New York Nine

Baseball the way it was meant to be, down and dirty with brutally honest analysis

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

The Jeter Post



I don’t claim to speak for anyone else, but at least for me reading and hearing about the Derek Jeter contract negotiations was a rather unpleasant one as a Yankee fan.  Of course, all the verbal jousting by both sides is over now and next season will be sooner than we know it and we’ll be talking about baseball again, but I couldn’t help that feel that this moment in time in the history of Derek Jeter as a player, and myself and my own baseball viewing experience has changed ever so slightly.  I’m being a bit dramatic, but in truth the process that has occurred during Jeter’s first foray in the free agent market has undoubtedly changed him as a player and the public’s perception of him as evidenced by his remarks to the media yesterday. 

Let me give you a little background to my theory as to why it has changed by framing the change within my own take on Derek and what makes his public image so highly regarded.  In truth, Derek has always been the kind of athlete that broadcasters and talking heads on sports shows love to gush about because he’s this sort of platonic form of an athlete.   By that I mean Derek seemed so perfect and unaffected; on the field he has exuded excellence and been the consummate winner and off the field he said and did all the right things, as far as we knew, and this was by design.  Unlike so many athletes today who saturate our lives, Derek has always strove to be the guy who’s a boring quote.  Indeed, Derek for the most par has never said anything controversial or did anything scandalous, save for maybe being spotted with a  starlet or two on his arm, and because of that Jeter has always been the guy people love to put on a pedestal and marvel at what a great man he is, but what do we truly know about Derek Jeter the Man?  Indeed, Derek has always guarded his privacy and his private life carefully, never giving away anything about what makes him tick or what it’s like to be Derek Jeter, and because of it we have been left to fill in the blanks on what kind of guy he is, but I think these negotiations have revealed the veneer ever so slightly.  In fact, I think what these negotiations have showed is that like so many other athletes before him,  what has made Derek so great all these years, is an unflappable belief in himself and unquenching desire to strive to be the best.  This belief in his own excellence has helped propel Derek to the player he has become, but I also believe this is what has made this contract negotiation so contentious.

Out of the Jeter camp we kept hearing about he was “baffled” by the Yankees offer of 3 years $45million (a deal that kept him the highest paid middle infielder in the game) and how he wanted A-Rod money and A-Rod years for his next deal, and part of me wished it was just a bunch of nonsense, but I think that these expectations by Jeter and his people were a reflection of Jeter’s unwavering belief in himself as among the game’s best today.  Of course, it’s entirely possible that Derek will have a big bounce-back year next year and hit .320 and put up MVP numbers like he did the year before, but I think you’d be hard pressed to say that Jeter was the same guy last season.  Time after time Derek it was apparaent that couldn’t make the seemingly easy play to his right or strike out and hit into another double play in a big situation (he lead all of baseball in outs) and it all added up to his worst year at the age of 36; its possible he improves, but at that age the chances are getting slimmer.  And yet despite this apparent decline it is clear Derek and his camp saw this as a blip on the screen, an aberration that will be quickly fixed next year in no time, and as a result he should be continued to be paid like one of the game’s best when he clearly is not.  Certainly, as a professional athlete you need to be confident in yourself in order to achieve greatness, but at what point does pride because foolishness?

I bring all this up because I just saw Derek being interview by Sweeny Murti on the MLB Network (who knew he was on there? Another nice pickup for a great network) just now and I realized that much of this is true about Derek, but I can’t say I feel the same way about it.  As you can imagine from what I said above I’ve been strongly on management’s side on this negotiations and thought that the original deal was a very reasonable deal for a 36 year old shortstop, if not overly generous, but when he spoke I couldn’t help but feel bad about it.  I’m sure it helped that Derek was talking to Murti, a guy who’s been the WFAN’s Yankee beat guy forever, but what I saw in his few lines was that the veneer was almost pulled away entirely to reveal a man with a seriously bruised ego.  Derek had never in his entire career had to deal with the notion that he wasn’t all that good and the realities of a business that can be harsh to players in their decline phase and I could see in his eyes how it hurt him.  I realize that sounds stupid, and after all the guy did get $17million a year so he’s not exactly getting fleeced, but I saw a guy who realized he was on the other side of the hill on a place where the sun doesn’t shine quite so bright and that fact I found out bummed out me nearly as much as it did Derek.  I mean this is Derek Fucking Jeter here, this is the guy I have been watching since I’ve been since freaking fifth grade, the guy who ALWAYS won and who ALWAYS got the job done when the Yankees needed him for my entire adult life, and now he’s an old man, he’s a washed up actor who hasn’t figured out that he’s not the star of the show anymore and I can’t help but be sad about that.   Sure, he very well could have a solid year next year be a productive player in an all-star lineup where he just needs to help carry the load, but it won’t be the same.  No, things may look the same, and Derek will go out there take his spot in leadoff and take the field like he did for all those other seasons, but that Derek Jeter is gone for good.  I don’t expect that to change how I feel about the Yankees, but it sure will be different, for us the fans and Derek.   

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Tuesday, August 10, 2010

The Showalter Effect


To anyone who’s had to endure watching a Baltimore Orioles game this year or really any of the last fourteen since their last season it is easy to see how truly terrible this team has been. Despite having a roster replete with young talented players like Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Brian Matsuz to name a few, it seemed that the team played with a sort of listlessness and hopelessness all season which has made many question why these young guys were considered so promising after all. Game after game, it seemed that the Orioles have done their best to lose ballgames every which way, whether it be bad pitching, bad fielding, or bad situational hitting, and in the process becoming the worst team in baseball. Sure, the odds were against this team playing in arguably the hardest division in baseball, but by all accounts the team has fallen short of even modest expectations of improvement or progression; it was clearly time for Baltimore management to make a change. That change came in the form of a new skipper, Buck Showalter, and it is clear early on that his presence has made a difference from the get-go. After never going better than 5-4 on a home stand the O’s have gone a surprising 6-1 since Buck’s arrival, and by all accounts have renewed the fight and the spirit of the formerly hopeless and hapless O’s. To be sure, no one is expecting this to be the beginning of a dramatic turnaround this season, but when considering Showalter’s history and philosophy all signs point to his signing to being a turning point for this franchise that will lead to bigger and better things.


