New York Nine

            On the heels of one of the most exciting and thrilling World Series in recent memory, the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals head into the 2012 season a very different team.  If you haven’t heard (but I’m sure you have) the Cardinals signature player, the man most associated with “The Cardinal Way” since Stan “The Man” Musial, Albert Pujols rejected the Cardinals’ offer and signed with the Anaheim Angels to a monstrous 10 year $254million deal.  To be sure, combined with the loss of their Hall of Fame Manager Tony LaRussa, the loss of Pujols has to leave any halfway sane Cardinals fan feeling like the team is about to go down the tubes, however the reality of the situation is far less dire.  While the loss of the future Hall of Famer will certainly hurt the Cardinals in the short term, the addition of new players or injured players like Carlos Beltran and Adam Wainwright will help alleviate that drop off and enable the Cardinals to not have to pay Albert big bucks as he enters his decline phase as a player.

                Of all the moves the Cardinals have made this off-season, none has the potential to soften the blow of losing Albert Pujols than the signing of six-time All-Star Carlos Beltran.  After a surprisingly quiet free agency for Carlos, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak signed Beltran to a 2 year/$26million dollar deal that undoubtedly has some risk, but a great deal of upside.  Although missing some time to begin the year, between his stints with the Mets and Giants, Carlos displayed his keen eye at the plate and still prodigious power despite playing in some of the worst home run parks in the game, playing in 142 games and hitting to the tune of a .300/.385/.525 slash-line, with 39 doubles, 22 home runs and a .389wOBA.  These numbers, although hardly Pujols-esque, are still easily among the best in the league for an outfielder and should only be improved by the move to a far more hitter-friendly park in St. Louis.  Nevertheless, as any Mets fan (or Giants fan) will tell you, Carlos is not the same guy he was a few years ago.  For starters, Beltran, who has always been injury prone and has some bum knees, one of which required microfracture surgery, but instead chose to undergo less evasive arthroscopic surgery and it has clearly been to his detriment.  No longer a graceful runner in center field, Carlos was forced to move to right field and clearly was not the same player, posting a UZR/150 of -9.2 between his stints in New York and San Francisco, as well as a less than impressive -11.0 RngR.  Entering his age 35 season, Beltran could very well see these knee problems affect his effectiveness at the plate and may turn out to be a bad signing, but the point is the risk isn’t all that great.  While he is older and could very well fall off a cliff, the fact of the matter is Carlos was worth 4.7WAR last season, which comes out to about to being worth about $22million.  Even if it does fall off a bit, the Cardinals are still likely to get a great deal of value from Carlos and be well worth the money over two years.

                In addition to the help coming from outside the Cardinals organization, help from inside the organization in the form of Staff Ace Adam Wainwright should also significantly soften the blow of the loss of Pujols.  Adam injured his elbow last spring training and was forced to miss the entirety of the 2011 season to recover from Tommy John Surgery; in the past this would cause concern that he may never regain his former ace form, however the ridiculously high success rate these days makes him a good bet to be as good as new.  For certain, it is a testament to the Cardinals last year that they were able to overcome the loss of Wainwright and win the Series because he was so damn valuable to them in years prior.  Indeed, in his last full season in 2010 Wainwright was an Ace in every sense of the word, tossing an impressive 230 innings to the tune of a 2.32 ERA (and a 2.86 FIP to back it up) and displaying excellent control, with 8.32K/9 and an even more impressive 3.80 K/BB ratio, which was among the top five in the senior circuit that year.  Of course, like any surgery there is always an element of risk that Adam may not be the same guy he was, but again given his age (just 30) and the success rate of Tommy John (many pitchers are even better after Tommy John), it’s hard to not see Wainwright come close to his 6.1WAR from that season, which again was worth according to Fangraphs.com over $24million to the Cardinals.  Between the two the Cardinals are adding potentially ten wins to their team, which although will not exactly replace what a superstar like Pujols gives a team, undoubtedly gives the team a very good chance to be in the mix come October next year.

