New York Nine

Baseball the way it was meant to be, down and dirty with brutally honest analysis

Friday, August 9, 2013

A Trip to the Park by the Bay



It’s been a long, long time since I've posted on here, probably too long for anyone to particularly care, but as a newly unemployed lawyer I figure I should probably do something aside from apply to jobs, work out and watch stuff on Netflix.  In the last year or so I've been knee-deep in legal and compliance writing between studying for the bar and work so I’m going to ease back into this baseball writing thing with a not-so-analytical take on my trip to AT&T Park (with pictures!).

I’ve been to my share of Major League parks in my time, I’d say give or take nine including parks no longer in existence like Shea and Old Yankee Stadium, and can say fairly confidently that of those I’ve been AT&T is high on my list of best experiences at a game.  Granted, it was only one game, a day game between the Giants and Cubs on one of the nicest and warmest day you’ll experience in a summer in San Francisco, but there was very little if anything I could really complain about.  For one, as you can see in some of my pictures, it is an absolutely gorgeous park, situated right on the water where as you can probably see on TV there are ton of boats parked there that really make it picturesque in every sense of the word.  But even more than the scenery the park itself is a sight to behold.  Built in 2002 near the beginning of the retro-park craze that attempted to make every field as quaint and quirky as Fenway (which doesn’t work, there’s only one Fenway), AT&T is one of the few parks that blend the retro and contemporary well.  Indeed, the Giants added some little old-timey touches like the brick, the odd dimensions and the bullpen mound on the field of play and combined them with some of the advantages of modern ballpark building like large concourses, more comfortable seats and great food amenities that doesn’t feel fake or forced.  Unlike other “retro” stadiums like New Yankee Stadium which kind of half-assed the retro look by putting a lot of work in the exterior and then making most of the interior of the stadium in stucco and heavy modern looking concrete, AT&T’s combination feels more seamless and thorough.  Of course, the scale of AT&T is considerably smaller than NYS and there’s no beautiful bay nearby in the Bronx, but what makes the former park more aesthetically pleasing is that it doesn’t feel like its aping some earlier stadium while sticking in some big luxury boxes; AT&T looks and feels like an entirely new entity onto itself.

As for the experience in the park itself, AT&T again distinguished itself by having a little bit of everything and not feeling overwhelming.  Before I chose what I was going to eat that day (always the most important decision of any game) I walked the entire concourse and found a little bit of everything I could possibly want, from your standard ballpark fare like hot dogs and fries, to Mexican, Italian, Chinese, Japanese and a few others that escape my memory.  I settled on the North Beach Stand, which refers to the Little Italy of San Francisco, and had one of the best meatball subs I’ve had in some time, along with some garlic fries.  Garlic fries? Oh man, you have not had garlic fries until you’ve had them at AT&T.  Not to keep dumping on NYS but I’ve had their garlic fries many times and they really don’t even come close to these were, fresh garlic right on the fries really made the difference.  And the drinks?  Again, AT&T was unparalleled in their variety of wines and beers available, not just your standard Bud and Bud Light but actual craft beers like Anchor Steam, Mendocino and Speakeasy to name a few.  And the best part?  The lines were manageable at every place you wanted to go to.  While the food selection was certainly on par with say a Citi Field that has a Shake Shack and Blue Smoke I’d favor AT&T Park for the sheer fact that you won’t spend two innings getting the food, even at a sold out game on a Sunday afternoon.  In sum, although the prices were certainly as high as some of the New York parks, I’d give the edge again to San Francisco because of variety and quality.

Finally, and most importantly is the atmosphere and the game itself, and again AT&T didn’t disappoint.  Now this game could have easily been DOA for a variety of reasons, first that they’re playing the NL Central cellar-dwelling Cubs, or that the Giants are pretty awful themselves despite winning the World Series least year, or the fact that it was a stunningly beautiful day out (which as any person who’s been to San Francisco will tell you is a rare thing indeed in the summer) but instead it was unquestionably awesome.  I’ll admit I was nervous about this, especially because I had convinced my mom and sister to come along who are not shy in their dislike of all the baseball I watch, but we got to the park early and by all accounts had a great time.  For one, they gave everyone a free Marco Scutaro T-shirt when they got there, and before the game they had an impromptu concert with some guy (can’t remember who it was) and by the time the game was ready to begin everyone was in their seats and ready to go.  The game itself ended in disappointment for the fans with the Giants losing 2-1, but the experience was not; fans stayed until the end (what a novel idea), cheered and were into every bat and held on until the last batter hit a lazy fly ball to left field.  I’m not going to engage in hyperbole saying these were the best fans ever, and surely it’s much easier to be a fan when you’ve won two of the last three World Titles, but the park very much felt alive throughout my time there.  Even in a lost season in a relatively meaningless game Giants fans were into it, having fun and getting loud.  They didn’t need some corny public address announcer yelling “make some noise” along with some silly graphic with a “noise-o-meter” (looking at you, NYS), and instead rose to the occasion when needed along with some simple organ playing from time to time.  Ultimately, a great crowd will make any event into a very good one but it is that combination of crowd and atmosphere that can make it into a special one.  In my estimation, AT&T Park is that special kind of place that makes me wish I lived a little closer to that Park on the Bay.


P.S. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that my sister, my inspiration to start blogging again, also has a blog about entirely different things at http://mensinsta.blogspot.com/, you should all check it out if you enjoy fashion and funny dating stories.  









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Monday, January 16, 2012

A Pure Baseball Trade


                Well I can’t say I expected this to happen.  Last Friday night, while most of us (myself included) were out enjoying the start of the weekend, Yankees GM Brian Cashman and Seattle Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik were busy pulling off one of the biggest and most surprising trades of the offseason, with the Yankees dealing uber-prospect catcher/DH Jesus Montero and pitcher Hector Noesi for the hard throwing 23 year old Michael Pineda and 19 year old pitcher Jose Campos.  On its face, this trade stands out from most because it’s a clear ‘pure baseball trade;’ motivated by comparative needs of the teams, both GM parted with some of the best young players in the game in hopes of improving a glaring weakness of their club, but will they work?  To be sure, trading young players that are long on potential but low on experience always carries a great deal of risk of not panning out, but given the relative skill set of the players involved it seems very likely that the trade could dramatically improve the fortunes of both the Yankees and Mariners in both the long and short term.
   
