New York Nine

As an ardent believer of sabermetrics and the study of baseball by the numbers, it is usually easy for me to see through the power of the statistics whether a move is good or not to a reasonable degree most of the time. Indeed, the study of baseball through statistics has reached a point in precision that guys like Bill James or Rob Neyer can usually determine pretty reasonably who has the tools to succeed and who does not. And yet despite my strong belief of the validity in the numbers, there are times when I look at the numbers and everything seems like it's right and it should work out, but my gut can't be convinced. Although I've fought hard to shed myself of prejudices of baseball that come through appearances and small sample sizes, sometimes there are things that won't let you shake the sinking feeling that this just isn't going to work, something feels wrong; it is these very feelings that I have when I heard about the trade for Javier Vazquez. In a trade completed today, the 33 year old right-hander will be making his return to the Bronx in return for Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, a lefty reliever prospect and Arodys Vizcaino, and while the numbers suggest that this is a great trade I can't help but feel like this is a mistake. Fair or unfair, my indelible image of Vazquez will always be Game Seven of the now famous 2004 ALCS when Vazquez gave up the grand slam to Johnny Damon.

As I mentioned before, the numbers to this deal suggest that it's a steal for the Yankees and I want to believe it. Despite the fact Javier has bounced around on three different teams since he was traded in 2005 by the Yankees for Randy Johnson, Vazquez has been very good and at times great in that span. Averaging 213 innings a season, Vazquez has also had a 110 ERA+ in that time, averaging a very impressive 8.7 K/9, as well as a very decent 1.203 WHIP and 8.6 hits per nine innings. Second only to Randy Johnson in this decade in strikeouts, Vazquez has shown he can make guys swing and miss quite effectively, among the best in the game even, all while not walking a ton of guys and his only knock being really he gives up a few too many dingers. To be sure, when you look at these numbers in a vacuum it's a great move anytime you can get a guy of this caliber for so little to be your fourth starter! It's not enough that Vazquez is good by himself, but the fact that he will no longer be required to be a top of the rotation guy which he has been asked to do everywhere else he has been significantly increases his value to the team. Slotted behind CC, AJ, and Andy, Javy will not be asked to save the day for us as he was when we brought him and Kevin Brown in that horrible 2004 season. Further, at only nine million, Javy is somewhat of a steal for the Yankees when compared to the likes of AJ and CC's monstrous deals and for a considerably shorter time. For sure, from an objective standpoint there is very little to not like.

The deal for Vazquez is made even sweeter when you consider how little they gave up in return to get the talented right-hander. Mike Dunn, a left-handed reliever who has a good fastball and little else has shown below average control and little else while already on the wrong side of 25. Having already pitched 375 minor league innings, Dunn pitched a pretty pedestrian 3.62ERA with a 1.34 WHIP over his career. Granted, Dunn has also struck out 390 batters in that time, a pretty impressive number, but there's nothing to suggest that he's anything more than okay.

The other prospect of the deal is Arodys Vizcaino and while he's better than Dunn its unclear as to how good he'll actually be. Indeed, only 19, Vizcaino has one of the best live arms in the minor leagues right now, featuring a high 90s baseball and decent breaking stuff, Vizcaino did quite well for himself in rookie ball last year, striking out a very impressive 11.06 per nine innings with an equally impressive 1.16 WHIP in 44 innings. For sure, this is dominating stuff, but how much can you deduce from 44 innings of rookie ball? While Vizcaino has a good an arm as anyone right now, and was highly regarded in the Yankees farm system (number four overall by fangraphs), there remain a multitude of questions as to whether he will make an impact in the bigs. Only 19 years old, a lot can happen between now and when he's ready for the majors, like an arm injury or anything. This is a good pickup for the Braves and while it may hurt to lose the depth in the farm system, Vizcaino's future as a pitcher is far from certain making him expendable to the win-now Yankees.

