New York Nine

A Pure Baseball Trade

2012-01-16T09:38:00.000-08:00

Well I can’t say I expected this to happen. Last Friday night, while most of us (myself included) were out enjoying the start of the weekend, Yankees GM Brian Cashman and Seattle Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik were busy pulling off one of the biggest and most surprising trades of the offseason, with the Yankees dealing uber-prospect catcher/DH Jesus Montero and pitcher Hector Noesi for the hard throwing 23 year old Michael Pineda and 19 year old pitcher Jose Campos. On its face, this trade stands out from most because it’s a clear ‘pure baseball trade;’ motivated by comparative needs of the teams, both GM parted with some of the best young players in the game in hopes of improving a glaring weakness of their club, but will they work? To be sure, trading young players that are long on potential but low on experience always carries a great deal of risk of not panning out, but given the relative skill set of the players involved it seems very likely that the trade could dramatically improve the fortunes of both the Yankees and Mariners in both the long and short term.

At least for most Yankee fans, the name most recognizable involved in this trade is surely the much-hyped and controversial catching prospect Jesus Montero. For the past few years prospect experts and analysts alike have touted the young catcher’s skill with the bat and given this pedigree it’s not hard to see why the Mariners would be so anxious to acquire him. Indeed, coming off a year where Seattle had the worst offense in all of baseball by a wide margin, the Mariners are in dire need of a hitter in the middle of the lineup and Jesus certainly fits the bill. In his career in the minors, Jesus showed an elite bat at every level, slugging over .500 at every level (except rookie ball), getting on base at a clip of .348 or better all while hitting well over .300. To be certain, given these numbers it’s easy to see why Baseball America, ESPN’s Keith Law and virtually every other prospect expert listed him as a top three prospect for the last three years because the guy simply hits everywhere and anywhere. And in fact Jesus has shown (albeit in a limited sample) that he can mash major league pitchers too, hitting an impressive .406wOBA with four home runs this September, of which three of them were to the opposite field. This last fact bodes particularly well for Seattle due in part to their home park, Safeco Field’s dimensions, which is actually much easier to hit to right field; by being able to avoid Safeco’s rather cavernous left field, Montero looks poised to hit well despite leaving the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. Nevertheless, despite Jesus’ prodigious power and talent with the stick, there remain concerns as to where he can actually play in the field. As I have mentioned in earlier articles, Montero has been consistently given low marks for his defensive acumen as a catcher, with many scouts pointing to his lack of quickness, bad footwork, and most importantly an elongated throwing motion that makes him rather slow on the relay throw. And in truth, despite Brian Cashman’s statements to the contrary, it seems that the Yankees were not all that optimistic about his future as a catcher either, as evidenced by their usage of Jesus in the majors, catching only a handful of innings and not looking particularly good doing it. At the moment, Jack Zduriencik maintains that Jesus’ future remains at catcher, however absent a dramatic turnaround, with Justin Smoak entrenched at first base Jesus seems destined to a career as a Designated hitter. If this is the case, Jesus will quite clearly provide the Mariners with the pop they so desperately need at a very cheap price (Montero doesn’t become a free agent for six years) however his relative value will be significantly decreased if he can’t contribute in some significant way in the field.

Of course, Yankees GM Brian Cashman wouldn’t give up a prospect of Jesus’ caliber or anyone, and by all accounts it seems clear that he got bang for his buck by acquiring the 6’7 right hander Michael Pineda. Originally not supposed to even make the team last year, Pineda forced his way on after an electric spring training and did not disappoint with the major league club. Indeed, although Pineda’s 3.74ERA won’t turn any heads, Michael showed that he has the makings of an Ace due to his devastating stuff and pinpoint control. Thanks to his four seam fastball that he throws anywhere from 94 to 98MPH and a filthy slider, Pineda had the sixth best K% in baseball with 24.9% which was just tenths of a decimal less than MVP Justin Verlander; however arguably more importantly Pineda does it with great control, walking only 7.9%, giving him a K/BB ratio of 3.15. Of course, detractors will likely point to Pineda’s home and road ERA (2.92/4.40ERA) as evidence that he’s not a true Ace and moreso a product of the spacious confines of Safeco Field, however a closer look at his BABIP and left of base % demonstrates that these spits are not indicative of his true talent. Looking more closely at his home and road splits, Pineda actually had a lower FIP away from Safeco (3.26 to 3.62), a lower walk rate 7.0% to 9.1%) and a lower home run to fly ball ratio (the amount of fly balls hit that turn into home runs which was 7.8% to 10.5%) than he did at home. In truth, the reason for his superficially worse numbers away from Safeco is essentially bad luck, as evidenced by his higher BABIP (.286 to .220) as well as the percentage of runners who he left on base (64.4% to 77.5%) away from Safeco. Although there is no guarantee that these numbers will regress back to the mean, statistical analysis has shown that these splits are generally unsustainable, and as a consequence any concerns that Pineda was doing it by smoke and mirrors is just plain wrong. With a big frame and great stuff and control the Yankees appear to have finally found a worthy number two pitcher to slot behind CC Sabbathia that they so desperately needed. Of course, with any young pitcher Pineda is not without his concerns, particularly his 45% fly ball rate (one of the top five in baseball last year) which will likely result in more home runs in hitter friendly Yankee Stadium, however given the state of the Yankees rotation prior to the trade Pineda absolutely represents a dramatic improvement to a rather thin rotation. Given his age (just turning 23 this month) and his price (Pineda isn’t a free agent for five more years) it’s hard to not see this as an improvement for the Yankees in both 2012 and beyond.

The ‘winner’ of the Pineda-Montero trade remains unknown for now, but at present it seems like both of them won because they both dealt from an area of strength to improve in an area their most glaring weakness. For the Yankees, losing a homegrown player like Montero with his talent always hurts, but Yankee fans should be comforted in knowing that Mr. Cashman has compiled a ton of talented catcher prospects, including Austin Romine, JR Murphy and Gary Sanchez (Sanchez in particular has actually hit better than Montero at this stage in his career but can actually play defense) who are either ready or will be ready soon to take the mantle as Catcher of the Future. The fact of the matter is as good as Montero is and as painful it will be to watch him mash for the next decade or so, the Yankees can live without him and by adding a potential ace the team will be ultimately better. Add in Jose Campos, who at 19 already throws 97MPH and struck out 85 and walked 13 in 81 innings (also Seattle’s number five prospect) and you’ve got a chance to add two aces in the future. Conversely for Seattle, while losing a potential Ace will hurt the Mariners, Seattle already has an Ace in Felix Hernandez and has many other great pitching prospects coming down the pike that are similarly talented as Pineda is. Much like how the Yankees are with hitters, the Mariners can afford to give away a pitcher because they’re getting in return a guy who instantly becomes their most talented hitter on the team. The result of this is a trade that looks poised to make both teams better, and as a baseball fan these are the kinds of trades I love.

Padres Seeking New Direction Under GM Byrnes

2012-01-03T16:51:00.000-08:00

The San Diego Padres are one of those teams that very few people are talking about these days, and that’s probably because nobody has the faintest idea of what they’re trying to do. To be sure, the days of the Padres dominating the NL West led by Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez are now a distant memory, with both players and indeed many of their established regulars gone, leaving the team without a discernible identity or clear direction for the future. Take for instance new General Manager Mr. Byrnes’ two most recent moves, trading Staff Ace Matt Latos to the Cincinnati Reds for Yonder Alsonso, Edinson Volquez, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger, and most recently trading for soon to be free agent outfielder Carlos Quentin for Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez; trading Latos before he becomes arbitration eligible suggests the Padres are trying to keep costs down while they retool and rebuild for the future, but then why would they take on an outfielder who made $5million last year and will be a free agent after 2012? Although new General Manager Josh Byrnes’ vision for the Padres future remains unclear, what is clear is that he is seeking any which way to increase the talent of his ballclub any way possible and is unafraid to forgo convention to do it.

Beginning first with the Matt Latos trade, Padres GM Byrnes undoubtedly gave up one of the best young and cost controlled starting pitchers in the game, however he can justify that loss by the sheer volume of talent he received in return. The centerpiece of the trade is most clearly the young lefty swinging first baseman Yonder Alonso and he looks to provide some sorely needed pop in a largely punchless Padres lineup. Indeed, despite finding limited playing time last year due to the presence of reigning NL MVP Joey Votto at first base, Alonso demonstrated his exceptional skill at the plate, hitting to the tune of .330/.398/.545 with a .409 wOBA over 50 games. Of course, this is just a small sample size, but Alonso’s minor league numbers suggest that he possesses the skills to succeed at the major league level, posting a OBP under .372 only once as a minor leaguer while hitting for a high average and decent power. Nevertheless, the move has been considered curious due to San Diego’s acquisition of first baseman Anthony Rizzo last year in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, but there are reasons to suggest that Alonso’s skills are a better fit for the Padres and their home park, Petco Park, the worst hitters park in the game. In particular, Alonso has demonstrated a significantly better eye at the plate throughout his career, walking at a rate of 11% compared to Rizzo’s 9.7%, as well as a significantly lower strikeout rate (15.1% compared to Rizzo’s 20.7%). Furthermore, although Alonso has displayed decidedly less power than the lefty swinging Rizzo, an analysis of park factors by Fangraphs.com shows Rizzo’s pull-happy swing will be hurt most by Petco; whereas Rizzo almost always pulls the ball to right field, the area of Petco that is the most damaging to a hitter’s power, Alonso has consistently shown to have power to the opposite field, prompting most analysts and scouts to predict that Alonso could be quite valuable providing 40-50 doubles by utilizing left center field. Ultimately, one of these first baseman will have to be moved in a trade, however due to Yonder’s superior skill set it seems likely that Mr. Rizzo will be getting the boot and Mr. Alonso will be the Padres first baseman for the long term.

In addition to help at first base, the Reds also acquired a long term solution at the catcher position in the Matt Latos trade by acquiring the Reds 1^st round draft choice from 2010, Yasmani Grindal. Although still very young and blocked by Nick Hundley for the short term, Grindal looks to provide the Padres some sorely needed pop in the immediate future from one of the most difficult positions to get it. Still only 23, Yasmani has shown considerable prowess at the plate in his short career, hitting .333/.385/.500 in rookie ball only to quickly move up to AAA and dominate at every level with a line of .300/.401/.500 and 14 home runs between Single A, AA, and AAA. Of course, Yasmani will likely see a decline in power as he makes his way to Petco in the next few years, however his superior eye at the plate (13.3BB% career) will ensure that his value as a catcher remains high. Indeed, given the scarcity of catchers who can actually hit, Yasmani seems poised to be an invaluable asset for the Padres in the future in the field as well as at the plate. Although his value will likely not be comparable to what Matt Latos, a hard throwing righty starter with superb stuff would provide, he along with Alonso and the rest of the haul from Cincinnati arguably makes the Padres a much better team 2012 and beyond as a whole.