When one looks at Showalter’s history as a manager it is clear from both his record and the later success his teams go onto that his presence has helped a few organizations in his time. Beginning with my Yankees in 1992, Showalter took a franchise that was floundering in doldrums of the AL East to quickly a team in the playoffs, making the wild card in 1995 with a 79-65 record. Of course, the next year Joe Torre would lead the team to its first World Series since 1978, but this was clearly Buck’s team. In the absence of Steinbrenner who was banned from the game, along with General Manager Gene Michael Buck put the pieces in place for a team that could winning immediately because of his eye on statistics;

We were looking at hitter-pitcher match-ups way back when. I was keeping them in the minor leagues and when I first started managing the Yankees you had matchups against guys and where they hit the ball. It was an advance scout doing it. Now a lot of people are taking their advance scouts off the road and doing certain things off the TV screen and whatever, but the problem with that is certain things go on in a game that you can only get from being there and from watching off the ball. I challenge guys all the time to be involved in watching off the ball, in the dugout, during batting practice, during infield, and their interaction with teammates. It paints a story for you every night if you'll just watch things other than the game itself. The use of data has evolved, but there are very few things that have come in where people go, “Wow, I've never thought about that.” And you never confuse change with a lack of respect for tradition .

By trading for guys like Paul O’Neill and drafting guys like Bernie Williams and Derek Jeter, Buck helped build the dynasty that would go on to dominate the latter part of the 1990s. The same is true of his next team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, a new franchise that he took from winning 65 games to 100 in one season. Again, ultimately the team would part ways with Buck after the 2000 season and eventually win the World Series against the Yankees, but much like his former team it was his team who won that season and played his way with his players. Clearly, his career managerial record, nearly 900 wins and an above .500 winning percentage, as well as the success of his teams following speak for themselves. Buck has firmly established himself as the right manager to help turn around floundering franchises and give them an identity and a winning attitude; such traits are precisely what Baltimore needs right now.

Of course, Buck clearly has an impact on young players helping them develop and grow, but Showalter does not rely on the force of his personality alone. Indeed, as evidenced by the quote above, Buck has distinguished himself as a manager with a keen eye for knowing what makes a team better by embracing the “Moneyball” mantra of statistics. Recently, Hardball Times unearthed several interesting statistics about Buck’s managing style that shows displays his reliance on stats and his success from them, notably his ability to put high on-base guys at the top of his order, routinely being at the top of the league in OBP in the one and two lineup slots ;

Year Team No. 1 No. 2

1992 NYY 0.328 0.328 0.329

1993 NYY 0.353 0.354 0.345

1994 NYY 0.374 0.388 0.420

1995 NYY 0.357 0.359 0.409

1998 ARI 0.314 0.340 0.306

1999 ARI 0.347 0.326 0.382

2000 ARI 0.333 0.311 0.353

2003 TEX 0.330 0.324 0.347

2004 TEX 0.329 0.354 0.349

2005 TEX 0.329 0.321 0.385

2006 TEX 0.338 0.361 0.356

To the untrained eye, this may appear to be unimportant, but it reveals Buck’s awareness to need to get guys on base in front of run producers to score runs. By putting more guys on base in front of them, Buck’s teams score more runs and in turn win more games. This stress of the virtues of patience has in turn worn off on his players and resulted in producing fourteen players whose single season home run bests under Buck, including Jim Leyritz, Steve Finley and Jay Bell; hell even Gary Matthews Jr., hit under him (although steroids probably had more to do with that). To be sure, the proof is in the numbers, and the numbers show that players have responded to his leadership and improved significantly.

History suggests that Buck will succeed in Baltimore and in truth it appears to already be happening. With six wins in seven games, three of them of the walk-off variety, the team just looks so much better, pitching well, hitting well, and playing with a renewed vigor that Baltimore hasn’t seen in some time. Of course, this is an absurdly small sample size so far and the team could very easily regress right back to the team that has become the laughingstock of the junior circuit; after all its not like he’s gone and replaced all those stiffs with actual ballplayers. Nevertheless, through the force of his personality and his highly intelligent managerial style, it seems clear that Baltimore will only improve under his tutelage and quite possibly regain some respectability to a once proud franchise.

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Friday, July 16, 2010

A Tale of Two Baseball Towns (Part 2)


After my experience in Baltimore last month my feelings about baseball on the beltway were undoubtedly a little disheartened. To be sure, I knew that the experience of watching baseball for any team aside from the Yankees was going to be rather different and most likely not so rosy, but the contrast to Baltimore was appalling. Any semblance of hope or excitement of the game seemed to have vanished from their sports consciousness and in its place remained a general malaise of despair. Thankfully, I am fortunate enough to live near two baseball teams in Northern Virginia and the team by the Potamac, the Washington Nationals, has presented a much brighter and hopeful glimpse of baseball fandom. As I stated before, Washington, D.C. is hardly a great baseball town because it lacks a rich history or a dedicated fanbase and the hopes of changing that were not great initially. The Senators (both incarnations) had long left town by the time the Expos moved down here, a team that has been notoriously bad and cheap, and subsequently there was very little appetite for the game. This is because by all accounts, D.C. was then and is now a fervent football town; Washingtonians love themselves some Redskins football, and regardless of how much Dan Synder screws things up and makes them a laughingstock they care about that team 365 days a year. However, a new star in the making has emerged for the Washington Nationals and has brought hope to the team and created a great deal of excitement and good feelings about our national pastime. His name is Stephen Strasburg, you may have heard of him if you’ve heard anything about sports recently, and his arrival on the big stage has transformed sports landscape here in D.C., and brought hope to a formerly hopeless sports town.