Then you have the only sure-fire major leaguer in the deal of Melky Cabrera. At best, in his five seasons of work at the majors, Melky has been a league average centerfielder, posting an OPS+ of 99 last season with a .274/.336/.416 line, with a great arm and average range at all three outfield positions. At his worst, there are few who looked as bad at the plate at times as Melky, the season before Melky limped to the minor leagues with a 68 OPS+ and some of the most dreadful at bats you'll see by anyone on any level of baseball. While this can probably fly on a so-so team like the Braves, having a guy like this just isn't going to cut it for the Yankees so in truth they aren't missing much. Having already got Curtis Granderson in the fold and the emergence of Brett Gardner as one of the top defensive center fielders in the game (tops in UZR 150 last year in all the majors) Melky and his so-so bat is expendable and in fact probably had to go with two other centerfielders already. Throw in the fact that as a Super Two player (arbitration eligible after less than two years of service) and due for another sizable raise, moving Melky for a pitcher of Javy's caliber is a bit of a no-brainer.


To be sure, the numbers here and many more show a pretty clear cut case of a victory for the Yankees. Yet again, GM Brian Cashman has shown himself to be a deft baseball man, using his vast financial resources and a strong sense of sabermetrics to improve an already solid team significantly without giving up much. But as much as these numbers are enticing, and everything on paper says I should love this move, but I can't help but cringe a little bit at the thought of seeing Vazquez back in pinstripes. I realize that I'm being an irrational fan here, but I fear that seeing Vazquez back in the Bronx will only conjure up bad memories of the past. Sure 2004 is a long time ago and since then we've "exorcised" the demons by winning it all this year, but the moment of game seven doesn't go away. I remember very clearly where I was when I watched that game and I could almost draw shot for shot the mammoth grand slam Damon hit off him and the anguish I felt afterwards. Granted, it's not like Vazquez single handedly lost that game for us, after all he wouldn't have been in that game at all had Kevin Brown not shat the bed earlier in the game, but the moment is a microcosm of his time in the Bronx that season. Through his first 18 starts, Vazquez went 10-5 with a 3.56 ERA. He struck out 81 in 104.2 innings and sported a 3.12 K/BB ratio. In the second half, though, everything fell apart for the right-hander. He went 5-6 with a 5.79 ERA and found himself pitching in relief in the playoffs. While at times Vazquez was good if not great for us that year, ultimately Javy let us down when it mattered most. Javy later revealed that his ineffectiveness was due to a tired shoulder, a problem that he has not had since, but it would be tough to call his short stint in New York a successful one. Of course this was only one bad season, and since then Javy has shown himself to be a very good starter in the AL and NL alike, but it will be an uphill battle for me to believe in Vazquez again after breaking my heart that cold October night in 2004.


Still worse for me personally is the loss of Melky Cabrera, a guy who may have not been the best, but was one of my favorites as a Yankee. There was no good reason for me liking Melky from a numbers standpoint, and I can't count how many times I've seen him look bad or embarrassing beginning with his forgettable callup in 2005 (which was memorable if you're a Red Sox fans who enjoyed seeing Trot Nixon of all people have an inside the park home run) but he's just always been one of my guys. Melky came up during a particularly bad and boring time on the Yankees the next year and in many ways breathed some life into an old team. In contrast to everyone else on the team, Melky seemed to be having fun out there, exhibiting exuberance at every turn, making great acrobatic catches like the one on a potential Manny home run in the eighth inning seem routine. And while the numbers show a guy who just wasn't that good, I always felt like there was flashes of true talent beneath the surface for Melky. Whether it be a great at-bat against a great pitcher, or a surprisingly long home run, or even hitting for the cycle against the White Sox this year, Melky always seemed to be a step away from realizing his potential. But more than anything, there seemed to be something intangibly great and likeable about the guy. I know I sound cliché saying this, but there was just something you couldn’t help but like about the guy, and perhaps his failings made his successes all the more sweet for me as a fan. He wasn’t a great player by any means, and already 25 going on 26 the chances of him becoming an above average player are slim and none, but I always enjoyed watching him play and he will be missed.

