New York Nine

Baseball the way it was meant to be, down and dirty with brutally honest analysis

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Teixiera's Glove

In today’s post-steroid era of baseball, defense and speed have dominated the headlines and highlight reels of mainstream sports media. Thanks to the more rigorous testing where true home run hitters are harder to come by, teams are forced to find value in other ways, and as result the new wave of stars have been young, fast, and great with the glove. Jason Bartlett, Grady Sizemore, Yadier Molina, and countless others are lauded for their defensive prowess and their ability to make the slick play all over the diamond. All over the diamond, it seems, except for first base. Long considered a position where you throw a big lumbering guy who can’t do much, first base defense has been consistently overlooked in favor of the big bat, and in this way the Yankees for the last seven years have been no different. Signing the former MVP Jason Giambi because of his ability to hit it out of the park and sort of forgetting the fact he’s horrible in the field, the Yankees chose to forsake infield defense for the last seven years and in the process hurt themselves. But by signing the uber-talented glove man Mark Teixeira in the off season, the Yankees have reversed the fortunes at the plate and in the field, transforming the position from one of weakness to a strength that has helped them in more ways that can be measured.
As I mentioned earlier, the Yankees signed Jason Giambi in 2002 for his offense and in this way, at least for awhile he did not disappoint. Blessed with a great eye and prodigious power, Giambi slugged his way to a 1.034OPS in his first full season and for the length of his contract consistently had an on-base percentage over .400 and slugged over .500, but he was not without his faults. Aside from the steroid thing, which we won’t get into here, Giambi just flat out killed the Yankees with his porous defense. Posting fielding percentages consistently in .980s, numbers bad enough in themselves, but the more advanced fielding metrics are even more telling to just how bad he truly was. Giambi’s RngR or Range Runs above average showed a clear lack of fluidity and range at the bag, putting up some pretty poor numbers like –1.5, -2.1, -2.8 and –6.0, only to improve to –4.9 in his final year shows Giambi as a clearly below average defensive first baseman (note: negative figures indicate below league average performance). Ultimate Zone Rating is equally as unkind to the Giambino, generating some poor ratings in the –2.1, -4.8 and –7.1 range. Indeed, it seems the subjective and unpleasant experience of watching Jason bumble around the field fleshes out to be true in the numbers, and these numbers as a consequence hurt the rest of his teammates.
For sure, when you have such a below average first baseman like Jason Giambi, his inability will only make his other infielders look worse and the numbers seem to show this to be true as well. Take for instance, Derek Jeter, a shortstop who admittedly was not a great defensive player before, with Giambi, his weaknesses seemed to only be amplified. Unfortunately, Ultimate Zone ratings prior to 2002 are unavailable, but in the data available it seems clear that as Giambi’s glove work worsened so did Jeter’s going from a not great –0.3 to an absolutely horrendous –12.6, and –16.7 as Giambi’s tenure went on. Now of course, Giambi cannot be completely blamed for Jeter’s woes, after all he is a not a great defensive shortstop who seemed to be declining with age, but as Teixeira’s short tenure has shown, a great first baseman can make up for some of those problems with superior range and compensate for the bad throw at times. This is a skill that Giambi clearly did not possess.
Moving forward to the 2008 off-season, Giambi’s option is not picked up and in his place the Yankees sign two-time Gold Glover Mark Teixeira signs a jaw-dropping $180 million dollar deal, and his impact is sudden and immediate. After enduring years of Giambi’s corpse-like average range of 7.8, Teixeira’s superior range, now standing at 9.0 for the season (a number that is actually down from last year’s 10.1) has indeed been a breath of fresh air for the rest of the Yankee infielders and it’s easy to see why. For one, Teixeria has started at first 87 times already this year, a feat Jason only accomplished twice as a Yankee and when he’s in there Teixeria’s Zone Rating has been a respectable –1.7, a number Giambi never touched. For certain, as anyone can see watching him, the impact of Teixeria’s presence has been undeniable, picking it left and right, making acrobatic dives and throws look easy, and in the process helping guys all over the diamond, particularly the aforementioned Derek Jeter who’s having the defensive season of his life. Posting a career high 1.8 UZR and an even more impressive 4.5UZR per 150 games, Jeter’s numbers have seen a huge, huge spike and he’s not alone. Second baseman Robinson Cano has seen his UZR improve from –8.0 to 0.7 as well and his RngR go from –5.4 to –1.2. And this is all in a season where Teixeira is actually is a little bit down from his previous season where he averaged closer to 10 in range factor and 5 UZR! Imagine once Mark really hits his stride again defensively, then you really have to watch out.
Again, this is only a half season’s worth of statistics and some credit has to be given to the other defenders for their improvement, but the change seems plain in the results on the field. From being a below average defensive team, the Yankees have established themselves as a good team with the glove, setting a new record for consecutive games without an error and elevating themselves from the basement to the middle of the pack in this category. Don’t get me wrong, they’re not going to challenge the Rays or the Pirates, who have the highest rated defensive team yet, but the change is unmistakable. The team has become more balanced and efficient in the way they play the game and the change, along with the other off-season acquisitions have put them back atop the AL East. They say one player can’t change a team, but at least in matters of