While the moves for Alonso and Yasmani are clearly seeking to improve the Padres in the long term, the move for Carlos Quentin is very clearly and very questionably for the short term. As stated above, Quentin, age 29, is a year away from free agency and will almost certainly be gone by the time that the Padres’ young farmhands are ready to contribute; nevertheless, given the rather limited value in consideration for Quentin, it can be argued that Byrnes was merely buying low on a hitter whose contributions he believes will be greater than that of the prospects given up. The Padres dealt two pitchers to the White Sox, right hander Simon Castro and lefty Pedro Hernandez, and while they will likely help in Chicago’s own rebuilding, neither is exactly a sure thing. In particular, Castro, 23 years old, the most highly touted prospect, has been anything but impressive recently, posting a 5.64 ERA in Triple A and didn’t look particularly good doing, striking out 94 in 115 innings but walking 34. Hernandez was better but not great either, with an 3.49 ERA and 94 strikeouts to 22 walks in 116 innings in Double A, resulting in Baseball America, the preeminent scouting magazine, to put neither of them in the Padres’ top ten prospect list even before the Latos trade. In truth, when looking at these rather unimpressive numbers it becomes clearer why Mr. Byrnes was willing to give up on both of these pitchers because of Quentin’s prodigious power, an area that San Diego clearly lacks. Although Carlos is well removed from his ridiculous 2008 season where he posted a .414wOBA due to a fluky increase in both batting average and on-base, Quentin has showed himself to be a reliable source of right handed power posting slugging percentages in the high .400s ever since. And while detractors will point to Petco’s cavernous outfield to suggest that Carlos’ power will disappear, in fact for right handed hitters Petco is almost neutral for right handed hitters with a park factor of 95 (courtesy of Stat Corner, a score of 100 is considered a completely neutral park to both hitters and pitchers, compared to a park factor of 59 for lefties). Thus, despite his flaws as a player, which include his poor batting eye and his mediocre to horrible fielding (he had a 1.7 UZR/150 in 2011 but averaged -31 UZR/150 for his career) Quentin provides the Padres with value (2.6WAR last year) to help the team compete in the short term, while simultaneously not hurting the team’s long term goals by holding onto their best talent on the farm.

Although neither of these moves will likely make the Padres a contender in 2012 or possibly even 2013, they are undoubtedly a more complete organization in both the short and long term. While neither of these moves when taken as a whole exhibit a true direction for the organization, it is sufficient to say that the Padres under Josh Byrnes have been primarily concerned with acquiring superior value, regardless of that value is long or short. As a consequence, despite a small fan-base and a home park that no free agent would dare sign with, the Padres are clearly putting themselves in a position to compete, and given the fluctuation in performance in the rest of their division, that just might be enough to keep them in the mix for the division crown for the next few years.

The Cardinals and the Post-Pujols Era

2011-12-30T16:30:00.001-08:00

On the heels of one of the most exciting and thrilling World Series in recent memory, the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals head into the 2012 season a very different team. If you haven’t heard (but I’m sure you have) the Cardinals signature player, the man most associated with “The Cardinal Way” since Stan “The Man” Musial, Albert Pujols rejected the Cardinals’ offer and signed with the Anaheim Angels to a monstrous 10 year $254million deal. To be sure, combined with the loss of their Hall of Fame Manager Tony LaRussa, the loss of Pujols has to leave any halfway sane Cardinals fan feeling like the team is about to go down the tubes, however the reality of the situation is far less dire. While the loss of the future Hall of Famer will certainly hurt the Cardinals in the short term, the addition of new players or injured players like Carlos Beltran and Adam Wainwright will help alleviate that drop off and enable the Cardinals to not have to pay Albert big bucks as he enters his decline phase as a player.

Of all the moves the Cardinals have made this off-season, none has the potential to soften the blow of losing Albert Pujols than the signing of six-time All-Star Carlos Beltran. After a surprisingly quiet free agency for Carlos, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak signed Beltran to a 2 year/$26million dollar deal that undoubtedly has some risk, but a great deal of upside. Although missing some time to begin the year, between his stints with the Mets and Giants, Carlos displayed his keen eye at the plate and still prodigious power despite playing in some of the worst home run parks in the game, playing in 142 games and hitting to the tune of a .300/.385/.525 slash-line, with 39 doubles, 22 home runs and a .389wOBA. These numbers, although hardly Pujols-esque, are still easily among the best in the league for an outfielder and should only be improved by the move to a far more hitter-friendly park in St. Louis. Nevertheless, as any Mets fan (or Giants fan) will tell you, Carlos is not the same guy he was a few years ago. For starters, Beltran, who has always been injury prone and has some bum knees, one of which required microfracture surgery, but instead chose to undergo less evasive arthroscopic surgery and it has clearly been to his detriment. No longer a graceful runner in center field, Carlos was forced to move to right field and clearly was not the same player, posting a UZR/150 of -9.2 between his stints in New York and San Francisco, as well as a less than impressive -11.0 RngR. Entering his age 35 season, Beltran could very well see these knee problems affect his effectiveness at the plate and may turn out to be a bad signing, but the point is the risk isn’t all that great. While he is older and could very well fall off a cliff, the fact of the matter is Carlos was worth 4.7WAR last season, which comes out to about to being worth about $22million. Even if it does fall off a bit, the Cardinals are still likely to get a great deal of value from Carlos and be well worth the money over two years.

In addition to the help coming from outside the Cardinals organization, help from inside the organization in the form of Staff Ace Adam Wainwright should also significantly soften the blow of the loss of Pujols. Adam injured his elbow last spring training and was forced to miss the entirety of the 2011 season to recover from Tommy John Surgery; in the past this would cause concern that he may never regain his former ace form, however the ridiculously high success rate these days makes him a good bet to be as good as new. For certain, it is a testament to the Cardinals last year that they were able to overcome the loss of Wainwright and win the Series because he was so damn valuable to them in years prior. Indeed, in his last full season in 2010 Wainwright was an Ace in every sense of the word, tossing an impressive 230 innings to the tune of a 2.32 ERA (and a 2.86 FIP to back it up) and displaying excellent control, with 8.32K/9 and an even more impressive 3.80 K/BB ratio, which was among the top five in the senior circuit that year. Of course, like any surgery there is always an element of risk that Adam may not be the same guy he was, but again given his age (just 30) and the success rate of Tommy John (many pitchers are even better after Tommy John), it’s hard to not see Wainwright come close to his 6.1WAR from that season, which again was worth according to Fangraphs.com over $24million to the Cardinals. Between the two the Cardinals are adding potentially ten wins to their team, which although will not exactly replace what a superstar like Pujols gives a team, undoubtedly gives the team a very good chance to be in the mix come October next year.

Of course, as wonderful as these players may be for the Cardinals, neither of them are Albert Pujols; though in light of Albert’s age and uncharacteristically down year, the Cardinals may have dodged a bullet. Of course, at least in the short term it’s hard to not like the move by the Angels in signing Pujols for the simple reason is that he’s Albert Freaking Pujols, the best baseball player on the planet. While still only 32 Albert has already put together a Hall of Fame resume, accumulating 87.8WAR for his career, 445 home runs, a .328/.420/.617 slash-line, ten all star games, three MVP awards, and two gold gloves; this isn’t just a great player we’re talking about here, we’re talking about a guy on the short list of being one of the greatest of all time and arguably the best first baseman since Lou Gehrig, and he’s not even done. Nevertheless, while the Angels were smart to acquire a player of Pujols’ stature under any circumstances there are reasons for concern. For one, Albert is coming off what was easily his worst season to date, where he hit ‘only’ .299/.366/.541 with 37 home runs and 29 doubles. To be fair, these are not bad numbers by any measure, and furthermore Albert admitted the specter of his contract negotiations affected his play, however these are not numbers of an all time great that the Angels are paying for. Although most projection systems forecast a return to glory for Albert (Bill James and Fangraphs project him to have approximately a .319/.410/.585 stat line) it is entirely possible that Albert’s best days are behind him. Players like Jimmy Foxx, Mel Ott, Albert Belle and a host of others saw a steep decline after they turned 32 making it substantially likely that Albert do the same. Moreover, Albert’s contract, while fair relative to his value as a player could potentially be an albatross to the Angels in the long term. As reported by Ken Rosenthal, Albert’s contract is very back-loaded, with him getting only around $16million now and the second half getting over $30million which could very well hurt the Angels’ ability to compete if Albert isn’t Albert anymore. One can’t help but think of the example of Alex Rodriguez, who also got a ten year deal after his age 32 and has declined considerably in the four years since, and wonder if Albert will suffer a similar fate. However unlike the Cardinals who despite their rapid fans are very much a mid-market ball club, the Angels in light of their huge new TV deal and the decline of the Dodgers in the LA market can afford to make such a gamble. Given these risks it seems very likely that in a few years Cardinals fans may be very well thanking the Angels for paying Albert all that money to leave for Sunny Southern California.

Even in light of all these very rational reasons to feel better about the Cardinals long term without Albert Pujols than with him, it will still be hard for Cardinals fans to see Albert Pujols wearing a red hat with a Halo instead of a Red Bird. Players like Pujols don’t come along very often, so to see him leave in the middle of his career after so many great moments has to be disheartening. Nevertheless, given the rather astute moves Mr. Mozeliak has made to make the Post-Pujols Era not so frightening, Cardinal fans have a litany of reasons to believe that the division titles, pennants and World Series championships will not leave town with Albert. And even the Cards aren’t as good as they once were, Cardinal fans should take solace in knowing that for a decade they had the honor and privilege of seeing one of the best that ever lived play in their home town, and that’s a lot more than most baseball or indeed any sports fan can say with a straight face.

Austerity in the Bronx

2011-12-27T13:36:00.000-08:00

By all accounts, The New York Yankees in the post-Steinbrenner era has been an undeniably strange one for Yankee fans. Once the champions of the back of the sports page vying for the top the free agents or hottest trade target on the market, the past few years have seen the Yankees embracing austerity, searching for bargain basement deals and resisting the temptation to deal their highly touted prospects in order to let them practice their wares in pinstripes on the cheap. To be sure, coming off a 97 win season on the strength of surprising performances by the likes of Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, and Ivan Nova, this formula has worked well in the short term, and in turn enabled GM Brian Cashman to lower to the payroll to a somewhat reasonable $189 payroll (by Yankee standards), but will this strategy work in the years to come? The answer to this question it seems rests on the young shoulders of Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos and several others coming along the Yankee farmhand pipeline and the ability of high priced veterans like A-Rod, Jeter and Teixeria to stay healthy and live up to their contracts.