None of these are really good baseball reasons for me not liking the move, but they are for me. While I love studying baseball numbers and how they play out on the field sometimes the subjective experience is too strong or too indelible to simply forget like they are here for Javy and Melky. I trust Cashman knows what he’s doing and if his track record has shown us anything it’s that he is an astute baseball man and I hope that the move works out, but I don’t have a good feeling about it. I hope that my gut is wrong about this and Javier Vazquez can be the reliable fourth starter that he’s capable of, but after a painful exit in 2004 it wouldn’t surprise me much if he failed at that.

This is old news at this point, but I figured I'd throw a few thoughts and concerns about the recent trade involving Seattle, Philly and Toronto for Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee moving forward. For those who don't know, the Phils landed Halladay by sending Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D'Arnaud to Toronto, and Seattle got Cliff Lee by sending Phillip Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and Juan Ramizez and for the life of me I don't understand why all parties made this deal. Don't get me wrong, Seattle made out like bandits, giving away three guys all pitchers who are incredibly unremarkable prospects for a Cy Young winner at the top of his game, and Toronto I understand they needed to move Halladay, but it's Philly that I just don't get. Now for those who have been following the Halladay to Phils rumors of the previous summer, the whole time you heard over and over how the Phillies weren't going to give up their top prospects like Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek for Halladay and in fact they were lauded by the media for refusing to "give in" and give these guys away for the former Cy Young Winner. So instead the Phils gave up another three prospects to get the lesser sought-after Cliff Lee, who as we know amazed everyone with utterly dominating performances pretty much every time out in the postseason, culminating in a complete game in Game One of the World Series. To be sure, Cliff Lee with his sub 1 ERA in the playoffs was about as good as could be. But then after unsuccessful negoiatitions with Lee to sign a long term deal under market value, instead of continuing they ship him out to Seattle for three guys who weren't even the Mariners top prospects (not that they had any five caliber guys anyways) and then giving up those very "untouchable" prospects for Roy Halladay that they refused to give up before; what about this deal makes sense again? My first thought about this is well if you wanted Halladay in the first place and it was going to cost your top prospects to get him, why not just trade for him last year? What's the difference? Now, instead of having Cliff Lee and all your top prospects you've given up two sets of prospects for Roy Halladay essentially, what's so good about that? Sure they got something in return for Lee, but if you look at their numbers they're not exactly great, and most scouts and analysts I've read up to this point say the three guys they got in return are projected as marginal major leaguers at best. That's all you could get for Cliff freaking Lee? The guy who a year ago won 22 for a terrible Cleveland team and was even better this year?

Further, it's not like you're getting that much of an upgrade with Halladay, I mean sure if I had to choose between Lee and Halladay I'd take Roy anyday of the week, but are you really getting that much better? As mentioned earlier, you really can't get any better than what Lee did already, what's the point of getting Halladay when you've already got a great pitcher?


Now I understand that a lot of this was a salary thing and Lee's apparent unwillingness to sign a below market long term deal, but why didn't the Phillies resolve these issues before trading for him? Couldn't this have been totally averted by simply just finding out by talking to his agent about the possibility of signing a long term deal?

I don't have the answers to these questions, but the Phillies and Ruben Amaro Jr. will have to answer for these questions in the coming months as he has essentially gutted their farm system twice for one pitcher and replaced them with marginal guys. Of course projections are only that, projetions and its unclear how they'll fare in the future, but it is quite a lot to give up for a guy who's going to be 33 and just signed an extension. I don't doubt Halladay, a pitcher who has dominated my Yankees for many years will do well, but at what cost and for how long is the question that will determine whether all this maneuvering and posturing is worth it for the NL Champs.

