With changing of ownership and front office guys the Padres were the talk of the early off-season. Indeed, when "fire sale" popped up everyone assumed this was a total makeover for the team, ditching their high priced players and hoping to rebuild their anemic team and farm system. Well its March 31st and Jake Peavy and Brian Giles are still in Padres uniforms, and with some the exception of a few bargain bin pickups their offseason was remarkably quiet and ineffective.
The biggest loss of the season was undoubtedly the loss of Mr. Padre, Trevor Hoffman the career leader of saves. After a very messy divorce and refusal to pay him, he went off to the Brewers, leaving their so-so bullpen in even worse shape. This puts the burly rights Heath Bell into the closer job and its not looking so good. After an electric year in 07 where he struck out 107 in 93 innings and a stellar 2.02 ERA he plummeted to a 3.58 ERA with his strikeouts way down to 71. While he wasn't awful and he supposedly is in "the best shape of his life" just like half of guys out there in spring training, its no longer a lock in the ninth inning and more importantly they need to find someone to replicate his innings in the 7th and 8th innings.
The Padres also traded away Khalil Greene to the Cardinals, but as I have mentioned before this is pretty much addition by subtraction, with Greene taking his obscene .260OBP to greener pastures. However they did nothing to replace him despite the fact there were many cheap middle infielders like Orlando Hernandez and Orlando Hudson available for next to nothing. Indeed, the Padres added nothing of worth to their remarkably awful offense, leaving Brian Giles and Adrian Gonzalez with a bunch of stiffs in the lineup. They have another year of star prospect Chase Headly and Jody Geruit after a rebound year, but there's no sure bets here, its going to get even worse before it gets better at the plate for this team.
Finally the biggest move was really a non-move, that being keeping ace Jake Peavy. A great pitcher in his prime still, but after him it gets pretty dicey. Chris Young is back in the rotation after being out all of last year, but he has looked very bad this spring with an ever diminishing fastball and after him it gets even worse. Kevin Correia was picked up from the giants to start, but used primarily as a reliver he wasnt very good last year with a 6.05 ERA or 72ERA+, Josh Banks from the blue jays the year before is equally pitiful as well. They have Cha Seung Baek back from injury who proved to be effective at times and they have the incomprable Mark Prior, but god only knows what you'll get from him at this point.
This is a team that is bad and getting worse. Instead of trying to trade their valuable assets like Peavy to start rebuilding they held onto him and continue on their path to replicate their 99 loss season. CHONE projections have been rather kind to some of the new guys in the rotation, but that lineup is still pretty suspect. I give them a D for the off season, getting nothing of value accomplishing and destined for the bottom of the standings.
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About me
Just an out of work lawyer looking for work and spending the rest of my time reading, writing and taking everything I can in about the game I love, baseball.
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Some Key Terms to Know When Reading
I throw around a lot of numbers and stats so I figured I should probably explain some of them:
wOBA - a new one I'll be using, short for weighted on-base average is essentially an improvement on OPS. Scaled to average OBP (with .330 the league average) wOBA more properly weighs on-base percentage higher than slugging percentage and more accurately weighs extra base hits (a double isn't worth double of that of a single which is what SLG does) to give a better picture of a batter's worth.
.000/.000/.000 is the industry shorthand for the split stats for batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order, these are some of the more commonly used stats to indicate how productive a hitter is.
OPS - shorthand for On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging is becoming more in vogue in the mainstream media to get a better idea of the raw production of a hitter, instead of saying how often they get a hit OPS shows how productive those hits are.
BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in play, its pretty much what it says, how often that a batter puts in ball in play that it becomes a hit, its a stat that shows if a hitter is just having a lot of bad luck or a hot streak is just fluky. For instance a BABIP of .200 is considered unlucky its not that he's not hitting, he just isn't hitting where the fielders are not there.
OPS+ - as the name implies, OPS+ is OPS but with adjustments to park effects and other outliers to normalize the data. Indeed, as most people know some parks are harder to hit at than others, which this stat compensates for, 100 being the baseline of league average
wOBA - a new one I'll be using, short for weighted on-base average is essentially an improvement on OPS. Scaled to average OBP (with .330 the league average) wOBA more properly weighs on-base percentage higher than slugging percentage and more accurately weighs extra base hits (a double isn't worth double of that of a single which is what SLG does) to give a better picture of a batter's worth.
.000/.000/.000 is the industry shorthand for the split stats for batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order, these are some of the more commonly used stats to indicate how productive a hitter is.
OPS - shorthand for On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging is becoming more in vogue in the mainstream media to get a better idea of the raw production of a hitter, instead of saying how often they get a hit OPS shows how productive those hits are.
BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in play, its pretty much what it says, how often that a batter puts in ball in play that it becomes a hit, its a stat that shows if a hitter is just having a lot of bad luck or a hot streak is just fluky. For instance a BABIP of .200 is considered unlucky its not that he's not hitting, he just isn't hitting where the fielders are not there.
