Much has been made the last few weeks and months about Michael Young, his value, and whether he will be traded before the start of the season among baseball circles. For those who are not familiar, Young, the incumbent third baseman for the AL Champion Texas Rangers has been in flux since the signing of Adrian Beltre for five years $96million (the merits of this contract are dubious at best, but that’s for another day) to play the hot corner. This is not the first time that the Rangers have made Young change his position for a superior player, having happened with the signing of Alex Rodriguez in 2000 when Young was moved to second, only to be moved to shortstop after they traded for Alfonso Soriano in 2004, and finally to third base before the 2009 season to make room for the highly touted shortstop prospect Elvis Andrus; all the same, it seems that this move has been all that Young could bear, and now he is demanding a trade from the Rangers to either the Cardinals, Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rockies, Dodgers, Angels, and the Padres (according to sources). To be sure, for many teams the prospect of acquiring a six time All Star and Gold Glover to their teams is an exciting one, however there are financial and baseball concerns that make it unclear as to whether he’s “worth” it. Indeed, at age 33 Young is not a young player by any stretch and to make matters worse he’s owned $48 million over the next three years, which isn’t exactly a bargain. Nevertheless, it seems clear when compared to their in-house alternatives Michael Young would undoubtedly serve as a significant upgrade for several teams, notably the Colorado Rockies, provided they’re willing to pony up and take the good along with the bad.
In many respects, Michael Young is the kind of ballplayer any team would love to have on their team. A hard-working, team first guy, Young has been remarkably durable during his career, having played in at least 155 games every year, except for 2009 when he played 135; and when he’s been out there Young has done nothing but hit. Indeed, since coming into the league in 2000, Young has had 1,848 hits, ranking 30th among active players, and amassed five 200 hit seasons, and it’s not hard to see why. For anyone who has seen Michael play more than a few times, it becomes clear that Young is among the best at squaring up the ball on the bat, and his career line drive percentage of 24.1% (compared that to another great “pure” hitter Joe Mauer who’s line drive percentage is only 22.1%) shows that his reputation as a great pure hitter is clearly deserving. These attributes, as well as his well-documented humility (evidently he’s called the Patron Saint of Sports Sacrifice by local sportswriters for his willingness to move positions so readily) Young has endeared himself to the media and fans alike as a true gamer and competitor, much deservingly earning the tile of Face of the Franchise of the Texas Rangers.
Clearly, Michael Young has done a great deal in his time as a major leaguer to endear himself to baseball fans everywhere, however from a statistical perspective there is a lot to suggest that Michael is entering a decline phase from which he will likely not return to his All-Star form. Indeed, in 2010 Young had arguably one of his worst seasons to date, hitting only .284/.330/.444, a stark contrast to his 2009 season when he hit .322/.374/.518, and a closer look at the numbers makes it clear that those numbers are a bit inflated. Looking at his home/road splits, Young has severely missed the hitter friendly confines of Arlington Park, with a rather measly .753 OPS and 84 OPS+ on the road [note; 100 OPS+ is considered the baseline average replacement-level player] compared to his .859 OPS and 116 OPS+ at home. On the other side of the diamond, Young has never been a great defender, but the numbers also show he’s slipped considerably with the glove as well, compiling a -5.8 UZR per 150 games at third base last year, down from -4.2 UZR/150 last year. Even his numbers at other positions like shortstop and second base are no better, averaging a -10.4 UZR at short and a rather pedestrian -.5 at second respectively. All in all, these numbers strongly suggest that Michael Young is a guy whose best days might be possibly behind him. Sure it’s entirely possible that he regains his form of being a 200 hits a year guy, but at $16million a year that is a gamble that most teams are not financially able to take.
Now, all that negative stuff said about Michael Young, here’s why I think that this is a gamble for at least one team, the Rockies. For those who weren’t following or don’t care to remember, the Rockies fell short of the postseason last year after petering out in October, and in all likelihood part of that decline came from the lack of a viable candidate at second base. Indeed, for the season a collection of such notable bums like Clint Barmes, Jonathan Herrera, Eric Young Jr., and Melvin Mora totaled an absolutely horrific stat line of .246 batting average, six home runs and 63 RBIs while playing second base, and in truth things aren’t looking any better next season. Since last year the incumbent Barmes was shipped off to Houston, leaving only Eric Young Jr., as the de-facto second baseman and his numbers are even worse at .244/.312/.285, with little coming down the pipeline that is better. To be sure, a team that with star power like Troy Tulowitski and Carlos Gonzalez that hopes to contend the Rockies simply cannot afford to have such a gaping hole in their lineup, which is why trading for a guy like Michael Young makes a whole lot of sense. Now granted, Young has not played second base regularly for some time and in truth considering his numbers at short and third chances are he’ll be crappy with the glove, but his bat more than makes up for it. Indeed, even if he duplicates his current batting line, Young’s OPS is a solid .200 points higher than any other option they have internally and in fact Young’s career low batting average to balls in play (.311 to .350) suggests that he will be even better in Colorado. Add in the fact that Young is moving to the National League West and Coors Field, where the pitchers aren’t as good and Coors is arguably the only better hitters park than Arlington, Young could easily go back to being a 4 Wins Above Replacement Player in no time and dare I say it, the difference between Colorado contending and watching the playoffs from home.
Of course, I am not privy to Colorado’s finances so I don’t know if they could swing this deal, but the numbers clearly show that Young would undeniably represent a serious upgrade for the Rockies. Although his glove is undoubtedly suspect, and he may never have 200 hits in a season, the fact remains that Michael Young is still a very good ballplayer who can help a club in need. Unfortunately for Texas, there is no longer a space for him on the team and in all likelihood they will have to pay to send him away, but for whichever team takes a chance on him will be getting a consummate professional and a pure hitter for much less than what he’s really worth.
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