Aside from the Yankees the Dodgers were the winners of the sports back pages this off season by a long shot. Manny, Manny, Manny is all you ever heard, will he sign? For how much? He finally did sign for the same stinking deal of 45 million that he was offered originally with the opt out clause, putting their spending second on the list this year. Its been a busy offseason for the dodgers lots of new faces and faces leaving, but with Manny re-upping many critics have made them the resumptive NL west champion before the season starts, but I find this claim to be dubious at best. While they've become better behind the plate they've lost their two best starters and their closer and I find this to be quite troublesome.
As I said they lost their two top starters Brad Penny and Derek Lowe to free agency. Granted, Penny wasn't exactly great for them in an injury riddled year, but when you line them up in from of Kiroda, Billingsly, and Kershaw that's a damn good rotation, but that is no longer the case. Indeed, with those two gone Kiroda, a very good third starter, but hardly an ace, and Billingsley, only a second year starter full time there are alot of question marks. PECOTA predicts a sophmore slump for Chad from his very impressive 207Ks in 200 innings with a 135ERA+. Add in question marks in Kershaw who's now expected to be a valuable starter while at the tender age of 21 and a bunch of question marks after that makes me think their pitching is no longer quite as dominating. What's more is Saito the closer is gone. While he was injured at the end of last year he's been an anchor for that bullpen, forcing the burly Jonathan Broxton from his crucial relief ace role to the closer spot. Losing that arm for the 7th and 8th innings will hurt, and guys like Corey Wade are unproven and thus you can't just count on him fillling that role. All of this looks to me like a recipe for disappointment for Dodger fans.
But of course they have Manny now for a full season. After his record breaking tear coming to LA its hard not to feel like they have an offense that trumps anything the rest of the NL west has to offer. In addition they added the valuable Orlando Hudson at second base, providing excellent defense, but more importantly a major upgrade from Blake DeWitt. They also re-upped Raphel Furcal for three more years who has proven to be the sparkplug of the offense and Casey Blake at third base, a pretty awful defensive third baseman who hits for very pedestrian numbers at 3rd .274/.345/.463 and an 110 OPS+ (a 100OPS+ is a replacement level player) so the're not exactly getting an allstar and they resigned him for 3 years! And to think that they traded away the ultra-talented catcher Carlos Santana who's tearing it up for the Indians right now to get him makes me cringe.
They're still a very talented team compared to some of the other teams in the divison but people seem to forget that this team was around .500 for most of the year, and even when Manny came to town they didn't do that much better. Of course their young guys Either, Kemp, Loney and Martin can always make the next step at the plate but I dont see them all making enough of a jump to realisitically challanging the Cubs for the NL crown this year. I give them a B/B- for their offseason because while getting Manny is obivously a huge upgrade and the rest of the offense should benefit from him being there, I fear that pitching staff in the not-so-trustworthy hands of Joe Torre will falter.
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About me
Just an out of work lawyer looking for work and spending the rest of my time reading, writing and taking everything I can in about the game I love, baseball.
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Some Key Terms to Know When Reading
I throw around a lot of numbers and stats so I figured I should probably explain some of them:
wOBA - a new one I'll be using, short for weighted on-base average is essentially an improvement on OPS. Scaled to average OBP (with .330 the league average) wOBA more properly weighs on-base percentage higher than slugging percentage and more accurately weighs extra base hits (a double isn't worth double of that of a single which is what SLG does) to give a better picture of a batter's worth.
.000/.000/.000 is the industry shorthand for the split stats for batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order, these are some of the more commonly used stats to indicate how productive a hitter is.
OPS - shorthand for On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging is becoming more in vogue in the mainstream media to get a better idea of the raw production of a hitter, instead of saying how often they get a hit OPS shows how productive those hits are.
BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in play, its pretty much what it says, how often that a batter puts in ball in play that it becomes a hit, its a stat that shows if a hitter is just having a lot of bad luck or a hot streak is just fluky. For instance a BABIP of .200 is considered unlucky its not that he's not hitting, he just isn't hitting where the fielders are not there.
OPS+ - as the name implies, OPS+ is OPS but with adjustments to park effects and other outliers to normalize the data. Indeed, as most people know some parks are harder to hit at than others, which this stat compensates for, 100 being the baseline of league average
wOBA - a new one I'll be using, short for weighted on-base average is essentially an improvement on OPS. Scaled to average OBP (with .330 the league average) wOBA more properly weighs on-base percentage higher than slugging percentage and more accurately weighs extra base hits (a double isn't worth double of that of a single which is what SLG does) to give a better picture of a batter's worth.