You knew that the Red Sox were not going to sit back idly forever, and today they made it quite clear that they weren’t going to rest on their laurels of a 95 win season. For certain, while some teams may be satisfied with such an impressive season, Boston has demonstrated that nothing less than a World Series title is satisfactory for their Nation’s adoring fans. In the wake of the Yankees’ heist of Curtis Granderson the great Yankees-Sox Arms race marches on without a hint of a détente in sight with some very smart signings by Theo and company. And while it’s not clear what either team will do next to one up the other team, what is clear is that the Red Sox have spent their money well on two very solid major leaguers in John Lackey and Mike Cameron.

The signing of right-hander John Lackey today for five years 85.5million by the Sox today shows that in the major leagues you can never have enough starting pitching. Indeed, already armed with easily the best one-two punch in the majors of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, the Red Sox added the much hated Angels’ ace to be their number three starter, and you could certainly do a lot worse for that slot. Coming off a season where he log 176 innings despite starting the season on the DL, Lackey last year and in fact every year in the majors has shown himself to be a very solid starter, posting an ERA+ of 118, striking out 139 while only walking 47. While only 30, John has demonstrated himself to be a guy who eats up innings, averaging 219 a year despite his injury ridden season this year, and when he’s in he’s done more than just eat innings, he’s been solid and at times dominant in big spots. In fact, Lackey, who made his introduction to the baseball world in Game Seven of the 2002 World Series, has been even better in the postseason throughout his career, posting an ERA nearly a run lower in 80 innings of work. In brief, Lackey, while perhaps not an “Ace” that he has been for the Angels the last couple years is nothing less than a very good pitcher that will only get better filling in behind Boston’s pair of real aces and that makes their rotation downright scary. With Lackey in place now, Boston can trot out Beckett, Lester, Lackey, and Bucholz in a playoff series; who in that rotation do you want to see? Every guy is a good if not great pitcher (Bucholz while not as established has the stuff to be a number one on most teams) who’s going to make the opposition work very hard for every run. For sure, Theo Epstein probably more than any other general manager out there recognizes that a run prevented is as good as a run scored, and while the Yankees are getting more bats the Sox are doing the opposite. By making their already great rotation even better, Boston makes themselves immediately more dangerous and ultimately much harder to score on. They say that great pitching beats great hitting and it seems that the Red Sox have taken this mantra to heart.

And while signing John Lackey would be big enough for most people on a day, it seems that the Red Sox were not content and made a nearly equally solid move by signing outfielder Mike Cameron to a two year 15.5million dollar deal. Now I know there are people out there saying, “Mike Cameron? Really? I mean wasn’t he on the Mets a few years ago and they traded him for Xavier Nady?” and while people may not have realize it, Mike Cameron has very quietly been one of the better outfielders in the game. Indeed, while on the older side, already 36, Cameron has been an all around force for the Brewers and the Padres with the bat and the glove and shows no signs of slowing down. Posting a +4.8 UZR last year in centerfield (compared to a -11.5UZR for Bay) Cameron has demonstrated exceptional range while being in both center and left field last year and represents a huge upgrade defensively for the Sox. Further, Cameron has shown to be a force at times with the stick too, posting a .250/.342/.452 line last year, belting 24 home runs while swiping bases at a 70% efficiency rate. While asking Cameron to duplicate Bay’s numbers last year would be unrealistic, Mike’s overall game combined with his very reasonable contract of 15.5 million over two years represents a great buy and a low risk move for the savvy Red Sox. To be frank, I had been hoping the Yankees would sign him to play left field for the Yankees, but it seems the Sox have beat us to the punch and made quite an impact.

While there remain some concerns on the Sox that their management will need to address, namely a lack of run support, it appears that Boston is well on its way to making 2010 turn out better than 2009. What the Sox have lost in Bay, they have gained in Cameron and Lackey that improved in both their pitching and defense significantly. To be sure the Sox are doing their best to make life for my Yankees quite miserable next year, but such is the great arms race between our two great baseball towns. I for one can’t wait to see what the next move will be.