                Of course, as wonderful as these players may be for the Cardinals, neither of them are Albert Pujols; though in light of Albert’s age and uncharacteristically down year, the Cardinals may have dodged a bullet.  Of course, at least in the short term it’s hard to not like the move by the Angels in signing Pujols for the simple reason is that he’s Albert Freaking Pujols, the best baseball player on the planet.  While still only 32 Albert has already put together a Hall of Fame resume, accumulating 87.8WAR for his career, 445 home runs, a .328/.420/.617 slash-line, ten all star games, three MVP awards, and two gold gloves; this isn’t just a great player we’re talking about here, we’re talking about a guy on the short list of being one of the greatest of all time and arguably the best first baseman since Lou Gehrig, and he’s not even done.  Nevertheless, while the Angels were smart to acquire a player of Pujols’ stature under any circumstances there are reasons for concern.  For one, Albert is coming off what was easily his worst season to date, where he hit ‘only’ .299/.366/.541 with 37 home runs and 29 doubles.  To be fair, these are not bad numbers by any measure, and furthermore Albert admitted the specter of his contract negotiations affected his play, however these are not numbers of an all time great that the Angels are paying for.  Although most projection systems forecast a return to glory for Albert (Bill James and Fangraphs project him to have approximately a .319/.410/.585 stat line) it is entirely possible that Albert’s best days are behind him.  Players like Jimmy Foxx, Mel Ott, Albert Belle and a host of others saw a steep decline after they turned 32 making it substantially likely that Albert do the same.  Moreover, Albert’s contract, while fair relative to his value as a player could potentially be an albatross to the Angels in the long term.  As reported by Ken Rosenthal, Albert’s contract is very back-loaded, with him getting only around $16million now and the second half getting over $30million which could very well hurt the Angels’ ability to compete if Albert isn’t Albert anymore.    One can’t help but think of the example of Alex Rodriguez, who also got a ten year deal after his age 32 and has declined considerably in the four years since, and wonder if Albert will suffer a similar fate.   However unlike the Cardinals who despite their rapid fans are very much a mid-market ball club, the Angels in light of their huge new TV deal and the decline of the Dodgers in the LA market can afford to make such a gamble.  Given these risks it seems very likely that in a few years Cardinals fans may be very well thanking the Angels for paying Albert all that money to leave for Sunny Southern California.

             Even in light of all these very rational reasons to feel better about the Cardinals long term without Albert Pujols than with him, it will still be hard for Cardinals fans to see Albert Pujols wearing a red hat with a Halo instead of a Red Bird.  Players like Pujols don’t come along very often, so to see him leave in the middle of his career after so many great moments has to be disheartening.  Nevertheless, given the rather astute moves Mr. Mozeliak has made to make the Post-Pujols Era not so frightening, Cardinal fans have a litany of reasons to believe that the division titles, pennants and World Series championships will not leave town with Albert.  And even the Cards aren’t as good as they once were, Cardinal fans should take solace in knowing that for a decade they had the honor and privilege of seeing one of the best that ever lived play in their home town, and that’s a lot more than most baseball or indeed any sports fan can say with a straight face.  

                By all accounts, The New York Yankees in the post-Steinbrenner era has been an undeniably strange one for Yankee fans.  Once the champions of the back of the sports page vying for the top the free agents or hottest trade target on the market, the past few years have seen the Yankees embracing austerity, searching for bargain basement deals and resisting the temptation to deal their highly touted prospects in order to let them practice their wares in pinstripes on the cheap.  To be sure, coming off a 97 win season on the strength of surprising performances by the likes of Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, and Ivan Nova, this formula has worked well in the short term, and in turn enabled GM Brian Cashman to lower to the payroll to a somewhat reasonable $189 payroll (by Yankee standards), but will this strategy work in the years to come? The answer to this question it seems rests on the young shoulders of Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos and several others coming along the Yankee farmhand pipeline and the ability of high priced veterans like A-Rod, Jeter and Teixeria to stay healthy and live up to their contracts.