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

FOX sucks part two


I'm sure many of you who read the fine website deadspin have seen this picture, but if you haven't we have here yet another example of FOX's rampant douchebaggery. If you saw the game last night I'm sure you noticed this creep in the stands who they just happen to show fairly frequently, but he is not just any person. No, in fact this was not just some weird fan but a man, no a video of a man who's an actor in the new FOX series "The Observer." They showed this weird bald dude as sort a perverse in-game advertisement for their new show, which I'm sure sucks, and this is just deplorable. Like their incessant advertising isn't bad enough, the powers that be have decided to bombard us fans with their recent crap they're hucking during the freaking game.

Now look I understand they have to make advertising money and they have all sorts of ways of doing that, but this is just too much. They less see this as a baseball game and jus another tool to force people to hear about their other crap whether they like it or not. What's worse is that this is not the first time, evidently this dude has shown up in all sorts of events like American Idol and football games for the last year. This sort of stuff needs to stop immediately. The network has systematically ruined big baseball games for years and there's unfortunately there is no end in sight. I'll stop now because I'm just repeating myself, but the fact remains, its just not good baseball.


I'll write about the game itself later which held my interest, sort of, but what really got me going was the Ceremonial First Pitch by President Obama. Now maybe I'm just weird, but I was very intrigued on whether our faithful leader could throw a strike from the mound, and I wasn't alone. Indeed Bodog a internet betting site was taking bets on whether he'd make plate so I wasn't the only person who felt that, and why not? I mean if this guy is going to be the leader of the free world, the man who speaks for a nation, I would like him or her to be able to throw a strike from the mound, or at least close. Say what you will about President Bush and his politics, which I didn't perticularly care for, when he went out there in 2001 at Yankee Stadium and threw a strike to the catcher that was a fucking moment to remember there, right? In the shadow of the crumbling towers he got up there in the middle of the Bronx all alone by himself and threw a dart right there. Okay I'm sort of being tongue and cheek here, but what I'm not kidding about here is that I was intrigued, I wanted to see this very much, and what did FOX in all their wisdom do? Why they cut away and didn't show the pitch, they didn't show it!! I hate FOX's presentation as it is but this is totally unacceptable and appalling.
I mean first of all, I really don't understand WHY they did it, were they afraid Obama would embrass himself on television? Its not like the President was doing this in some closed set studio, it was in front of an entire stadium full of people, you're pretty much guaranteed a good 40,000 people or however many people were in attendance would see it, people would know what happened, why cut away? What's more is there are a million journalists there would took photographs of it or could speak about it, why cut away, did they think that if America's viewing public didn't see him throw it in the dirt they'd never find out? I find the logic behind the move very puzzling and frustrating, just show the damn game FOX.
I doubt FOX will ever give any sort of response as to why they did it, and that pisses me off even more. FOX seems to have this agenda to force you to think what they want you to think and it makes for some shitty baseball. I realize that the Obama pitch isn't really a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but its indicitive of a larger problem with FOX and their unique brand of shit that seems to think they know what's best for America, and that's yankees-red sox is all that matters in baseball, that you should eat a lot of crappy tacos and that you wouldnt want to see the President throw out the first pitch at the All Star Game, Fuck You Fox and fuck you for thinking you know whats best for me as a baseball consumer. All this crap they pull and people wonder why World Series ratings are down to me its no shock at all when you consider the garbage FOX pulls all year, shame on them.