This past July 4th weekend I attended my first Nationals game, also against the Mets, where Strasburg was pitching, and my experience at the game could not have been more different than the one I had in Baltimroe. Of course, it’s really not fair to compare a game by the Orioles pitched by one of the worst starting pitchers in the game right now (Millwood has an embarrassing 5.77ERA) to the hottest pitching prospect in recent years because the expectations are so different. Truly, who gets excited about a guy pitching to a 5.77 ERA? While this may be true and the expectations are different, as time as gone on I have seen these games to both represent the zeitgeist of the team at this time; these games serve as a microcosm for where the team is heading and the pulse of the fan base. While Baltimore’s prospects have fared poorly and overpaid veterans have failed to deliver and provide no hope, in Washington the hope and excitement is palatable. From the time I got onto the Metro to the time I arrived I was surrounded by people of all ages dressed top to bottom in National Red, excited and anxious to see the great Strasburg pitch on a beautiful (if not sweltering) afternoon. Indeed, as someone who takes the metro everyday to work this summer I’m used to be crammed like a sardine everyday on my commute, but this was unprecedented; the metro stations were literally packed to the gills with fans hoping to get to the game early. By all accounts my experience here was dramatically juxtaposed to my experience in Baltimore; everyone in town knew about Strasburg and the promise he had and they were ready, these people wanted to be baseball fans and this kid was their chance.



When I finally got to the stadium the fans there did not disappoint my expectations that had been built up on my 50 minute metro ride to the Navy Yard at all. Washington also has a new stadium, Nationals Park, although it has hardly gotten the same acclaim that Camden Yards has had showered on it over the years, but for my money it did not disappoint. The actual structure of the stadium was rather unimpressive, but the buzz around the streets surrounding the stadium and in the park itself made it somewhere that you wanted to be that day. Everywhere you went the streets and hallways were packed, the bars overflowing with young and old ready for a day of baseball and sun. In the park, the large bar in the middle and indeed everywhere was full of people coming and going, giving it the feeling of a party of sorts with a few thousand of your closest friends and that feeling did not dissipate with the beginning of the game.



Despite the buildup of the game, Strasburg pitching, a FOX national broadcast with everyone’s favorite broadcast team of Joe Buck and Tim McCarver (that was sarcastic to those who couldn’t pick it up) the game itself left something to be desired. Mired in the unbelievable heat, the Great Strasburg looked uncomfortable and unsettled, battling himself and the elements as much as the Mets hitters for five innings, however this did not diminish the atmosphere of the game. While there was a loud vocal Mets minority (as Mets fans are wont to be) the Nats fans endured the heat and cheered on their Savior to gut through his outing, which he did allowing only two runs in five innings despite a number of walks and hits that were rather uncharacteristic of him. And even after his departure the majority of the fans remained, hoping to see their team break through the Mets soft bullpen, which it did finally against my least favorite reliever, Francisco Rodriguez (seriously K-Rod, you throw 88-90 now, you kind of blow, spare me the gyrations on the mound). All and all it was a big day for the Nats and Nats baseball fandom as well. Unlike the brow-beaten fans of Baltimore, the Nats fans wanted to hope and were willing to see Strasburg struggle and not lose all despair; they fought back in the end and their patience was rewarded.



Although this Nationals team has a lot of work to do before they’re really in competition with the big dogs of the Senior Circuit (their rotation after Strasburg is still iffy and their lineup has some glaring holes) but at the very least hope springs eternal for baseball in Washington D.C. Armed with Strasburg and now Bryce Harper, a prospect Sports Illustrated called the “LeBron James of Baseball,” (in regards to talent and not him being an arrogant prick like LeBron) the Nationals are laying a promising foundation of young talent that is already showing some success at the major league level. Such boundless possibilities with such talented players have made Washington yearn to have what so many other cities in America have and become a great baseball town. It remains to see whether these hopes come to fruition or if Strasburg and Harper can live up to such lofty expectations, but at the very least the groundswell of support has begun and the possibility of a better tomorrow has come into focus here in our Nation’s Capitol.

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Thursday, July 15, 2010

A Tale of Two Baseball Towns (Part 1)