                Arguably the most important piece of the puzzle for the Yankees is the continued growth and success of the 22 year old uber-prospect Jesus Montero.  Blocked most of the year at both catcher and designated hitter by Russell Martin and Jorge Posada, Jesus finally got a shot in September and did not disappoint.  Although limited to a mere 69 plate appearances, Montero’s potential was on display to the Yankee faithful, hitting an impressive .328/.406/.590 with four home runs, three of which went to the opposite field.  Now with Jorge gone and likely retired, it seems that Jesus will finally be able to find at bats consistently next year, however questions remain regarding his defensive ability and the Yankees’ desire to have a full time DH.  In truth, especially with Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez getting older and more brittle Yankee Manager Joe Girardi will likely want to give a great deal of those DH ABs to them in order to keep their legs fresh over the whole season, thereby likely limiting his ability to get 500 at bats there.  And the catcher position is equally problematic for Jesus, given the fact that Russell Martin has established himself as one of the better defensive catchers in the AL whereas Jesus’ reputation as a catcher has been characterized as dubious at best.  Indeed, virtually every scout from Keith Law of ESPN to John Sickels of Baseball America has seriously questioned his ability to be an effective defensive catcher due to his size and general lack of mobility behind the plate.  Nevertheless, Brian Cashman has been adamant that like Jorge Posada before him, Montero can become an effective catcher with more reps and patience and has been reluctant to consider him a full time DH.  If Mr. Cashman is right, Montero offers the Yankees production at the catcher position that could easily meet or exceed Posada’s production in his prime, providing the Yankees with cheap, cost-controlled 30 home run power at one of the most difficult positions on the diamond.

                As important as Montero will be to the Yankees in the years to come, the success of the Yankees in 2012 largely rests on the shoulders of Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes, the young promising pitchers on the staff.  Although their histories are quite different, Hughes coming up at age 20 with huge expectations while Nova a Rule-5 pick who struggled just to get on the roster, both have proved to be important contributors to the Yankees in the past two years, with Phil winning 18 games in 2010 and Ivan winning 17 despite being sent down during part of the year.  Nevertheless, there are reasons for concern for both heading forward.  Phil Hughes in particular has had issues staying healthy, going down for a large part of this season and even when he was healthy he was less than stellar, posting a career worst 5.70ERA, a 5.67 K/9 and not so reassuring FIP of 4.58.  These numbers may be an aberration, given his huge jump in innings pitched the year before, going from 86 in 2009 to 176 in 2010 (not including the post-season), but there remain larger concerns regarding his ability to get major league hitters out effectively.  Indeed, despite attempts to add a third pitch, Hughes has been largely be unable to find a put away pitch to complement his stellar fastball and curve, and as a result he has become an extreme fly ball pitcher with an astounding 44.8% FB rate last year (worst in the MLB last year).  This inability to get ground ball outs, particularly in light of his home stadium, Yankee Stadium, a notorious home run haven, makes the former phenom decidedly not a sure bet to return to form.

                Conversely, for Ivan Nova, the young righty hopes to avoid a similar sophomore slump to that of Hughes despite some rather unimpressive peripheral stats.  Indeed, although possessing an impressive fastball and an improving slider, Ivan has had trouble striking guys out at a level comparable to top flight starters in the league, posting a rather pedestrian 5.33K/9 and a downright problematic 3.10BB/9.  Of course, it would be unfair to say that these numbers are representative of his actual success, as Nova’s ERA and FIP both steadily declined each month, posting a 3.82ERA and 3.20FIP in his final month of the season, making him easily the Yankees second most reliable starter down the stretch, but it is hard to ignore the healthy amount of luck Ivan got during those months, holding hitters to a BABIP of .283 and leaving base runners stranded on base at a truly unsustainable level of 73.2%.  All of these statistics and more make Ivan a surer bet than Hughes, but still not quite a pitcher whom you can put down in ink as a true number two pitcher behind CC Sabbathia.  Indeed, it is certainly possible that Nova keeps up his good fortune, but like Hughes the only way to ensure future success is development of a third and equally effective pitch.

                In another era in Yankee history, these young and unproven players would likely not be relied on so heavily to produce in pinstripes, however it seems that the rather onerous contracts of some of New York’s veteran stars have forced Mr. Cashman to pinch some pennies.  Indeed, thanks to contracts given out to more established stars like Alex Rodriguez (making $30million a year), Mark Texieria ($23million per year) Cashman has had to fight hard to keep the Yankees under the luxury tax threshold while still remaining competitive. The only problem it seems is that these highly salaried stars have not lived up to their rather weighty contracts in the past two years.  Particularly for Texieria the decline has been quite rapid and damaging, going from hitting a stellar .292/.383/.565 in 2009 to last year only managing a rather pedestrian .248/.341/.494; these numbers may be fine for a first baseman on a mid-market team, however when you’re paying over $20million to the guy, you’re not exactly getting a lot of bang for your buck.  Certainly, many will point to Texieria’s home run totals, of which he has kept constant, hitting 39 dingers this year, the same as his 2009 season, however it seems that the power has come at the expense of his formerly keen batting eye and ability to hit to all fields.  In fact, Mark has admitted as much that he became too enamored by the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, but mere awareness of the problem won’t be enough for Mark to regain his form.  Time and time again this postseason Texieria looked hapless at the plate, swinging wildly at bad pitches by the Tigers staff, and in order for New York to overcome the Rangers, Tigers, Red Sox and more of the league these tendencies must come to an end.