It seems that after weeks of speculation and intrigue that the famous and soon to be first ballot hall of famer Pedro Martinez is signing to the Phillies for a one year deal that will make him up to 1.5million this year. Pedro, now 37, has been signed to man the number five spot and supposedly bring some stability to the back end of a Phillies rotation that has already lost Brett Myers for the year, Antonio Bastardo to the DL for the foreseeable future and inconsistentcy from the rest of the rotation, perticularly Cole Hamels. The World Series MVP and and ace of the staff Cole has been less than stellar for the first half of the year with a 4.87 ERA with 117 hits in 98 innings, not exactly what the Phillies were expecting from the guy who was pratically unhittable all October. So as a consequence of this poor rotation Ruben Amaro, GM of the Phils have turned to the little righty Pedro, but will his presence help or hurt? Sure, this is Pedro we're talking about, one of the generations' best, but with a shoulder hanging on by a string at the tender age of 37 can the Phillies reasonably expect him to be that boost they need to win the NL east? I for one am skeptical.
If we are to go by recent history, the chances of success for Pedro are not very good. Indeed, after signing his big deal with the Mets following the 2004 season, Pedro has only had one season where he pitched over 130 innings and that was his first year there. Since then he has thrown 132, 28, and 109 innings for the Mets, so Pedro hasn't exactly been the model of health. What's more is that even when he's been healthy, Pedro has gotten less and less effective from his stellar 2005 season, seeing his hits per nine innings go up from 6.6 to 7.3 to 10.6 for the last two years, thats a pretty big jump. What's more alarming is his WHIP, which has skyrocketed in the last few years. Famously a pitcher with immaculate control who struck out hitters like it was going out of style, Pedro's WHIP went from a microsopic .949 progressing all the way to a 1.569 last year, that's quite a jump in only a few years. Of course his last year where he was only there half the year there was wonder if he was really healthy and that should be considered, as well as the fact that the year before in the small sample size Pedro was quite good striking out 10.8 batters per nine innings to the tune of a 166ERA+, but this sample size seems far too small to make any definitive statements about. As the numbers show, Pedro appears to be an old guy who's only getting worse and worse.
What's more is Pedro's new home park, Citizens Bank Park is hardly the pitchers haven he's been used to pitching down in Flushing for the last few years. Indeed, a fly ball pitcher Pedro was immensly helped by pitching in the spacious confines of Shea Stadium where his ERA every year was a good run or two at least better than away. So from there Pedro will now be pitching his home games in a real bambox, a bambox where he has gotten knocked around pretty good in his career. In four starts, Pedro has only managed to throw 18.1 innings to the tune of a 7.85 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, ouch that's pretty horrible. Of course, those numbers shouldn't be the be all and end all, after all it is only four starts and those four starts he was pitching against arguably the best hitting lineup in the NL in the best hitting park in the senior circuit. As a fifth starter, Pedro will more likely be going up against weak pitchers and lineups that are decidely weaker than his own, which will most certainly help him do better than that line suggests. Regardless, there isn't a whole lot to to love in those numbers either.
All this said and most of the variables considered, how Pedro does for the Phillies really won't make or break their playoff chances. After all, he's signing on to be the fifth starter on a National League team, and to be frank I don't think that's a very hard job for a major leaguer, I'm sure most people can't name of the fifth starter on any National League club. In the grand scheme of things he's not that important and in truth the Phillies have managed to be in first place without him or any semblance of starting pitching or relief pitching and their MVP shortstop hitting around the mendoza line. If Pedro can go out there every fifth day, or possibly less if he's passed over for an off day and keep them in the game for five or six innings he'll be everything they need. However, given his steep decline, his inability to stay healthy (he's actually already on the DL for his shoulder) and his new hitter friendly home, I am very weary whether that very bare minimum is within his reach at this point.


