New York Nine

Baseball the way it was meant to be, down and dirty with brutally honest analysis

Monday, January 16, 2012

A Pure Baseball Trade


                Well I can’t say I expected this to happen.  Last Friday night, while most of us (myself included) were out enjoying the start of the weekend, Yankees GM Brian Cashman and Seattle Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik were busy pulling off one of the biggest and most surprising trades of the offseason, with the Yankees dealing uber-prospect catcher/DH Jesus Montero and pitcher Hector Noesi for the hard throwing 23 year old Michael Pineda and 19 year old pitcher Jose Campos.  On its face, this trade stands out from most because it’s a clear ‘pure baseball trade;’ motivated by comparative needs of the teams, both GM parted with some of the best young players in the game in hopes of improving a glaring weakness of their club, but will they work?  To be sure, trading young players that are long on potential but low on experience always carries a great deal of risk of not panning out, but given the relative skill set of the players involved it seems very likely that the trade could dramatically improve the fortunes of both the Yankees and Mariners in both the long and short term.
   
             At least for most Yankee fans, the name most recognizable involved in this trade is surely the much-hyped and controversial catching prospect Jesus Montero.  For the past few years prospect experts and analysts alike have touted the young catcher’s skill with the bat and given this pedigree it’s not hard to see why the Mariners would be so anxious to acquire him.  Indeed, coming off a year where Seattle had the worst offense in all of baseball by a wide margin, the Mariners are in dire need of a hitter in the middle of the lineup and Jesus certainly fits the bill.  In his career in the minors, Jesus showed an elite bat at every level, slugging over .500 at every level (except rookie ball), getting on base at a clip of .348 or better all while hitting well over .300.  To be certain, given these numbers it’s easy to see why Baseball America, ESPN’s Keith Law and virtually every other prospect expert listed him as a top three prospect for the last three years because the guy simply hits everywhere and anywhere.  And in fact Jesus has shown (albeit in a limited sample) that he can mash major league pitchers too, hitting an impressive .406wOBA with four home runs this September, of which three of them were to the opposite field.  This last fact bodes particularly well for Seattle due in part to their home park, Safeco Field’s dimensions, which is actually much easier to hit to right field; by being able to avoid Safeco’s rather cavernous left field, Montero looks poised to hit well despite leaving the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium.  Nevertheless, despite Jesus’ prodigious power and talent with the stick, there remain concerns as to where he can actually play in the field.  As I have mentioned in earlier articles, Montero has been consistently given low marks for his defensive acumen as a catcher, with many scouts pointing to his lack of quickness, bad footwork, and most importantly an elongated throwing motion that makes him rather slow on the relay throw.  And in truth, despite Brian Cashman’s statements to the contrary, it seems that the Yankees were not all that optimistic about his future as a catcher either, as evidenced by their usage of Jesus in the majors, catching only a handful of innings and not looking particularly good doing it.  At the moment, Jack Zduriencik maintains that Jesus’ future remains at catcher, however absent a dramatic turnaround, with Justin Smoak entrenched at first base Jesus seems destined to a career as a Designated hitter.  If this is the case, Jesus will quite clearly provide the Mariners with the pop they so desperately need at a very cheap price (Montero doesn’t become a free agent for six years) however his relative value will be significantly decreased if he can’t contribute in some significant way in the field.

                Of course, Yankees GM Brian Cashman wouldn’t give up a prospect of Jesus’ caliber or anyone, and by all accounts it seems clear that he got bang for his buck by acquiring the 6’7 right hander Michael Pineda.  Originally not supposed to even make the team last year, Pineda forced his way on after an electric spring training and did not disappoint with the major league club.   Indeed, although Pineda’s 3.74ERA won’t turn any heads, Michael showed that he has the makings of an Ace due to his devastating stuff and pinpoint control.   Thanks to his four seam fastball that he throws anywhere from 94 to 98MPH and a filthy slider, Pineda had the sixth best K% in baseball with 24.9% which was just tenths of a decimal less than MVP Justin Verlander; however arguably more importantly Pineda does it with great control, walking only 7.9%, giving him a K/BB ratio of 3.15.  Of course, detractors will likely point to Pineda’s home and road ERA (2.92/4.40ERA) as evidence that he’s not a true Ace and moreso a product of the spacious confines of Safeco Field, however a closer look at his BABIP and left of base % demonstrates that these spits are not indicative of his true talent.  Looking more closely at his home and road splits, Pineda actually had a lower FIP away from Safeco (3.26 to 3.62), a lower walk rate 7.0% to 9.1%) and a lower home run to fly ball ratio (the amount of fly balls hit that turn into home runs which was 7.8% to 10.5%) than he did at home.  In truth, the reason for his superficially worse numbers away from Safeco is essentially bad luck, as evidenced by his higher BABIP (.286 to .220) as well as the percentage of runners who he left on base (64.4% to 77.5%) away from Safeco.  Although there is no guarantee that these numbers will regress back to the mean, statistical analysis has shown that these splits are generally unsustainable, and as a consequence any concerns that Pineda was doing it by smoke and mirrors is just plain wrong.  With a big frame and great stuff and control the Yankees appear to have finally found a worthy number two pitcher to slot behind CC Sabbathia that they so desperately needed.   Of course, with any young pitcher Pineda is not without his concerns, particularly his 45% fly ball rate (one of the top five in baseball last year) which will likely result in more home runs in hitter friendly Yankee Stadium, however given the state of the Yankees rotation prior to the trade Pineda absolutely represents a dramatic improvement to a rather thin rotation.  Given his age (just turning 23 this month) and his price (Pineda isn’t a free agent for five more years) it’s hard to not see this as an improvement for the Yankees in both 2012 and beyond.