Procrastination is indeed a slippery slope.  For many months I plugged along writing regularly about the game I love, but then finals come along, and then moving my mom out, and the new job, and all of sudden its July and I haven’t written in months, what happened?  Well today I’m starting to fight the urge to be lazy and do nothing after I get back from work (something that I forgot how awesome it was and enjoyed completely) and start sharing some of my experiences as a New York baseball transplant by the beltway in D.C.  To be sure, living in the Greatest City in the World and feeling like the center of the universe makes it easy to forget that the rest of the country doesn’t care all that much about what goes on in New York.  Indeed, each city has its own unique culture and interests and in turn its own sports teams and while it may seem like everyone cares what the Yankees or Mets are doing, a lot more couldn’t give a damn.  Clearly, New York is a great baseball town and has been so for decades, but other places simply don’t have the great tradition of winning or loyalty of their fan base, whether that be because baseball is new there like in the case of Washington (at least in terms of the Nationals) or because their team just blows (the Orioles) and because of that you have two very different types of baseball fans.  I’ve had the good fortune of being able to visit both stadiums this summer, unintentionally both games were against the Mets, and was struck by how different each town was from New York in their feelings toward baseball and in turn got a better portrait of baseball fandom in America.
The first game I attended down in the DC area was last month I went to the Mets-Orioles game last month and suffice to say I was a little underwhelmed.  I had seen countless games on television at Camden Yards and was struck by its beauty and charm.  The first of the new wave of retro stadiums in 1995, Camden Yards immediately became the stadium by which all other new parks were measured against, balancing the classic style of the old ballparks with modern amenities perfectly.  Unfortunately for Baltimore, from what I could tell the bloom is off the rose at Camden Yards because the charm has seemingly worn off and the fans have stopped showing up.  Despite being an interleague game, the kind that Commissioner Bud Selig promised would boost attendance and revitalize the game (my feelings on this is for another column) the stadium was virtually empty, save for a few rather vocal sections of Mets fans.  Of course, there were some Baltimore fans in attendance, but from the very beginning a sinking feeling of hopelessness could be felt throughout the park.  And in truth who could blame these fans, fans who had endured losing seasons every year since 1996, with an owner who was constantly meddling and making bad deals and trades that turned a once proud winning franchise into the AL East’s punching bag.  As someone who’s never had to endure this sort of sports misery I cannot imagine what it must be like to have to put up with such depths of ineptitude and remain loyal to your team, but I have to imagine it must be gut wrenching.  And sure enough, the sinking feeling of impending doom came to fruition rather quickly, as the erstwhile “ace” of the Orioles, Kevin Millwood, got smacked around like an old shoe, making bums like the incomparable Jeff Francoeur look like Roberto Clemente, and an overall light hitting Mets team into the 1927 Yankees for eight runs in the first two innings.  I could give you the gruesome details, but I’ll spare you that pain and leave the sensation of this as simply excruciating.
While the feeling of excruciation was certainly visible in Camden Yards that day was certainly very present, what truly struck me about the majority of the Orioles fans in the game and indeed all fans I encountered was the indifference.  For sure, while many fans ache with each painful loss, it seems that losing has become so customary, so accepted in the town of Baltimore that any semblance of hope had vanished from even the most ardent fan’s thoughts.   I felt that this apathy was most apparent when I stopped at a friend of a friend’s house walking to the game that afternoon.  The guy who we visited is a lifetime Baltimore resident and a fan of baseball and the Orioles his whole life, but when we asked if he wanted to make the five minute walk from his house to the stadium he only replied “why would I go sit in the sun on a day like this and watch my team lose again?”  In his defense, it was hot as hell that day, but I couldn’t fathom how a fan could see Camden Yards from his house, pay five bucks to get into a game to see a pretty decent Mets team play on a Sunday and not even consider going.  If I were in his situation and I lived near Yankee Stadium I would be there every day if I had the time and this guy, a baseball fan, could care less.  This is the sort of level of losing has clearly worn on the Baltimore psyche and obliterated even the most modest desire to see their team.
In the end, I left Camden Yards feeling rather disappointed and sorry for Baltimore fans.  The park that I had seen on TV for so many years was seemingly gone, and it’s place a stadium with shitty cold food (I swear that pretzel was sitting there for months before I bought it) and fans who tired of waiting for next year.  Of course, it’s very possible that my experience was an aberration and Baltimore fans can still conjure up hope on a good day, but it seemed that all hope had left with Cal Ripken Junior.  As a Yankee fan I love having the Orioles there as our way to pad our record and players individual stats, but as a baseball fan I see nothing good from such a dire situation.  Baseball can be a great game that many love, but when fans are deprived of even a glint of hope of being moderately successful its hard to blame them for saying “fuck it” and waiting for the Ravens to start.  And while there is hope on the horizon with the coming of talented young players like Matt Weiters, Adam Jones and Brian Matsuz, it seems like the Orioles are going to need a lot more than some promising prospects to get fans to come out and care about a once great baseball franchise. 
My experiences of Washington will be up shortly, promise.

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Tuesday, April 13, 2010

My NL Picks


    
            I kind of forgot about doing my National League preview, and since we’re a week in now I should probably get on that.  A lot has been made in the past few years about the National League being the inferior league to the American League, and while that remains true this year, I don’t think the division is as dramatic as it has been in recent years.  Teams like the Phillies and the Rockies are developing great talent from within and spending some money when need be and putting together lineups and rotations that would make any junior circuit team jealous.  Indeed, the easy thing to do is to point to the presence of the Designated Hitter as to why the American League has routinely done better than the Senior Circuit, but how does that explain the fact the National League routinely drubbed the AL all throughout the seventies and into the early nineties?  I digress.  Same deal as my American League picks, no playoff winners because the playoffs are a crapshoot, but I still try to give some analysis.
NL East
1.       Phillies
2.       Braves
3.       Marlins
4.       Mets
5.       Nationals
The winner of this division was arguably the easiest for me to pick of the National League because the Phillies are just so ridiculously good.  Great lineup that got a little better with the loss of Pedro Feliz for Polanco, great rotation that got even better with the World’s Best Pitcher, Roy Halladay, and a bullpen that isn’t great but good enough.  The Braves, even with the loss of Javy Vazquez have a great rotation and a solid lineup that should see some improvement with the J-Hey Kid in the lineup, and a bullpen that is very underrated with the presence of Billy Wagner.  The Marlins and Braves could easily have been swapped, thanks to Josh Johnson and that great lineup around Hanley Ramirez, but that bullpen is flat out garbage without a shred of talent.  As for the Mets, well, sorry to say Mets fans but they kind of suck.  The addition of Bay is good and a healthy Reyes will help a lot, but that rotation is just horrible after Johan, and even he’s no sure thing anymore.  The Nationals will probably be better, but after last year that isn’t saying a whole lot.
NL Central
1.       Cardinals
2.       Reds
3.       Brewers
4.       Cubs
5.       Pirates
6.       Astros
There’s not a whole lot of good to say about this division, because after the Cardinals it’s pretty much garbage everywhere.  The Cardinals with Pujols and Holliday are the class of the division in every aspect, great lineup, great top of the rotation, and a bullpen with a  lot of interchangeable solid arms.  The Reds I do like a bit, love Jay Bruce and some of their young guys to take a step forward and love the potential of their rotation, especially when Chapman comes up shortly because he’s been nasty.  The Brewers should be better than last year with the maturation of Gallardo, a true ace, and a lineup that is as good as any in the National League with that great tandem of Fielder and Braun, but a lot of holes in the rotation and pen.  The Cubs unfortunately had their shot a few years ago and now they’re just old, right handed hitter heavy, and stuck with a has-been ace in Zambrano who just looks horrible out there.  As for the Pirates, it looks like their never-ending rebuilding project will show some improvements with McCutchen and Garrett Jones, but the Astros are just terrible from top to bottom; I don’t think I’d want anyone on that roster.
NL West
1.       Rockies
2.       Diamondbacks
3.       Giants
4.       Dodgers
5.       Padres
The Rockies here are the class of this division by a long shot because of their superb lineup full of young talented guys, a rotation that is super deep and about to get even better as Ace Ubaldo Jiminez has a breakout year and a bullpen that is not too shabby.  I like the young Diamondbacks young talent a lot as well, with a lineup that will only get better as they mature, especially Justin Upton, and a deep rotation with the additions of Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, but Brandon Webb is too much of a question mark for me right now to put them at top, although I wouldn’t be surprised if they were the wild card.  I really hate the Giants lineup, especially the additions Huff and DeRosa, but any rotation with Lincecum and Cain, as well as a much improved Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez is just too good to suck.  As for the Dodgers, they were division leaders last year but their rotation is just bad right now; I mean Christ, Vicente Padilla is their opening day starter, do you really want to bet on a team when that washed up has-been is your Opening Day Starter?  Finally the Padres, well, at least they have Adrian Gonzalez, but they’ve got a whole lot of work to do before they’re good again.   

