This has been something that has been stuck in my craw for a few months now and I've grown very weary of what I consider cookie cutter journalism covering the phenom that is Steven Strasburg. He hasnt signed yet and hopefully will but the hype has been unreal in the last few months and for good reason. Unbelivable strikeout numbers like 23 in one game, a minscule ERA and WHIP all seemingly out of nowhere, undrafted out of high school, the hyperboles from scouts everywhere have been abound. Greatest pitching prospect I've ever seen best arm ever and so on and so forth which indeed can be tiring in itself but it is even moreso when coupled with an even more irritating story in my mind, that he's bound to be a bust. Okay maybe most don't say it out loud and put it more elloquently than that, but the jist of it is that he'll never be good, and why? Look to history they say, look at the abundance of busts who were considered the next great thing, guys who seemingly looked unstoppable when they were drafted wilted under the pressure and were garbage, wastes of vast sums of money, the lot of them, but is that entirely fair? Sure there has been a lot of guys who haven't lived up to the contract who haven't been as advertised, but does that necessarily mean that they won't be good? Take Lebron James, no one was more hyped than him, I mean the guy was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as a freaking high school junior, he turned out pretty good didn't he? Who knows, maybe I'm just being kind of crabby and I just read too much sports writing, after all there are only so many angles a writer can take there's only so many things someone can say about a topic, but at least I feel like the overwhelming majority of it seems to have the same overarching message that he's done before he's started and why do that? Sure, a lot of former pitching phenoms that were supposed to be great turned out as being busts, but there are plenty who've been very successful, josh beckett and kevin brown to name a few (i realize they aren't the best examples but very good pitchers) what about them? My point is that all these "busts" are individual cases, guys like Brien Taylor or Todd Van Poppel failed for a bunch of reasons with no real correlation, the only thing tying them together is that they happened to be the bee's kneees of that years draft. I mean shit Brien Taylor broke his hand in a fight and was never the same, what are the odds of that happening? I say let's abstain from judgment until he actually does something, the guys got all the tools to be great for many years, let him and his actions decide whether he's great and not recent history.
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About me
Just an out of work lawyer looking for work and spending the rest of my time reading, writing and taking everything I can in about the game I love, baseball.
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OKC's Sam Presti is an overrated draft savant11 months ago
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Some Key Terms to Know When Reading
I throw around a lot of numbers and stats so I figured I should probably explain some of them:
wOBA - a new one I'll be using, short for weighted on-base average is essentially an improvement on OPS. Scaled to average OBP (with .330 the league average) wOBA more properly weighs on-base percentage higher than slugging percentage and more accurately weighs extra base hits (a double isn't worth double of that of a single which is what SLG does) to give a better picture of a batter's worth.
.000/.000/.000 is the industry shorthand for the split stats for batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order, these are some of the more commonly used stats to indicate how productive a hitter is.
OPS - shorthand for On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging is becoming more in vogue in the mainstream media to get a better idea of the raw production of a hitter, instead of saying how often they get a hit OPS shows how productive those hits are.
BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in play, its pretty much what it says, how often that a batter puts in ball in play that it becomes a hit, its a stat that shows if a hitter is just having a lot of bad luck or a hot streak is just fluky. For instance a BABIP of .200 is considered unlucky its not that he's not hitting, he just isn't hitting where the fielders are not there.
OPS+ - as the name implies, OPS+ is OPS but with adjustments to park effects and other outliers to normalize the data. Indeed, as most people know some parks are harder to hit at than others, which this stat compensates for, 100 being the baseline of league average
wOBA - a new one I'll be using, short for weighted on-base average is essentially an improvement on OPS. Scaled to average OBP (with .330 the league average) wOBA more properly weighs on-base percentage higher than slugging percentage and more accurately weighs extra base hits (a double isn't worth double of that of a single which is what SLG does) to give a better picture of a batter's worth.
.000/.000/.000 is the industry shorthand for the split stats for batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order, these are some of the more commonly used stats to indicate how productive a hitter is.