             At least for most Yankee fans, the name most recognizable involved in this trade is surely the much-hyped and controversial catching prospect Jesus Montero.  For the past few years prospect experts and analysts alike have touted the young catcher’s skill with the bat and given this pedigree it’s not hard to see why the Mariners would be so anxious to acquire him.  Indeed, coming off a year where Seattle had the worst offense in all of baseball by a wide margin, the Mariners are in dire need of a hitter in the middle of the lineup and Jesus certainly fits the bill.  In his career in the minors, Jesus showed an elite bat at every level, slugging over .500 at every level (except rookie ball), getting on base at a clip of .348 or better all while hitting well over .300.  To be certain, given these numbers it’s easy to see why Baseball America, ESPN’s Keith Law and virtually every other prospect expert listed him as a top three prospect for the last three years because the guy simply hits everywhere and anywhere.  And in fact Jesus has shown (albeit in a limited sample) that he can mash major league pitchers too, hitting an impressive .406wOBA with four home runs this September, of which three of them were to the opposite field.  This last fact bodes particularly well for Seattle due in part to their home park, Safeco Field’s dimensions, which is actually much easier to hit to right field; by being able to avoid Safeco’s rather cavernous left field, Montero looks poised to hit well despite leaving the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium.  Nevertheless, despite Jesus’ prodigious power and talent with the stick, there remain concerns as to where he can actually play in the field.  As I have mentioned in earlier articles, Montero has been consistently given low marks for his defensive acumen as a catcher, with many scouts pointing to his lack of quickness, bad footwork, and most importantly an elongated throwing motion that makes him rather slow on the relay throw.  And in truth, despite Brian Cashman’s statements to the contrary, it seems that the Yankees were not all that optimistic about his future as a catcher either, as evidenced by their usage of Jesus in the majors, catching only a handful of innings and not looking particularly good doing it.  At the moment, Jack Zduriencik maintains that Jesus’ future remains at catcher, however absent a dramatic turnaround, with Justin Smoak entrenched at first base Jesus seems destined to a career as a Designated hitter.  If this is the case, Jesus will quite clearly provide the Mariners with the pop they so desperately need at a very cheap price (Montero doesn’t become a free agent for six years) however his relative value will be significantly decreased if he can’t contribute in some significant way in the field.

                Of course, Yankees GM Brian Cashman wouldn’t give up a prospect of Jesus’ caliber or anyone, and by all accounts it seems clear that he got bang for his buck by acquiring the 6’7 right hander Michael Pineda.  Originally not supposed to even make the team last year, Pineda forced his way on after an electric spring training and did not disappoint with the major league club.   Indeed, although Pineda’s 3.74ERA won’t turn any heads, Michael showed that he has the makings of an Ace due to his devastating stuff and pinpoint control.   Thanks to his four seam fastball that he throws anywhere from 94 to 98MPH and a filthy slider, Pineda had the sixth best K% in baseball with 24.9% which was just tenths of a decimal less than MVP Justin Verlander; however arguably more importantly Pineda does it with great control, walking only 7.9%, giving him a K/BB ratio of 3.15.  Of course, detractors will likely point to Pineda’s home and road ERA (2.92/4.40ERA) as evidence that he’s not a true Ace and moreso a product of the spacious confines of Safeco Field, however a closer look at his BABIP and left of base % demonstrates that these spits are not indicative of his true talent.  Looking more closely at his home and road splits, Pineda actually had a lower FIP away from Safeco (3.26 to 3.62), a lower walk rate 7.0% to 9.1%) and a lower home run to fly ball ratio (the amount of fly balls hit that turn into home runs which was 7.8% to 10.5%) than he did at home.  In truth, the reason for his superficially worse numbers away from Safeco is essentially bad luck, as evidenced by his higher BABIP (.286 to .220) as well as the percentage of runners who he left on base (64.4% to 77.5%) away from Safeco.  Although there is no guarantee that these numbers will regress back to the mean, statistical analysis has shown that these splits are generally unsustainable, and as a consequence any concerns that Pineda was doing it by smoke and mirrors is just plain wrong.  With a big frame and great stuff and control the Yankees appear to have finally found a worthy number two pitcher to slot behind CC Sabbathia that they so desperately needed.   Of course, with any young pitcher Pineda is not without his concerns, particularly his 45% fly ball rate (one of the top five in baseball last year) which will likely result in more home runs in hitter friendly Yankee Stadium, however given the state of the Yankees rotation prior to the trade Pineda absolutely represents a dramatic improvement to a rather thin rotation.  Given his age (just turning 23 this month) and his price (Pineda isn’t a free agent for five more years) it’s hard to not see this as an improvement for the Yankees in both 2012 and beyond.

                The ‘winner’ of the Pineda-Montero trade remains unknown for now, but at present it seems like both of them won because they both  dealt from an area of strength to improve in an area their most glaring weakness.  For the Yankees, losing a homegrown player like Montero with his talent always hurts, but Yankee fans should be comforted in knowing that Mr. Cashman has compiled a ton of talented catcher prospects, including Austin Romine, JR Murphy and Gary Sanchez (Sanchez in particular has actually hit better than Montero at this stage in his career but can actually play defense) who are either ready or will be ready soon to take the mantle as Catcher of the Future.  The fact of the matter is as good as Montero is and as painful it will be to watch him mash for the next decade or so, the Yankees can live without him and by adding a potential ace the team will be ultimately better.  Add in Jose Campos, who at 19 already throws 97MPH and struck out 85 and walked 13 in 81 innings (also Seattle’s number five prospect) and you’ve got a chance to add two aces in the future.  Conversely for Seattle, while losing a potential Ace will hurt the Mariners, Seattle already has an Ace in Felix Hernandez and has many other great pitching prospects coming down the pike that are similarly talented as Pineda is.  Much like how the Yankees are with hitters, the Mariners can afford to give away a pitcher because they’re getting in return a guy who instantly becomes their most talented hitter on the team.  The result of this is a trade that looks poised to make both teams better, and as a baseball fan these are the kinds of trades I love.   

