have their opinions and they have feelings and they want to believe their subjective experiences are important and unfortunately this gets in the way of the truth sometimes. Well it appears that these subjective tendencies have come to dominate Hall of Fame voting where the right people are not getting in and the wrong people are, and this year with what should have been lock first ballot Hall of Famers Barry Larkin and Roberto Alomar didn’t get in and the talented but highly flawed Andre Dawson did get in.


If you were to ask the writers and fans who saw Andre Dawson saw him play they would tell you he’s in the Hall right now because he was an all around talent capable of amazing things anywhere and everywhere. For his career hitting 438 home runs, stealing 314 bases, Dawson was a dual threat on the field and was a dominant player in his era. Along with the those gaudy numbers Dawson had eight All-Star appearances, eight gold gloves, as well as an MVP award in 1987 for the last place Cubs. To be sure, on the surface these numbers would make one think that Dawson is a slam-dunk Hall of Fame candidate, but the problem is those awards are similarly flawed and subjective. Indeed, gold gloves, All-Star appearances and MVP awards are not necessarily given to the best at that particular position because they are based on people’s subjective experiences and those subjective answers and those subjective ideas do not become objective by virtue of a lot of people agreeing on it. What are objective factors in deciding on what makes a good player are the numbers, and the numbers show Dawson to be a talented and very good player, but not a great player. If you haven’t heard, Dawson’s career .323OBP is the lowest on-base percentage of any Hall of Famer by TWENTY POINTS, twenty! Dawson’s OPS+ which adjusts to the park and the league he’s playing in puts Andre’s career number at 119, which is only 19 points higher than a replacement player. To put that in perspective, Bernie Williams, the Yankee centerfielder who by all accounts was a very good player, but not great had a career OPS+ of 123, do these numbers scream one of the all-time greats? Even at Dawson’s zenith in 1987 the numbers aren’t that great, where Dawson clearly benefited from the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field and hit only .247 on the road that season and was 12th in the league in OPS+. Sure Dawson hit 49 home runs that year, but to belabor the point the purpose of a hitter is to impact the game as much he can, and a hitter accomplishes that by getting on base and putting himself in a position to score runs. And while Dawson drove in some runs and drove in himself 49 times, how many runs did he take off the board by striking out over 100 time and only walking 32? Of course there will be many people who will say that walking isn’t the point of the game and that if you saw him play you could see how he impacted the game and I say those people are full of shit. If Dawson was really that great and he really did impact the game like people say he was when you saw him in person, then the numbers would show it. Just because Dawson was flashy and did some things well doesn’t mean he’s a great player, and by all accounts he was not.


Joe Posanski, one of the great voices in baseball today tackled this issue recently on si.com and attributed Dawson’s entry into the Hall because of the era’s lack of truly great players. Playing in an era in the 1970s and 80s when statically there wasn’t a Cobb or Feller or a Ruth, Dawson may not have been on their level in his impact on the game, but for his time he was one of the great players, and I find this reason very unsatisfactory. Posanski goes on how writers who grew up watching these guys from this era need to validate that their childhood heroes were as good as they remember and it is exactly this type of reasoning that is ruining the sanctity of the Hall of Fame. The Hall of Fame is for the best of the game of all time, and just because you saw a guy do some great things in a seminal time in your life does not simply erase the objective facts, and those facts point to Andre Dawson not being as good as those writers would want you to think. This fact may not sit well with some old crusty writers, but it’s not them who I’m worried about, I’m worried about the game and the importance of Hall to the game for all generations and putting inferior players in there along the all time greats is an insult. Maybe I’m taking the importance of the Hall of Fame too much to heart, but something needs to be done to correct this sort of backwards thinking immediately or we will continue to forget what’s really important and what truly makes greatness so great.