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Hurry it Up Already


A lot has been made in the past week or so of Umpire Joe West’s comments about Yankees Red Sox games and for good reason.  Joe like many fans and members of the baseball community have grown weary of the pace of games, particularly Yankees-Red Sox which last on average three hours and forty minutes compared to the less than three for everyone else.  Now I am no fan of Joe West, particularly his irritating grandstanding and characterization of the teams as “embarrassing” and a “disgrace” but the man has a valid point.  Indeed, the if you watch a Yankees-Red Sox game these days it’s downright excruciating.  Of course, my agony is accentuated by the fact that I hate seeing the Yankees ever lose to the Red Sox, but the fact remains that the two teams drag everything out, and for good reason.  These two teams are easily the best in baseball, with lineups full of the most potent and patient hitters, pitching rotations stuffed with the best arms, and management that is unparalleled in intelligence and wherewithal.  Consequently, it is only natural that these games would last so long because every pitch and every maneuver is carefully contemplated, every decision thoughtful and purposeful.  To be sure, Joe Girardi and Terry Francona are going to make sure they have the best pitcher in for each particular situation, and they’re going to make sure that speedy runner on first is checked is as much as needed to stop him from stealing; you don’t like it?  Change the channel.  The same goes for the players, like the hitters who are going to do everything to keep that man on the mound from getting into a rhythm even if that means stepping out of the box ten times an at-bat because they want to give themselves every opportunity they can.  For certain, it’s hard to really blame these guys for doing these things because they’re doing what smart teams do; they’re taking every advantage possible to get an edge over the other team.  However who you can blame for this is the people who run baseball whose job it is to ensure that the game is running at an optimal level and that abuses of the rules are checked against and stopped.  Unfortunately this is not happening right now, but there are in fact several minor changes that could be made that could dramatically improve the game and save us fans from the agony of the four hour, nine inning game. 
1.       Limit the number of times a pitcher can throw to a base an inning – Obviously this idea would make too many pitchers or managers happy but I’m not concerned about their feelings, I’m concerned about the integrity of the game.  To be sure, the practice of throwing over to first base by a pitcher is an effective method of stopping stolen bases, but it comes at the cost of making the game boring and drawn out.  Indeed, how many times have you watched a game where a pitcher throws over again and again and again where you just want to say to the guy enough already, try throwing to the plate a few times why don’t you?  A change like this in the rules would hardly be noticeable because pitchers aren’t totally prevented from keeping runners honest, but it also would promote base stealing, one of the more exciting plays in the game; what’s there not to like?
2.       Once a batter gets into the box a timeout will not be called, barring some emergency – I was watching an old game on MLB Network a little while, the 1967 World Series I believe, and one of the most significant differences I saw was how guys never stepped out of the box.  As strange as this may sound, batters got in the box and started with the at bat and they didn’t leave the box unless they were out or they got on base, what a crazy idea.  No fiddling with gloves, no clapping, no walking around the batters circle, just hitting, and this struck me as something that could easily be fixed with some good policing by the umps.  Hitters may not be a big fan of this rule change either, but again it’s in the interests of the game, pitchers get to pitch and the game will undoubtedly move along quicker.
3.       Limit the number of mid-inning changes to one, unless that pitcher has given up more than one run – This is arguably the biggest change I’m advocating, but I think most people would like to see a whole lot less of endless mixing and matching my managers that make the last three innings go on forever.  Indeed, there’s nothing more aggravating to me as a baseball fan see a manager bring in a righty reliever, and he gives up a hit, so he brings in a lefty, and he walks a guy, and then he summons another righty after that, enough already!  Don’t get me wrong, I understand why managers make all these moves, ensuring they get the best matchup in for each batter, but this is an abuse of the rules that simply needs to stop.  Constant posturing by managers make games, especially Yankees-Red Sox games drone on forever, with endless commercial breaks and pitcher warm-ups; it’s enough for a baseball fan want to tear his hair out.  I think this rule, while not perfect, gives managers an opportunity to still get creative with their bullpen and stop from getting rocked, but keeps the end of games a manageable length of time.
In truth, these three measures may sound drastic, but I would venture a guess that most baseball fans would hardly notice the difference except for the result.  Despite what some baseball purists will tell you, baseball is a constantly evolving game, changing in technique and approach to winning all the time.  The guys out there playing and managing at the Major League are smart people (at least when it comes to baseball), and those people smartly try to take every advantage they can get by exploiting weaknesses in the rule book.  Consequently, the rules of the game need to be revised from time to time, and with these changes, and possibly some other ones, will ensure that the game’s best interests are being served and even two great teams like the Yankees and Red Sox can possibly finish a game before midnight.  I don’t know about anyone else, but I’ve got finals in a few weeks and the shorter those games are the better because I need as little distractions as I can get this time of year.