I'm sure like many baseball fans, I'm kind of ambivalent about the Home Run Derby. The concept of the derby is awesome, get the best sluggers out there on the same field, give them some gopher balls to hit and watch the fireworks, but something doesn't quite always work in execution all the time. It can drag, on and on and on for hours, some guys can't cut it on the stage and end up hitting a bunch of pop flies to little kids, and well the annoucing is just fucking awful. I mean think about it, you've got the worst booth in the history of sports, only they've removed Jon Miller who's awful, for Chris Berman, who's even MORE awful with his tired old calls and combine that with the dynamic duo of dunderheads Joe Morgan and Steve Phillips who have firmly established themselves as some of the games greatest windbags you're in for trouble. But then its even worse because there's very little action going on, there's a ton of downtime so you're forced to listen this terrible triumvirate speak anecdotally for hours and hours. Not exactly a non-stop thrill ride.
But as poorly as ESPN has executed the event, it seems that the event itself is prone to become tired and worn out. Don't get me wrong, I love dingers as much as the next guy, but its not like there's a lot of expression you can put into it. Certainly, its not like the slam dunk contest where guys think of all new wild ways to slam the ball, the home run derby is kind of bland, they only real aspect of it you can change is how many you hit and and how far you hit, and there aren't many guys in the world who can do that. For this reason the excitement of the derby seems decidely limited.
However there is one way to inject the derby with excitement and that's drama. For sure, its not easy to just manufacture some drama or some compelling reason to root for a guy aside from team allegiances, but when it does it like it did last year with Josh Hamilton its just great drama and a compelling watch. Indeed, many had heard of Josh Hamilton and his story, his rise and fall thanks to serious drug abuse, but it was here that his triumph and indeed the triumph of the human spirit came to fruition. Possessing seemingly Herculian strength Hamilton was clearly for that moment on another plane from the rest of the competitors there, launching an inconceivable 28 home runs in the first roun, 28! I called everybody I knew to tell them about the genius that was being put on display that night, with his sweet left handed stoke hitting balls to places in the Old Yankee Stadium I have never seen before, and I've watched a lot of baseball games there. In short, it was everything a Home Run Derby can be, epic and grand, a drama with the highest of highs and lowest of lows with some compelling players. Of course, Hamilton did ultimately lose to the dullard Morneau, but by then the story had been already written with this derby being forever known as the day Hamilton did his best Roy Hobbs impression and wowed the baseball world.
I kind of got wrapped up in describing the event more than I should have, but my point is that when you have the best derby ever last year anything less than that just sucks and that was the case this year. There was several bums out there like Brandon Inge who shockingly hit no home runs (its like its a garbage number eight hitter or something who just happens to hit home runs but that's all he does, or something) or guys like Joe Mauer, who's obviously not a bum but is no home run hitter by any stretch, and it adds up to a pretty forgettable home run derby. In truth, its really not fair to compare the two, but unfortuantely all other derbys subsequent to that one will be judged against that and it didn't fare so well. I'm not here saying I know how to fix it or what can be done to improve it, because I'm not sure if you can, it is what it is, but what it is isn't that all thrilling.


Well it seems as though the Jays early season surge was in fact an illusion and Blue Jays are left in a familiar position, fourth place in the AL East looking up at the three best teams in the Junior Circuit (arguably). For sure, after early promise this was not the position Toronto's managment was expecting to be, but at the halfway points its become more clear that this team just won't cut it, they're just not as deep not as talented as the Rays, Sox, and Yankees and something must be done. That something to be done seems to be more dramatic than many expected when Toronto GM JP Riccardi announced he's shopping arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay, but is it for the best? Sure Halladay should command a decent haul, but will they be able to get anywhere near the value he brings or will be it pennies on the dollar? It's a question that cannot be answered yet but if played deftly by Riccardi dealing Halladay might be the smartest thing the Blue Jays have done in years.