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Monday, January 4, 2010

Sox Sign Beltre



Well it seems that the Red Sox really don’t want to rely on Mike Lowell at third base next year, even if it means sitting him and his 12million a year contract on the bench for a better defensive player.  Indeed, with a bad surgically repaired hip that has made him look like a seventy five year old rather than thirty five, Mike Lowell has outrun his usefulness and Boston has signed the defensive wiz Adrian Beltre to man the hot corner for a reasonable one year $9million contract.  While the move is not without risk, particularly in Beltre’s bat and the risk of having to eat Lowell’s contract, Theo and the Red Sox appear to have made themselves much better defensively with little long term risk.
As mentioned above, Beltre is making his money with glove at the hot corner, where he has been among the best in baseball by all accounts.  Over the last four years, Beltre has averaged a rather impressive 12.25 UZR/150 and a RngR (Range Factor) of 9.15 (again zero being average for both measurements).   Compare that to Lowell’s atrocious post-injury numbers last year of a UZR/150 -14.4 and RngR -13.3, it seems clear that the addition of Beltre turns third base from a defensive liability to a strength.  Additionally, Beltre, entering his age 30 season is six years younger than Lowell, something every team wants to do, and at the below market price they got him for this is a steal.
However, there is the other more looming concern for Beltre for his bat that Boston must also consider.  For sure, it seems like a long time ago that Adrian hit .334/.388/.629 with 48 home runs in 2004 and signed a lucrative four year deal with the Mariners because since that year Beltre has been mediocre at best.  After coming in second in MVP voting with an unbelievable 163OPS+ (steroids, cough cough) Beltre has been pretty pedestrian with the stick, posting OPSs+ of 93, 105, 112, 108, and 82 respectively since coming to the American League.  Now granted, Beltre hasn’t been totally useless at the plate, hitting at least 25 home runs three times, but the guy has done little else of value, never posting an OBP of .328 since coming to Seattle.  To be sure, these are not exactly the MVP numbers that ensured Beltre his big payday, but when compared to Lowell’s number they’re actually not as bad as I originally thought.  Maybe it’s just because I’ve seen Lowell hammer my Yankees for the last few years, but I thought his numbers would be more impressive than they actually are, which aside from a big 2007 season where he had an OPS+ 124 the rest of his career in Boston was pretty average, with numbers of 104, 103, and 106 respectively.  These numbers are better than Beltre for sure, but there is at least evidence that by virtue of moving away from the cavernous Safeco Field to the cozy Fenway Green Monster that Beltre will be able to take advantage of much like Lowell did in the last four years.
In sum, I think Beltre could be a valuable addition, but there are still glaring concerns in the Red Sox lineup that Theo Epstein must address.  While Red Sox’s management has vastly improved their defense with the signings of Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre, both players project to be at best nearly as productive as the players they replace and at worse considerably less productive.  It is unclear as to whether the increase in defense will make up for the runs they lose with their bat, but I will go out on a limb and say it won’t.  In the case of Beltre, the Red Sox have put yet another player in an offensive-oriented position with less than stellar numbers to justify playing there.  On paper, Boston may be able to justify the loss of runs by the gain of run prevention, but last year showed that in practice this doesn’t work that well.  While Theo fielded a very good team, any Boston fan will tell you that the lack of a big time hitter like Manny and Ortiz had been in the past hurt them in big spots.  Time and time again, particularly in the series against Anaheim, Boston’s lineup of good but not great hitters were shown to be vulnerable to pitchers who attacked the strike zone and forced them to swing.  So while Beltre is a talented guy who at least has the tools to be a productive player for Boston, the Red Sox still have a long way to go before they approach the depth of the Yankees and their Muderers’ Row lineup.