OPS+ - as the name implies, OPS+ is OPS but with adjustments to park effects and other outliers to normalize the data. Indeed, as most people know some parks are harder to hit at than others, which this stat compensates for, 100 being the baseline of league average
WAR - Wins Above Replacement, as its name suggests, provides an exact number of wins a particular player is worth above what your average AAA player, or replacement player would provide in his absence. Although this is a very difficult stat to explain (I don't totally get it personally) the stat is beautifully simple in that it provides a precise value of either a pitcher or hitter to his particular team, which enables teams to monetize their worth and properly assign a dollar value.
ERA+ - similar to OPS+ its a more highly sophisticated way of evaluating a pitcher's performance adjusted for park effects, this also is on a numerical basis with 100 as league average.
FIP - short for fielding independent pitching, FIP measures the only aspects of the game that a pitcher has total control over, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Scaled to ERA, FIP gives a truer indication of a pitcher's true talent by removing the luck apparent with balls in play.
WHIP - Walks and Hits per innings pitched, a little more well known stat, but a good indicator of how effective a pitcher is. Chances are if a guy is walking a lot of guys and giving up a hot of hits, he's not pitching all that well.
xFIP- a variation of FIP which normalizes home run rates as a way to discount aberrational home run rates that are either too high or too low to reasonably sustain.
UZR- Short of Ultimate Zone Rating, this is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined. This is a difficult stat to understand because it's not one of those stats you can figure out at home, because it includes a bevy of factors including park effects and speed. As a consequence, its not a perfect stat, but its the best defensive stat we have. Also seen as UZR/150 is the Ultimate Zone rating per 150 games.
RngR - Range Runs is defined as the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity. Also not a perfect fielding stat, but one of the many fielding stats that help as as fans get a fuller picture of a player's defensive prowess.
ERA+ - similar to OPS+ its a more highly sophisticated way of evaluating a pitcher's performance adjusted for park effects, this also is on a numerical basis with 100 as league average.
FIP - short for fielding independent pitching, FIP measures the only aspects of the game that a pitcher has total control over, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Scaled to ERA, FIP gives a truer indication of a pitcher's true talent by removing the luck apparent with balls in play.
WHIP - Walks and Hits per innings pitched, a little more well known stat, but a good indicator of how effective a pitcher is. Chances are if a guy is walking a lot of guys and giving up a hot of hits, he's not pitching all that well.
xFIP- a variation of FIP which normalizes home run rates as a way to discount aberrational home run rates that are either too high or too low to reasonably sustain.
UZR- Short of Ultimate Zone Rating, this is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined. This is a difficult stat to understand because it's not one of those stats you can figure out at home, because it includes a bevy of factors including park effects and speed. As a consequence, its not a perfect stat, but its the best defensive stat we have. Also seen as UZR/150 is the Ultimate Zone rating per 150 games.
RngR - Range Runs is defined as the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity. Also not a perfect fielding stat, but one of the many fielding stats that help as as fans get a fuller picture of a player's defensive prowess.
About Me
- burnsie77
- Morristown, NJ, United States
- I write and read everything I can about baseball and have some thoughts about it.
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- For all the talk of change, Padres looking remarka...
- "Rocktober" Seems a Looooong Time Ago
- The San Francisco Giants hoping to win a lot of 1-...
- For the Dodgers, its a few steps foward and a few ...
- Curt Schilling, Douchebag? Yes. Hall of Famer? Yes.
- The Cubs Hoping Not to Blow it Again this year
- The Only Baseball Video Game You Need
- I am very glad this guy isn't a yankee anymore
- Astros poised to be even shittier than last year
- Injuries, injuries, everywhere
- After Pujols, many questions remain for Cardinals
- After magical season, brewers at crossroads
- Hope for the future in Cincinnati
- Miracle on the Diamond
- The reason for my vanishing
- Just when you thought it couldnt be worse for A-Rod
- The Pittsburgh Pirates, Rebuilding their Rebuildin...
- The Days of the Big Three Seem A Long Time Ago
- The Marlins, doing what they always do
- The Mets looking to be Amazin' or at least Acceptable
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2009
(123)
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March
(20)
- For all the talk of change, Padres looking remarka...
- "Rocktober" Seems a Looooong Time Ago
- The San Francisco Giants hoping to win a lot of 1-...
- For the Dodgers, its a few steps foward and a few ...
- Curt Schilling, Douchebag? Yes. Hall of Famer? Yes.
- The Cubs Hoping Not to Blow it Again this year
- The Only Baseball Video Game You Need
- I am very glad this guy isn't a yankee anymore
- Astros poised to be even shittier than last year
- Injuries, injuries, everywhere
- After Pujols, many questions remain for Cardinals
- After magical season, brewers at crossroads
- Hope for the future in Cincinnati
- Miracle on the Diamond
- The reason for my vanishing
- Just when you thought it couldnt be worse for A-Rod
- The Pittsburgh Pirates, Rebuilding their Rebuildin...
- The Days of the Big Three Seem A Long Time Ago
- The Marlins, doing what they always do
- The Mets looking to be Amazin' or at least Acceptable
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March
(20)
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