Of course when dealing a player of Halladay brings a great deal of risk, after all prospects are no sure bet and even the best ones can flame out, but for the Jays its an opportunity that could pay off big. Consider the Mark Texiera trade, who also had one and a half year left on his contract like Halladay. Traded to the talent rich Altanta Braves, the Braves sent over SS Elvis Andrus, RHP Neftali Perez, LHP Matt Harrison, LHP Beau Jones, and C Jarrod Saltamacchia and its plain to see since then the Rangers have vastly improved for the long term since then. Andrus, now with the major league club has become a conerstone of the Rangers' defense and a surpsing amount of offense, Neftali Perez, now the highest rated pitching prospect in all the land, Saltamacchia has emerged as a productive hitter behind the plate and Matt Harrison who addmittedly has had his bumps in the road, is still only 23 and could soon emerge as a valuable member of the rotation, not a bad huh? Now of course its no guarantee as of yet but such a haul of prospects can literally turn around an organization just as it did with the Rangers. Long a basement dweller for years, Texas has vaunted itself into contention in the AL west a mere two years later and look poised to be a major player for years to come, why not give that a try? Sure its no sure bet, but it seems clear that attempting to compete fielding this team is sure to fall short again.

Of course there are a great deal of people who would be more than happy but where is the best fit is the real question. I think that of course the Red Sox and Yankees have to be involved to raise the stakes, as they both obviously have the money and actually both have the prospects, but I think if they can avoid dealing within the division they should. The Phillies have been prominently mentioned and they too would also be a good fit, big market, money to spend, lots of talented prospects and he's moving to the National League where he'll probably be never hit again so that works for him. They haven't been mentioned but the Dodgers have the money and the pieces to get him and they could desperately need him. They've obviously done well so far, but their starting pitching has been so-so at best, not going deep enough into games and forcing a lot of pressure on their bullpen, adding a guy who averages 230 innings will only make them that much more dangerous.

Its hard selling a fanbase on something like getting rid of your best player for some kids, but its something the Jays just need to do right now. A team that not that long ago was the toast of the town and a prennial winner has become a doormat to the yanks, sox and now even the rays. Thier current half-assed attempt to stay competitve by sort of spending money and sort of developing needs to stop, just accept that its going to be another couple of years of sucking, something they've done already and regroup, get younger and build a new core of talented young guys who can win for years. Its a hard sell, but its a whole lot harder than selling the good people of Toronto on third and fourth place finishes year in and year out.

Monday, July 13, 2009

Quitting Time


You've probably noticed my posting increased a lot today and its for good reason, I gave notice last week. As you might guess, my "Give a Shit" Meter is kind of low now, I've been here two years and they can, as they say kiss my ass. So I'm going to try to give more posts from here on in, so lets see if I can hopefully do better than last month.

Okay, to call Sanchez a middling reliever is not really fair, but if you were to look at what the young talented Jonathan Sanchez has accomplished thus far this year, Sanchez would hardly be among the top three guys you'd think of when you hear "San Francisco Giants Pitcher Throws No-No." Indeed, as a team with immensely talented pitching spearheaded by arguably the best pitcher in the world, Tim Lincecum, the Giants have been foridible to say the least. With Lincecum and Matt Cain off to the All-Star Game, a future first ball hall of famer in Randy Johnson, a pitcher whos being paid over 100 million as their fourth best starter at best (Zito kind of sucks, but you could do worse as a four starter) the Giants are the enby of the rest of the league for their prodigious pitching. Well it seems that pitching has gotten even more impressive as Jonathan Sanchez, whom wasn't even in the rotation due to ineffetiveness, came in against the Padres and three the gem of his life, nine innings, eleven strikeouts, and no hits. Add all of these elements together and despite the fact they have practically have no offense, the Giants seem suddenly more dangerous than ever, posied atop the wild card race and intent on staying there.