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Sunday, January 3, 2010

Mets sign Guy They Never Should've Traded in the First Place




If you’ve read this blog before you’re aware of my utter disdain of Omar Minaya and his administration of the Mets the last few years.  I don’t claim to be a Mets fan by any stretch of the imagination, but I’d rather see them do well than do poorly as the other New York team, and it irks me to see him run them by a fucking retard.  Move after move turns out to be bad (signing Oliver Perez for 36million, signing Castillo to a four year deal when no one wanted him for one, ruining their farm system, etc etc) and yet somehow he still has a job, how can this be?  Does Omar have naked pictures of the Wilpons with a goat or something?  I digress.  As bad as the Mets moves have been in the last few years under Omar, I feel that Minaya may have stumbled into a halfway decent move by signing Outfielder Jason Bay to a four year 66 million dollar deal.  Although the move hardly erases the litany of prior terrible moves by the much maligned GM, and there is still much to be done to improve the Metropolitans, adding a player of Bay’s ilk is never a bad move for a team and can only improve their chances in the NL East.
As you may have heard there are numerous voices in the media that loathe the move of signing Jason Bay, particularly Jeff Pearlman of Sports Illustrated.  Pearlman, admittedly a far greater sports writer than I could ever hope to be, claims that the outfielder on the wrong side of thirty is a porous defender and is a bad fit for a Mets team that should be built on pitching and defense. Pearlman argues that the money spent on Bay could have been better spent requiring a starting pitcher like John Lackey or Javier Vazquez or position player like Jose Reyes who can use the spacious dimensions of Citi Field to their advantage by turning doubles into triples.   Usually I would agree with Jeff’s criticism and the Mets certainly could use another pitcher (or four), but Pearlman misses the glaring fact about this team that cannot be ignored; the Mets need a lot of help EVERYWHERE.  Indeed, this is team that has a 150million payroll and yet lost 93 games, the Mets are a team with a payroll that is quite top heavy on a few players and very shallow everywhere else; there is a dearth of talent at the majority of positions on the field.  Thus, to run the risk of being cliché the Mets need some baseball players, guys who are talented and do several things well and bring an offensive spark to their woefully anemic offense.  And as a guy .267/.384/.537 in the toughest division in baseball against the best pitchers in the game, signing Jason Bay is a move that can only make the Mets better.
Bay, 31, as I mentioned above, was formally in the Mets organization as a prospect, bouncing around to a couple of teams until he landed with the Pirates where he became one of the most prodigious and talented outfielders in the game.  From 2004-8, Bay averaged nearly 30 home runs and 100 RBI’s, all while being on easily the shittiest team in baseball.  But more than being simply a slugger, Bay has shown a great eye at the plate, walking 13% of the time his career and swung at pitches outside the zone only 19.4% of the time (compared to the league average of 25%).
 To be sure, the combination of power and discipline have made Jason one of the better hitters in the National League, and this trend continued after being traded to the Boston Red Sox during a mid-season trade in 2008.  Taking over the left field spot hoping to fill the very big shoes of Manny Ramirez, Bay did not flinch in the face of lofty expectations and represented himself admirably, posting a .293/.370/.527 line in 49 games and quickly becoming one of the big bats in the Boston lineup.  And in 2009 Bay continued his hot hitting ways, hitting a career high 36 home runs and a rather impressive 134OPS+ while continuing to be one of the key cogs in the Boston hitting machine.  All of these numbers add up to a very productive offensive player, moving from the hardest division to one of the easier, a league that Bay not only performed but excelled, posting a pair of All-Star seasons, what’s not to like?
However convincing the numbers on Jason Bay are, there are concerns as to whether four years and sixty six million will prove to be a worthy investment in the long term for the Metropolitans.  Indeed, as mentioned above, Bay is not what we would call a defensive wiz, posting downright terrible Ultimate Zone Rating numbers, last year at -13.0, and the two years before being -18.4 and -11.5 respectively (for reference 0 is average fielding range).  Coming into his age 31 season with a pair of balky knees, the defensive metrics suggest that Bay is and will only continue to be a liability to the Mets with his glove in his four years he is under contract.   Of course numbers like UZR and all defensive metrics are not a perfect measure of a player’s defensive prowess, particularly with the quirky left field in Fenway Park, so there is a possibility that he will at least come close to the numbers he had in Pittsburgh where he averaged a 3.0UZR, but there’s no guarantee.  At least from my own subjective experience, Bay is not a particularly defensive outfielder, who along with a real lousy arm should not bring a lot to the table with his glove this year or in the next three for that matter.
Additionally, as great as Bay’s numbers have been, there are concerns as to whether Bay’s power will translate to the cavernous Citi Field.  Moving from the right handed batter friendly Fenway to the distant and high walls of Citi, there is a strong possibility that Jason will sorely miss the Green Monster for filling up the stat sheet.  According to Bill James’ 2010 Handbook Citi Field depressed run scoring eight percent compared to a neutral park, sharply contrasted to Fenway’s 11 percent increase over average.  For sure, one only needs to look at the two parks to suggest that it will be harder for Bay to hit home runs, but this conclusion is hardly a slam dunk.  Indeed, while Fenway’s Monster gives a lot of home runs, it also turns a lot of line drive homes into singles and doubles, and there is a chance that those will turn into home runs in Citi.  Further, he’s moving to a weaker league where pitchers rely on fastballs more, a pitch that Bay kills, compared to the American League that features more breaking balls, a pitch that has been Bay’s Achilles heel.      
In sum, despite what some pundits and naysayers are saying, I think the signing of Jason Bay is a move in the right direction for the Mets (assuming he can stay healthy).  While not a perfect player by any means, Bay exhibits enough qualities in his game to be a valuable player for any team that is fortunate to have him.  I for one will be happy to not see him in the Red Sox lineup anymore, and I think that the Mets fans will come to appreciate Bay’s professionalism and respect for the game.  The Mets and Omar Minaya still have a long, long, way to legitimately compete with the defending NL Champion Phillies, but they could have done a lot worse than Jason Bay.