                Finally, I would be remiss if I did not discuss Alex Rodriguez and his rather precipitous decline because of the apparent damage it has done to the overall strength of the Yankee lineup.  Now entering his age 37 season, the days of Alex’s MVP runs with 54 home runs and stellar defense are clearly behind him, and along with it his famous durability.  Indeed, after never having played less than 125 games his entire career, Alex couldn’t even break the 100 game mark in 2011 due to nagging hip issues, and as a result his overall numbers saw a sharp regression to the mean.  Although Alex was able to still get on base at a healthy rate of .362, Rodriguez saw a sharp decline in batting average and power (.277 and .461 respectively, the first time he posting a slugging percentage lower than .500 since 1998!) resulting in only 16 home runs.  Of course, at Alex’s age in the post-steroid era (Ryan Braun notwithstanding) a regression is expected, but with six years left on his monstrous $300million dollar deal a decline so sharp so early is really hurting the Yankees’ ability to compete.  Even more than Texieria, the Yankees need Alex to come somewhere near his former levels of production at the plate in order to provide protection for the new big bats of the Yankee lineup in Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson.

              To be sure, the notion of austerity for the Yankees is undoubtedly quite different than that of the Kansas Cities and Pittsburghs of the world, but it’s clearly a departure from business as usual in the Bronx.  Whereas in past years I would have expected Cashman to make a big bid on Japanese pitching phenom Yu Darvish, instead the Yankees weren’t even in the same stratosphere as the bids by former Bronx punching bags Texas and Toronto.  This is not to say that the Yankees will not be able to compete with the new big spenders for the pennant year in and year out in the future, but it is clear that now more than ever, the Yankees must find ways to spend money wisely.  As any halfway knowledgeable Yankee fan will tell you, big spending will not necessarily ensure success and in fact (thanks for nothing Carl Pavano, Jared Wright etc etc), as in the cases of Alex Rodriguez and Texieria presently, big spending now can often hamstring a team from making the team better due to the financial burden of a big time deal.  Luckily for New York, in Brian Cashman the Yankees are fortunate enough to have one of the most adept and competent General Managers in the game, one who does not necessarily get the same fan-fare of Theo Epstein or Andrew Friedman, but who has the record and the rings to show that he knows a thing or two about putting a baseball team together.  More than any one asset, Cashman is the key to success for the Yankees in the future to find ways to win without the bottomless wallet of the late George M. Steinbrenner.  

                              Since their inception in 1993 the Florida (now Miami) Marlins have never been an organization that has been content to abide by the conventional wisdom of baseball.  Whereas many much older and more established franchises are content to wait patiently to develop prospects and cultivate a fan base to increase revenues and then in turn raise spending, the Marlins under owner Jeffery Loria, despite a laughably small fan base, have eschewed long term thinking and gone about trying to win now and worrying about the consequences later.  Twice now since its inception the Marlins have staggeringly reached the mountaintop of baseball, in 1997 and 2003 respectively, only to quickly dissemble these teams in wholesale fire-sales, leaving the franchise barren of talent for years to come.   Now on the precipice of opening a new ballpark in Miami (with some of the worst uniforms ever to hit major league sports) it seems Mr. Loria and the Marlins have forgone the old formula and engaged on a spending spree, going after and getting many of the best free agents available, and now seem poised to make their presence felt in the NL East.  Nevertheless, given the recent developments of an ongoing SEC investigation due to a rather fishy stadium deal as well as questions regarding their ability to draw fans, questions remain as to whether Mr. Loria’s big bets will work, both on the balance sheet and on the ball field.