Arguably the most important piece of the puzzle for the Yankees is the continued growth and success of the 22 year old uber-prospect Jesus Montero. Blocked most of the year at both catcher and designated hitter by Russell Martin and Jorge Posada, Jesus finally got a shot in September and did not disappoint. Although limited to a mere 69 plate appearances, Montero’s potential was on display to the Yankee faithful, hitting an impressive .328/.406/.590 with four home runs, three of which went to the opposite field. Now with Jorge gone and likely retired, it seems that Jesus will finally be able to find at bats consistently next year, however questions remain regarding his defensive ability and the Yankees’ desire to have a full time DH. In truth, especially with Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez getting older and more brittle Yankee Manager Joe Girardi will likely want to give a great deal of those DH ABs to them in order to keep their legs fresh over the whole season, thereby likely limiting his ability to get 500 at bats there. And the catcher position is equally problematic for Jesus, given the fact that Russell Martin has established himself as one of the better defensive catchers in the AL whereas Jesus’ reputation as a catcher has been characterized as dubious at best. Indeed, virtually every scout from Keith Law of ESPN to John Sickels of Baseball America has seriously questioned his ability to be an effective defensive catcher due to his size and general lack of mobility behind the plate. Nevertheless, Brian Cashman has been adamant that like Jorge Posada before him, Montero can become an effective catcher with more reps and patience and has been reluctant to consider him a full time DH. If Mr. Cashman is right, Montero offers the Yankees production at the catcher position that could easily meet or exceed Posada’s production in his prime, providing the Yankees with cheap, cost-controlled 30 home run power at one of the most difficult positions on the diamond.

As important as Montero will be to the Yankees in the years to come, the success of the Yankees in 2012 largely rests on the shoulders of Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes, the young promising pitchers on the staff. Although their histories are quite different, Hughes coming up at age 20 with huge expectations while Nova a Rule-5 pick who struggled just to get on the roster, both have proved to be important contributors to the Yankees in the past two years, with Phil winning 18 games in 2010 and Ivan winning 17 despite being sent down during part of the year. Nevertheless, there are reasons for concern for both heading forward. Phil Hughes in particular has had issues staying healthy, going down for a large part of this season and even when he was healthy he was less than stellar, posting a career worst 5.70ERA, a 5.67 K/9 and not so reassuring FIP of 4.58. These numbers may be an aberration, given his huge jump in innings pitched the year before, going from 86 in 2009 to 176 in 2010 (not including the post-season), but there remain larger concerns regarding his ability to get major league hitters out effectively. Indeed, despite attempts to add a third pitch, Hughes has been largely be unable to find a put away pitch to complement his stellar fastball and curve, and as a result he has become an extreme fly ball pitcher with an astounding 44.8% FB rate last year (worst in the MLB last year). This inability to get ground ball outs, particularly in light of his home stadium, Yankee Stadium, a notorious home run haven, makes the former phenom decidedly not a sure bet to return to form.

Conversely, for Ivan Nova, the young righty hopes to avoid a similar sophomore slump to that of Hughes despite some rather unimpressive peripheral stats. Indeed, although possessing an impressive fastball and an improving slider, Ivan has had trouble striking guys out at a level comparable to top flight starters in the league, posting a rather pedestrian 5.33K/9 and a downright problematic 3.10BB/9. Of course, it would be unfair to say that these numbers are representative of his actual success, as Nova’s ERA and FIP both steadily declined each month, posting a 3.82ERA and 3.20FIP in his final month of the season, making him easily the Yankees second most reliable starter down the stretch, but it is hard to ignore the healthy amount of luck Ivan got during those months, holding hitters to a BABIP of .283 and leaving base runners stranded on base at a truly unsustainable level of 73.2%. All of these statistics and more make Ivan a surer bet than Hughes, but still not quite a pitcher whom you can put down in ink as a true number two pitcher behind CC Sabbathia. Indeed, it is certainly possible that Nova keeps up his good fortune, but like Hughes the only way to ensure future success is development of a third and equally effective pitch.

In another era in Yankee history, these young and unproven players would likely not be relied on so heavily to produce in pinstripes, however it seems that the rather onerous contracts of some of New York’s veteran stars have forced Mr. Cashman to pinch some pennies. Indeed, thanks to contracts given out to more established stars like Alex Rodriguez (making $30million a year), Mark Texieria ($23million per year) Cashman has had to fight hard to keep the Yankees under the luxury tax threshold while still remaining competitive. The only problem it seems is that these highly salaried stars have not lived up to their rather weighty contracts in the past two years. Particularly for Texieria the decline has been quite rapid and damaging, going from hitting a stellar .292/.383/.565 in 2009 to last year only managing a rather pedestrian .248/.341/.494; these numbers may be fine for a first baseman on a mid-market team, however when you’re paying over $20million to the guy, you’re not exactly getting a lot of bang for your buck. Certainly, many will point to Texieria’s home run totals, of which he has kept constant, hitting 39 dingers this year, the same as his 2009 season, however it seems that the power has come at the expense of his formerly keen batting eye and ability to hit to all fields. In fact, Mark has admitted as much that he became too enamored by the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, but mere awareness of the problem won’t be enough for Mark to regain his form. Time and time again this postseason Texieria looked hapless at the plate, swinging wildly at bad pitches by the Tigers staff, and in order for New York to overcome the Rangers, Tigers, Red Sox and more of the league these tendencies must come to an end.

Finally, I would be remiss if I did not discuss Alex Rodriguez and his rather precipitous decline because of the apparent damage it has done to the overall strength of the Yankee lineup. Now entering his age 37 season, the days of Alex’s MVP runs with 54 home runs and stellar defense are clearly behind him, and along with it his famous durability. Indeed, after never having played less than 125 games his entire career, Alex couldn’t even break the 100 game mark in 2011 due to nagging hip issues, and as a result his overall numbers saw a sharp regression to the mean. Although Alex was able to still get on base at a healthy rate of .362, Rodriguez saw a sharp decline in batting average and power (.277 and .461 respectively, the first time he posting a slugging percentage lower than .500 since 1998!) resulting in only 16 home runs. Of course, at Alex’s age in the post-steroid era (Ryan Braun notwithstanding) a regression is expected, but with six years left on his monstrous $300million dollar deal a decline so sharp so early is really hurting the Yankees’ ability to compete. Even more than Texieria, the Yankees need Alex to come somewhere near his former levels of production at the plate in order to provide protection for the new big bats of the Yankee lineup in Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson.

To be sure, the notion of austerity for the Yankees is undoubtedly quite different than that of the Kansas Cities and Pittsburghs of the world, but it’s clearly a departure from business as usual in the Bronx. Whereas in past years I would have expected Cashman to make a big bid on Japanese pitching phenom Yu Darvish, instead the Yankees weren’t even in the same stratosphere as the bids by former Bronx punching bags Texas and Toronto. This is not to say that the Yankees will not be able to compete with the new big spenders for the pennant year in and year out in the future, but it is clear that now more than ever, the Yankees must find ways to spend money wisely. As any halfway knowledgeable Yankee fan will tell you, big spending will not necessarily ensure success and in fact (thanks for nothing Carl Pavano, Jared Wright etc etc), as in the cases of Alex Rodriguez and Texieria presently, big spending now can often hamstring a team from making the team better due to the financial burden of a big time deal. Luckily for New York, in Brian Cashman the Yankees are fortunate enough to have one of the most adept and competent General Managers in the game, one who does not necessarily get the same fan-fare of Theo Epstein or Andrew Friedman, but who has the record and the rings to show that he knows a thing or two about putting a baseball team together. More than any one asset, Cashman is the key to success for the Yankees in the future to find ways to win without the bottomless wallet of the late George M. Steinbrenner.

Marlins Spend Big, Risk Bigger

2011-12-26T23:23:00.000-08:00

Since their inception in 1993 the Florida (now Miami) Marlins have never been an organization that has been content to abide by the conventional wisdom of baseball. Whereas many much older and more established franchises are content to wait patiently to develop prospects and cultivate a fan base to increase revenues and then in turn raise spending, the Marlins under owner Jeffery Loria, despite a laughably small fan base, have eschewed long term thinking and gone about trying to win now and worrying about the consequences later. Twice now since its inception the Marlins have staggeringly reached the mountaintop of baseball, in 1997 and 2003 respectively, only to quickly dissemble these teams in wholesale fire-sales, leaving the franchise barren of talent for years to come. Now on the precipice of opening a new ballpark in Miami (with some of the worst uniforms ever to hit major league sports) it seems Mr. Loria and the Marlins have forgone the old formula and engaged on a spending spree, going after and getting many of the best free agents available, and now seem poised to make their presence felt in the NL East. Nevertheless, given the recent developments of an ongoing SEC investigation due to a rather fishy stadium deal as well as questions regarding their ability to draw fans, questions remain as to whether Mr. Loria’s big bets will work, both on the balance sheet and on the ball field.

Arguably the most dramatic and potentially impactful change the Marlins made this year was the signing of former Met favorite, shortstop Jose Reyes. Coming off the heels of a fantastic season where he hit .337/.384/.493 with 39 steals and a league leading 16 triples, Miami stole Reyes away from their NL East rival with a huge 6 year $106million dollar deal. By all accounts, the Marlins acquired a game-changing player at the shortstop position, a wizard on the basepaths with 370 career steals, an above average defender at one of the most demanding defensive positions, accumulating a 2.1+ UZR/150 over his career, and most importantly a true ‘sparkplug’ of a hitter, getting on base and with power to the tune of a .368wOBA last year. Moreover, despite his reputation as being injury prone, a closer look at his games played shows that Reyes has only had one season where he played less than a 125 games in a season since he became a full-time starter, making him not only valuable but durable as well, despite the rigors of the shortstop position. The only problem is the Marlins already had a game-changing shortstop in Hanley Ramirez who since the Reyes signing has been quite clear that his has no intention of moving off his position for a player that has been arguably been his inferior over his career (.346wOBA Reyes career - .385wOBA Ramirez career). Nevertheless, despite Hanley’s misgivings about the move and potential concerns about him ‘getting along’ with Jose it’s hard to not see this as a huge upgrade, essentially replacing Emilo Bonafacio’s 3.3WAR last year on the infield for Reyes’ 6.4. Those wins, in all likelihood, will mean a lot in a tight NL East race.

From here, the Marlins sought to upgrade their rotation, and after striking out on top pitching free agent C.J. Wilson, the Marlins ‘settled’ on the more accomplished and more cost effective lefty Mark Buehrle for four years and $58million. At first glance when comparing Wilson and Buehrle, given their raw stuff and recent success (Wilson has been the Rangers’ top starter for the last two years while Buehrle has gone unnoticed on several bad White Sox teams) it would seem that Miami really lost out, however a careful look at Mark’s body of work shows that he has been one of the most durable and reliable starters in the past decade. Indeed, aside from throwing a no hitter and a perfect game in the last few years Buehrle has been the definition of a workhorse, throwing over 205 innings every year since 2002 and more importantly throwing quality innings. In fact, while a cursory look at Buehrle’s statistics might scare away most teams with his 4.78ERA, his Fielding Independent Pitching Data or FIP was 3.98 which is in fact consistent with his entire career. This statistic is more impressive when one considers that Mark has had some of the worst defenses in the league playing behind him in recent years (Chicago has been in the bottom five in UZR in the last three years) in addition to pitching half of his games at U.S. Cellular, which has been consistently rated as one of the biggest home run launching pads in baseball. In short, with his quick delivery to the plate and his ability to throw strikes consistently Buehrle has been one of the most underrated and most reliable starters in the game, and given the going rate for top flight starting pitching on the open market $58million is a downright steal. Adding Mark to an already promising rotation of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez, it’s not hard to see the Marlins competing with the class of the senior circuit.