Well I was planning on making my grand return to blogging with a more ambitious piece about the end of the season, but it seems Mr. Cashman has forced my hand by making a blockbuster deal for one Curtis Granderson. Now mind you I’m in law school now, I basically have no time with my finals starting tomorrow, where every minute is precious, but I’ll be damned if I didn’t spend a solid two hours refreshing mlbtraderumors.com hoping for something final on the potential of landing one of my favorite non-Yankees in the prime of his career. To be honest I’m downright giddy right now, and when you spend your days and nights memorizing the principles of res ispa loquitur and promisory estoppel it’s very hard to get worked up about anything, but only the Yankees can bring out such unbridled enthusiasm in me. Indeed, if you haven’t heard the Yankees, Tigers and the Diamondbacks pulled off the biggest trade of the off-season thus far, with the Diamondbacks getting Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, the Tigers getting Dan Schlereth (son of famous TV football analyst/douchebag extraordinaire Mark), Max Scherzer, Phil “I love giving up home runs” Coke and the much ballyhooed Austin Jackson. For sure, lots of talent exchanged hands, but like most trades everyone wasn’t a winner, and at least at first glance my Yankees and the Tigers seem to make out like bandits.

Starting off with the Tigers, Detroit here seems to have gotten a decent haul for two guys they were looking to move their salary in the worst way. Clearing at least ten million easy between losing the contracts of Granderson and Jackson (depending on what he gets for arbitration), the Tigers did an excellent job getting a slew of talented cost controlled guys in return for their big names. Max Scherzer the big starter in the trade is a young tantalizing starter with great stuff but some durability issues. Featuring a mid 90s fastball and a good slider that are hard to pick up with a herky-jerky windup, Scherzer in his first full season showed flashes of dominance, striking out 174 in 170 innings while walking 63, with a respectable 4.12ERA and 111ERA+. For sure, for a guy in his first full season in the majors, battling injuries that resulted in a dip in velocity, not to mention playing on a shitty team with a lousy offense, you could do a lot worse.

Then we have Austin Jackson, the highly touted centerfield prospect from the Yankees. I’ve been following Jackson for some time now and while I’ve loved his talent and potential, it seems there are some serious questions as to what he will do with potential. Ranked as high as number twenty two by Baseball America in all of baseball, a converted basketball player has exhibited great speed and athleticism, but his bat has been inconsistent. After flashing serious power in low A ball for the Yanks slugging over .550, Jackson skyrocketed through the farm system making it all the way to AAA by age twenty one, but since then has shown signs of regression. Starting the season off in blazing fashion hitting .344 with moderate power Austin regressed dramatically, falling all the way to .304 but more importantly with an OBP of only .345 and slugging a measly .405. Now this wouldn’t be horrible except for his alarming strikeout rate of whipping a troubling 123 times in 500 at bats. Striking out over a 100 times is alright, but if you’re slugging .405, it portends for trouble for the young centerfielder when he gets to the majors. For sure, major league pitching having no fear of his power will have no problem throwing him hard stuff over the plate and Austin will likely see his strikeout rates jump even higher. So while I’m sad to see such a talented guy who and possibly blossom with the Tigers, Jackson has some glaring concerns.

From here you have Daniel Schelerth and Phil Coke, two hard throwing lefties in the pen, and here the Tigers made off well here too. Schelerth in limited time showed flashes of brilliance as well striking out 22 in 18 innings of limited work, and shows promise. Coke on the other hand, to put it lightly is a bum. With a good fastball and little else, Phil gave up an excruciating 1.50 home runs per nine innings, as a reliever! Throw in his inning in the World Series where he gave up two home runs and I say good riddance. Still, as a lefty middle reliever the Tigers could do a lot worse, and will certainly be useful and likely less homer-prone in Comerica Park.