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Monday, April 5, 2010

Do the Yankees have what it take to repeat?



                I should probably be studying for my legal research exam right now, but today is Opening Day in Major League Baseball and I would certainly be remiss if I didn’t post something today.  No “real” article per se, but I figured it’s high time I give you my projected standings for each division before the season really kicks off.  It’s not necessarily as scientific as say PECOTA or Marcel ratings (if you’ve never heard of those words don’t worry, you’re normal) but I have taken them in consideration, as well as my own analysis in deciding who goes where.  As last year, I’m not picking who wins in the playoffs because as the last ten years or so have shown us the playoffs is a crapshoot; all you need to do is take a look at the 2007 Rockies team to see that talent is not necessarily a great indicator of playoff success.  Anyways here is my take on the AL with a little analysis.
AL East
1.       Red Sox
2.       Yankees – Wild Card
3.       Rays
4.       Orioles
5.       Blue Jays
If anyone is wondering, no, this isn’t a reverse jinx on the Yankees, I’m no Bill Simmons.  The fact the of the matter is the Red Sox are a damn good team, they have great starting pitching, a great bullpen, excellent defense, and a lineup that maybe doesn’t have a “big bopper” like Manny was for them, but they’re deep and talented at virtually every position.  The Yankees in contrast aren’t that far off, their starting pitching is damn close and their lineup is definitely better, but the questions in the bullpen, as well as the high number of older players in integral roles.  While guys like Jeter and Jorge were great last year, they’re a year older and a little more susceptible to injury and decline, and that is the difference for me.  As for the rest of the division, the Rays are very solid, with great defense and a good lineup, but their bullpen has a lot of questions, and while their rotation is deep, but they’re going to need big years from Garza and Shields, and neither of those guys was particularly good last year.   The O’s are certainly improving, with a great young core of guys, but with the top three teams the way they are, and their starting pitching being so young and unproven its going to be a long season.  The Blue Jays, well, hey you still have hockey for a few more months, right?
AL Central
1.       Twins
2.       White Sox
3.       Tigers
4.       Indians
5.       Royals
Even with the loss of Joe Nathan at closer, the Twins are still the class of this division by a long shot, thanks largely to a solid but unspectacular rotation, great lineup, and solid defense.  The White Sox arguably have the best rotation 1 through 5 in the division, but their bullpen is pretty horrible and their lineup, full of guys who don’t get on base like Alex Rios and Alexei Ramirez are going to run into a lot of outs.  The Tigers will certainly be a competitive team in the long run thanks to the additions of Max Scherzer and Austin Jackson, but the losses of Granderson and Edwin Jackson will be sorely felt.  And yet even more than these loses, the late season swoon showed that this team is a very flawed one that has a long way to go.  As for the Indians and the Royals, expect them to be the punching bags for the rest of the Junior Circuit because frankly they don’t have a lot going on this year, aside from the Royals’ Zach Grienke.
AL West
1.       Angels
2.       Rangers
3.       Mariners
4.       Athletics
Believe me when I say it pains me to put the Angels here at the top of the standings because I hate them. Not only do they usually embarrass my Yankees every time they play (except for the ALCS) but sabermetrically they always seem to defy the odds.  Every year they significantly outperform their expected win-loss record even though they seem to lose talented player after talented player and it pisses me off that they seem to figure it out and everyone sucks Mike Scoscia’s cock for working his magic.  I digress.  I love this Rangers team, loaded with young talent in the rotation and a great lineup, but they’re just not ready for prime time yet.  Guys like Netfli Feliz and Derek Holland are great young pitchers, but they’re not ready to step in and be great, and as a result the Rangers will lean heavily on Rich Harden, a guy who’s never healthy, and Scott Feldman, a nice pitcher, but probably not as a good as last year.  The Mariners are the media darlings this year with the addition of Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins and their “revolutionary” pitching and defense approach, but I don’t see enough pitching or hitting here to make them contenders.  They have little or no power in the lineup, and the rotation after the big two is at best questionable and at worst horrible.  Hell, I’m obsessed with baseball and I think I can name one other starter after Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee, and he’s not that good (Ryan Rowland-Smith); that does not bode well for them.  As for the A’s, the signing of Ben Sheets is a good one, and their young rotation after him with Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill looks to get much better, but that lineup is beyond terrible, and that bullpen after Andrew Bailey is dicey.
I should have the National League up by tomorrow, but with my schedule who knows.

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Monday, March 29, 2010

New York Nine's Fantasy Baseball Preview

   