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Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Padres Seeking New Direction Under GM Byrnes



                 The San Diego Padres are one of those teams that very few people are talking about these days, and that’s probably because nobody has the faintest idea of what they’re trying to do.  To be sure, the days of the Padres dominating the NL West led by Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez are now a distant memory, with both players and indeed many of their established regulars gone, leaving the team without a discernible identity or clear direction for the future.  Take for instance new General Manager Mr. Byrnes’ two most recent moves, trading Staff Ace Matt Latos to the Cincinnati Reds for Yonder Alsonso, Edinson Volquez, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger, and most recently trading for soon to be free agent outfielder Carlos Quentin for Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez; trading Latos before he becomes arbitration eligible suggests the Padres are trying to keep costs down while they retool and rebuild for the future, but then why would they take on an outfielder who made $5million last year and will be a free agent after 2012?  Although new General Manager Josh Byrnes’ vision for the Padres future remains unclear, what is clear is that he is seeking any which way to increase the talent of his ballclub any way possible and is unafraid to forgo convention to do it. 

                Beginning first with the Matt Latos trade, Padres GM Byrnes undoubtedly gave up one of the best young and cost controlled starting pitchers in the game, however he can justify that loss by the sheer volume of talent he received in return.  The centerpiece of the trade is most clearly the young lefty swinging first baseman Yonder Alonso and he looks to provide some sorely needed pop in a largely punchless Padres lineup.  Indeed, despite finding limited playing time last year due to the presence of reigning NL MVP Joey Votto at first base, Alonso demonstrated his exceptional skill at the plate, hitting to the tune of .330/.398/.545 with a .409 wOBA over 50 games.  Of course, this is just a small sample size, but Alonso’s minor league numbers suggest that he possesses the skills to succeed at the major league level, posting a OBP under .372 only once as a minor leaguer while hitting for a high average and decent power.  Nevertheless, the move has been considered curious due to San Diego’s acquisition of first baseman Anthony Rizzo last year in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, but there are reasons to suggest that Alonso’s skills are a better fit for the Padres and their home park, Petco Park, the worst hitters park in the game.  In particular, Alonso has demonstrated a significantly better eye at the plate throughout his career, walking at a rate of 11% compared to Rizzo’s 9.7%, as well as a significantly lower strikeout rate (15.1% compared to Rizzo’s 20.7%).  Furthermore, although Alonso has displayed decidedly less power than the lefty swinging Rizzo, an analysis of park factors by Fangraphs.com shows Rizzo’s pull-happy swing will be hurt most by Petco; whereas Rizzo almost always pulls the ball to right field, the area of Petco that is the most damaging to a hitter’s power, Alonso has consistently shown to have power to the opposite field, prompting most analysts and scouts to predict that Alonso could be quite valuable providing 40-50 doubles by utilizing left center field.  Ultimately, one of these first baseman will have to be moved in a trade, however due to Yonder’s superior skill set it seems likely that Mr. Rizzo will be getting the boot and Mr. Alonso will be the Padres first baseman for the long term.

                In addition to help at first base, the Reds also acquired a long term solution at the catcher position in the Matt Latos trade by acquiring the Reds 1st round draft choice from 2010, Yasmani Grindal.  Although still very young and blocked by Nick Hundley for the short term, Grindal looks to provide the Padres some sorely needed pop in the immediate future from one of the most difficult positions to get it.  Still only 23, Yasmani has shown considerable prowess at the plate in his short career, hitting .333/.385/.500 in rookie ball only to quickly move up to AAA and dominate at every level with a line of .300/.401/.500 and 14 home runs between Single A, AA, and AAA.  Of course, Yasmani will likely see a decline in power as he makes his way to Petco in the next few years, however his superior eye at the plate (13.3BB% career) will ensure that his value as a catcher remains high.  Indeed, given the scarcity of catchers who can actually hit, Yasmani seems poised to be an invaluable asset for the Padres in the future in the field as well as at the plate.  Although his value will likely not be comparable to what Matt Latos, a hard throwing righty starter with superb stuff would provide, he along with Alonso and the rest of the haul from Cincinnati arguably makes the Padres a much better team 2012 and beyond as a whole.

                While the moves for Alonso and Yasmani are clearly seeking to improve the Padres in the long term, the move for Carlos Quentin is very clearly and very questionably for the short term.  As stated above, Quentin, age 29, is a year away from free agency and will almost certainly be gone by the time that the Padres’ young farmhands are ready to contribute; nevertheless, given the rather limited value in consideration for Quentin, it can be argued that Byrnes was merely buying low on a hitter whose contributions he believes will be greater than that of the prospects given up.  The Padres dealt two pitchers to the White Sox, right hander Simon Castro and lefty Pedro Hernandez, and while they will likely help in Chicago’s own rebuilding, neither is exactly a sure thing.  In particular, Castro, 23 years old, the most highly touted prospect, has been anything but impressive recently, posting a 5.64 ERA in Triple A and didn’t look particularly good doing, striking out 94 in 115 innings but walking 34.   Hernandez was better but not great either, with an 3.49 ERA and 94 strikeouts to 22 walks in 116 innings in Double A, resulting in Baseball America, the preeminent scouting magazine, to put neither of them in the Padres’ top ten prospect list even before the Latos trade.  In truth, when looking at these rather unimpressive numbers it becomes clearer why Mr. Byrnes was willing to give up on both of these pitchers because of Quentin’s prodigious power, an area that San Diego clearly lacks.    Although Carlos is well removed from his ridiculous 2008 season where he posted a .414wOBA due to a fluky increase in both batting average and on-base, Quentin has showed himself to be a reliable source of right handed power posting slugging percentages in the high .400s ever since.  And while detractors will point to Petco’s cavernous outfield to suggest that Carlos’ power will disappear, in fact for right handed hitters Petco is almost neutral for right handed hitters with a park factor of 95 (courtesy of Stat Corner, a score of 100 is considered a completely neutral park to both hitters and pitchers, compared to a park factor of 59 for lefties).  Thus, despite his flaws as a player, which include his poor batting eye and his mediocre to horrible fielding (he had a 1.7 UZR/150 in 2011 but averaged -31 UZR/150 for his career) Quentin provides the Padres with value (2.6WAR last year) to help the team compete in the short term, while simultaneously not hurting the team’s long term goals by holding onto their best talent on the farm.
  