Finally, in addition to signing one of the best position players and starting pitchers, the Marlins also snagged one of the best closers on the market in Heath Bell. Signing for a relatively reasonable price of 3 years $29million (especially compared to the $50million the Phillies gave Jonathan Papelbon) the Marlins seem to have cemented their bullpen with one of the most consistent closers pitching today. Indeed, since taking over the closer role in San Diego from Trevor Hoffmann, Bell has been among the tops in saves leaders, accumulating 132 saves in three years, and doing it in dominating fashion, with an ERA of 3.05 and an FIP of 2.55. And even though this past year saw Bell’s strikeout numbers drop considerably from 11.09K/9 to 7.32K/9, given his age and consistent success most analysts are confident that these numbers are aberrational, as both Bill James and Fangraphs.com project those numbers to be around 9 K/9 next year. Although closers are traditionally more volatile than other positions and his recent decline are reasons for concern, it again is difficult to argue that Bell does not represent an upgrade and some badly needed consistency in the Marlins bullpen, especially considering that their last closer, Leo Nunez, turned out to be using a fake name and passport and may possibly lose his opportunity to play in the bigs again.

In spite of these additions to the Marlins, which as stated above are undoubtedly significant, there are reasons for concern. For starters, reports by FOX’s Ken Rosenthal and others have suggested that these big deals are heavily backloaded, making them potential albatrosses for the organization if the deals don’t work and don’t result in more success in the short term. Moreover, the Miami Herald has reported that the SEC is now investigating the financial records of the Marlins and demanded lists of investors and any political contributions made to Miami politicians. This last charge is particularly troublesome for the organization because it begs the question of where is all this money that the Marlins are paying out coming from? The stadium itself is being financed almost entirely by Florida taxpayers, whom foot over 80% of the entire cost, and the team itself is among the league’s lowest in both game attendance and revenue. How could a team who can barely get 10,000 people show up to their games pay out hundreds of millions of dollars to top flight free agents and not go bankrupt? The answers to these questions at the moment remain unclear, but what is clear is that the Marlins are taking some very substantial risks that might not pay off. While the team has undoubtedly improved substantially, the Marlins still must overcome a still-potent Philadelphia Phillies team, a young and emerging Atlanta Braves team, and quite possibly the Washington Nationals as well (sorry Mets fans, I feel for you guys, but it’s not looking great for the short term for you). These moves and several others may very well be the magic elixir that returns the Marlins to their not so distant past glory, however if they do not they may very well prove to be rather costly mistakes for both the Marlins and the citizens of Florida who may be paying for it.

For the Brewers, the Arrival of Young Arms Brings Hopes of Contention

2011-02-14T18:45:00.000-08:00

seriously, why don't the Brewers wear these unis everday?

Assuming that like myself most of you readers out there are from the East Coast, you probably haven’t given much thought to the Milwaukee Brewers lately (or ever for that matter). Located in a small market with an owner who’s never shown willingness to make a splashy free agent signing, the Brewers often get overlooked as far as teams that have improved themselves or who seem poised to make the next “big step.” Nevertheless, while many other teams have made the back page of the newspaper signing guys to astronomical deals, the Brewers have rather quietly gone about improving themselves this offseason in the area they need it most; pitching. Indeed, despite having such a potent lineup that produced the 4^th most runs scored in the National League (11^th overall) the Brewers undoubtedly struggled on the rubber, coming in at 14^th in pitching in the NL with a very pedestrian 4.58ERA. Clearly, if the Brewers ever hoped to make the playoffs again, especially with Prince Fielder set to hit the free agent market this coming offseason, Brewers GM Bob Melvin needed to move quickly to get some pitchers, and he clearly delivered. Through a series of trades, this offseason the Brewers were able to acquire two excellent young pitchers, Zach Grienke and Shawn Marcum, without giving up much of their major league club, and as a result the Brewers appear to be poised to enter the national spotlight and possibly make their run into October.

As the Brewers rotation stands currently, Milwaukee is slated to have their rotation lineup something like Grienke, Yovani Gallardo, Shawn Marcum, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson, and this group, no matter how you line them up, is easily ten wins or more better than their rather abysmal 2010 counterparts. Indeed, with the additions of Grienke and Marcum, the Brewers have been able to replace what was formerly a black hole of replacement-level performance to an undeniable strength of the team heading forward, but to fully appreciate how much of a step up they are we need to look first at whom they are replacing. Starting first with arguably the worst of the bunch is 32 year old lefty Dave Bush, and even a cursory look at his numbers show him to be a complete non-entity, a pitcher who provides almost exactly what you could expect from any bum in their AAA system for a much higher cost. For the 2010 season Bush tossed a respectable 174 innings last year, but only struck out 5.52 per nine innings, walked 3.36 per nine innings, while gave up an atrocious 1.45 home runs per nine innings to the tune of a 4.54ERA or a 0.1 Wins Above Replacement, 0.1! Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure Bush is a nice guy, and being a lefty he’s got at least one thing going for him, however for a contending team you simply cannot have a guy with a 4.54ERA in the National League as your third starter and expect to win any games. The same is true for the other two bums, Manny Parra and Chris Capuano who put up almost equally horrible numbers. For Parra, who tossed the majority of the two at 122 innings pitched, Manny showed signs of talent by being able to strike out guys at a much more acceptable rate at 9.52 per nine, however he also walked an unacceptable 4.65 per nine and coughed up almost as many long balls as Bush, at 1.33 per nine. These numbers, along with his 5.02ERA and equally embarrassing 0.4WAR, is fine if he’s clearly the worst pitcher on the staff, but between Bush as we have seen and Capuano, it’s a neck and neck race. Hampered by injury issues Chris was limited to only 66 innings, however he was actually the most effective of the bunch with a 3.95ERA and 0.5WAR in that time, but again he also fell prey to the longball at a rate of 1.23 per nine as well. All and all, If you add up this sorry trio of lefties you get one measly Win Above Replacement for nearly 400 innings in a season; this sort of output may sound like a dream come true for the Pirates, but for a team with two talented young All-Stars like Ryan Braun and Fielder, production like this simply is not acceptable.

Now I don’t mean to impugn the good names of these three pitchers, but when compared with the production of the two pitchers who will be replacing them it’s very easy to fall into it because they’re just so much better. Starting first with Grienke, winner of the 2009 Cy Young and still only 27, let’s first take a look at his ridiculous numbers that year to give an idea of what this guy is capable of. In 229 innings, the precocious right hander struck out a tidy 9.5 per nine, walked only 2, and gave up the longball infrequently at a rate of .4 per nine, giving him a 2.16ERA in the American League. Truly, Grienke’s 2009 season, along with his 9.4 Wins Above Replacement, was one for the ages, and in fact a close look at his 2010 season shows him to be not that far off from those numbers. Indeed, in 2010 Grienke threw almost the same amount of innings and gave up the same amount of walks and home runs as he did before, but Zach saw a decline in his strikeout rates to 7.4 per nine and his WAR to 5.2. To be sure, such a precipitous decline in strikeouts is disconcerting and its possible Zach may never reach those heights again, however by moving to the more pitcher-friendly National League the odds of that happening are slim. In truth, virtually every projection system has Grienke’s numbers bouncing back up again, including Marcel Projections and Bill James who both have his K per nine back to 8 or above, and along with a big spike in his WAR to back to around seven wins. In short, just by adding Grienke alone the Brewers will have made up the value of the trio of lefties and a lot more, and that’s only the half of it.

In addition, the Brewers also traded for the 28 year old righty Shawn Marcum for their top prospect Brett Lawrie, and again it seems clear that the Brewers made themselves better immediately. After having Tommy John surgery in 2008, Marcum appeared to come back strong this year and with another year of recovery appears to be poised to be even better moving away from the tough AL East. Pitching 195 innings last year, Marcum struck out 7.6 per nine and only walked 1.98 per nine during that span, giving up 1.1 home runs, resulting in a 3.64 ERA in the toughest division in baseball; not too shabby. Like Grienke, I also expect Marcum to benefit enormously from being in the more pitcher friendly league, which should only boost his already expanding value that netted him 3.5WAR last year while really still recovering from major surgery. The combination of those two factors could easily see Marcum’s value go up by a win or more next year, making both him and Grienke formidable opponents for the rest of the NL Central.

Along with the young fireballer Yovani Gallardo (9.73 K/9, 3.84ERA 4.6WAR), Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson, it’s easy to see the Brewers going from a 77 win team from last year to a possibly 87 win team or more and competing for the NL Central Title. Although the Brewers undoubtedly gave up a lot of talented prospects to do it, and with teams like the defending champion Reds and the perennial contender Cardinals will undoubtedly make life difficult for them all year long, it is clear that these moves have turned the Brewers from an afterthought to a tough day at the ballpark because both Grienke and Marcum are young and cost controlled for the next handful of years. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, with arguably their best player leaving for free agency next year, this window may be smaller than hoped, but as San Francisco showed this past season great starting pitching and a little bit of hitting is more than enough to get you far into the postseason and beyond.

Just a note, with baseball season starting I’m going to try to be posting more (as well as possibly a guest post or two in there), but of course that’s all contingent on how much time I have with class and how much I can get myself to write when I’m not in class. Thanks again for reading.

Why the Rockies Should Trade for Michael Young

2011-02-09T14:56:00.001-08:00

Much has been made the last few weeks and months about Michael Young, his value, and whether he will be traded before the start of the season among baseball circles. For those who are not familiar, Young, the incumbent third baseman for the AL Champion Texas Rangers has been in flux since the signing of Adrian Beltre for five years $96million (the merits of this contract are dubious at best, but that’s for another day) to play the hot corner. This is not the first time that the Rangers have made Young change his position for a superior player, having happened with the signing of Alex Rodriguez in 2000 when Young was moved to second, only to be moved to shortstop after they traded for Alfonso Soriano in 2004, and finally to third base before the 2009 season to make room for the highly touted shortstop prospect Elvis Andrus; all the same, it seems that this move has been all that Young could bear, and now he is demanding a trade from the Rangers to either the Cardinals, Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rockies, Dodgers, Angels, and the Padres (according to sources). To be sure, for many teams the prospect of acquiring a six time All Star and Gold Glover to their teams is an exciting one, however there are financial and baseball concerns that make it unclear as to whether he’s “worth” it. Indeed, at age 33 Young is not a young player by any stretch and to make matters worse he’s owned $48 million over the next three years, which isn’t exactly a bargain. Nevertheless, it seems clear when compared to their in-house alternatives Michael Young would undoubtedly serve as a significant upgrade for several teams, notably the Colorado Rockies, provided they’re willing to pony up and take the good along with the bad.

