It seems that after weeks of speculation and intrigue that the famous and soon to be first ballot hall of famer Pedro Martinez is signing to the Phillies for a one year deal that will make him up to 1.5million this year. Pedro, now 37, has been signed to man the number five spot and supposedly bring some stability to the back end of a Phillies rotation that has already lost Brett Myers for the year, Antonio Bastardo to the DL for the foreseeable future and inconsistentcy from the rest of the rotation, perticularly Cole Hamels. The World Series MVP and and ace of the staff Cole has been less than stellar for the first half of the year with a 4.87 ERA with 117 hits in 98 innings, not exactly what the Phillies were expecting from the guy who was pratically unhittable all October. So as a consequence of this poor rotation Ruben Amaro, GM of the Phils have turned to the little righty Pedro, but will his presence help or hurt? Sure, this is Pedro we're talking about, one of the generations' best, but with a shoulder hanging on by a string at the tender age of 37 can the Phillies reasonably expect him to be that boost they need to win the NL east? I for one am skeptical.
If we are to go by recent history, the chances of success for Pedro are not very good. Indeed, after signing his big deal with the Mets following the 2004 season, Pedro has only had one season where he pitched over 130 innings and that was his first year there. Since then he has thrown 132, 28, and 109 innings for the Mets, so Pedro hasn't exactly been the model of health. What's more is that even when he's been healthy, Pedro has gotten less and less effective from his stellar 2005 season, seeing his hits per nine innings go up from 6.6 to 7.3 to 10.6 for the last two years, thats a pretty big jump. What's more alarming is his WHIP, which has skyrocketed in the last few years. Famously a pitcher with immaculate control who struck out hitters like it was going out of style, Pedro's WHIP went from a microsopic .949 progressing all the way to a 1.569 last year, that's quite a jump in only a few years. Of course his last year where he was only there half the year there was wonder if he was really healthy and that should be considered, as well as the fact that the year before in the small sample size Pedro was quite good striking out 10.8 batters per nine innings to the tune of a 166ERA+, but this sample size seems far too small to make any definitive statements about. As the numbers show, Pedro appears to be an old guy who's only getting worse and worse.
What's more is Pedro's new home park, Citizens Bank Park is hardly the pitchers haven he's been used to pitching down in Flushing for the last few years. Indeed, a fly ball pitcher Pedro was immensly helped by pitching in the spacious confines of Shea Stadium where his ERA every year was a good run or two at least better than away. So from there Pedro will now be pitching his home games in a real bambox, a bambox where he has gotten knocked around pretty good in his career. In four starts, Pedro has only managed to throw 18.1 innings to the tune of a 7.85 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, ouch that's pretty horrible. Of course, those numbers shouldn't be the be all and end all, after all it is only four starts and those four starts he was pitching against arguably the best hitting lineup in the NL in the best hitting park in the senior circuit. As a fifth starter, Pedro will more likely be going up against weak pitchers and lineups that are decidely weaker than his own, which will most certainly help him do better than that line suggests. Regardless, there isn't a whole lot to to love in those numbers either.
All this said and most of the variables considered, how Pedro does for the Phillies really won't make or break their playoff chances. After all, he's signing on to be the fifth starter on a National League team, and to be frank I don't think that's a very hard job for a major leaguer, I'm sure most people can't name of the fifth starter on any National League club. In the grand scheme of things he's not that important and in truth the Phillies have managed to be in first place without him or any semblance of starting pitching or relief pitching and their MVP shortstop hitting around the mendoza line. If Pedro can go out there every fifth day, or possibly less if he's passed over for an off day and keep them in the game for five or six innings he'll be everything they need. However, given his steep decline, his inability to stay healthy (he's actually already on the DL for his shoulder) and his new hitter friendly home, I am very weary whether that very bare minimum is within his reach at this point.
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