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Friday, January 1, 2010

Happy New Years from New York Nine



Happy New Years and hope everyone had a great NYE to ring in the new decade. While nursing this hangover I've decided on my resolutions for the New Year, eat better, spend more time in the library, go to the gym when possible and provide you fine readers with as much high quality analysis I can provide while keeping a reasonable GPA. Here's to hoping I can keep that (at least until finals), cheers.

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What is the Angels Plan Exactly? (Part Two)



In part one of my take on the Angels off-season moves we dealt with the loss of Chone Figgins and the addition of Hideki Matsui, and here we are looking at the addition of Fernando Rodney and the loss of John Lackey respectively. Again, the addition of Rodney is not exactly a replacement for Lackey, but as the Angels payroll stands at 113million, almost exactly what it was last year, it seems that Fernando is the only pitcher that will be brought in to fill the void with the loss of John Lackey and what a void it is. As I noted earlier, Lackey has been the de facto ace of the Angels for the last few years and has proven himself to be a valuable and reliable starter, averaging a career 117ERA+ and 219 innings and pitching big games in big spots for the Angels since the 2002 World Series. To be sure, while Lackey’s numbers may not scream “Ace” he has clearly shown himself to be a valuable and an above average starter in the American League in the prime of his career. And yet in the face of losing such a valuable starter what has Anaheim done? Not a thing, well nothing in the starting rotation at least. Instead, the Angels have signed the former Tigers closer to a two year 11million deal, and it seems unclear as to whether it was worth the money.


In his first year s fulltime closer, Fernando Rodney had a season that was deceptively mediocre. On the surface, one could argue Rodney had a breakthrough season for the Tigers in his age 32 season, accumulating 37 saves while only having only blown one opportunity. To be completely literal, Rodney did everything you could ask a closer to do, that being have gone into practically every opportunity to save a game and accomplished just that, but is that really the best indicator of Rodney’s true talent? I for one would argue no, as the rest of his numbers indicate that Rodney is a guy who is more lucky than good. For sure, for a guy who supposedly lives on his electric stuff Rodney’s strikeout numbers took a serious dive the last year, going from an impressive 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings to a pretty pedestrian 7.1. This is most likely the product of a decreased rate of swinging strikes by opposing batters for Rodney, once averaging 11-12% for his career fell to only 9% last season. Such a drop may not seem that big of a deal, but if the subsequent strikeout rate drop are any indication Fernando will have a more difficult time getting betters out.


As if it’s not bad enough that Rodney is striking out less batters, Fernando is similarly walking batters like it’s going out of style. Indeed, never a guy who exhibited great control, Rodney continued his wild ways walking a pretty horrible 4.9 batters per nine innings, as a reliever! Especially when you’re dealing with high leverage situations like the ones closers live and die in, walks can be a pitcher’s undoing, and someone who walks nearly five per nine innings is flirting with disaster with every pitch. Admittedly this is a significant improvement from last year when he had an embarrassing 6.7walks per nine, a career rate of 4.6 suggests that this is not some sort of statistical aberration; the guy just can’t throw strikes.


Add up terrible peripherals like the ones exhibited here by Rodney and you have exactly what you’d think, a pretty lousy pitcher. With an unimpressive 4.40 ERA and 104ERA+ respectively, Rodney has been average at best and shitty at worst. Why is this guy worth 11 million again?


In sum, combined with the signing of Hideki Matsui the Angels in my opinion have made a half-assed attempt at improving their team, replacing valuable assets with marginally valuable ones on the cheap. I think Tony Regins got lucky last year, gambling on Kendry Morales to give him similar production to that of Mark Teixera and getting away it, but such gambles cannot and will not work out this time. Instead of recognizing the immensity of their losses, the Angels seem to be taking their competition for granted and assuming that they have enough talent within to let every high priced free agent walk away without even trying to retain them. Maybe it will work out and maybe they will still manage to squeak by into the AL West division championship, but as the Mariners improve and the Talented Young Texas Rangers have another year of experience under their belts, one can only wonder if the Angels’ gambles will ultimately proof foolish.