In many respects, Michael Young is the kind of ballplayer any team would love to have on their team. A hard-working, team first guy, Young has been remarkably durable during his career, having played in at least 155 games every year, except for 2009 when he played 135; and when he’s been out there Young has done nothing but hit. Indeed, since coming into the league in 2000, Young has had 1,848 hits, ranking 30^th among active players, and amassed five 200 hit seasons, and it’s not hard to see why. For anyone who has seen Michael play more than a few times, it becomes clear that Young is among the best at squaring up the ball on the bat, and his career line drive percentage of 24.1% (compared that to another great “pure” hitter Joe Mauer who’s line drive percentage is only 22.1%) shows that his reputation as a great pure hitter is clearly deserving. These attributes, as well as his well-documented humility (evidently he’s called the Patron Saint of Sports Sacrifice by local sportswriters for his willingness to move positions so readily) Young has endeared himself to the media and fans alike as a true gamer and competitor, much deservingly earning the tile of Face of the Franchise of the Texas Rangers.

Clearly, Michael Young has done a great deal in his time as a major leaguer to endear himself to baseball fans everywhere, however from a statistical perspective there is a lot to suggest that Michael is entering a decline phase from which he will likely not return to his All-Star form. Indeed, in 2010 Young had arguably one of his worst seasons to date, hitting only .284/.330/.444, a stark contrast to his 2009 season when he hit .322/.374/.518, and a closer look at the numbers makes it clear that those numbers are a bit inflated. Looking at his home/road splits, Young has severely missed the hitter friendly confines of Arlington Park, with a rather measly .753 OPS and 84 OPS+ on the road [note; 100 OPS+ is considered the baseline average replacement-level player] compared to his .859 OPS and 116 OPS+ at home. On the other side of the diamond, Young has never been a great defender, but the numbers also show he’s slipped considerably with the glove as well, compiling a -5.8 UZR per 150 games at third base last year, down from -4.2 UZR/150 last year. Even his numbers at other positions like shortstop and second base are no better, averaging a -10.4 UZR at short and a rather pedestrian -.5 at second respectively. All in all, these numbers strongly suggest that Michael Young is a guy whose best days might be possibly behind him. Sure it’s entirely possible that he regains his form of being a 200 hits a year guy, but at $16million a year that is a gamble that most teams are not financially able to take.

Now, all that negative stuff said about Michael Young, here’s why I think that this is a gamble for at least one team, the Rockies. For those who weren’t following or don’t care to remember, the Rockies fell short of the postseason last year after petering out in October, and in all likelihood part of that decline came from the lack of a viable candidate at second base. Indeed, for the season a collection of such notable bums like Clint Barmes, Jonathan Herrera, Eric Young Jr., and Melvin Mora totaled an absolutely horrific stat line of .246 batting average, six home runs and 63 RBIs while playing second base, and in truth things aren’t looking any better next season. Since last year the incumbent Barmes was shipped off to Houston, leaving only Eric Young Jr., as the de-facto second baseman and his numbers are even worse at .244/.312/.285, with little coming down the pipeline that is better. To be sure, a team that with star power like Troy Tulowitski and Carlos Gonzalez that hopes to contend the Rockies simply cannot afford to have such a gaping hole in their lineup, which is why trading for a guy like Michael Young makes a whole lot of sense. Now granted, Young has not played second base regularly for some time and in truth considering his numbers at short and third chances are he’ll be crappy with the glove, but his bat more than makes up for it. Indeed, even if he duplicates his current batting line, Young’s OPS is a solid .200 points higher than any other option they have internally and in fact Young’s career low batting average to balls in play (.311 to .350) suggests that he will be even better in Colorado. Add in the fact that Young is moving to the National League West and Coors Field, where the pitchers aren’t as good and Coors is arguably the only better hitters park than Arlington, Young could easily go back to being a 4 Wins Above Replacement Player in no time and dare I say it, the difference between Colorado contending and watching the playoffs from home.

Of course, I am not privy to Colorado’s finances so I don’t know if they could swing this deal, but the numbers clearly show that Young would undeniably represent a serious upgrade for the Rockies. Although his glove is undoubtedly suspect, and he may never have 200 hits in a season, the fact remains that Michael Young is still a very good ballplayer who can help a club in need. Unfortunately for Texas, there is no longer a space for him on the team and in all likelihood they will have to pay to send him away, but for whichever team takes a chance on him will be getting a consummate professional and a pure hitter for much less than what he’s really worth.

So Long, Andy

2011-02-03T18:13:00.000-08:00

The 2010-11 offseason for the New York Yankees has been to say the least, frustrating. From the tenuous Derek Jeter contract negotiations that incited so much argument amongst the parties involved and the fans, to losing out on Cliff Lee after offering more money and more years than the Phillies, to signing “reclamation project” pitchers like Bartolo Colon, and now the final nail in the coffin, the great Andy Pettitte has announced his retirement, it’s not exactly been a great time for the Yanks. To be sure, by all objective measures the Yankees are still in a great position to at least compete for a division title coming off a 95 win season, and their failures pale in comparison to say the Mets and their financial woes or the countless other small market teams who are resigned to being cellar dwellers another year, but this isn’t just any team, this is the Yankees, and the Yankees are supposed to compete. Now for pretty much any other team, those kinds of expectations are crazy, but especially for Yankee fans my age that’s the only reality we know. To put the Yankees dominance in perspective, just this last week a 42 year old relief pitcher named Russ Springer retired this last week after 18 seasons in the big leagues. The significance? That same relief pitcher was briefly on the 1992 New York Yankees in his rookie season, the last season the Yankees didn’t go at least .500, and Russ is the last active player to have played on a sub-.500 Yankee team. Think about that, there isn’t a player in the league who can say he’s been on a losing Yankee team, how did the Yankees accomplish such a feat? What have the Yankees done to defy the odds for so long and find ways to produce a winning product for a generation? The detractors out there will point to the Yankees’ unparalled resources to their success, but in truth much of the answer to this question lies with the contributions of Andy Pettitte. Although Andy would not actually start pitching until 1995, Andy his 16 seasons in the big leagues was a big reason why the Yankees have been so successful for all these years, and task of filling his shoes will be more challenging than we know.

If one were to look at Andy Pettitte simply by his numbers it can be difficult to truly encapsulate his value to the Yankees (and the Astros for three years) because by in large his statistics aren’t that fantastic. Indeed, in sixteen seasons, Andy complied 240 wins, a 3.88 ERA, 2,251 strikeouts to 962 walks (coming out to a 2.34 K/BB ratio) in the regular season, and none of those numbers really scream “Hall of Famer.” Even his much lauded postseason resume, where he holds the record for most postseason wins at 19, Andy’s numbers are really not as impressive when you consider the fact that he benefitted from being on the Yankees during a run they were always in the playoffs, as well as the introduction of the wild card in 1995. What’s more, his numbers for the postseason are pretty much in line with his career numbers with a 3.83ERA and a 2.40 K/BB ratio, so even on the biggest stage he’s had his ups and downs too. But in truth conventional statistics don’t really speak to Andy Pettitte’s greatness and why he was one of my favorite players. Emma Span at BronxBanterblog.com I think put it best today saying;

Even more so in his later years, when he relied less on stuff and more on control and, for lack of a better phrase, know-how. The stat-head in me hates using wishy washy phrases like that — he had grit! he was gutty! — but like I said, when it comes to Pettitte I really can’t help myself.

Much like Emma, I too hate having to rely on baseball clichés when talking about Andy, but there’s really no other way to describe how he did it. What I mean by that becomes clearer when you look at Andy’s seasons one by one, even his excellent ones, which shows that even though he didn’t blow anybody away, and he wasn’t exactly Greg Maddux with his control, at the end of the day Andy just got it done. Take for instance Andy’s 1996 season, where he was arguably the best pitcher on the team as a 21 year old and he complied a record of 21-8 to the tune of a 3.87ERA, but he gave up 229 hits in 221 innings, only struck out 162 while walking 72, and he gave up 23 home runs, 23! Keep in mind this is arguably Andy’s best season, and even then no one would confuse him for Sandy Koufax, but it didn’t matter because he won. I remember watching Andy that season as a fourth grader and just being amazed at this guy and how he did what he had to do to win games for the Yankees, and he kept doing it year after year. Whether it be the World Series, a big weekend at Boston, or even a forgettable Monday night game against Baltimore, Andy has always been a guy you felt like you had a chance to win with when he’s on the mound, and that’s more than you can say about most.

It’s hard to be angry at Pettitte for deciding that he had enough after sixteen seasons, but the selfish fan in me wishes he could’ve given us just a little more because I loved watching him so much. Even when he left town for Houston, or when he admitted to having used Human Growth Hormone, myself and the rest of Yankee fans always forgave him immediately because he was always seemed so gracious, so down to earth, and most of all a winner (I’m just full of baseball clichés today, Pettitte brings the worst out of me). I remember a story a friend told me about the 2009 World Series before the sixth and series clinching game, and he and his buddies were tailgating outside before the game. As they’re sitting in the Yankee Stadium parking lot they see Andy drive by and he saw them all freaking out cheering for him at the top of their lungs, and what does he do? He gets out fired up as hell and starts giving them high-fives telling them he’s going to “fuck shit up” and win this game; that’s the kind of guy his is. What made me love watching Andy so much was that even when he wasn’t feeling it or was getting knocked around a little he just seemed to want it more than the other guy, and when it mattered most in the big spots he wanted the ball and was going to give everything he’s got to beat the other man. Maybe that doesn’t make him a Hall of Famer, and maybe the less Yankee-friendly statheads will roll their collective eyes at my anecdotal evidence, but that’s enough for me because that’s all I can ask for as a fan. Thanks Andy.

The Jeter Post

2010-12-08T09:59:00.000-08:00

I don’t claim to speak for anyone else, but at least for me reading and hearing about the Derek Jeter contract negotiations was a rather unpleasant one as a Yankee fan. Of course, all the verbal jousting by both sides is over now and next season will be sooner than we know it and we’ll be talking about baseball again, but I couldn’t help that feel that this moment in time in the history of Derek Jeter as a player, and myself and my own baseball viewing experience has changed ever so slightly. I’m being a bit dramatic, but in truth the process that has occurred during Jeter’s first foray in the free agent market has undoubtedly changed him as a player and the public’s perception of him as evidenced by his remarks to the media yesterday.