Thanks to the good graces of MLB Network (Great Network, or The Greatest Network?) I was able to watch a great deal of this game and what a performance it was indeed. As mentioned above, Sanchez wasn't even supposed to be starting that night or any night, but thanks to a bad back for Barry Zito, and its not hard to see why. Through 69 innings Sanchez had an ERA over five walking a pretty atrocious 45 over that span and gettting hit around even worse than Barry Zito. Relegated to the pen Sanchez showed flashes of what he finally got to together that fateful friday night and what a flash it was. Featuring a high 90s heater and a wicked slider, Sanchez, only 25 has been around and hasn't gotten it together, but at least for one night he was unbelievable. Pumping fastballs and nasty breaking stuff by the hapless Padres, it seemed clear early on these guys didn't stand a chance. Of course this is the padres we're talking about so they're not exactly murders row, but its hard to say that anyone would have a chance against him that night.


it will be interesting to see where Sanchez's career goes from here. A guy with all the talent in the world who could be as great as he wants to be can go many directions from here. Indeed, while many great pitchers have no-hitters to their resume, there are many many other pitchers who have thrown no-hitters who went on to do nothing, and that game being a blip on the radar on an otherwise unimpressive career. If you dont believe me, go to si.com and see the gallery of pitchers who threw no hitters for their teams, I'm a baseball nut and I didnt know a whole lot of them. Hopefully for the Giants and Sanchez that was only a signal of things to come because the guy is as talented as any pitcher out there, you get him pitching at a level similar to that of Cain and Lincecum, watch out, because theres a triumvirate to rival maddox, glavine and smoltz, at least talent-wise. Whether that dream will come to fruition is something only time will tell, but at least for this night the Giants showed just how deep they are in their staff, and are a team to be recokened with come October.



Writing this morning's post compelled me to think about how utterly horrible and unwatchable the Mets have been under this man's tenure. I mean seriously, doesn't this guy look like he's full of shit? Okay I'm taking a cheap shot, but if I were a Mets fan I would be incredibly diasppointed in Omar's time as General Manager, a time where he has completely decimated their farm system to win now (which if you haven't heard hasn't happened), signed bad guys to crippling contracts like Oliver Perez and his 36 million dollar deals and most importantly has failed to make the Mets a complete organization, as this season and the little league lineup the Mets have been trotting out there lately. For sure, for a guy who came in with such hype and promise who has been lauded for deals where he supposedly turned water into wine, what good has it done? how are the Mets any better than they were? The fact is they're not and change is necessary if the Mets fans hope of ever getting back to the top of the mountain again.


If one is unsure of how talented a GM Minaya is all they need to do is look at their current incarnation and see how hopeless they really are. Beset with a multitude of injuries that no one would have expected is bad enough, but not having a single impact player in the system who could at least provide league average production is completely unacceptable. I mean for christ's sake their leadoff guy has been Alex Cora, a guy whos OPS hasnt even been close to league average since 2004, and that's the guy they give the most at-bats to! You're telling me there isn't one guy in their farm system who can give you something at least close to average? Indeed, as far as I'm concerned this is indicitive of piss poor management of an organization, a total lack of depth in the farm to supplement the major league team. And I don't even mean someone who's going to carry the team or anything like that, just someone who isn't an automatic out or a starter who you're confident can at least keep you competitive in the game, can you name one? No its hard to because instead this very promising season has turned into a blooper roll and Minaya only has himself to blame.



If you remember when Minaya came in several years ago, the guy was all about change, shaking things up and making them a contender right now, and he did but a very costly price. Trading for guys like Carlos Delgado, Johan Santana, investing big money into Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran make big headlines but they came at the cost of overall organizational health. For sure, the team won early on, coming within one curveball from being in the world series in 2006, but it came at a terrible price, the price of their long term health. Prospects like Matt Lindstrom and Mike Jacobs, or even more talented draft picks like Clay Bucholz who the sox got for Pedro, talented young players who could have provided cheap and consistent production for several years were shipped off for the quick strike for older and experienced players. And sure, most of those guys did compete for a time, but as this season has shown the bad thing about veterans is that they get hurt a lot, and its easy to see why. I mean as your body gets older it doesn't recover as quickly and more prone to injuries and these last few months for the mets have shown that to be true. Depend on older players, especially in the post-PED era and you're going to hurt. Despite this very clear trend, Omar has stubbornly continued that way and look where its gotten them.