              Although neither of these moves will likely make the Padres a contender in 2012 or possibly even 2013, they are undoubtedly a more complete organization in both the short and long term.  While neither of these moves when taken as a whole exhibit a true direction for the organization, it is sufficient to say that the Padres under Josh Byrnes have been primarily concerned with acquiring superior value, regardless of that value is long or short.  As a consequence, despite a small fan-base and a home park that no free agent would dare sign with, the Padres are clearly putting themselves in a position to compete, and given the fluctuation in performance in the rest of their division, that just might be enough to keep them in the mix for the division crown for the next few years.  

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Friday, December 30, 2011

The Cardinals and the Post-Pujols Era


    
            On the heels of one of the most exciting and thrilling World Series in recent memory, the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals head into the 2012 season a very different team.  If you haven’t heard (but I’m sure you have) the Cardinals signature player, the man most associated with “The Cardinal Way” since Stan “The Man” Musial, Albert Pujols rejected the Cardinals’ offer and signed with the Anaheim Angels to a monstrous 10 year $254million deal.  To be sure, combined with the loss of their Hall of Fame Manager Tony LaRussa, the loss of Pujols has to leave any halfway sane Cardinals fan feeling like the team is about to go down the tubes, however the reality of the situation is far less dire.  While the loss of the future Hall of Famer will certainly hurt the Cardinals in the short term, the addition of new players or injured players like Carlos Beltran and Adam Wainwright will help alleviate that drop off and enable the Cardinals to not have to pay Albert big bucks as he enters his decline phase as a player.

                Of all the moves the Cardinals have made this off-season, none has the potential to soften the blow of losing Albert Pujols than the signing of six-time All-Star Carlos Beltran.  After a surprisingly quiet free agency for Carlos, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak signed Beltran to a 2 year/$26million dollar deal that undoubtedly has some risk, but a great deal of upside.  Although missing some time to begin the year, between his stints with the Mets and Giants, Carlos displayed his keen eye at the plate and still prodigious power despite playing in some of the worst home run parks in the game, playing in 142 games and hitting to the tune of a .300/.385/.525 slash-line, with 39 doubles, 22 home runs and a .389wOBA.  These numbers, although hardly Pujols-esque, are still easily among the best in the league for an outfielder and should only be improved by the move to a far more hitter-friendly park in St. Louis.  Nevertheless, as any Mets fan (or Giants fan) will tell you, Carlos is not the same guy he was a few years ago.  For starters, Beltran, who has always been injury prone and has some bum knees, one of which required microfracture surgery, but instead chose to undergo less evasive arthroscopic surgery and it has clearly been to his detriment.  No longer a graceful runner in center field, Carlos was forced to move to right field and clearly was not the same player, posting a UZR/150 of -9.2 between his stints in New York and San Francisco, as well as a less than impressive -11.0 RngR.  Entering his age 35 season, Beltran could very well see these knee problems affect his effectiveness at the plate and may turn out to be a bad signing, but the point is the risk isn’t all that great.  While he is older and could very well fall off a cliff, the fact of the matter is Carlos was worth 4.7WAR last season, which comes out to about to being worth about $22million.  Even if it does fall off a bit, the Cardinals are still likely to get a great deal of value from Carlos and be well worth the money over two years.

                In addition to the help coming from outside the Cardinals organization, help from inside the organization in the form of Staff Ace Adam Wainwright should also significantly soften the blow of the loss of Pujols.  Adam injured his elbow last spring training and was forced to miss the entirety of the 2011 season to recover from Tommy John Surgery; in the past this would cause concern that he may never regain his former ace form, however the ridiculously high success rate these days makes him a good bet to be as good as new.  For certain, it is a testament to the Cardinals last year that they were able to overcome the loss of Wainwright and win the Series because he was so damn valuable to them in years prior.  Indeed, in his last full season in 2010 Wainwright was an Ace in every sense of the word, tossing an impressive 230 innings to the tune of a 2.32 ERA (and a 2.86 FIP to back it up) and displaying excellent control, with 8.32K/9 and an even more impressive 3.80 K/BB ratio, which was among the top five in the senior circuit that year.  Of course, like any surgery there is always an element of risk that Adam may not be the same guy he was, but again given his age (just 30) and the success rate of Tommy John (many pitchers are even better after Tommy John), it’s hard to not see Wainwright come close to his 6.1WAR from that season, which again was worth according to Fangraphs.com over $24million to the Cardinals.  Between the two the Cardinals are adding potentially ten wins to their team, which although will not exactly replace what a superstar like Pujols gives a team, undoubtedly gives the team a very good chance to be in the mix come October next year.