The Diamandbacks’s haul in comparison is not nearly as impressive. Edwin Jackson, to quote Keith Law “has number one starter stuff with number five starter control” and it has shown throughout his career. Bouncing around on several teams while only 26, Jackson seemed to have gotten it together this year early on, making the All-Star team, but it seems as though it was a mirage. Striking out 161 in 214 innings, he walked over seventy. Additionally, while pitching in one of the best pitchers parks he still gave up over a home run every nine innings and 8.4 hits per nine. Now while his ERA+ 127 is pretty good, the problem here is that he’s being valued as a number one type starter, and his peripherals don’t seem to suggest that. Add in the fact that’s he’s already arbitration eligible and he’s only under control for two more years the move is kind of puzzling when you’re giving up a talent like Scherzer who is under control for five more years and that same kind of strikeout guy. Of course, Jackson has the stuff to be effective in a good pitchers park and a weak division, but when you consider what you had to give up for him, the reasoning is dubious at best.

Ian Kennedy is an even more unimpressive pitcher acquired in the trade from the Yankees that makes the Diamondback’s move mystifying. While Kennedy was an impressive minor league pitcher at times, exhibiting excellent control and the ability to strike out guys, it remains to be seen whether his fringy stuff will translate to the majors. Indeed, in his limited stints in the majors Kennedy has been underwhelming at best, last year getting batted around to the tune of an ERA over eight, and seemingly losing his pinpoint control. What’s more, as some may know already, Kennedy has also gotten a reputation as being an unwilling student of the game, frequently appearing flip and even arrogant in the face of failure, unwilling to change or try to adapt to change his approach against more advanced major league hitters. While there is still hope for Kennedy, after all his minor league numbers are quite impressive (winning minor league player of the year in 2008), but the early signs on the young righthander are not promising. Of course, a move to the far easier competition of the NL West will help Kennedy, and he has a chance to be a reliable back end starter, but it’s far from a slam dunk.

Finally, we have the Yankees and their heist of Curtis Granderson. As I said before, I’ve always admired Granderson as a player and his all around play in center field, exhibiting power, speed, as well as a defensive prowess, and adding him in the prime of his career is a great move for the Yankees. Posting the highest OPS+ of all major league centerfielders since 2007 with 129, as well as a 5.1 UZR and an 80% success rate in stealing bases, Granderson has shown himself to be a true five tool player in every sense of the term. Now, Curtis is not without his faults, particularly his horrendous lefty splits .210/.270/.344/.614, and a sort of down year for him that saw his batting average and on-base percentage slip, but there is evidence that suggests he has room for improvement. Indeed, much like Swisher did last year, Granderson was plagued by an abnormally low BABIP of .273, a number much lower than his career in the .320s. Such a low number suggests that Curtis was a victim of a lot of bad luck, and as Swisher showed us last year, statistical aberrations on BABIP usually correct themselves and we’ll see a bounce-back to his career norms. Further, Granderson posted career high 30 home runs that as I mentioned before in one of the worst hitters parks in the league. Put Granderson in the cozy confines of the New Yankee Stadium for half of his games that is perfectly suited for his lefty pull swing, I see big things for the talented centerfielder. And that’s not even mentioning the fact he’s going to be near the top of one of the best if not the best lineup in baseball, its hard not to see him succeeding in pinstripes.

Overall, I think that the Tigers and the Yankees made out very well here, but it is far from certain. After all, for the Diamondbacks to trade such a talented young right-hander with more years of control, you have to wonder if there’s something about him we don’t about. Maybe he’s destined to just be a reliever as some people have mentioned, or maybe with that wacky delivery he’s a career ending injury waiting to happen. What’s more, as I mentioned earlier, Austin Jackson’s talent may not translate to the majors and he could end up being a bust, or Granderson’s off year might be the beginning of a decline instead of just a bump of the road. It’s impossible for there to be any certainty on who will be the ultimate winner of this trade, but at least for the Yankees this seems this was a move that will help them now and for years to come. Adding a guy like Granderson will only make you better, and in truth Jackson’s ceiling was never as high as what Curtis is already, so for a team that wants to win now it’s the obvious move. Throw in the fact that they didn’t give up anything else that can’t be replaced easily, it’s a move that the Yankees couldn’t resist. I for one know I will thoroughly enjoy watching Curtis man centerfield for the Yankees for the foreseeable future.