Let me give you a little background to my theory as to why it has changed by framing the change within my own take on Derek and what makes his public image so highly regarded. In truth, Derek has always been the kind of athlete that broadcasters and talking heads on sports shows love to gush about because he’s this sort of platonic form of an athlete. By that I mean Derek seemed so perfect and unaffected; on the field he has exuded excellence and been the consummate winner and off the field he said and did all the right things, as far as we knew, and this was by design. Unlike so many athletes today who saturate our lives, Derek has always strove to be the guy who’s a boring quote. Indeed, Derek for the most par has never said anything controversial or did anything scandalous, save for maybe being spotted with a starlet or two on his arm, and because of that Jeter has always been the guy people love to put on a pedestal and marvel at what a great man he is, but what do we truly know about Derek Jeter the Man? Indeed, Derek has always guarded his privacy and his private life carefully, never giving away anything about what makes him tick or what it’s like to be Derek Jeter, and because of it we have been left to fill in the blanks on what kind of guy he is, but I think these negotiations have revealed the veneer ever so slightly. In fact, I think what these negotiations have showed is that like so many other athletes before him, what has made Derek so great all these years, is an unflappable belief in himself and unquenching desire to strive to be the best. This belief in his own excellence has helped propel Derek to the player he has become, but I also believe this is what has made this contract negotiation so contentious.

Out of the Jeter camp we kept hearing about he was “baffled” by the Yankees offer of 3 years $45million (a deal that kept him the highest paid middle infielder in the game) and how he wanted A-Rod money and A-Rod years for his next deal, and part of me wished it was just a bunch of nonsense, but I think that these expectations by Jeter and his people were a reflection of Jeter’s unwavering belief in himself as among the game’s best today. Of course, it’s entirely possible that Derek will have a big bounce-back year next year and hit .320 and put up MVP numbers like he did the year before, but I think you’d be hard pressed to say that Jeter was the same guy last season. Time after time Derek it was apparaent that couldn’t make the seemingly easy play to his right or strike out and hit into another double play in a big situation (he lead all of baseball in outs) and it all added up to his worst year at the age of 36; its possible he improves, but at that age the chances are getting slimmer. And yet despite this apparent decline it is clear Derek and his camp saw this as a blip on the screen, an aberration that will be quickly fixed next year in no time, and as a result he should be continued to be paid like one of the game’s best when he clearly is not. Certainly, as a professional athlete you need to be confident in yourself in order to achieve greatness, but at what point does pride because foolishness?

I bring all this up because I just saw Derek being interview by Sweeny Murti on the MLB Network (who knew he was on there? Another nice pickup for a great network) just now and I realized that much of this is true about Derek, but I can’t say I feel the same way about it. As you can imagine from what I said above I’ve been strongly on management’s side on this negotiations and thought that the original deal was a very reasonable deal for a 36 year old shortstop, if not overly generous, but when he spoke I couldn’t help but feel bad about it. I’m sure it helped that Derek was talking to Murti, a guy who’s been the WFAN’s Yankee beat guy forever, but what I saw in his few lines was that the veneer was almost pulled away entirely to reveal a man with a seriously bruised ego. Derek had never in his entire career had to deal with the notion that he wasn’t all that good and the realities of a business that can be harsh to players in their decline phase and I could see in his eyes how it hurt him. I realize that sounds stupid, and after all the guy did get $17million a year so he’s not exactly getting fleeced, but I saw a guy who realized he was on the other side of the hill on a place where the sun doesn’t shine quite so bright and that fact I found out bummed out me nearly as much as it did Derek. I mean this is Derek Fucking Jeter here, this is the guy I have been watching since I’ve been since freaking fifth grade, the guy who ALWAYS won and who ALWAYS got the job done when the Yankees needed him for my entire adult life, and now he’s an old man, he’s a washed up actor who hasn’t figured out that he’s not the star of the show anymore and I can’t help but be sad about that. Sure, he very well could have a solid year next year be a productive player in an all-star lineup where he just needs to help carry the load, but it won’t be the same. No, things may look the same, and Derek will go out there take his spot in leadoff and take the field like he did for all those other seasons, but that Derek Jeter is gone for good. I don’t expect that to change how I feel about the Yankees, but it sure will be different, for us the fans and Derek.

The Showalter Effect

2010-08-10T07:39:00.000-07:00

To anyone who’s had to endure watching a Baltimore Orioles game this year or really any of the last fourteen since their last season it is easy to see how truly terrible this team has been. Despite having a roster replete with young talented players like Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Brian Matsuz to name a few, it seemed that the team played with a sort of listlessness and hopelessness all season which has made many question why these young guys were considered so promising after all. Game after game, it seemed that the Orioles have done their best to lose ballgames every which way, whether it be bad pitching, bad fielding, or bad situational hitting, and in the process becoming the worst team in baseball. Sure, the odds were against this team playing in arguably the hardest division in baseball, but by all accounts the team has fallen short of even modest expectations of improvement or progression; it was clearly time for Baltimore management to make a change. That change came in the form of a new skipper, Buck Showalter, and it is clear early on that his presence has made a difference from the get-go. After never going better than 5-4 on a home stand the O’s have gone a surprising 6-1 since Buck’s arrival, and by all accounts have renewed the fight and the spirit of the formerly hopeless and hapless O’s. To be sure, no one is expecting this to be the beginning of a dramatic turnaround this season, but when considering Showalter’s history and philosophy all signs point to his signing to being a turning point for this franchise that will lead to bigger and better things.

When one looks at Showalter’s history as a manager it is clear from both his record and the later success his teams go onto that his presence has helped a few organizations in his time. Beginning with my Yankees in 1992, Showalter took a franchise that was floundering in doldrums of the AL East to quickly a team in the playoffs, making the wild card in 1995 with a 79-65 record. Of course, the next year Joe Torre would lead the team to its first World Series since 1978, but this was clearly Buck’s team. In the absence of Steinbrenner who was banned from the game, along with General Manager Gene Michael Buck put the pieces in place for a team that could winning immediately because of his eye on statistics;

We were looking at hitter-pitcher match-ups way back when. I was keeping them in the minor leagues and when I first started managing the Yankees you had matchups against guys and where they hit the ball. It was an advance scout doing it. Now a lot of people are taking their advance scouts off the road and doing certain things off the TV screen and whatever, but the problem with that is certain things go on in a game that you can only get from being there and from watching off the ball. I challenge guys all the time to be involved in watching off the ball, in the dugout, during batting practice, during infield, and their interaction with teammates. It paints a story for you every night if you'll just watch things other than the game itself. The use of data has evolved, but there are very few things that have come in where people go, “Wow, I've never thought about that.” And you never confuse change with a lack of respect for tradition .

By trading for guys like Paul O’Neill and drafting guys like Bernie Williams and Derek Jeter, Buck helped build the dynasty that would go on to dominate the latter part of the 1990s. The same is true of his next team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, a new franchise that he took from winning 65 games to 100 in one season. Again, ultimately the team would part ways with Buck after the 2000 season and eventually win the World Series against the Yankees, but much like his former team it was his team who won that season and played his way with his players. Clearly, his career managerial record, nearly 900 wins and an above .500 winning percentage, as well as the success of his teams following speak for themselves. Buck has firmly established himself as the right manager to help turn around floundering franchises and give them an identity and a winning attitude; such traits are precisely what Baltimore needs right now.

Of course, Buck clearly has an impact on young players helping them develop and grow, but Showalter does not rely on the force of his personality alone. Indeed, as evidenced by the quote above, Buck has distinguished himself as a manager with a keen eye for knowing what makes a team better by embracing the “Moneyball” mantra of statistics. Recently, Hardball Times unearthed several interesting statistics about Buck’s managing style that shows displays his reliance on stats and his success from them, notably his ability to put high on-base guys at the top of his order, routinely being at the top of the league in OBP in the one and two lineup slots ;

Year Team No. 1 No. 2

1992 NYY 0.328 0.328 0.329

1993 NYY 0.353 0.354 0.345

1994 NYY 0.374 0.388 0.420

1995 NYY 0.357 0.359 0.409

1998 ARI 0.314 0.340 0.306

1999 ARI 0.347 0.326 0.382

2000 ARI 0.333 0.311 0.353

2003 TEX 0.330 0.324 0.347

2004 TEX 0.329 0.354 0.349

2005 TEX 0.329 0.321 0.385

2006 TEX 0.338 0.361 0.356

To the untrained eye, this may appear to be unimportant, but it reveals Buck’s awareness to need to get guys on base in front of run producers to score runs. By putting more guys on base in front of them, Buck’s teams score more runs and in turn win more games. This stress of the virtues of patience has in turn worn off on his players and resulted in producing fourteen players whose single season home run bests under Buck, including Jim Leyritz, Steve Finley and Jay Bell; hell even Gary Matthews Jr., hit under him (although steroids probably had more to do with that). To be sure, the proof is in the numbers, and the numbers show that players have responded to his leadership and improved significantly.

History suggests that Buck will succeed in Baltimore and in truth it appears to already be happening. With six wins in seven games, three of them of the walk-off variety, the team just looks so much better, pitching well, hitting well, and playing with a renewed vigor that Baltimore hasn’t seen in some time. Of course, this is an absurdly small sample size so far and the team could very easily regress right back to the team that has become the laughingstock of the junior circuit; after all its not like he’s gone and replaced all those stiffs with actual ballplayers. Nevertheless, through the force of his personality and his highly intelligent managerial style, it seems clear that Baltimore will only improve under his tutelage and quite possibly regain some respectability to a once proud franchise.

A Tale of Two Baseball Towns (Part 2)

2010-07-16T09:32:00.001-07:00

After my experience in Baltimore last month my feelings about baseball on the beltway were undoubtedly a little disheartened. To be sure, I knew that the experience of watching baseball for any team aside from the Yankees was going to be rather different and most likely not so rosy, but the contrast to Baltimore was appalling. Any semblance of hope or excitement of the game seemed to have vanished from their sports consciousness and in its place remained a general malaise of despair. Thankfully, I am fortunate enough to live near two baseball teams in Northern Virginia and the team by the Potamac, the Washington Nationals, has presented a much brighter and hopeful glimpse of baseball fandom. As I stated before, Washington, D.C. is hardly a great baseball town because it lacks a rich history or a dedicated fanbase and the hopes of changing that were not great initially. The Senators (both incarnations) had long left town by the time the Expos moved down here, a team that has been notoriously bad and cheap, and subsequently there was very little appetite for the game. This is because by all accounts, D.C. was then and is now a fervent football town; Washingtonians love themselves some Redskins football, and regardless of how much Dan Synder screws things up and makes them a laughingstock they care about that team 365 days a year. However, a new star in the making has emerged for the Washington Nationals and has brought hope to the team and created a great deal of excitement and good feelings about our national pastime. His name is Stephen Strasburg, you may have heard of him if you’ve heard anything about sports recently, and his arrival on the big stage has transformed sports landscape here in D.C., and brought hope to a formerly hopeless sports town.