                Of course, as wonderful as these players may be for the Cardinals, neither of them are Albert Pujols; though in light of Albert’s age and uncharacteristically down year, the Cardinals may have dodged a bullet.  Of course, at least in the short term it’s hard to not like the move by the Angels in signing Pujols for the simple reason is that he’s Albert Freaking Pujols, the best baseball player on the planet.  While still only 32 Albert has already put together a Hall of Fame resume, accumulating 87.8WAR for his career, 445 home runs, a .328/.420/.617 slash-line, ten all star games, three MVP awards, and two gold gloves; this isn’t just a great player we’re talking about here, we’re talking about a guy on the short list of being one of the greatest of all time and arguably the best first baseman since Lou Gehrig, and he’s not even done.  Nevertheless, while the Angels were smart to acquire a player of Pujols’ stature under any circumstances there are reasons for concern.  For one, Albert is coming off what was easily his worst season to date, where he hit ‘only’ .299/.366/.541 with 37 home runs and 29 doubles.  To be fair, these are not bad numbers by any measure, and furthermore Albert admitted the specter of his contract negotiations affected his play, however these are not numbers of an all time great that the Angels are paying for.  Although most projection systems forecast a return to glory for Albert (Bill James and Fangraphs project him to have approximately a .319/.410/.585 stat line) it is entirely possible that Albert’s best days are behind him.  Players like Jimmy Foxx, Mel Ott, Albert Belle and a host of others saw a steep decline after they turned 32 making it substantially likely that Albert do the same.  Moreover, Albert’s contract, while fair relative to his value as a player could potentially be an albatross to the Angels in the long term.  As reported by Ken Rosenthal, Albert’s contract is very back-loaded, with him getting only around $16million now and the second half getting over $30million which could very well hurt the Angels’ ability to compete if Albert isn’t Albert anymore.    One can’t help but think of the example of Alex Rodriguez, who also got a ten year deal after his age 32 and has declined considerably in the four years since, and wonder if Albert will suffer a similar fate.   However unlike the Cardinals who despite their rapid fans are very much a mid-market ball club, the Angels in light of their huge new TV deal and the decline of the Dodgers in the LA market can afford to make such a gamble.  Given these risks it seems very likely that in a few years Cardinals fans may be very well thanking the Angels for paying Albert all that money to leave for Sunny Southern California.
   
             Even in light of all these very rational reasons to feel better about the Cardinals long term without Albert Pujols than with him, it will still be hard for Cardinals fans to see Albert Pujols wearing a red hat with a Halo instead of a Red Bird.  Players like Pujols don’t come along very often, so to see him leave in the middle of his career after so many great moments has to be disheartening.  Nevertheless, given the rather astute moves Mr. Mozeliak has made to make the Post-Pujols Era not so frightening, Cardinal fans have a litany of reasons to believe that the division titles, pennants and World Series championships will not leave town with Albert.  And even the Cards aren’t as good as they once were, Cardinal fans should take solace in knowing that for a decade they had the honor and privilege of seeing one of the best that ever lived play in their home town, and that’s a lot more than most baseball or indeed any sports fan can say with a straight face.  

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Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Austerity in the Bronx


                By all accounts, The New York Yankees in the post-Steinbrenner era has been an undeniably strange one for Yankee fans.  Once the champions of the back of the sports page vying for the top the free agents or hottest trade target on the market, the past few years have seen the Yankees embracing austerity, searching for bargain basement deals and resisting the temptation to deal their highly touted prospects in order to let them practice their wares in pinstripes on the cheap.  To be sure, coming off a 97 win season on the strength of surprising performances by the likes of Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, and Ivan Nova, this formula has worked well in the short term, and in turn enabled GM Brian Cashman to lower to the payroll to a somewhat reasonable $189 payroll (by Yankee standards), but will this strategy work in the years to come? The answer to this question it seems rests on the young shoulders of Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos and several others coming along the Yankee farmhand pipeline and the ability of high priced veterans like A-Rod, Jeter and Teixeria to stay healthy and live up to their contracts.

                Arguably the most important piece of the puzzle for the Yankees is the continued growth and success of the 22 year old uber-prospect Jesus Montero.  Blocked most of the year at both catcher and designated hitter by Russell Martin and Jorge Posada, Jesus finally got a shot in September and did not disappoint.  Although limited to a mere 69 plate appearances, Montero’s potential was on display to the Yankee faithful, hitting an impressive .328/.406/.590 with four home runs, three of which went to the opposite field.  Now with Jorge gone and likely retired, it seems that Jesus will finally be able to find at bats consistently next year, however questions remain regarding his defensive ability and the Yankees’ desire to have a full time DH.  In truth, especially with Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez getting older and more brittle Yankee Manager Joe Girardi will likely want to give a great deal of those DH ABs to them in order to keep their legs fresh over the whole season, thereby likely limiting his ability to get 500 at bats there.  And the catcher position is equally problematic for Jesus, given the fact that Russell Martin has established himself as one of the better defensive catchers in the AL whereas Jesus’ reputation as a catcher has been characterized as dubious at best.  Indeed, virtually every scout from Keith Law of ESPN to John Sickels of Baseball America has seriously questioned his ability to be an effective defensive catcher due to his size and general lack of mobility behind the plate.  Nevertheless, Brian Cashman has been adamant that like Jorge Posada before him, Montero can become an effective catcher with more reps and patience and has been reluctant to consider him a full time DH.  If Mr. Cashman is right, Montero offers the Yankees production at the catcher position that could easily meet or exceed Posada’s production in his prime, providing the Yankees with cheap, cost-controlled 30 home run power at one of the most difficult positions on the diamond.

                As important as Montero will be to the Yankees in the years to come, the success of the Yankees in 2012 largely rests on the shoulders of Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes, the young promising pitchers on the staff.  Although their histories are quite different, Hughes coming up at age 20 with huge expectations while Nova a Rule-5 pick who struggled just to get on the roster, both have proved to be important contributors to the Yankees in the past two years, with Phil winning 18 games in 2010 and Ivan winning 17 despite being sent down during part of the year.  Nevertheless, there are reasons for concern for both heading forward.  Phil Hughes in particular has had issues staying healthy, going down for a large part of this season and even when he was healthy he was less than stellar, posting a career worst 5.70ERA, a 5.67 K/9 and not so reassuring FIP of 4.58.  These numbers may be an aberration, given his huge jump in innings pitched the year before, going from 86 in 2009 to 176 in 2010 (not including the post-season), but there remain larger concerns regarding his ability to get major league hitters out effectively.  Indeed, despite attempts to add a third pitch, Hughes has been largely be unable to find a put away pitch to complement his stellar fastball and curve, and as a result he has become an extreme fly ball pitcher with an astounding 44.8% FB rate last year (worst in the MLB last year).  This inability to get ground ball outs, particularly in light of his home stadium, Yankee Stadium, a notorious home run haven, makes the former phenom decidedly not a sure bet to return to form.

