New York Nine

                Well I can’t say I expected this to happen.  Last Friday night, while most of us (myself included) were out enjoying the start of the weekend, Yankees GM Brian Cashman and Seattle Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik were busy pulling off one of the biggest and most surprising trades of the offseason, with the Yankees dealing uber-prospect catcher/DH Jesus Montero and pitcher Hector Noesi for the hard throwing 23 year old Michael Pineda and 19 year old pitcher Jose Campos.  On its face, this trade stands out from most because it’s a clear ‘pure baseball trade;’ motivated by comparative needs of the teams, both GM parted with some of the best young players in the game in hopes of improving a glaring weakness of their club, but will they work?  To be sure, trading young players that are long on potential but low on experience always carries a great deal of risk of not panning out, but given the relative skill set of the players involved it seems very likely that the trade could dramatically improve the fortunes of both the Yankees and Mariners in both the long and short term.

             At least for most Yankee fans, the name most recognizable involved in this trade is surely the much-hyped and controversial catching prospect Jesus Montero.  For the past few years prospect experts and analysts alike have touted the young catcher’s skill with the bat and given this pedigree it’s not hard to see why the Mariners would be so anxious to acquire him.  Indeed, coming off a year where Seattle had the worst offense in all of baseball by a wide margin, the Mariners are in dire need of a hitter in the middle of the lineup and Jesus certainly fits the bill.  In his career in the minors, Jesus showed an elite bat at every level, slugging over .500 at every level (except rookie ball), getting on base at a clip of .348 or better all while hitting well over .300.  To be certain, given these numbers it’s easy to see why Baseball America, ESPN’s Keith Law and virtually every other prospect expert listed him as a top three prospect for the last three years because the guy simply hits everywhere and anywhere.  And in fact Jesus has shown (albeit in a limited sample) that he can mash major league pitchers too, hitting an impressive .406wOBA with four home runs this September, of which three of them were to the opposite field.  This last fact bodes particularly well for Seattle due in part to their home park, Safeco Field’s dimensions, which is actually much easier to hit to right field; by being able to avoid Safeco’s rather cavernous left field, Montero looks poised to hit well despite leaving the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium.  Nevertheless, despite Jesus’ prodigious power and talent with the stick, there remain concerns as to where he can actually play in the field.  As I have mentioned in earlier articles, Montero has been consistently given low marks for his defensive acumen as a catcher, with many scouts pointing to his lack of quickness, bad footwork, and most importantly an elongated throwing motion that makes him rather slow on the relay throw.  And in truth, despite Brian Cashman’s statements to the contrary, it seems that the Yankees were not all that optimistic about his future as a catcher either, as evidenced by their usage of Jesus in the majors, catching only a handful of innings and not looking particularly good doing it.  At the moment, Jack Zduriencik maintains that Jesus’ future remains at catcher, however absent a dramatic turnaround, with Justin Smoak entrenched at first base Jesus seems destined to a career as a Designated hitter.  If this is the case, Jesus will quite clearly provide the Mariners with the pop they so desperately need at a very cheap price (Montero doesn’t become a free agent for six years) however his relative value will be significantly decreased if he can’t contribute in some significant way in the field.

                Of course, Yankees GM Brian Cashman wouldn’t give up a prospect of Jesus’ caliber or anyone, and by all accounts it seems clear that he got bang for his buck by acquiring the 6’7 right hander Michael Pineda.  Originally not supposed to even make the team last year, Pineda forced his way on after an electric spring training and did not disappoint with the major league club.   Indeed, although Pineda’s 3.74ERA won’t turn any heads, Michael showed that he has the makings of an Ace due to his devastating stuff and pinpoint control.   Thanks to his four seam fastball that he throws anywhere from 94 to 98MPH and a filthy slider, Pineda had the sixth best K% in baseball with 24.9% which was just tenths of a decimal less than MVP Justin Verlander; however arguably more importantly Pineda does it with great control, walking only 7.9%, giving him a K/BB ratio of 3.15.  Of course, detractors will likely point to Pineda’s home and road ERA (2.92/4.40ERA) as evidence that he’s not a true Ace and moreso a product of the spacious confines of Safeco Field, however a closer look at his BABIP and left of base % demonstrates that these spits are not indicative of his true talent.  Looking more closely at his home and road splits, Pineda actually had a lower FIP away from Safeco (3.26 to 3.62), a lower walk rate 7.0% to 9.1%) and a lower home run to fly ball ratio (the amount of fly balls hit that turn into home runs which was 7.8% to 10.5%) than he did at home.  In truth, the reason for his superficially worse numbers away from Safeco is essentially bad luck, as evidenced by his higher BABIP (.286 to .220) as well as the percentage of runners who he left on base (64.4% to 77.5%) away from Safeco.  Although there is no guarantee that these numbers will regress back to the mean, statistical analysis has shown that these splits are generally unsustainable, and as a consequence any concerns that Pineda was doing it by smoke and mirrors is just plain wrong.  With a big frame and great stuff and control the Yankees appear to have finally found a worthy number two pitcher to slot behind CC Sabbathia that they so desperately needed.   Of course, with any young pitcher Pineda is not without his concerns, particularly his 45% fly ball rate (one of the top five in baseball last year) which will likely result in more home runs in hitter friendly Yankee Stadium, however given the state of the Yankees rotation prior to the trade Pineda absolutely represents a dramatic improvement to a rather thin rotation.  Given his age (just turning 23 this month) and his price (Pineda isn’t a free agent for five more years) it’s hard to not see this as an improvement for the Yankees in both 2012 and beyond.

                The ‘winner’ of the Pineda-Montero trade remains unknown for now, but at present it seems like both of them won because they both  dealt from an area of strength to improve in an area their most glaring weakness.  For the Yankees, losing a homegrown player like Montero with his talent always hurts, but Yankee fans should be comforted in knowing that Mr. Cashman has compiled a ton of talented catcher prospects, including Austin Romine, JR Murphy and Gary Sanchez (Sanchez in particular has actually hit better than Montero at this stage in his career but can actually play defense) who are either ready or will be ready soon to take the mantle as Catcher of the Future.  The fact of the matter is as good as Montero is and as painful it will be to watch him mash for the next decade or so, the Yankees can live without him and by adding a potential ace the team will be ultimately better.  Add in Jose Campos, who at 19 already throws 97MPH and struck out 85 and walked 13 in 81 innings (also Seattle’s number five prospect) and you’ve got a chance to add two aces in the future.  Conversely for Seattle, while losing a potential Ace will hurt the Mariners, Seattle already has an Ace in Felix Hernandez and has many other great pitching prospects coming down the pike that are similarly talented as Pineda is.  Much like how the Yankees are with hitters, the Mariners can afford to give away a pitcher because they’re getting in return a guy who instantly becomes their most talented hitter on the team.  The result of this is a trade that looks poised to make both teams better, and as a baseball fan these are the kinds of trades I love.