This past July 4th weekend I attended my first Nationals game, also against the Mets, where Strasburg was pitching, and my experience at the game could not have been more different than the one I had in Baltimroe. Of course, it’s really not fair to compare a game by the Orioles pitched by one of the worst starting pitchers in the game right now (Millwood has an embarrassing 5.77ERA) to the hottest pitching prospect in recent years because the expectations are so different. Truly, who gets excited about a guy pitching to a 5.77 ERA? While this may be true and the expectations are different, as time as gone on I have seen these games to both represent the zeitgeist of the team at this time; these games serve as a microcosm for where the team is heading and the pulse of the fan base. While Baltimore’s prospects have fared poorly and overpaid veterans have failed to deliver and provide no hope, in Washington the hope and excitement is palatable. From the time I got onto the Metro to the time I arrived I was surrounded by people of all ages dressed top to bottom in National Red, excited and anxious to see the great Strasburg pitch on a beautiful (if not sweltering) afternoon. Indeed, as someone who takes the metro everyday to work this summer I’m used to be crammed like a sardine everyday on my commute, but this was unprecedented; the metro stations were literally packed to the gills with fans hoping to get to the game early. By all accounts my experience here was dramatically juxtaposed to my experience in Baltimore; everyone in town knew about Strasburg and the promise he had and they were ready, these people wanted to be baseball fans and this kid was their chance.

When I finally got to the stadium the fans there did not disappoint my expectations that had been built up on my 50 minute metro ride to the Navy Yard at all. Washington also has a new stadium, Nationals Park, although it has hardly gotten the same acclaim that Camden Yards has had showered on it over the years, but for my money it did not disappoint. The actual structure of the stadium was rather unimpressive, but the buzz around the streets surrounding the stadium and in the park itself made it somewhere that you wanted to be that day. Everywhere you went the streets and hallways were packed, the bars overflowing with young and old ready for a day of baseball and sun. In the park, the large bar in the middle and indeed everywhere was full of people coming and going, giving it the feeling of a party of sorts with a few thousand of your closest friends and that feeling did not dissipate with the beginning of the game.

Despite the buildup of the game, Strasburg pitching, a FOX national broadcast with everyone’s favorite broadcast team of Joe Buck and Tim McCarver (that was sarcastic to those who couldn’t pick it up) the game itself left something to be desired. Mired in the unbelievable heat, the Great Strasburg looked uncomfortable and unsettled, battling himself and the elements as much as the Mets hitters for five innings, however this did not diminish the atmosphere of the game. While there was a loud vocal Mets minority (as Mets fans are wont to be) the Nats fans endured the heat and cheered on their Savior to gut through his outing, which he did allowing only two runs in five innings despite a number of walks and hits that were rather uncharacteristic of him. And even after his departure the majority of the fans remained, hoping to see their team break through the Mets soft bullpen, which it did finally against my least favorite reliever, Francisco Rodriguez (seriously K-Rod, you throw 88-90 now, you kind of blow, spare me the gyrations on the mound). All and all it was a big day for the Nats and Nats baseball fandom as well. Unlike the brow-beaten fans of Baltimore, the Nats fans wanted to hope and were willing to see Strasburg struggle and not lose all despair; they fought back in the end and their patience was rewarded.

Although this Nationals team has a lot of work to do before they’re really in competition with the big dogs of the Senior Circuit (their rotation after Strasburg is still iffy and their lineup has some glaring holes) but at the very least hope springs eternal for baseball in Washington D.C. Armed with Strasburg and now Bryce Harper, a prospect Sports Illustrated called the “LeBron James of Baseball,” (in regards to talent and not him being an arrogant prick like LeBron) the Nationals are laying a promising foundation of young talent that is already showing some success at the major league level. Such boundless possibilities with such talented players have made Washington yearn to have what so many other cities in America have and become a great baseball town. It remains to see whether these hopes come to fruition or if Strasburg and Harper can live up to such lofty expectations, but at the very least the groundswell of support has begun and the possibility of a better tomorrow has come into focus here in our Nation’s Capitol.

A Tale of Two Baseball Towns (Part 1)

2010-07-15T20:50:00.000-07:00

Procrastination is indeed a slippery slope. For many months I plugged along writing regularly about the game I love, but then finals come along, and then moving my mom out, and the new job, and all of sudden its July and I haven’t written in months, what happened? Well today I’m starting to fight the urge to be lazy and do nothing after I get back from work (something that I forgot how awesome it was and enjoyed completely) and start sharing some of my experiences as a New York baseball transplant by the beltway in D.C. To be sure, living in the Greatest City in the World and feeling like the center of the universe makes it easy to forget that the rest of the country doesn’t care all that much about what goes on in New York. Indeed, each city has its own unique culture and interests and in turn its own sports teams and while it may seem like everyone cares what the Yankees or Mets are doing, a lot more couldn’t give a damn. Clearly, New York is a great baseball town and has been so for decades, but other places simply don’t have the great tradition of winning or loyalty of their fan base, whether that be because baseball is new there like in the case of Washington (at least in terms of the Nationals) or because their team just blows (the Orioles) and because of that you have two very different types of baseball fans. I’ve had the good fortune of being able to visit both stadiums this summer, unintentionally both games were against the Mets, and was struck by how different each town was from New York in their feelings toward baseball and in turn got a better portrait of baseball fandom in America.

The first game I attended down in the DC area was last month I went to the Mets-Orioles game last month and suffice to say I was a little underwhelmed. I had seen countless games on television at Camden Yards and was struck by its beauty and charm. The first of the new wave of retro stadiums in 1995, Camden Yards immediately became the stadium by which all other new parks were measured against, balancing the classic style of the old ballparks with modern amenities perfectly. Unfortunately for Baltimore, from what I could tell the bloom is off the rose at Camden Yards because the charm has seemingly worn off and the fans have stopped showing up. Despite being an interleague game, the kind that Commissioner Bud Selig promised would boost attendance and revitalize the game (my feelings on this is for another column) the stadium was virtually empty, save for a few rather vocal sections of Mets fans. Of course, there were some Baltimore fans in attendance, but from the very beginning a sinking feeling of hopelessness could be felt throughout the park. And in truth who could blame these fans, fans who had endured losing seasons every year since 1996, with an owner who was constantly meddling and making bad deals and trades that turned a once proud winning franchise into the AL East’s punching bag. As someone who’s never had to endure this sort of sports misery I cannot imagine what it must be like to have to put up with such depths of ineptitude and remain loyal to your team, but I have to imagine it must be gut wrenching. And sure enough, the sinking feeling of impending doom came to fruition rather quickly, as the erstwhile “ace” of the Orioles, Kevin Millwood, got smacked around like an old shoe, making bums like the incomparable Jeff Francoeur look like Roberto Clemente, and an overall light hitting Mets team into the 1927 Yankees for eight runs in the first two innings. I could give you the gruesome details, but I’ll spare you that pain and leave the sensation of this as simply excruciating.

While the feeling of excruciation was certainly visible in Camden Yards that day was certainly very present, what truly struck me about the majority of the Orioles fans in the game and indeed all fans I encountered was the indifference. For sure, while many fans ache with each painful loss, it seems that losing has become so customary, so accepted in the town of Baltimore that any semblance of hope had vanished from even the most ardent fan’s thoughts. I felt that this apathy was most apparent when I stopped at a friend of a friend’s house walking to the game that afternoon. The guy who we visited is a lifetime Baltimore resident and a fan of baseball and the Orioles his whole life, but when we asked if he wanted to make the five minute walk from his house to the stadium he only replied “why would I go sit in the sun on a day like this and watch my team lose again?” In his defense, it was hot as hell that day, but I couldn’t fathom how a fan could see Camden Yards from his house, pay five bucks to get into a game to see a pretty decent Mets team play on a Sunday and not even consider going. If I were in his situation and I lived near Yankee Stadium I would be there every day if I had the time and this guy, a baseball fan, could care less. This is the sort of level of losing has clearly worn on the Baltimore psyche and obliterated even the most modest desire to see their team.

In the end, I left Camden Yards feeling rather disappointed and sorry for Baltimore fans. The park that I had seen on TV for so many years was seemingly gone, and it’s place a stadium with shitty cold food (I swear that pretzel was sitting there for months before I bought it) and fans who tired of waiting for next year. Of course, it’s very possible that my experience was an aberration and Baltimore fans can still conjure up hope on a good day, but it seemed that all hope had left with Cal Ripken Junior. As a Yankee fan I love having the Orioles there as our way to pad our record and players individual stats, but as a baseball fan I see nothing good from such a dire situation. Baseball can be a great game that many love, but when fans are deprived of even a glint of hope of being moderately successful its hard to blame them for saying “fuck it” and waiting for the Ravens to start. And while there is hope on the horizon with the coming of talented young players like Matt Weiters, Adam Jones and Brian Matsuz, it seems like the Orioles are going to need a lot more than some promising prospects to get fans to come out and care about a once great baseball franchise.

My experiences of Washington will be up shortly, promise.

My NL Picks

2010-04-13T18:27:00.001-07:00

I kind of forgot about doing my National League preview, and since we’re a week in now I should probably get on that. A lot has been made in the past few years about the National League being the inferior league to the American League, and while that remains true this year, I don’t think the division is as dramatic as it has been in recent years. Teams like the Phillies and the Rockies are developing great talent from within and spending some money when need be and putting together lineups and rotations that would make any junior circuit team jealous. Indeed, the easy thing to do is to point to the presence of the Designated Hitter as to why the American League has routinely done better than the Senior Circuit, but how does that explain the fact the National League routinely drubbed the AL all throughout the seventies and into the early nineties? I digress. Same deal as my American League picks, no playoff winners because the playoffs are a crapshoot, but I still try to give some analysis.

NL East

1. Phillies

2. Braves

3. Marlins

4. Mets

5. Nationals

The winner of this division was arguably the easiest for me to pick of the National League because the Phillies are just so ridiculously good. Great lineup that got a little better with the loss of Pedro Feliz for Polanco, great rotation that got even better with the World’s Best Pitcher, Roy Halladay, and a bullpen that isn’t great but good enough. The Braves, even with the loss of Javy Vazquez have a great rotation and a solid lineup that should see some improvement with the J-Hey Kid in the lineup, and a bullpen that is very underrated with the presence of Billy Wagner. The Marlins and Braves could easily have been swapped, thanks to Josh Johnson and that great lineup around Hanley Ramirez, but that bullpen is flat out garbage without a shred of talent. As for the Mets, well, sorry to say Mets fans but they kind of suck. The addition of Bay is good and a healthy Reyes will help a lot, but that rotation is just horrible after Johan, and even he’s no sure thing anymore. The Nationals will probably be better, but after last year that isn’t saying a whole lot.

NL Central

1. Cardinals

2. Reds

3. Brewers

4. Cubs

5. Pirates

6. Astros

There’s not a whole lot of good to say about this division, because after the Cardinals it’s pretty much garbage everywhere. The Cardinals with Pujols and Holliday are the class of the division in every aspect, great lineup, great top of the rotation, and a bullpen with a lot of interchangeable solid arms. The Reds I do like a bit, love Jay Bruce and some of their young guys to take a step forward and love the potential of their rotation, especially when Chapman comes up shortly because he’s been nasty. The Brewers should be better than last year with the maturation of Gallardo, a true ace, and a lineup that is as good as any in the National League with that great tandem of Fielder and Braun, but a lot of holes in the rotation and pen. The Cubs unfortunately had their shot a few years ago and now they’re just old, right handed hitter heavy, and stuck with a has-been ace in Zambrano who just looks horrible out there. As for the Pirates, it looks like their never-ending rebuilding project will show some improvements with McCutchen and Garrett Jones, but the Astros are just terrible from top to bottom; I don’t think I’d want anyone on that roster.