                Conversely, for Ivan Nova, the young righty hopes to avoid a similar sophomore slump to that of Hughes despite some rather unimpressive peripheral stats.  Indeed, although possessing an impressive fastball and an improving slider, Ivan has had trouble striking guys out at a level comparable to top flight starters in the league, posting a rather pedestrian 5.33K/9 and a downright problematic 3.10BB/9.  Of course, it would be unfair to say that these numbers are representative of his actual success, as Nova’s ERA and FIP both steadily declined each month, posting a 3.82ERA and 3.20FIP in his final month of the season, making him easily the Yankees second most reliable starter down the stretch, but it is hard to ignore the healthy amount of luck Ivan got during those months, holding hitters to a BABIP of .283 and leaving base runners stranded on base at a truly unsustainable level of 73.2%.  All of these statistics and more make Ivan a surer bet than Hughes, but still not quite a pitcher whom you can put down in ink as a true number two pitcher behind CC Sabbathia.  Indeed, it is certainly possible that Nova keeps up his good fortune, but like Hughes the only way to ensure future success is development of a third and equally effective pitch.

                In another era in Yankee history, these young and unproven players would likely not be relied on so heavily to produce in pinstripes, however it seems that the rather onerous contracts of some of New York’s veteran stars have forced Mr. Cashman to pinch some pennies.  Indeed, thanks to contracts given out to more established stars like Alex Rodriguez (making $30million a year), Mark Texieria ($23million per year) Cashman has had to fight hard to keep the Yankees under the luxury tax threshold while still remaining competitive. The only problem it seems is that these highly salaried stars have not lived up to their rather weighty contracts in the past two years.  Particularly for Texieria the decline has been quite rapid and damaging, going from hitting a stellar .292/.383/.565 in 2009 to last year only managing a rather pedestrian .248/.341/.494; these numbers may be fine for a first baseman on a mid-market team, however when you’re paying over $20million to the guy, you’re not exactly getting a lot of bang for your buck.  Certainly, many will point to Texieria’s home run totals, of which he has kept constant, hitting 39 dingers this year, the same as his 2009 season, however it seems that the power has come at the expense of his formerly keen batting eye and ability to hit to all fields.  In fact, Mark has admitted as much that he became too enamored by the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, but mere awareness of the problem won’t be enough for Mark to regain his form.  Time and time again this postseason Texieria looked hapless at the plate, swinging wildly at bad pitches by the Tigers staff, and in order for New York to overcome the Rangers, Tigers, Red Sox and more of the league these tendencies must come to an end.

                Finally, I would be remiss if I did not discuss Alex Rodriguez and his rather precipitous decline because of the apparent damage it has done to the overall strength of the Yankee lineup.  Now entering his age 37 season, the days of Alex’s MVP runs with 54 home runs and stellar defense are clearly behind him, and along with it his famous durability.  Indeed, after never having played less than 125 games his entire career, Alex couldn’t even break the 100 game mark in 2011 due to nagging hip issues, and as a result his overall numbers saw a sharp regression to the mean.  Although Alex was able to still get on base at a healthy rate of .362, Rodriguez saw a sharp decline in batting average and power (.277 and .461 respectively, the first time he posting a slugging percentage lower than .500 since 1998!) resulting in only 16 home runs.  Of course, at Alex’s age in the post-steroid era (Ryan Braun notwithstanding) a regression is expected, but with six years left on his monstrous $300million dollar deal a decline so sharp so early is really hurting the Yankees’ ability to compete.  Even more than Texieria, the Yankees need Alex to come somewhere near his former levels of production at the plate in order to provide protection for the new big bats of the Yankee lineup in Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson.
  
              To be sure, the notion of austerity for the Yankees is undoubtedly quite different than that of the Kansas Cities and Pittsburghs of the world, but it’s clearly a departure from business as usual in the Bronx.  Whereas in past years I would have expected Cashman to make a big bid on Japanese pitching phenom Yu Darvish, instead the Yankees weren’t even in the same stratosphere as the bids by former Bronx punching bags Texas and Toronto.  This is not to say that the Yankees will not be able to compete with the new big spenders for the pennant year in and year out in the future, but it is clear that now more than ever, the Yankees must find ways to spend money wisely.  As any halfway knowledgeable Yankee fan will tell you, big spending will not necessarily ensure success and in fact (thanks for nothing Carl Pavano, Jared Wright etc etc), as in the cases of Alex Rodriguez and Texieria presently, big spending now can often hamstring a team from making the team better due to the financial burden of a big time deal.  Luckily for New York, in Brian Cashman the Yankees are fortunate enough to have one of the most adept and competent General Managers in the game, one who does not necessarily get the same fan-fare of Theo Epstein or Andrew Friedman, but who has the record and the rings to show that he knows a thing or two about putting a baseball team together.  More than any one asset, Cashman is the key to success for the Yankees in the future to find ways to win without the bottomless wallet of the late George M. Steinbrenner.  

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Monday, December 26, 2011

Marlins Spend Big, Risk Bigger



                              Since their inception in 1993 the Florida (now Miami) Marlins have never been an organization that has been content to abide by the conventional wisdom of baseball.  Whereas many much older and more established franchises are content to wait patiently to develop prospects and cultivate a fan base to increase revenues and then in turn raise spending, the Marlins under owner Jeffery Loria, despite a laughably small fan base, have eschewed long term thinking and gone about trying to win now and worrying about the consequences later.  Twice now since its inception the Marlins have staggeringly reached the mountaintop of baseball, in 1997 and 2003 respectively, only to quickly dissemble these teams in wholesale fire-sales, leaving the franchise barren of talent for years to come.   Now on the precipice of opening a new ballpark in Miami (with some of the worst uniforms ever to hit major league sports) it seems Mr. Loria and the Marlins have forgone the old formula and engaged on a spending spree, going after and getting many of the best free agents available, and now seem poised to make their presence felt in the NL East.  Nevertheless, given the recent developments of an ongoing SEC investigation due to a rather fishy stadium deal as well as questions regarding their ability to draw fans, questions remain as to whether Mr. Loria’s big bets will work, both on the balance sheet and on the ball field.  

