New York Nine

Baseball the way it was meant to be, down and dirty with brutally honest analysis

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

The Twins Know What They're Doing (Part One)



In the vast baseball landscape dominated by the big market teams like New York, Boston, and Los Angeles, it’s very easy to forget about the Minnesota Twins and what they’ve accomplished.  Hampered by a shoestring budget in a market that isn’t exactly what you’d call paradise, the Twins are the team that everyone forgets about, quietly making smart move after smart move and in the process becoming a mainstay of the powerful teams in the American League.  Indeed, despite a payroll that ranks among the lowest year after year, the Twins have made the playoffs five times since 2000, a feat that is only matched by four other teams on the Junior Circuit.  How do they do it?  What’s their secret that no one else seems to know?  In truth, there is no secret to the Twins’ success except for having a keen eye for talent and spending money judicially, as evidenced by the moves for J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson.
The trade for J.J. Hardy like many moves by the Twins was both unassuming and brilliant.  Traded in early November while everyone was worried with the World Series, the Twins swapped their talented but inconsistent center fielder Carlos Gomez in exchange for the former All-Star shortstop.  Some of you may remember that Gomez was the centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade with the Mets a few years back, and while it is clear the 24 year old centerfielder has talent, Carlos has considerable work to do before he can be considered a major league hitter.   Indeed, Carlos’s first two years for Minnesota have been nothing short of atrocious, hitting a measly .258/.296/.360 in 2008 and the next year he hit even worse, hitting an embarrassing .229/.287/.337; that’s an OPS+ of 64!  He’s not even close to being an okay hitter!  Now this isn’t to say Gomez has been totally worthless, somewhat making up for his lack of run production with some above average run prevention, posting a UZR/150 of 16.1 and 10.00 the last two seasons, but he still leaves a lot to be desired.  All of these factors considered, it is in fact pretty remarkable that the Brewers would be willing to give up a guy like Hardy when it’s so evident how flawed Gomez is as a player. 
In return for the talented Gomez Milwaukee traded former All-Star J.J. Hardy, a similarly talented, but more established talent.  Still only 26, the young shortstop has put up some gaudy offensive stats  that most teams would kill for, hitting 51 home runs between 2007-8 and posting a pretty impressive .284/.343/.478 batting line in that time.  Numbers like these got Hardy recognized quickly that he was one of the emerging power hitters of the National League.  But Hardy’s bat doesn’t tell the whole story as to how valuable he has been, because he’s been one of the better defensive shortstops as well.  Hardy’s UZR/150 for 2007-8 were above average and at times spectacular, posting numbers as high as 16.7 and averaging around 11.5.   In sum, combining a great bat with gold glove caliber defense, Hardy established himself as one of the more valuable and irreplaceable young players in all of baseball by the summer of 2008.    For a point of reference, Fangraphs.com put Hardy’s 2008 value as an astounding $22.6 million, or five wins above a replacement player; the guy is no joke.
Now of course this is not the whole story with Hardy, and the most recent numbers aren’t nearly as kind to the young shortstop.  Coming off an All-Star year there were a lot of expectations on Hardy, but for some reason or another expectations were not met.  For the year Hardy hit a rather pedestrian .229/.302/.357, with an OPS+ 76 that eventually earned him a demotion to AAA for the remainder of the season.  To be sure, there is no way to sugarcoat Hardy’s disappointing season, but there are a lot of reasons to suggest that he still can be valuable and at best return to form this year.  For one, J.J. at 26 is still relatively young and still has time before he hits his prime.  For another, Hardy’s BABIP was .241, an extraordinarily low number that suggests that a lot of his misfortune could possibly be the product of bad luck.   Finally, Hardy is at the very least still an above average defender, posting a UZR/150 of 8.6 last year, the same number he had the season before.  None of these factors ensure that Hardy will go back to hitting 26 home runs and playing gold glove defense, but they are at the very least encouraging.
To be sure, it seems that the Twins here made a move that can only improve their team for 2010 and beyond.  Even when J.J. Hardy was at his worst last season he still was a better hitter than Gomez has ever been, along with comparable defense at a more demanding defensive position, how can they lose?  It’s a move that makes a lot of sense for the Twins and is consistent with their long history of being a smart organization.  Even when they make mistakes, like they did with Gomez, the Twins appear to be properly equipped to handle it thanks to great scouting and an eye for the numbers like the ones I showed you here in order to make something out of nothing.  Of course it’s entirely possible that a talented athlete like Carlos Gomez will finally “figure it out” and become a major league hitter and prove the Twins to be foolish, but as the numbers suggest there isn’t a lot of hope for that happening when the guy can’t get on freaking base.  In short, the Twins know this better than most teams do, which is why they seem to be able to grab talent out of thin air and continue to be one of the more successful franchises in baseball. 
Part Two of my take on the Twins will hopefully be up tomorrow, assuming I get my reading done at a reasonable time.