Whats more is Omar's seeming inability to improve his ballclub throughout the year. While other contenders recognize their vunerabilities and make moves to fill their holes at the deadline, Omar has been consistently immoible come the end of July, and the results are pretty clear. Two epic late season collapses and now a team with no offense to speak of and the best he can do is trade a valuable outfielder for a guy who's career OPS+ is 90, that doesn't sound like improvement to me. Now I'm not saying Omar should make moves for the sake of making moves, but certainly there's something he could have done in the past few years that could make a difference while not killing the team, right? Nope instead Omar stood pat and got passed by.



I'm not saying everything Omar has done is bad, and in truth some of his failures were caused by problems that he can't be blamed for (injuries etc etc) but for me the mark of a good organization is having the pieces to move to be able to deal with problems. Take the Red Sox, they lose Dice-K for most of the year, are they worried? Hardly, they signed Smoltz and Penny and have a pleathora of arms who can fill that hole. Boston like many other teams are prepared for the worst case senario and smart enough to know how to make your team better like Cashman trading for Bobby Abreu a few years back. Of course they both have the financial means to do that, but so do the Mets and why not use it wisely, for something that's pretty imprortant? No he hasn't and for that if Omar's still the General Manager of the Mets next year I feel very very badly for a team that seems to get nothing going there way, and this is not helping it.


When this Sports Illustrated came out in 2005 Jeff Francoeur seemed every bit Roy Hobbs as the the magazine wanted you to believe. Indeed, young and talented with a great swing, and cannon arm, the Braves were the envy of the league when they premiered this young slugger to the world early that year and did not disappoint. 14 homers, 20 doubles, 45 RBI, .300 average in 70 games with some sterling defense, it seemed inevitable that Francoeur would beccome a perennial all-star, a fixture in the MVP voting year and in year out, and perhaps even with his southern boy charm, become a new "ambassador of the game" a Derek Jeter for the new decade. Today these claims seem quite silly and ridiclous, but in 2005 it was hard not to get swept away in the sheer beauty of all aspects of his game. I for one took a liking the Frenchy in his early days, with his healthy swing and quick hands and his rifle arm in right field because he seemed to play the game so fluidly and gracefully, he seemed every bit worthy of the Hobbisan comparisions, at least for a time. In his first full season Francoer hit 29 home runs and drove in 103, very respectable numbers except that his holes became to be glaring, hitting .260/.293/.449 in deceivingly unimpressive fashion.
For all the guys talent and grace, the dude is a hacker, he swings big and his swings often and as so many other free-swingers have been revealed, its that good major league pitching will expose that and that's exactly what happened. After another year that was actually slightly better, his OBP was .336 but with even less power, clubbing only 19 home runs the next year saw his game fall apart 239/.294/.359 looking absolutely lost and a shell of a guy OPS+ing a horrible 68, I mean they guy wasn't even close to league average! What happened to the Natural? Where has all the promise vanished? For certain, the sunny promise of Francoeur's 2005 has clearly since vanished before our eyes, traded for a guy who's at best a platoon right fielder, and even then he's still not the most valuable guy. How the mighty have fallen.
It seems kind of strange to think that Ryan Church, a guy who was a part-timer in the Nationals organization and later with the Mets could possibly the better chip between him and "The Natural" but the numbers show this is as true. Indeed, just going by OPS+ Church, also a left-handed hitter which is a natural advantage, is clearly the better player, having OPS+ of 131, 114, and 106 in the last three years compared to Francouer's 87, 103 and 72 the last three years. Even at his best he still didn't possess the offensive prowess of this glorified platoon player, but it is in fact true. Consistently getting on base at a much higher clip .345 career to Francouer's .308 as well as a better batting average by a good fifteen points Church has proven himself to be the more valuable player over the last few years.
Yet despite these clear facts, Omar Minaya in his infinite wisdom decided that he should play the Braves extra for the pleasure of getting an inferior player, cash? I'll get to Minaya and my loathing in other posts in more gruesome details, but this is a really baffling move. At the very best, this is a lateral move, and even that is really a insult to Church. As you can see, despite Francoeur's big entrance to the major leagues, he has never capitalized on that early promise and proven himself to not only not be that player, but not even really a major league starting outfielder! And yet here Minaya is in all his wisdom that somehow he's going to re-kindle that hot start and be the sparkplug that the mets so desperately need, and I don't get it all. For all of Church's faults, his concussion last year that kept him from being effective all year, his baserunning gaffe, at Dodger Stadium he's proven to be a legitimate major league starter who can provide some pop from the left side. Now not only do the Braves have that, but they've also receieved relief in the form of just straight cash and have effectively made out like bandits.
Don't get me wrong, Church isn't a great player by any stretch, he's hitting a fairly pedestrian .280/.332/.375, but at least there is some value in that. As a lefty he can provide some excellent lefty platooning possibilities to their rather punchless outfield, or at the least he can go in right field to replace Francoeur (where he was actually benched) and provide the Braves with less than a total zero out there. As for Francoeur, he's going to a lineup that is absolutely punchless and a ballpark that has proven to be a terrible hitters park that should only make his already putrid numbers even worse. What's there to like?
I hate to see guys with so much promise fall by the wayside because its just wasted talent. A few years ago it was unfathomable that the Braves would move a guy who seemed so poised to be a fixture in the Braves lineup for years to come, let along inside the division to a rival, but that time has come to pass. At the very least for the Braves they got something of value in return, but for the Mets who are now a little bit poorer and left with the inferior player, there's not much to like. Sure there's the possibility of Frenchy re-discovering his groove, but with a .308 OBP that's only getting worse, I dont see it.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Strasberg's a bust, didn't you hear?