                The ‘winner’ of the Pineda-Montero trade remains unknown for now, but at present it seems like both of them won because they both  dealt from an area of strength to improve in an area their most glaring weakness.  For the Yankees, losing a homegrown player like Montero with his talent always hurts, but Yankee fans should be comforted in knowing that Mr. Cashman has compiled a ton of talented catcher prospects, including Austin Romine, JR Murphy and Gary Sanchez (Sanchez in particular has actually hit better than Montero at this stage in his career but can actually play defense) who are either ready or will be ready soon to take the mantle as Catcher of the Future.  The fact of the matter is as good as Montero is and as painful it will be to watch him mash for the next decade or so, the Yankees can live without him and by adding a potential ace the team will be ultimately better.  Add in Jose Campos, who at 19 already throws 97MPH and struck out 85 and walked 13 in 81 innings (also Seattle’s number five prospect) and you’ve got a chance to add two aces in the future.  Conversely for Seattle, while losing a potential Ace will hurt the Mariners, Seattle already has an Ace in Felix Hernandez and has many other great pitching prospects coming down the pike that are similarly talented as Pineda is.  Much like how the Yankees are with hitters, the Mariners can afford to give away a pitcher because they’re getting in return a guy who instantly becomes their most talented hitter on the team.  The result of this is a trade that looks poised to make both teams better, and as a baseball fan these are the kinds of trades I love.   

comments (0)

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Padres Seeking New Direction Under GM Byrnes



                 The San Diego Padres are one of those teams that very few people are talking about these days, and that’s probably because nobody has the faintest idea of what they’re trying to do.  To be sure, the days of the Padres dominating the NL West led by Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez are now a distant memory, with both players and indeed many of their established regulars gone, leaving the team without a discernible identity or clear direction for the future.  Take for instance new General Manager Mr. Byrnes’ two most recent moves, trading Staff Ace Matt Latos to the Cincinnati Reds for Yonder Alsonso, Edinson Volquez, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger, and most recently trading for soon to be free agent outfielder Carlos Quentin for Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez; trading Latos before he becomes arbitration eligible suggests the Padres are trying to keep costs down while they retool and rebuild for the future, but then why would they take on an outfielder who made $5million last year and will be a free agent after 2012?  Although new General Manager Josh Byrnes’ vision for the Padres future remains unclear, what is clear is that he is seeking any which way to increase the talent of his ballclub any way possible and is unafraid to forgo convention to do it. 

                Beginning first with the Matt Latos trade, Padres GM Byrnes undoubtedly gave up one of the best young and cost controlled starting pitchers in the game, however he can justify that loss by the sheer volume of talent he received in return.  The centerpiece of the trade is most clearly the young lefty swinging first baseman Yonder Alonso and he looks to provide some sorely needed pop in a largely punchless Padres lineup.  Indeed, despite finding limited playing time last year due to the presence of reigning NL MVP Joey Votto at first base, Alonso demonstrated his exceptional skill at the plate, hitting to the tune of .330/.398/.545 with a .409 wOBA over 50 games.  Of course, this is just a small sample size, but Alonso’s minor league numbers suggest that he possesses the skills to succeed at the major league level, posting a OBP under .372 only once as a minor leaguer while hitting for a high average and decent power.  Nevertheless, the move has been considered curious due to San Diego’s acquisition of first baseman Anthony Rizzo last year in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, but there are reasons to suggest that Alonso’s skills are a better fit for the Padres and their home park, Petco Park, the worst hitters park in the game.  In particular, Alonso has demonstrated a significantly better eye at the plate throughout his career, walking at a rate of 11% compared to Rizzo’s 9.7%, as well as a significantly lower strikeout rate (15.1% compared to Rizzo’s 20.7%).  Furthermore, although Alonso has displayed decidedly less power than the lefty swinging Rizzo, an analysis of park factors by Fangraphs.com shows Rizzo’s pull-happy swing will be hurt most by Petco; whereas Rizzo almost always pulls the ball to right field, the area of Petco that is the most damaging to a hitter’s power, Alonso has consistently shown to have power to the opposite field, prompting most analysts and scouts to predict that Alonso could be quite valuable providing 40-50 doubles by utilizing left center field.  Ultimately, one of these first baseman will have to be moved in a trade, however due to Yonder’s superior skill set it seems likely that Mr. Rizzo will be getting the boot and Mr. Alonso will be the Padres first baseman for the long term.