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What is the Angels Plan Exactly? (Part One)



Now I don't pretend to know the intimate details of the Angels’ organization and talent. After all, the Anaheim Angels since winning the 2002 World Series title have been one of the more successful and productive teams in all of baseball, winning five division titles this decade built on Mike Scioscia's aggressive brand of baseball based on pitching, defense and pushing the action as much as possible. To be sure, the guys running the Angels seem to know what they’re doing, probably a lot more than I do. And the Angels have been quite deft at making adjustments when they lose key players, last year losing Mark Teixera to the Yankees only to somehow manage to be as good if not better this year, demolishing the much-hated Red Sox in four games; their talent for adaption is quite clear. Having said all of this, and considered there is a possible method to the Angels’ madness that I don’t see, I find it very unlikely that their recent moves will be regarded as smart. Indeed, for those who haven’t kept up, there has been a lot of turnover on the Angels’ roster, first losing their dynamic third basemen Chone Figgins to the division rival Mariners, and then losing their best pitcher, John Lackey to the Boston Red Sox. For certain, these two players were some of the more talented and indeed valuable to the success of Angels’ baseball, so how do they respond? First by signing the 36 year old Hideki Matsui, a DH with two bad knees and Fernando Rodney, the Tigers closer with 37 saves, but 4.40 ERA, this is how they respond? While still a talented team, the Anaheim Angels seem to have taken a serious step backwards and put their ability to defend the AL West Title in serious doubt.

In regard to the designated hitter spot, the Angels have been somewhat lacking in production these days thanks to the decline of Vladimir Guerrero. Once one of the games’ most feared hitters, age and injuries have slowed Vlad’s bat speed and in turn seriously hurt his productivity. Limited to only 100 games last year, Vlad still hit .295, but had a meager OBP of .334 and slugged only .460 with 15 home runs. Not terrible numbers, but for a DH a OPS+ 104 (100 being league average) is simply unacceptable for a team that hopes to contend for a World Series Title. Consequently, the Angels managed to lure the World Series MVP away from the Yankees for a measly $6.5million for a pretty significant upgrade. Last year batting .274/.367/.509 with 28 home runs, Hideki at the age of 35 had one of his best seasons to date, providing clutch hitting and protection for the other big hitters in the Yankee lineup, but there are serious questions whether Matsui can duplicate these numbers away from Yankee Stadium. Indeed, Hideki’s home and road splits through OPS+ are quite dramatic, hitting an impressive OPS+ 157 at the New Yankee Stadium, but hitting a pretty pedestrian 112 away from the short right porch of the Yankee’s New Digs. Further, as mentioned earlier, Hideki is going to be 36 at the beginning of the 2010 season and is not exactly the picture of perfect health. With two knees that have to be drained throughout the season, Matsui’s days of playing the field are long over, thus significantly reducing his usefulness. Matsui is not a bad player by any stretch, and in truth he’s been one of my favorite Yankees since he came over in 2003, but this is not exactly a slam dunk signing for Anaheim.


While Hideki’s value may be slightly better than Vlad’s, what is more pressing is the issue of the loss of Figgins and how that impacts the Angel’s offensive attack. In truth it may seem unfair to compare Matsui’s value to Figgins considering the comparative size and length of their contracts (Figgins got a five year deal to Matsui’s one) what is plain is that the signing has been the only significant move to bolster their offense since allowing Figgins to leave. As such, we must compare the net gains and loss of talent for the team to adequately determine his value. Although not as powerful as Matsui, Chone provided Scioscia with a great deal of versatility with his all-around play. With the ability to play every position on the field except catcher and pitcher, Figgins’ provides above average defense anywhere he plays. In addition, Figgins exhibits an exceptional eye at the plate, walking 101 times last year, giving him a .395OBP further increasing his value, and when he’s on base he’s productive, stealing 42 bases and only getting caught 17 times. To be sure, while not without his flaws, Chone Figgins is a player with considerable tools and his loss will is a significant one; the question remains, how will the Angels be able to replace those tools, if at all? From what I can see Matsui, while a nice signing is not enough to make up for the loss of both Guerrero and Figgins and it would be foolish to think so. Perhaps Angels GM Tony Regins is confident that prospect Brandon Wood or Howie Kendrick can make up for the loss, but neither has the track record or shown an ability to stay healthy or hit at a major league level. Wood in particular, once a highly touted prospect, has shown a lack of knowledge of the strike zone at the major league level, posting a .192/.222/.313 line, striking out 74 in 230 ABs. A small sample size for sure, and he’s only 25, but the results so far don’t give the Angels much hope that Brandon can even come close to Figgins’ productivity.

In the next section I’ll cover Fernando Rodney and the loss of John Lackey, but at least here it seems the Angels offense will not be nearly as potent as it was last season. While replacing Vladimir with a more productive player, the loss of Chone cannot be understated and will be severely felt in all facets of his game. Figgins may not be the only productive player in Anaheim, but expecting to replace his value on a hope and a prayer is unrealistic. While the other players in the Angels system may turn out to be good there’s no guarantee that it will happen and if it does winning the AL West won’t be so easy.

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