       It feels like forever since I wrote a post so I figured I’d ease back into things with some quick points on fantasy baseball.  Now I’m in the minority here, but I think that fantasy baseball is the best fantasy sport to play over football by a long shot (I know, real shock that I’d like something baseball-related over everything else).  For one, baseball is more suited for fantasy sports because it’s more easily quantifiable.  As some of my work here and the thousands of other baseball-websites will show you, the science of evaluating baseball has come a long way in the last twenty years; if you’re looking for a stat regarding some aspect of the game, chances are someone has already thought of it.  As a consequence, it’s generally easier to determine if a player was a fluke or for real if you thoroughly analyze a player’s advanced numbers.  Take for example Nick Swisher, who in 2008 with the White Sox was absolutely terrible, hitting only .214 and barely 20 home runs, but a closer look at the numbers show that this wasn’t an accurate evaluation of his overall talent.  Indeed, Swish had a league low batting average on balls in play that kept his numbers artificially low; Nick wasn’t necessarily bad, he just was unlucky.  And lo and behold, next year after being traded to the Yankees he increased his OPS+ from 92 to 129 and hit 29 home runs.  In short, baseball in my opinion is more fun to play because if you’re willing to put the work in to correctly evaluate a player’s talent, absent a terrible injury bug, chances are you’re going to do pretty well.  Compare that with football where there are so many variables to consider and so little comparative statistical data, it’s a crapshoot.  To be sure, as someone who played football my whole life and watches the NFL every week, you’d think I’d have my finger on the pulse on who’s going to be good and bad every year, but I have no fucking clue and I usually end up at the bottom of the league, and why?  Because so much is dependent on what others players do, so much is contingent upon other guys doing their job like the lineman keeping their blocks, the quarterback making a good read, the running back picking up the blitz, etc etc that even if your guy does everything right he still won’t get the points.  Indeed, sometimes you’ll just get back luck even by a coaches’ scheme, where a coach will simply decide he wants to attack one particular aspect of the defense and as a result your guy doesn’t get any touches.  It’s a great spot, but it’s a stupid system for fantasy that frankly isn’t even that fun if you’re winning because so much is just shit luck.
                Okay, that wasn’t really a short point, but you get the idea.  For me, if you really want to get the best analysis on fantasy or baseball in general you need to get Baseball Prospectus, but for those who don’t want to throw down twenty bucks for the Baseball Nerd Bible here’s some thoughts of guys who I think are overrated and underrated.
Overrated
Jason Heyward – I’ve got to get this out of the way first because I’m tired of hearing about how great the guy is for the last several weeks and it’s getting on my nerves.   For those who aren’t familiar with Jason, he’s the stud prospect for the Atlanta Braves who on the strength of a monster spring is going to start the season as Atlanta’s right fielder while only twenty years old.  Now if you talk to scouts and fantasy buffs alike they’ll most likely wax poetic about how great his swing is and how strong he is and how he’s destined for greatness, but the problem is right now he’s 20 and there isn’t a whole lot of recent history of 20 year olds tearing it up.  Indeed, since 2000 the best statistical season of a 20 year old was Miguel Cabrera and he hit .268/.325/.468 with 12 home runs.  Now this isn’t bad, but is it worth the 11th or 12th round pick that people are drafting him?  Not really, and while he could always do better, the numbers aren’t in his favor.
Mark Reynolds – Now usually this is a guy that I’d like because he gives you home runs and steals a plenty, 44 and 24 respectively, but not at where I’m seeing him drafted with his obvious flaws.  Indeed, in both Yahoo and ESPN.com drafts he’s in the top 20 of players to be drafted on average and Reynolds has too many holes to be worth a pick that high.  For those who don’t know, Reynolds has the record for strikeouts in a season TWICE, obliterating his record from 2008 of 204 with an astounding 223 last year.  Usually I don’t mind a guy with a lot strikeouts, but someone who has that much trouble putting the ball in play who also doesn’t have a real high OBP of .349, there’s no way I’m going near the guy because those numbers aren’t sustainable with that many whiffs.
Underrated
Billy Butler – Maybe I overestimated the league I was in yesterday, but when someone said “who’s Billy Butler?” I was a little disappointed because this guy is a can’t miss player.   If you looked at his standard peripherals you wouldn’t be that impressed, hitting .301 with 21 home runs, but what is so crazy is that in addition to those 21 home runs he hit 51 doubles while only 22.  For those who don’t know, there haven’t been a whole lot of players to do that,  and all of them are pretty damn good if not great, including Hank Greenberg, A-Rod, and Pujols, all Hall of Famers or soon to be, and Miguel Cabrera, who’s no slouch himself.  To be sure, this is elite company, and yet he’s still getting “who’s Billy Butler?”  Do yourself a favor and draft him, he’s going late and no one knows how good this guy is.
Denard Span – Everyone who I’ve talked to about fantasy baseball in the last two weeks is probably tired of hearing this guy’s name again, but Denard Span in my opinion is a fantasy stud.  Ranked outside of the top 100 in most leagues because of his lack of power, Span now the starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter for the Twins and is poised for a big season.  Coming off a year where he hit in pretty much every spot in the lineup, Span had a hell of a year for a leadoff hitter, hitting .311/.392/.419 with 23 stolen bases in only a 140 games.  The guy doesn’t have great power, (although he did have 10 triples) but what he does provide is runs, with 97 last year, batting average, and steals, which he’ll have an opportunity to do now as the full time lead off guy.  Sure he’ll probably never hit 25 home runs, but Span has a lot of value if you’re getting him in the right spot.
I could go on forever about fantasy sleepers and busts, but I’ll spare you of that pleasure.  What you really need to take away from this is that the key to success is valuing what others undervalue.  While people love home runs or a guy who had a hot year or a prospect with a lot of buzz, chances are you’re going to have to draft them too high to get them because everyone else wants them.  Indeed, sometimes the best bet isn’t always the sexiest pick in fantasy baseball because while it’s great to find that diamond in the rough, if you want to win you need to find reliable contributors, and you find that out through some legwork.  I don’t guarantee that following my reasoning will win you the league trophy, but at the very least you’ll be in a position to win and that’s a lot more than what you can say in a crapshoot like fantasy football. 

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Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Spring Is Here

 
Well it’s finally here, there’s snow on the ground still and I can’t leave the house without making sure I’m covered from head to toe, but baseball is finally here, baseball!  Yes, Opening Day is still a ways away, but the players have made their way to Florida or Arizona and Spring Training is in full swing and I couldn’t be happier.  As much as I love the “Hot Stove League” seeing who signs with who and running the numbers on a player’s value, it’s the games that make me love baseball because of its inherent beauty in the little moments.  Here in Spring Training probably more than any time in the season you have baseball in its simplest form, stripped of the pretense and the pomp and circumstance.  It’s maybe not always the most competitive game, with a smattering of has-beens and never-was guys thrown in with the All-Stars, but its baseball, and after the cold winter months it’s a sight for sore eyes.