                Arguably the most dramatic and potentially impactful change the Marlins made this year was the signing of former Met favorite, shortstop Jose Reyes.  Coming off the heels of a fantastic season where he hit .337/.384/.493 with 39 steals and a league leading 16 triples, Miami stole Reyes away from their NL East rival with a huge 6 year $106million dollar deal.  By all accounts, the Marlins acquired a game-changing player at the shortstop position, a wizard on the basepaths with 370 career steals, an above average defender at one of the most demanding defensive positions, accumulating a 2.1+ UZR/150 over his career, and most importantly a true ‘sparkplug’ of a hitter, getting on base and with power to the tune of a .368wOBA last year.  Moreover, despite his reputation as being injury prone, a closer look at his games played shows that Reyes has only had one season where he played less than a 125 games in a season since he became a full-time starter, making him not only valuable but durable as well, despite the rigors of the shortstop position.  The only problem is the Marlins already had a game-changing shortstop in Hanley Ramirez who since the Reyes signing has been quite clear that his has no intention of moving off his position for a player that has been arguably been his inferior over his career (.346wOBA Reyes career - .385wOBA Ramirez career).  Nevertheless, despite Hanley’s misgivings about the move and potential concerns about him ‘getting along’ with Jose it’s hard to not see this as a huge upgrade,  essentially replacing Emilo Bonafacio’s 3.3WAR last year on the infield for Reyes’ 6.4.  Those wins, in all likelihood, will mean a lot in a tight NL East race.

                From here, the Marlins sought to upgrade their rotation, and after striking out on top pitching free agent C.J. Wilson, the Marlins ‘settled’ on the more accomplished and more cost effective lefty Mark Buehrle for four years and $58million.  At first glance when comparing Wilson and Buehrle, given their raw stuff and recent success (Wilson has been the Rangers’ top starter for the last two years while Buehrle has gone unnoticed on several bad White Sox teams) it would seem that Miami really lost out, however a careful look at Mark’s body of work shows that he has been one of the most durable and reliable starters in the past decade.  Indeed, aside from throwing a no hitter and a perfect game in the last few years Buehrle has been the definition of a workhorse, throwing over 205 innings every year since 2002 and more importantly throwing quality innings.  In fact, while a cursory look at Buehrle’s statistics might scare away most teams with his 4.78ERA, his Fielding Independent Pitching Data or FIP was 3.98 which is in fact consistent with his entire career.  This statistic is more impressive when one considers that Mark has had some of the worst defenses in the league playing behind him in recent years (Chicago has been in the bottom five in UZR in the last three years) in addition to pitching half of his games at U.S. Cellular, which has been consistently rated as one of the biggest home run launching pads in baseball.  In short, with his quick delivery to the plate and his ability to throw strikes consistently Buehrle has been one of the most underrated and most reliable starters in the game, and given the going rate for top flight starting pitching on the open market $58million is a downright steal.  Adding Mark to an already promising rotation of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez, it’s not hard to see the Marlins competing with the class of the senior circuit. 

                Finally, in addition to signing one of the best position players and starting pitchers, the Marlins also snagged one of the best closers on the market in Heath Bell.  Signing for a relatively reasonable price of 3 years $29million (especially compared to the $50million the Phillies gave Jonathan Papelbon) the Marlins seem to have cemented their bullpen with one of the most consistent closers pitching today.  Indeed, since taking over the closer role in San Diego from Trevor Hoffmann, Bell has been among the tops in saves leaders, accumulating 132 saves in three years, and doing it in dominating fashion, with an ERA of 3.05 and an FIP of 2.55.  And even though this past year saw Bell’s strikeout numbers drop considerably from 11.09K/9 to 7.32K/9, given his age and consistent success most analysts are confident that these numbers are aberrational, as both Bill James and Fangraphs.com project those numbers to be around 9 K/9 next year.  Although closers are traditionally more volatile than other positions and his recent decline are reasons for concern, it again is difficult to argue that Bell does not represent an upgrade and some badly needed consistency in the Marlins bullpen, especially considering that their last closer, Leo Nunez, turned out to be using a fake name and passport and may possibly lose his opportunity to play in the bigs again.

               In spite of these additions to the Marlins, which as stated above are undoubtedly significant, there are reasons for concern.  For starters, reports by FOX’s Ken Rosenthal and others have suggested that these big deals are heavily backloaded, making them potential albatrosses for the organization if the deals don’t work and don’t result in more success in the short term.  Moreover, the Miami Herald has reported that the SEC is now investigating the financial records of the Marlins and demanded lists of investors and any political contributions made to Miami politicians.  This last charge is particularly troublesome for the organization because it begs the question of where is all this money that the Marlins are paying out coming from?  The stadium itself is being financed almost entirely by Florida taxpayers, whom foot over 80% of the entire cost, and the team itself is among the league’s lowest in both game attendance and revenue.  How could a team who can barely get 10,000 people show up to their games pay out hundreds of millions of dollars to top flight free agents and not go bankrupt?  The answers to these questions at the moment remain unclear, but what is clear is that the Marlins are taking some very substantial risks that might not pay off.  While the team has undoubtedly improved substantially, the Marlins still must overcome a still-potent Philadelphia Phillies team, a young and emerging Atlanta Braves team, and quite possibly the Washington Nationals as well (sorry Mets fans, I feel for you guys, but it’s not looking great for the short term for you).  These moves and several others may very well be the magic elixir that returns the Marlins to their not so distant past glory, however if they do not they may very well prove to be rather costly mistakes for both the Marlins and the citizens of Florida who may be paying for it. 

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Monday, February 14, 2011

For the Brewers, the Arrival of Young Arms Brings Hopes of Contention

seriously, why don't the Brewers wear these unis everday?
Assuming that like myself most of you readers out there are from the East Coast, you probably haven’t given much thought to the Milwaukee Brewers lately (or ever for that matter).  Located in a small market with an owner who’s never shown willingness to make a splashy free agent signing, the Brewers often get overlooked as far as teams that have improved themselves or who seem poised to make the next “big step.”  Nevertheless, while many other teams have made the back page of the newspaper signing guys to astronomical deals, the Brewers have rather quietly gone about improving themselves this offseason in the area they need it most; pitching.  Indeed, despite having such a potent lineup that produced the 4th most runs scored in the National League (11th overall) the Brewers undoubtedly struggled on the rubber, coming in at 14th in pitching in the NL with a very pedestrian 4.58ERA.  Clearly, if the Brewers ever hoped to make the playoffs again, especially with Prince Fielder set to hit the free agent market this coming offseason, Brewers GM Bob Melvin needed to move quickly to get some pitchers, and he clearly delivered.  Through a series of trades, this offseason the Brewers were able to acquire two excellent young pitchers, Zach Grienke and Shawn Marcum, without giving up much of their major league club, and as a result the Brewers appear to be poised to enter the national spotlight and possibly make their run into October.