.000/.000/.000 is the industry shorthand for the split stats for batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order, these are some of the more commonly used stats to indicate how productive a hitter is.
OPS - shorthand for On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging is becoming more in vogue in the mainstream media to get a better idea of the raw production of a hitter, instead of saying how often they get a hit OPS shows how productive those hits are.
BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in play, its pretty much what it says, how often that a batter puts in ball in play that it becomes a hit, its a stat that shows if a hitter is just having a lot of bad luck or a hot streak is just fluky. For instance a BABIP of .200 is considered unlucky its not that he's not hitting, he just isn't hitting where the fielders are not there.
OPS+ - as the name implies, OPS+ is OPS but with adjustments to park effects and other outliers to normalize the data. Indeed, as most people know some parks are harder to hit at than others, which this stat compensates for, 100 being the baseline of league average
WAR - Wins Above Replacement, as its name suggests, provides an exact number of wins a particular player is worth above what your average AAA player, or replacement player would provide in his absence. Although this is a very difficult stat to explain (I don't totally get it personally) the stat is beautifully simple in that it provides a precise value of either a pitcher or hitter to his particular team, which enables teams to monetize their worth and properly assign a dollar value.
ERA+ - similar to OPS+ its a more highly sophisticated way of evaluating a pitcher's performance adjusted for park effects, this also is on a numerical basis with 100 as league average.
FIP - short for fielding independent pitching, FIP measures the only aspects of the game that a pitcher has total control over, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Scaled to ERA, FIP gives a truer indication of a pitcher's true talent by removing the luck apparent with balls in play.
WHIP - Walks and Hits per innings pitched, a little more well known stat, but a good indicator of how effective a pitcher is. Chances are if a guy is walking a lot of guys and giving up a hot of hits, he's not pitching all that well.
xFIP- a variation of FIP which normalizes home run rates as a way to discount aberrational home run rates that are either too high or too low to reasonably sustain.
UZR- Short of Ultimate Zone Rating, this is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined. This is a difficult stat to understand because it's not one of those stats you can figure out at home, because it includes a bevy of factors including park effects and speed. As a consequence, its not a perfect stat, but its the best defensive stat we have. Also seen as UZR/150 is the Ultimate Zone rating per 150 games.
RngR - Range Runs is defined as the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity. Also not a perfect fielding stat, but one of the many fielding stats that help as as fans get a fuller picture of a player's defensive prowess.
ERA+ - similar to OPS+ its a more highly sophisticated way of evaluating a pitcher's performance adjusted for park effects, this also is on a numerical basis with 100 as league average.
FIP - short for fielding independent pitching, FIP measures the only aspects of the game that a pitcher has total control over, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Scaled to ERA, FIP gives a truer indication of a pitcher's true talent by removing the luck apparent with balls in play.
WHIP - Walks and Hits per innings pitched, a little more well known stat, but a good indicator of how effective a pitcher is. Chances are if a guy is walking a lot of guys and giving up a hot of hits, he's not pitching all that well.
xFIP- a variation of FIP which normalizes home run rates as a way to discount aberrational home run rates that are either too high or too low to reasonably sustain.
UZR- Short of Ultimate Zone Rating, this is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined. This is a difficult stat to understand because it's not one of those stats you can figure out at home, because it includes a bevy of factors including park effects and speed. As a consequence, its not a perfect stat, but its the best defensive stat we have. Also seen as UZR/150 is the Ultimate Zone rating per 150 games.
RngR - Range Runs is defined as the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity. Also not a perfect fielding stat, but one of the many fielding stats that help as as fans get a fuller picture of a player's defensive prowess.
About Me
- burnsie77
- Morristown, NJ, United States
- I write and read everything I can about baseball and have some thoughts about it.
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- For all the talk of change, Padres looking remarka...
- "Rocktober" Seems a Looooong Time Ago
- The San Francisco Giants hoping to win a lot of 1-...
- For the Dodgers, its a few steps foward and a few ...
- Curt Schilling, Douchebag? Yes. Hall of Famer? Yes.
- The Cubs Hoping Not to Blow it Again this year
- The Only Baseball Video Game You Need
- I am very glad this guy isn't a yankee anymore
- Astros poised to be even shittier than last year
- Injuries, injuries, everywhere
- After Pujols, many questions remain for Cardinals
- After magical season, brewers at crossroads
- Hope for the future in Cincinnati
- Miracle on the Diamond
- The reason for my vanishing
- Just when you thought it couldnt be worse for A-Rod
- The Pittsburgh Pirates, Rebuilding their Rebuildin...
- The Days of the Big Three Seem A Long Time Ago
- The Marlins, doing what they always do
- The Mets looking to be Amazin' or at least Acceptable
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