For anyone has never gone to a Spring Training game it’s something that every true baseball fan should see because of its uniqueness and simplicity.  I was lucky enough to collect a few bucks and head down to Florida a couple years ago with a buddy of mine and the experience was unlike any I had before at a baseball game.  My friend Kev, a Red Sox fan, and I a Yankee fan embarked on a weeklong odyssey in Florida to see as much baseball as we could handle.   To be sure, I knew that it wouldn’t be like a day in the Bronx or Boston at the ball park, but I never expected what I saw down there the first day in Clearwater, Florida.  The Yankees were playing the Phillies, with the incomparable Carl Pavano pitching against Cole Hamels, and instead of being crammed in a box seat we got to lay on a grassy hill in center field.  Lying in the grass, drinking a beer and eating peanuts, it was like I was watching a game in my hometown, but no this was major leaguers, the best in the world.  Indeed, this wasn’t like sitting in the top deck of Yankee Stadium, this was different, this was an intimate baseball experience with a few close friends.  Everywhere you went multi-millionaire baseball players right in front of you, screwing around and chatting with fans.  Heck, A-Rod was in the outfield during the game running wind sprints a good twenty feet away from me, twenty feet away!  (God only knows why he decided to do that then, but it was a sight, the guy made me look small and I’m 6’4)  Sure this wasn’t the level of intensity of the ALCS or the World Series, but this was something altogether different, something more unpretentious and fun.

Spring training isn’t for everyone to be sure, and I know there are a lot of people who probably find it boring, but for baseball fanatics like me it’s exciting to see the players who watch for 162 games in the regular season in a very different setting.  Exciting not necessarily because the games are non-stop excitement, although there was some pretty great moments (I saw Joe McEwing of all people hit a walk-off grand slam for the Sox against the Blue Jays) but because it reminds you that at the core of baseball, when you cut through the bullshit baseball is a game, and a great one at that. 


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Monday, March 1, 2010

The Twins Know What They're Doing (Part 2)


Okay, so maybe I was overly optimistic on my ability to bang out another article on the Twins.  One day, nearly two weeks who’s counting right?  Well I guess that’s what happens when you go to law school, one day you’ve got nothing but time, the next there’s not enough because you’ve got papers to write and cases to read.  I digress.   As I was saying last time the Minnesota Twins have shown an exceptional ability to get the most value out of every salary dollar.  While so many other mid-market teams seemed destined to have large portions of their salary in sunk cost of players underperforming (i.e. Jose Guillen of the Royals, Barry Zito of the Giants) the Twins manage seem to manage to know how to invest wisely where market inequalities exist.  Such is the case for Orlando Hudson and his recent contract for one year $5million a few weeks ago.  While many teams have tried to shy away from giving out free agent money to veterans like they used to, the Twins managed to take advantage of the undervalued Hudson and solidify their infield unlike any Twins team in years.
For those who don’t remember, Orlando was in a very similar situation last year as spring training approached.  Coming off a big year with the Diamondbacks, Hudson was a free agent for the first time and was given the dreaded Elias A Free Agent Status.  For those who don’t know, “A” Status is given to free agents deemed the best of the class, who in turn require that the signing team give the old team a first round draft pick, something that teams are reluctant to give up.  Subsequently, despite an impressive season that produced a .305/.367/.450 batting line and a gold glove, Hudson was forced to take a last minute 2.5million dollar deal from Los Angeles.  However, it didn’t take long for Hudson to show the other 29 clubs how sorry they should be for not signing him when he got off an impressive start for the first two months hitting .333/.405/490 with solid defense.   Indeed, it was plain to see early on in his tenure for the Dodgers that Orlando was an all-around solid player, good for 3.2 wins above replacement the year before.
Yet as hot as Hudson began the season, an uncharacteristic cold streak made the beginning of the season seem to vanish from baseballs’ memory.  Indeed, after tearing the cover off the ball in May, Hudson was a disaster in June hitting .222/.269/.343, and while he recovered his Manager Joe Torre seemed to lose confidence in the veteran second basemen.  Although he continued to get at bats throughout the season, Hudson saw his plate appearances diminished in favor of Ronnie Belliard, a veteran who can be serviceable a times, but not nearly the player the O-Dog is.  As a result, by playoff season Hudson was mostly a spectator as the Dodgers fell to the Cardinals, and in truth he didn’t really deserve it.  A closer looker at the numbers, particularly his BABIP shows an extraordinarily unlucky season, hitting as low as .247 after hitting close to .310 for his career.  As these numbers and several other findings show Hudson was a victim to bad luck and circumstance that won’t likely continue in 2010.  An even more in depth look at Hudson’s season by Bill James shows a move out of Dodger Stadium will benefit Hudson greatly this year.  In James’ 2010 Handbook shows that Dodger Stadium decreased both triples and doubles by more than ten percent, a drop that is even more impressive when you consider that his old Park, Chase Field increased triples by 73 percent.   Although we can’t know for sure how Target field will play, it’s sure to be more of a hitters park than Dodger Stadium where he still managed to hit .283/.356/.417. 
Additionally, Hudson provides a great deal of value with his glove, where he has made a name for himself as one of the games’ best.  Already a four time gold glover, Orlando brings a great deal of athleticism to the position, as well as impressive range despite already being 32.  Although Hudson’s UZR wasn’t all that impressive last year standing at -3.7, this is largely a product of his inconsistent playing time, and it still has not hurt his career line of 17.6.  To be sure, second basemen with career UZR averages of 17.6 above average are far and few between in this league, especially those available for a scant 5million. 
This impressive combination of offensive prowess and defensive acumen exhibited by Hudson makes the second basemen worth every penny the Twins paid and more for the season.  Indeed, fangraphs.com valued the dollar amount of his performance last year $11.4million, and it’s hard to hard to argue with those numbers.  Orlando appears poised to significantly improve a Twins team that won the AL Central last year, and in typical Twins fashion they got it for basically nothing.  It’s moves like these that have made Minnesota one of the model franchises in baseball, who now with a new stadium should have even more resources should make things even more uncomfortable for an already nervous group of divisional foes.       

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