                In addition to help at first base, the Reds also acquired a long term solution at the catcher position in the Matt Latos trade by acquiring the Reds 1st round draft choice from 2010, Yasmani Grindal.  Although still very young and blocked by Nick Hundley for the short term, Grindal looks to provide the Padres some sorely needed pop in the immediate future from one of the most difficult positions to get it.  Still only 23, Yasmani has shown considerable prowess at the plate in his short career, hitting .333/.385/.500 in rookie ball only to quickly move up to AAA and dominate at every level with a line of .300/.401/.500 and 14 home runs between Single A, AA, and AAA.  Of course, Yasmani will likely see a decline in power as he makes his way to Petco in the next few years, however his superior eye at the plate (13.3BB% career) will ensure that his value as a catcher remains high.  Indeed, given the scarcity of catchers who can actually hit, Yasmani seems poised to be an invaluable asset for the Padres in the future in the field as well as at the plate.  Although his value will likely not be comparable to what Matt Latos, a hard throwing righty starter with superb stuff would provide, he along with Alonso and the rest of the haul from Cincinnati arguably makes the Padres a much better team 2012 and beyond as a whole.

                While the moves for Alonso and Yasmani are clearly seeking to improve the Padres in the long term, the move for Carlos Quentin is very clearly and very questionably for the short term.  As stated above, Quentin, age 29, is a year away from free agency and will almost certainly be gone by the time that the Padres’ young farmhands are ready to contribute; nevertheless, given the rather limited value in consideration for Quentin, it can be argued that Byrnes was merely buying low on a hitter whose contributions he believes will be greater than that of the prospects given up.  The Padres dealt two pitchers to the White Sox, right hander Simon Castro and lefty Pedro Hernandez, and while they will likely help in Chicago’s own rebuilding, neither is exactly a sure thing.  In particular, Castro, 23 years old, the most highly touted prospect, has been anything but impressive recently, posting a 5.64 ERA in Triple A and didn’t look particularly good doing, striking out 94 in 115 innings but walking 34.   Hernandez was better but not great either, with an 3.49 ERA and 94 strikeouts to 22 walks in 116 innings in Double A, resulting in Baseball America, the preeminent scouting magazine, to put neither of them in the Padres’ top ten prospect list even before the Latos trade.  In truth, when looking at these rather unimpressive numbers it becomes clearer why Mr. Byrnes was willing to give up on both of these pitchers because of Quentin’s prodigious power, an area that San Diego clearly lacks.    Although Carlos is well removed from his ridiculous 2008 season where he posted a .414wOBA due to a fluky increase in both batting average and on-base, Quentin has showed himself to be a reliable source of right handed power posting slugging percentages in the high .400s ever since.  And while detractors will point to Petco’s cavernous outfield to suggest that Carlos’ power will disappear, in fact for right handed hitters Petco is almost neutral for right handed hitters with a park factor of 95 (courtesy of Stat Corner, a score of 100 is considered a completely neutral park to both hitters and pitchers, compared to a park factor of 59 for lefties).  Thus, despite his flaws as a player, which include his poor batting eye and his mediocre to horrible fielding (he had a 1.7 UZR/150 in 2011 but averaged -31 UZR/150 for his career) Quentin provides the Padres with value (2.6WAR last year) to help the team compete in the short term, while simultaneously not hurting the team’s long term goals by holding onto their best talent on the farm.
  
              Although neither of these moves will likely make the Padres a contender in 2012 or possibly even 2013, they are undoubtedly a more complete organization in both the short and long term.  While neither of these moves when taken as a whole exhibit a true direction for the organization, it is sufficient to say that the Padres under Josh Byrnes have been primarily concerned with acquiring superior value, regardless of that value is long or short.  As a consequence, despite a small fan-base and a home park that no free agent would dare sign with, the Padres are clearly putting themselves in a position to compete, and given the fluctuation in performance in the rest of their division, that just might be enough to keep them in the mix for the division crown for the next few years.  

comments (0)

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)