I should probably be studying for my legal research exam right now, but today is Opening Day in Major League Baseball and I would certainly be remiss if I didn’t post something today. No “real” article per se, but I figured it’s high time I give you my projected standings for each division before the season really kicks off. It’s not necessarily as scientific as say PECOTA or Marcel ratings (if you’ve never heard of those words don’t worry, you’re normal) but I have taken them in consideration, as well as my own analysis in deciding who goes where. As last year, I’m not picking who wins in the playoffs because as the last ten years or so have shown us the playoffs is a crapshoot; all you need to do is take a look at the 2007 Rockies team to see that talent is not necessarily a great indicator of playoff success. Anyways here is my take on the AL with a little analysis.
AL East
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees – Wild Card
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays
If anyone is wondering, no, this isn’t a reverse jinx on the Yankees, I’m no Bill Simmons. The fact the of the matter is the Red Sox are a damn good team, they have great starting pitching, a great bullpen, excellent defense, and a lineup that maybe doesn’t have a “big bopper” like Manny was for them, but they’re deep and talented at virtually every position. The Yankees in contrast aren’t that far off, their starting pitching is damn close and their lineup is definitely better, but the questions in the bullpen, as well as the high number of older players in integral roles. While guys like Jeter and Jorge were great last year, they’re a year older and a little more susceptible to injury and decline, and that is the difference for me. As for the rest of the division, the Rays are very solid, with great defense and a good lineup, but their bullpen has a lot of questions, and while their rotation is deep, but they’re going to need big years from Garza and Shields, and neither of those guys was particularly good last year. The O’s are certainly improving, with a great young core of guys, but with the top three teams the way they are, and their starting pitching being so young and unproven its going to be a long season. The Blue Jays, well, hey you still have hockey for a few more months, right?
AL Central
1. Twins
2. White Sox
3. Tigers
4. Indians
5. Royals
Even with the loss of Joe Nathan at closer, the Twins are still the class of this division by a long shot, thanks largely to a solid but unspectacular rotation, great lineup, and solid defense. The White Sox arguably have the best rotation 1 through 5 in the division, but their bullpen is pretty horrible and their lineup, full of guys who don’t get on base like Alex Rios and Alexei Ramirez are going to run into a lot of outs. The Tigers will certainly be a competitive team in the long run thanks to the additions of Max Scherzer and Austin Jackson, but the losses of Granderson and Edwin Jackson will be sorely felt. And yet even more than these loses, the late season swoon showed that this team is a very flawed one that has a long way to go. As for the Indians and the Royals, expect them to be the punching bags for the rest of the Junior Circuit because frankly they don’t have a lot going on this year, aside from the Royals’ Zach Grienke.
AL West
1. Angels
2. Rangers
3. Mariners
4. Athletics
Believe me when I say it pains me to put the Angels here at the top of the standings because I hate them. Not only do they usually embarrass my Yankees every time they play (except for the ALCS) but sabermetrically they always seem to defy the odds. Every year they significantly outperform their expected win-loss record even though they seem to lose talented player after talented player and it pisses me off that they seem to figure it out and everyone sucks Mike Scoscia’s cock for working his magic. I digress. I love this Rangers team, loaded with young talent in the rotation and a great lineup, but they’re just not ready for prime time yet. Guys like Netfli Feliz and Derek Holland are great young pitchers, but they’re not ready to step in and be great, and as a result the Rangers will lean heavily on Rich Harden, a guy who’s never healthy, and Scott Feldman, a nice pitcher, but probably not as a good as last year. The Mariners are the media darlings this year with the addition of Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins and their “revolutionary” pitching and defense approach, but I don’t see enough pitching or hitting here to make them contenders. They have little or no power in the lineup, and the rotation after the big two is at best questionable and at worst horrible. Hell, I’m obsessed with baseball and I think I can name one other starter after Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee, and he’s not that good (Ryan Rowland-Smith); that does not bode well for them. As for the A’s, the signing of Ben Sheets is a good one, and their young rotation after him with Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill looks to get much better, but that lineup is beyond terrible, and that bullpen after Andrew Bailey is dicey.
I should have the National League up by tomorrow, but with my schedule who knows.
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