As the Brewers rotation stands currently, Milwaukee is slated to have their rotation lineup something like Grienke, Yovani Gallardo, Shawn Marcum, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson, and this group, no matter how you line them up, is easily ten wins or more better than their rather abysmal 2010 counterparts.  Indeed, with the additions of Grienke and Marcum, the Brewers have been able to replace what was formerly a black hole of replacement-level performance to an undeniable strength of the team heading forward, but to fully appreciate how much of a step up they are we need to look first at whom they are replacing.   Starting first with arguably the worst of the bunch is 32 year old lefty Dave Bush, and even a cursory look at his numbers show him to be a complete non-entity, a pitcher who provides almost exactly what you could expect from any bum in their AAA system for a much higher cost.  For the 2010 season Bush tossed a respectable 174 innings last year, but only struck out 5.52 per nine innings, walked 3.36 per nine innings, while gave up an atrocious 1.45 home runs per nine innings to the tune of a 4.54ERA or a 0.1 Wins Above Replacement, 0.1!  Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure Bush is a nice guy, and being a lefty he’s got at least one thing going for him, however for a contending team you simply cannot have a guy with a 4.54ERA in the National League as your third starter and expect to win any games.  The same is true for the other two bums, Manny Parra and Chris Capuano who put up almost equally horrible numbers.  For Parra, who tossed the majority of the two at 122 innings pitched, Manny showed signs of talent by being able to strike out guys at a much more acceptable rate at 9.52 per nine, however he also walked an unacceptable 4.65 per nine and coughed up almost as many long balls as Bush, at 1.33 per nine.  These numbers, along with his 5.02ERA and equally embarrassing 0.4WAR, is fine if he’s clearly the worst pitcher on the staff, but between Bush as we have seen and Capuano, it’s a neck and neck race.  Hampered by injury issues Chris was limited to only 66 innings, however he was actually the most effective of the bunch with a 3.95ERA and 0.5WAR in that time, but again he also fell prey to the longball at a rate of 1.23 per nine as well.  All and all, If you add up this sorry trio of lefties you get one measly Win Above Replacement for nearly 400 innings in a season; this sort of output may sound like a dream come true for the Pirates, but for a team with two talented young All-Stars like Ryan Braun and Fielder, production like this simply is not acceptable.

Now I don’t mean to impugn the good names of these three pitchers, but when compared with the production of the two pitchers who will be replacing them it’s very easy to fall into it because they’re just so much better.  Starting first with Grienke, winner of the 2009 Cy Young and still only 27, let’s first take a look at his ridiculous numbers that year to give an idea of what this guy is capable of.  In 229 innings, the precocious right hander struck out a tidy 9.5 per nine, walked only 2, and gave up the longball infrequently at a rate of .4 per nine, giving him a 2.16ERA in the American League.  Truly, Grienke’s 2009 season, along with his 9.4 Wins Above Replacement, was one for the ages, and in fact a close look at his 2010 season shows him to be not that far off from those numbers.  Indeed, in 2010 Grienke threw almost the same amount of innings and gave up the same amount of walks and home runs as he did before, but Zach saw a decline in his strikeout rates to 7.4 per nine and his WAR to 5.2.  To be sure, such a precipitous decline in strikeouts is disconcerting and its possible Zach may never reach those heights again, however by moving to the more pitcher-friendly National League the odds of that happening are slim.  In truth, virtually every projection system has Grienke’s numbers bouncing back up again, including Marcel Projections and Bill James who both have his K per nine back to 8 or above, and along with a big spike in his WAR to back to around seven wins.  In short, just by adding Grienke alone the Brewers will have made up the value of the trio of lefties and a lot more, and that’s only the half of it.

In addition, the Brewers also traded for the 28 year old righty Shawn Marcum for their top prospect Brett Lawrie, and again it seems clear that the Brewers made themselves better immediately.  After having Tommy John surgery in 2008, Marcum appeared to come back strong this year and with another year of recovery appears to be poised to be even better moving away from the tough AL East.  Pitching 195 innings last year, Marcum struck out 7.6 per nine and only walked 1.98 per nine during that span, giving up 1.1 home runs, resulting in a 3.64 ERA in the toughest division in baseball; not too shabby.  Like Grienke, I also expect Marcum to benefit enormously from being in the more pitcher friendly league, which should only boost his already expanding value that netted him 3.5WAR last year while really still recovering from major surgery.  The combination of those two factors could easily see Marcum’s value go up by a win or more next year, making both him and Grienke formidable opponents for the rest of the NL Central.

Along with the young fireballer Yovani Gallardo (9.73 K/9, 3.84ERA 4.6WAR), Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson, it’s easy to see the Brewers going from a 77 win team from last year to a possibly 87 win team or more and competing for the NL Central Title. Although the Brewers undoubtedly gave up a lot of talented prospects to do it, and with teams like the defending champion Reds and the perennial contender Cardinals will undoubtedly make life difficult for them all year long, it is clear that these moves have turned the Brewers from an afterthought to a tough day at the ballpark because both Grienke and Marcum are young and cost controlled for the next handful of years.  Unfortunately for Milwaukee, with arguably their best player leaving for free agency next year, this window may be smaller than hoped, but as San Francisco showed this past season great starting pitching and a little bit of hitting is more than enough to get you far into the postseason and beyond. 

Just a note, with baseball season starting I’m going to try to be posting more (as well as possibly a guest post or two in there), but of course that’s all contingent on how much time I have with class and how much I can get myself to write when I’m not in class.  Thanks again for reading.  

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