The San Diego Padres are one of those teams that very few people are talking about these days, and that’s probably because nobody has the faintest idea of what they’re trying to do. To be sure, the days of the Padres dominating the NL West led by Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez are now a distant memory, with both players and indeed many of their established regulars gone, leaving the team without a discernible identity or clear direction for the future. Take for instance new General Manager Mr. Byrnes’ two most recent moves, trading Staff Ace Matt Latos to the Cincinnati Reds for Yonder Alsonso, Edinson Volquez, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger, and most recently trading for soon to be free agent outfielder Carlos Quentin for Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez; trading Latos before he becomes arbitration eligible suggests the Padres are trying to keep costs down while they retool and rebuild for the future, but then why would they take on an outfielder who made $5million last year and will be a free agent after 2012? Although new General Manager Josh Byrnes’ vision for the Padres future remains unclear, what is clear is that he is seeking any which way to increase the talent of his ballclub any way possible and is unafraid to forgo convention to do it.
Beginning first with the Matt Latos trade, Padres GM Byrnes undoubtedly gave up one of the best young and cost controlled starting pitchers in the game, however he can justify that loss by the sheer volume of talent he received in return. The centerpiece of the trade is most clearly the young lefty swinging first baseman Yonder Alonso and he looks to provide some sorely needed pop in a largely punchless Padres lineup. Indeed, despite finding limited playing time last year due to the presence of reigning NL MVP Joey Votto at first base, Alonso demonstrated his exceptional skill at the plate, hitting to the tune of .330/.398/.545 with a .409 wOBA over 50 games. Of course, this is just a small sample size, but Alonso’s minor league numbers suggest that he possesses the skills to succeed at the major league level, posting a OBP under .372 only once as a minor leaguer while hitting for a high average and decent power. Nevertheless, the move has been considered curious due to San Diego’s acquisition of first baseman Anthony Rizzo last year in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, but there are reasons to suggest that Alonso’s skills are a better fit for the Padres and their home park, Petco Park, the worst hitters park in the game. In particular, Alonso has demonstrated a significantly better eye at the plate throughout his career, walking at a rate of 11% compared to Rizzo’s 9.7%, as well as a significantly lower strikeout rate (15.1% compared to Rizzo’s 20.7%). Furthermore, although Alonso has displayed decidedly less power than the lefty swinging Rizzo, an analysis of park factors by Fangraphs.com shows Rizzo’s pull-happy swing will be hurt most by Petco; whereas Rizzo almost always pulls the ball to right field, the area of Petco that is the most damaging to a hitter’s power, Alonso has consistently shown to have power to the opposite field, prompting most analysts and scouts to predict that Alonso could be quite valuable providing 40-50 doubles by utilizing left center field. Ultimately, one of these first baseman will have to be moved in a trade, however due to Yonder’s superior skill set it seems likely that Mr. Rizzo will be getting the boot and Mr. Alonso will be the Padres first baseman for the long term.
In addition to help at first base, the Reds also acquired a long term solution at the catcher position in the Matt Latos trade by acquiring the Reds 1st round draft choice from 2010, Yasmani Grindal. Although still very young and blocked by Nick Hundley for the short term, Grindal looks to provide the Padres some sorely needed pop in the immediate future from one of the most difficult positions to get it. Still only 23, Yasmani has shown considerable prowess at the plate in his short career, hitting .333/.385/.500 in rookie ball only to quickly move up to AAA and dominate at every level with a line of .300/.401/.500 and 14 home runs between Single A, AA, and AAA. Of course, Yasmani will likely see a decline in power as he makes his way to Petco in the next few years, however his superior eye at the plate (13.3BB% career) will ensure that his value as a catcher remains high. Indeed, given the scarcity of catchers who can actually hit, Yasmani seems poised to be an invaluable asset for the Padres in the future in the field as well as at the plate. Although his value will likely not be comparable to what Matt Latos, a hard throwing righty starter with superb stuff would provide, he along with Alonso and the rest of the haul from Cincinnati arguably makes the Padres a much better team 2012 and beyond as a whole.
While the moves for Alonso and Yasmani are clearly seeking to improve the Padres in the long term, the move for Carlos Quentin is very clearly and very questionably for the short term. As stated above, Quentin, age 29, is a year away from free agency and will almost certainly be gone by the time that the Padres’ young farmhands are ready to contribute; nevertheless, given the rather limited value in consideration for Quentin, it can be argued that Byrnes was merely buying low on a hitter whose contributions he believes will be greater than that of the prospects given up. The Padres dealt two pitchers to the White Sox, right hander Simon Castro and lefty Pedro Hernandez, and while they will likely help in Chicago’s own rebuilding, neither is exactly a sure thing. In particular, Castro, 23 years old, the most highly touted prospect, has been anything but impressive recently, posting a 5.64 ERA in Triple A and didn’t look particularly good doing, striking out 94 in 115 innings but walking 34. Hernandez was better but not great either, with an 3.49 ERA and 94 strikeouts to 22 walks in 116 innings in Double A, resulting in Baseball America, the preeminent scouting magazine, to put neither of them in the Padres’ top ten prospect list even before the Latos trade. In truth, when looking at these rather unimpressive numbers it becomes clearer why Mr. Byrnes was willing to give up on both of these pitchers because of Quentin’s prodigious power, an area that San Diego clearly lacks. Although Carlos is well removed from his ridiculous 2008 season where he posted a .414wOBA due to a fluky increase in both batting average and on-base, Quentin has showed himself to be a reliable source of right handed power posting slugging percentages in the high .400s ever since. And while detractors will point to Petco’s cavernous outfield to suggest that Carlos’ power will disappear, in fact for right handed hitters Petco is almost neutral for right handed hitters with a park factor of 95 (courtesy of Stat Corner, a score of 100 is considered a completely neutral park to both hitters and pitchers, compared to a park factor of 59 for lefties). Thus, despite his flaws as a player, which include his poor batting eye and his mediocre to horrible fielding (he had a 1.7 UZR/150 in 2011 but averaged -31 UZR/150 for his career) Quentin provides the Padres with value (2.6WAR last year) to help the team compete in the short term, while simultaneously not hurting the team’s long term goals by holding onto their best talent on the farm.
Although neither of these moves will likely make the Padres a contender in 2012 or possibly even 2013, they are undoubtedly a more complete organization in both the short and long term. While neither of these moves when taken as a whole exhibit a true direction for the organization, it is sufficient to say that the Padres under Josh Byrnes have been primarily concerned with acquiring superior value, regardless of that value is long or short. As a consequence, despite a small fan-base and a home park that no free agent would dare sign with, the Padres are clearly putting themselves in a position to compete, and given the fluctuation in performance in the rest of their division, that just might be enough to keep them in the mix for the division crown for the next few years.
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