OPS - shorthand for On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging is becoming more in vogue in the mainstream media to get a better idea of the raw production of a hitter, instead of saying how often they get a hit OPS shows how productive those hits are.
BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in play, its pretty much what it says, how often that a batter puts in ball in play that it becomes a hit, its a stat that shows if a hitter is just having a lot of bad luck or a hot streak is just fluky. For instance a BABIP of .200 is considered unlucky its not that he's not hitting, he just isn't hitting where the fielders are not there.
OPS+ - as the name implies, OPS+ is OPS but with adjustments to park effects and other outliers to normalize the data. Indeed, as most people know some parks are harder to hit at than others, which this stat compensates for, 100 being the baseline of league average
WAR - Wins Above Replacement, as its name suggests, provides an exact number of wins a particular player is worth above what your average AAA player, or replacement player would provide in his absence. Although this is a very difficult stat to explain (I don't totally get it personally) the stat is beautifully simple in that it provides a precise value of either a pitcher or hitter to his particular team, which enables teams to monetize their worth and properly assign a dollar value.
ERA+ - similar to OPS+ its a more highly sophisticated way of evaluating a pitcher's performance adjusted for park effects, this also is on a numerical basis with 100 as league average.
FIP - short for fielding independent pitching, FIP measures the only aspects of the game that a pitcher has total control over, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Scaled to ERA, FIP gives a truer indication of a pitcher's true talent by removing the luck apparent with balls in play.
WHIP - Walks and Hits per innings pitched, a little more well known stat, but a good indicator of how effective a pitcher is. Chances are if a guy is walking a lot of guys and giving up a hot of hits, he's not pitching all that well.
xFIP- a variation of FIP which normalizes home run rates as a way to discount aberrational home run rates that are either too high or too low to reasonably sustain.
UZR- Short of Ultimate Zone Rating, this is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined. This is a difficult stat to understand because it's not one of those stats you can figure out at home, because it includes a bevy of factors including park effects and speed. As a consequence, its not a perfect stat, but its the best defensive stat we have. Also seen as UZR/150 is the Ultimate Zone rating per 150 games.
RngR - Range Runs is defined as the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity. Also not a perfect fielding stat, but one of the many fielding stats that help as as fans get a fuller picture of a player's defensive prowess.
ERA+ - similar to OPS+ its a more highly sophisticated way of evaluating a pitcher's performance adjusted for park effects, this also is on a numerical basis with 100 as league average.
FIP - short for fielding independent pitching, FIP measures the only aspects of the game that a pitcher has total control over, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Scaled to ERA, FIP gives a truer indication of a pitcher's true talent by removing the luck apparent with balls in play.
WHIP - Walks and Hits per innings pitched, a little more well known stat, but a good indicator of how effective a pitcher is. Chances are if a guy is walking a lot of guys and giving up a hot of hits, he's not pitching all that well.
xFIP- a variation of FIP which normalizes home run rates as a way to discount aberrational home run rates that are either too high or too low to reasonably sustain.
UZR- Short of Ultimate Zone Rating, this is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined. This is a difficult stat to understand because it's not one of those stats you can figure out at home, because it includes a bevy of factors including park effects and speed. As a consequence, its not a perfect stat, but its the best defensive stat we have. Also seen as UZR/150 is the Ultimate Zone rating per 150 games.
RngR - Range Runs is defined as the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity. Also not a perfect fielding stat, but one of the many fielding stats that help as as fans get a fuller picture of a player's defensive prowess.
About Me
- burnsie77
- Morristown, NJ, United States
- I write and read everything I can about baseball and have some thoughts about it.
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- Quitting Time
- Giants' Middle Reliever Throws No-No
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2009
(123)
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July
(11)
- Teixiera's Glove
- FOX sucks part two
- You've Got to Be Kidding Me Fox
- Pedro To The Phillies, Does it Matter?
- Some Thoughts On The Home Run Derby
- Jays Looking To Deal Halladay
- Quitting Time
- Giants' Middle Reliever Throws No-No
- Would You Trust Your Team To This Man?
- Former "The Natural" Impersonator Traded, Minaya c...
- Strasberg's a bust, didn't you hear?
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