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Tuesday, February 9, 2010

All The Talent in the World


I can’t say that I’ve ever gotten a request for an article, but when someone gives me an excuse to write about something Yankee related, a Yankee prospect no less, I have to jump at the opportunity.  Jesus Montero, for those who aren’t familiar with the young Venezuelan, is a twenty year old catching prospect and is arguably the most talented prospect the Yankees have had since Derek Jeter.  Conversely, Montero is also  one of the most controversial prospects in that time as well.  Indeed, talent evaluators like Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are decidedly torn about where the future lies for the 6’4 catcher.  Can he stay at catcher?  Is there a spot for him in the Yankees lineup with all the veteran players signed to long term deals?  These answers and more remain to be seen, but what seems clear is that wherever he’ll play, Montero will hit.
It is fashionable to deride Yankee Prospects as being overrated by the media and Yankee fans, but Jesus Montero’s talent cannot be overstated.  Indeed, Baseball America has recently put out their top 25 prospects in all of baseball list and they put Montero at number five.  John Manuel, noted talent evaluator calls Montero “The Minors Best Hitter,” and when you look at the ridiculous numbers he’s put up while only being twenty this season it’s easy to see why.    Starting in 2007, Montero made his debut in the pitcher friendly Gulf Coast League and hit .280/.366/.421 with three homes and six doubles in 33 games.  Not too shabby for a 17 year old kid who’s learning to catch at a professional level, but it was the 2008 during his first full season where Montero truly distinguished himself as an elite prospect.  The Yankees placed him in the South Atlantic League, a tough league for an 18 year old to handle, and he met the challenge handily, hitting .326 in 171 games and finishing in the top ten in runs scored with 86, 34 doubles, 87 RBI, and 258 total bases.  In addition, Montero hit seventeen home runs, good for twelfth in the league.  These are impressive numbers for any 18 year old prospect, but for an 18 year old who’s playing the demanding position of catcher is doubly impressive.
In 2009, Montero continued his hot hitting ways as he abused minor league hitters at multiple levels.  Beginning the season in High-A Ball, Montero made it very easy for the Yankees to move him up quickly, hitting an insane .356/.406/.583 in 180 bats, smacking eight homes and fifteen doubles in that time.  From there, Montero was moved to Double A where he continued his hot hitting as one of the youngest playing in the league posting a .317/.370/.539 batting line with another nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 44 games.  Unfortunately, Montero’s season was cut short in August with a hand injury, limiting his games played last season, but it seems to have been enough for many to anoint him the best bat in the minors with considerable ease.   From all accounts, the sky is the limit for Montero in the majors, and has already drawn comparisons from such other talented right handed hitters like Manny Ramirez.  This seems like hyperbole, but in truth there is no other prospect or young player in the game today more poised to reach those heights as a hitter.  Montero possesses a great eye at the plate, and a smooth, level swing that enables him to hit for average, but also power, and lots of it.  In the scouting scale of 20 to 80, with 80 being the highest, Keith Law of ESPN and John Manuel of Baseball America put his power at 80, thanks to his quick bat and powerful frame.  To be sure, as a Yankee fan there’s not much to dislike about this kid’s bat and the potential to have a perennial All-Star waiting in the wings.
Now I’m sure some of you are wondering why I said that Montero is a controversial prospect considering all the off-the charts good stats I just rattled off, but there is an area of concern for Montero for is glove.  As mentioned earlier, Montero is only twenty years old and he’s already listed at 6’4 and 225 pounds, with considerable room to grow.  Subsequently, there is a lot of concern within Yankee management and the talent evaluators out there that Montero simply won’t be too big to play there for any extended period.  Indeed, traditionally a position where guys are small, a guy the size of Jesus’ is going to be more susceptible to wear and tear having to be in the catcher position all game for 162 games.
 Further, even if Montero can handle the rigors of the position, he’s not exactly Johnny Bench back there defensively.  With a long and slow throwing motion and not a whole lot of athleticism, Montero so far as proven to be a defensive liability behind the plate, so much so that there is a lot of doubt as to whether he’s even playable behind the plate.  For most teams this wouldn’t be a problem, as most teams could simply slot him over at first base, but with Mark Teixeira signed for the next six years, first base isn’t really an option for Montero.  From there, things get dicey as to where Jesus can fit on this team because of the plethora of old players on the Yankee roster.  If the Yankees were to decide to make Jesus a full time DH, this would create problems as Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez get older and closer to forty.  Neither of those guys will be able to play their current position indefinitely, and it seems likely that at least one of them will need to DH as the years go by, leaving yet another potential lineup spot for Montero filled.  The answer to this quandary remains unclear, but what is clear that Cashman is going to have to get creative to fit him in somewhere soon.
No one can know for sure exactly how good Jesus Montero will be, but he’s certainly more equipped than most to succeed at a very high level in the majors.  Still only twenty, Montero still has a lot of time to grow and develop as a player, and the player that he could grow into could be something very special.  It’s possible that the Yankees will be unable to find a suitable spot for him and eventually trade him for major league talent as they are apt to do, but as a Yankee fan I really hope that doesn’t happen.   As far as I know, the Yankees haven’t had a power hitting prospect with this much potential since maybe Mickey Mantle, and I’d hate to see him develop and flourish somewhere other than the Bronx.  Hopefully Cashman feels the same way.
On a side note, if you want to submit a suggestion for me to write an article, just let me know and I’ll see if I can’t mess it up too bad.  Thanks for reading.