This has been something that has been stuck in my craw for a few months now and I've grown very weary of what I consider cookie cutter journalism covering the phenom that is Steven Strasburg. He hasnt signed yet and hopefully will but the hype has been unreal in the last few months and for good reason. Unbelivable strikeout numbers like 23 in one game, a minscule ERA and WHIP all seemingly out of nowhere, undrafted out of high school, the hyperboles from scouts everywhere have been abound. Greatest pitching prospect I've ever seen best arm ever and so on and so forth which indeed can be tiring in itself but it is even moreso when coupled with an even more irritating story in my mind, that he's bound to be a bust. Okay maybe most don't say it out loud and put it more elloquently than that, but the jist of it is that he'll never be good, and why? Look to history they say, look at the abundance of busts who were considered the next great thing, guys who seemingly looked unstoppable when they were drafted wilted under the pressure and were garbage, wastes of vast sums of money, the lot of them, but is that entirely fair? Sure there has been a lot of guys who haven't lived up to the contract who haven't been as advertised, but does that necessarily mean that they won't be good? Take Lebron James, no one was more hyped than him, I mean the guy was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as a freaking high school junior, he turned out pretty good didn't he? Who knows, maybe I'm just being kind of crabby and I just read too much sports writing, after all there are only so many angles a writer can take there's only so many things someone can say about a topic, but at least I feel like the overwhelming majority of it seems to have the same overarching message that he's done before he's started and why do that? Sure, a lot of former pitching phenoms that were supposed to be great turned out as being busts, but there are plenty who've been very successful, josh beckett and kevin brown to name a few (i realize they aren't the best examples but very good pitchers) what about them? My point is that all these "busts" are individual cases, guys like Brien Taylor or Todd Van Poppel failed for a bunch of reasons with no real correlation, the only thing tying them together is that they happened to be the bee's kneees of that years draft. I mean shit Brien Taylor broke his hand in a fight and was never the same, what are the odds of that happening? I say let's abstain from judgment until he actually does something, the guys got all the tools to be great for many years, let him and his actions decide whether he's great and not recent history.