It feels like forever since I wrote a post so I figured I’d ease back into things with some quick points on fantasy baseball. Now I’m in the minority here, but I think that fantasy baseball is the best fantasy sport to play over football by a long shot (I know, real shock that I’d like something baseball-related over everything else). For one, baseball is more suited for fantasy sports because it’s more easily quantifiable. As some of my work here and the thousands of other baseball-websites will show you, the science of evaluating baseball has come a long way in the last twenty years; if you’re looking for a stat regarding some aspect of the game, chances are someone has already thought of it. As a consequence, it’s generally easier to determine if a player was a fluke or for real if you thoroughly analyze a player’s advanced numbers. Take for example Nick Swisher, who in 2008 with the White Sox was absolutely terrible, hitting only .214 and barely 20 home runs, but a closer look at the numbers show that this wasn’t an accurate evaluation of his overall talent. Indeed, Swish had a league low batting average on balls in play that kept his numbers artificially low; Nick wasn’t necessarily bad, he just was unlucky. And lo and behold, next year after being traded to the Yankees he increased his OPS+ from 92 to 129 and hit 29 home runs. In short, baseball in my opinion is more fun to play because if you’re willing to put the work in to correctly evaluate a player’s talent, absent a terrible injury bug, chances are you’re going to do pretty well. Compare that with football where there are so many variables to consider and so little comparative statistical data, it’s a crapshoot. To be sure, as someone who played football my whole life and watches the NFL every week, you’d think I’d have my finger on the pulse on who’s going to be good and bad every year, but I have no fucking clue and I usually end up at the bottom of the league, and why? Because so much is dependent on what others players do, so much is contingent upon other guys doing their job like the lineman keeping their blocks, the quarterback making a good read, the running back picking up the blitz, etc etc that even if your guy does everything right he still won’t get the points. Indeed, sometimes you’ll just get back luck even by a coaches’ scheme, where a coach will simply decide he wants to attack one particular aspect of the defense and as a result your guy doesn’t get any touches. It’s a great spot, but it’s a stupid system for fantasy that frankly isn’t even that fun if you’re winning because so much is just shit luck.
Okay, that wasn’t really a short point, but you get the idea. For me, if you really want to get the best analysis on fantasy or baseball in general you need to get Baseball Prospectus, but for those who don’t want to throw down twenty bucks for the Baseball Nerd Bible here’s some thoughts of guys who I think are overrated and underrated.
Overrated
Jason Heyward – I’ve got to get this out of the way first because I’m tired of hearing about how great the guy is for the last several weeks and it’s getting on my nerves. For those who aren’t familiar with Jason, he’s the stud prospect for the Atlanta Braves who on the strength of a monster spring is going to start the season as Atlanta’s right fielder while only twenty years old. Now if you talk to scouts and fantasy buffs alike they’ll most likely wax poetic about how great his swing is and how strong he is and how he’s destined for greatness, but the problem is right now he’s 20 and there isn’t a whole lot of recent history of 20 year olds tearing it up. Indeed, since 2000 the best statistical season of a 20 year old was Miguel Cabrera and he hit .268/.325/.468 with 12 home runs. Now this isn’t bad, but is it worth the 11th or 12th round pick that people are drafting him? Not really, and while he could always do better, the numbers aren’t in his favor.
Mark Reynolds – Now usually this is a guy that I’d like because he gives you home runs and steals a plenty, 44 and 24 respectively, but not at where I’m seeing him drafted with his obvious flaws. Indeed, in both Yahoo and ESPN.com drafts he’s in the top 20 of players to be drafted on average and Reynolds has too many holes to be worth a pick that high. For those who don’t know, Reynolds has the record for strikeouts in a season TWICE, obliterating his record from 2008 of 204 with an astounding 223 last year. Usually I don’t mind a guy with a lot strikeouts, but someone who has that much trouble putting the ball in play who also doesn’t have a real high OBP of .349, there’s no way I’m going near the guy because those numbers aren’t sustainable with that many whiffs.
Underrated
Billy Butler – Maybe I overestimated the league I was in yesterday, but when someone said “who’s Billy Butler?” I was a little disappointed because this guy is a can’t miss player. If you looked at his standard peripherals you wouldn’t be that impressed, hitting .301 with 21 home runs, but what is so crazy is that in addition to those 21 home runs he hit 51 doubles while only 22. For those who don’t know, there haven’t been a whole lot of players to do that, and all of them are pretty damn good if not great, including Hank Greenberg, A-Rod, and Pujols, all Hall of Famers or soon to be, and Miguel Cabrera, who’s no slouch himself. To be sure, this is elite company, and yet he’s still getting “who’s Billy Butler?” Do yourself a favor and draft him, he’s going late and no one knows how good this guy is.
Denard Span – Everyone who I’ve talked to about fantasy baseball in the last two weeks is probably tired of hearing this guy’s name again, but Denard Span in my opinion is a fantasy stud. Ranked outside of the top 100 in most leagues because of his lack of power, Span now the starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter for the Twins and is poised for a big season. Coming off a year where he hit in pretty much every spot in the lineup, Span had a hell of a year for a leadoff hitter, hitting .311/.392/.419 with 23 stolen bases in only a 140 games. The guy doesn’t have great power, (although he did have 10 triples) but what he does provide is runs, with 97 last year, batting average, and steals, which he’ll have an opportunity to do now as the full time lead off guy. Sure he’ll probably never hit 25 home runs, but Span has a lot of value if you’re getting him in the right spot.
I could go on forever about fantasy sleepers and busts, but I’ll spare you of that pleasure. What you really need to take away from this is that the key to success is valuing what others undervalue. While people love home runs or a guy who had a hot year or a prospect with a lot of buzz, chances are you’re going to have to draft them too high to get them because everyone else wants them. Indeed, sometimes the best bet isn’t always the sexiest pick in fantasy baseball because while it’s great to find that diamond in the rough, if you want to win you need to find reliable contributors, and you find that out through some legwork. I don’t guarantee that following my reasoning will win you the league trophy, but at the very least you’ll be in a position to win and that’s a lot more than what you can say in a crapshoot like fantasy football.