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Friday, February 5, 2010

Lincecum wants to get paid


This time of the year is always the hardest to find anything decent to write about in the world of baseball.  Only weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting in spring training (thank God), teams have pretty much finalized all their important roster spots, and all the important free agents have signed deals by this point (Cough cough Johnny Damon Cough).  All of this adds up to a pretty boring few weeks for a sports fan who doesn’t have a team in the Super Bowl and doesn’t give a shit about basketball and hockey like me.  Thankfully, there are a few interesting under the radar stories going on in baseball that to the untrained eye may appear to be unimportant, but in actuality could be a great indicator of what’s to come in the next few years.  One such case is the upcoming arbitration case of Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants.  Lincecum, only 25 and coming off his second straight Cy Young Award, is easily one of the best pitchers in baseball already and is finally eligible for a raise via arbitration.  However, if the reports about the initial offers are correct, it seems that it’s getting pretty ugly pretty quickly between the two parties.  Lincecum is asking for $13 million for this season, a number that would obliterate Ryan Howard’s prior record of $10 million, but the Giants are trying to lowball him with an $8 million offer.  Now to you and me normal people $8 million sounds like a pretty sweet deal, especially when you consider this would be a significant increase from his $400,000 salary last year, but the Giants’ decision to be cheap now could hurt them in the long run.  Bad feelings from a hard fought arbitration could ultimately push Lincecum away when it comes time for free agency, and the Giants can’t let that happen because he’s simply too good to lose.
A lot has been written by the wiry right hander in major sports periodicals, but it’s truly difficult to understate how absolutely sick Tim Lincecum is at pitching.  At  5’11” and 170 pounds, Lincecum certainly doesn’t strike the average person as really intimidating, but few pitchers in the history of the game have so thoroughly dominated the game from the get-go as he has.  Drafted in the first round out of Washington University, Lincecum was in the majors after only pitching an unheard of 62 innings in the minor leagues because he was simply outclassing hitters.  In those 62 innings, Lincecum struck out 104 hitters, only gave up 26 hits and walked 23; that’s ridiculous.  It’s hard to emphasize how unprecedented this level of dominance is, but consider for a moment that Jon Lester, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, and CC Sabbathia all pitched at least 450 innings before they were ready to handle the rigors of major league pitching.  Little Timmy Lincecum was ready in 62 innings and never turned back.
After getting to the majors, most pitchers go through a period of adjustment to major league hitters due to the dramatic jump of talent they’re facing; the same cannot be said about Lincecum.  Only 22 years old at the time, Lincecum came up to the major league roster and dazzled hitters with his blazing fastball and his wicked curve.  In 146 innings, Lincecum struck out 150 while only walking 65, to the tune of a 4.00ERA.  He kept hitters to a crazy .228 batting average and gave up only .7 home runs per nine innings, and here’s he crazy part, he was even better than those numbers say.  FIP or fielding independent pitching, put Lincecum’s ERA at only 3.63, suggesting that if Lincecum didn’t have bunch of bums defensively like Barry Bonds playing for him he would have been even better.  To be sure, it’s very rare that you see a pitcher dominate this well so early, and the scary part is he got a lot better.
Expectations were high for Lincecum in 2008 and it’s pretty easy to say he exceeded those expectations and more with his first Cy Young Season in only his first full season in the majors.  In 227 innings, Lincecum managed to win 18 games for an absolutely atrocious Giants team thanks to his utter dominance on the mound.  Lincecum struck out 265 men that year, while bringing his walk rate down from 4.0 per nine to 3.3 per nine and his WHIP from 1.28 to 1.17.  Fangraphs.com valued his performance at an astounding 7.5 wins above replacement player and a salary $33.7million that year, and it’s easy to see why.  The guy just embarrassed hitters out there, and earned himself national acclaim for it.
One would think that Lincecum would be due for some sort of speed bump or sophomore slump going into 2009, but in fact he just keeps getting better, how is this possible?  Tim lowered his ERA to 2.48, lowered his walks again from 84 to 68, and lowered his WHIP to 1.05 thanks to his improved changeup, a pitch that baseballanaylsts.com lists as the most effective pitch in baseball last year, and it’s his third pitch!  Although he only won 15 games last year for a similarly shitty Giants team, Tim got the Cy Young, and it’s hard to argue with the voters on this one.  The best pitcher in the National League just got better, and just because his team has a bunch of stiffs that couldn’t muster a few runs to get him the wins they couldn’t let his prodigious deeds go unrewarded.
Okay, so I’m sure you’re wondering still “well that’s all well and fine, but why does he deserve the highest arbitration number in baseball history?  $8 million is nothing to scoff at, and it’s the best for a pitcher ever, what gives?”  To be sure, an award of $8 million would be nice, and even if the arbitrator split the difference at say $10.5 million you couldn’t feel all that sorry for the guy, but the point is this guy is historically great on so many levels, why try to piss him off?  Despite years of bungling drafts and trades by signing veteran guys and getting older and older ever year, the Giants stumbled upon a guy who’s dominance is arguably in the same pantheon of some of the all time greats like Koufax in ’66 or Pedro in 99’; you managed to get this right, isn’t it worth the extra $5million to ensure that he stays happy and wants to stay in San Francisco?  This guy’s potential is unlimited, already one of the top five pitchers in the game at 25, this is the guy you spend money on, this is the guy that is worth overpaying for, but the Giants don’t seem to get it.  I for one feel sorry for the Giants fans, because Lincecum has already expressed his displeasure with the Giant’s handing of these negotiations and it’s hard to argue with him.  He’s been the best or among the best wherever he’s been and deserves every penny he wants. 

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