NL West

1. Rockies

2. Diamondbacks

3. Giants

4. Dodgers

5. Padres

The Rockies here are the class of this division by a long shot because of their superb lineup full of young talented guys, a rotation that is super deep and about to get even better as Ace Ubaldo Jiminez has a breakout year and a bullpen that is not too shabby. I like the young Diamondbacks young talent a lot as well, with a lineup that will only get better as they mature, especially Justin Upton, and a deep rotation with the additions of Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, but Brandon Webb is too much of a question mark for me right now to put them at top, although I wouldn’t be surprised if they were the wild card. I really hate the Giants lineup, especially the additions Huff and DeRosa, but any rotation with Lincecum and Cain, as well as a much improved Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez is just too good to suck. As for the Dodgers, they were division leaders last year but their rotation is just bad right now; I mean Christ, Vicente Padilla is their opening day starter, do you really want to bet on a team when that washed up has-been is your Opening Day Starter? Finally the Padres, well, at least they have Adrian Gonzalez, but they’ve got a whole lot of work to do before they’re good again.

Hurry it Up Already

2010-04-13T17:57:00.001-07:00

A lot has been made in the past week or so of Umpire Joe West’s comments about Yankees Red Sox games and for good reason. Joe like many fans and members of the baseball community have grown weary of the pace of games, particularly Yankees-Red Sox which last on average three hours and forty minutes compared to the less than three for everyone else. Now I am no fan of Joe West, particularly his irritating grandstanding and characterization of the teams as “embarrassing” and a “disgrace” but the man has a valid point. Indeed, the if you watch a Yankees-Red Sox game these days it’s downright excruciating. Of course, my agony is accentuated by the fact that I hate seeing the Yankees ever lose to the Red Sox, but the fact remains that the two teams drag everything out, and for good reason. These two teams are easily the best in baseball, with lineups full of the most potent and patient hitters, pitching rotations stuffed with the best arms, and management that is unparalleled in intelligence and wherewithal. Consequently, it is only natural that these games would last so long because every pitch and every maneuver is carefully contemplated, every decision thoughtful and purposeful. To be sure, Joe Girardi and Terry Francona are going to make sure they have the best pitcher in for each particular situation, and they’re going to make sure that speedy runner on first is checked is as much as needed to stop him from stealing; you don’t like it? Change the channel. The same goes for the players, like the hitters who are going to do everything to keep that man on the mound from getting into a rhythm even if that means stepping out of the box ten times an at-bat because they want to give themselves every opportunity they can. For certain, it’s hard to really blame these guys for doing these things because they’re doing what smart teams do; they’re taking every advantage possible to get an edge over the other team. However who you can blame for this is the people who run baseball whose job it is to ensure that the game is running at an optimal level and that abuses of the rules are checked against and stopped. Unfortunately this is not happening right now, but there are in fact several minor changes that could be made that could dramatically improve the game and save us fans from the agony of the four hour, nine inning game.

1. Limit the number of times a pitcher can throw to a base an inning – Obviously this idea would make too many pitchers or managers happy but I’m not concerned about their feelings, I’m concerned about the integrity of the game. To be sure, the practice of throwing over to first base by a pitcher is an effective method of stopping stolen bases, but it comes at the cost of making the game boring and drawn out. Indeed, how many times have you watched a game where a pitcher throws over again and again and again where you just want to say to the guy enough already, try throwing to the plate a few times why don’t you? A change like this in the rules would hardly be noticeable because pitchers aren’t totally prevented from keeping runners honest, but it also would promote base stealing, one of the more exciting plays in the game; what’s there not to like?

2. Once a batter gets into the box a timeout will not be called, barring some emergency – I was watching an old game on MLB Network a little while, the 1967 World Series I believe, and one of the most significant differences I saw was how guys never stepped out of the box. As strange as this may sound, batters got in the box and started with the at bat and they didn’t leave the box unless they were out or they got on base, what a crazy idea. No fiddling with gloves, no clapping, no walking around the batters circle, just hitting, and this struck me as something that could easily be fixed with some good policing by the umps. Hitters may not be a big fan of this rule change either, but again it’s in the interests of the game, pitchers get to pitch and the game will undoubtedly move along quicker.

3. Limit the number of mid-inning changes to one, unless that pitcher has given up more than one run – This is arguably the biggest change I’m advocating, but I think most people would like to see a whole lot less of endless mixing and matching my managers that make the last three innings go on forever. Indeed, there’s nothing more aggravating to me as a baseball fan see a manager bring in a righty reliever, and he gives up a hit, so he brings in a lefty, and he walks a guy, and then he summons another righty after that, enough already! Don’t get me wrong, I understand why managers make all these moves, ensuring they get the best matchup in for each batter, but this is an abuse of the rules that simply needs to stop. Constant posturing by managers make games, especially Yankees-Red Sox games drone on forever, with endless commercial breaks and pitcher warm-ups; it’s enough for a baseball fan want to tear his hair out. I think this rule, while not perfect, gives managers an opportunity to still get creative with their bullpen and stop from getting rocked, but keeps the end of games a manageable length of time.

In truth, these three measures may sound drastic, but I would venture a guess that most baseball fans would hardly notice the difference except for the result. Despite what some baseball purists will tell you, baseball is a constantly evolving game, changing in technique and approach to winning all the time. The guys out there playing and managing at the Major League are smart people (at least when it comes to baseball), and those people smartly try to take every advantage they can get by exploiting weaknesses in the rule book. Consequently, the rules of the game need to be revised from time to time, and with these changes, and possibly some other ones, will ensure that the game’s best interests are being served and even two great teams like the Yankees and Red Sox can possibly finish a game before midnight. I don’t know about anyone else, but I’ve got finals in a few weeks and the shorter those games are the better because I need as little distractions as I can get this time of year.

Do the Yankees have what it take to repeat?

2010-04-05T21:11:00.001-07:00

I should probably be studying for my legal research exam right now, but today is Opening Day in Major League Baseball and I would certainly be remiss if I didn’t post something today. No “real” article per se, but I figured it’s high time I give you my projected standings for each division before the season really kicks off. It’s not necessarily as scientific as say PECOTA or Marcel ratings (if you’ve never heard of those words don’t worry, you’re normal) but I have taken them in consideration, as well as my own analysis in deciding who goes where. As last year, I’m not picking who wins in the playoffs because as the last ten years or so have shown us the playoffs is a crapshoot; all you need to do is take a look at the 2007 Rockies team to see that talent is not necessarily a great indicator of playoff success. Anyways here is my take on the AL with a little analysis.

AL East

1. Red Sox

2. Yankees – Wild Card

3. Rays

4. Orioles

5. Blue Jays

If anyone is wondering, no, this isn’t a reverse jinx on the Yankees, I’m no Bill Simmons. The fact the of the matter is the Red Sox are a damn good team, they have great starting pitching, a great bullpen, excellent defense, and a lineup that maybe doesn’t have a “big bopper” like Manny was for them, but they’re deep and talented at virtually every position. The Yankees in contrast aren’t that far off, their starting pitching is damn close and their lineup is definitely better, but the questions in the bullpen, as well as the high number of older players in integral roles. While guys like Jeter and Jorge were great last year, they’re a year older and a little more susceptible to injury and decline, and that is the difference for me. As for the rest of the division, the Rays are very solid, with great defense and a good lineup, but their bullpen has a lot of questions, and while their rotation is deep, but they’re going to need big years from Garza and Shields, and neither of those guys was particularly good last year. The O’s are certainly improving, with a great young core of guys, but with the top three teams the way they are, and their starting pitching being so young and unproven its going to be a long season. The Blue Jays, well, hey you still have hockey for a few more months, right?

AL Central

1. Twins

2. White Sox

3. Tigers

4. Indians

5. Royals

Even with the loss of Joe Nathan at closer, the Twins are still the class of this division by a long shot, thanks largely to a solid but unspectacular rotation, great lineup, and solid defense. The White Sox arguably have the best rotation 1 through 5 in the division, but their bullpen is pretty horrible and their lineup, full of guys who don’t get on base like Alex Rios and Alexei Ramirez are going to run into a lot of outs. The Tigers will certainly be a competitive team in the long run thanks to the additions of Max Scherzer and Austin Jackson, but the losses of Granderson and Edwin Jackson will be sorely felt. And yet even more than these loses, the late season swoon showed that this team is a very flawed one that has a long way to go. As for the Indians and the Royals, expect them to be the punching bags for the rest of the Junior Circuit because frankly they don’t have a lot going on this year, aside from the Royals’ Zach Grienke.

AL West

1. Angels

2. Rangers

3. Mariners

4. Athletics

Believe me when I say it pains me to put the Angels here at the top of the standings because I hate them. Not only do they usually embarrass my Yankees every time they play (except for the ALCS) but sabermetrically they always seem to defy the odds. Every year they significantly outperform their expected win-loss record even though they seem to lose talented player after talented player and it pisses me off that they seem to figure it out and everyone sucks Mike Scoscia’s cock for working his magic. I digress. I love this Rangers team, loaded with young talent in the rotation and a great lineup, but they’re just not ready for prime time yet. Guys like Netfli Feliz and Derek Holland are great young pitchers, but they’re not ready to step in and be great, and as a result the Rangers will lean heavily on Rich Harden, a guy who’s never healthy, and Scott Feldman, a nice pitcher, but probably not as a good as last year. The Mariners are the media darlings this year with the addition of Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins and their “revolutionary” pitching and defense approach, but I don’t see enough pitching or hitting here to make them contenders. They have little or no power in the lineup, and the rotation after the big two is at best questionable and at worst horrible. Hell, I’m obsessed with baseball and I think I can name one other starter after Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee, and he’s not that good (Ryan Rowland-Smith); that does not bode well for them. As for the A’s, the signing of Ben Sheets is a good one, and their young rotation after him with Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill looks to get much better, but that lineup is beyond terrible, and that bullpen after Andrew Bailey is dicey.

I should have the National League up by tomorrow, but with my schedule who knows.

New York Nine's Fantasy Baseball Preview

2010-03-29T20:18:00.000-07:00

It feels like forever since I wrote a post so I figured I’d ease back into things with some quick points on fantasy baseball. Now I’m in the minority here, but I think that fantasy baseball is the best fantasy sport to play over football by a long shot (I know, real shock that I’d like something baseball-related over everything else). For one, baseball is more suited for fantasy sports because it’s more easily quantifiable. As some of my work here and the thousands of other baseball-websites will show you, the science of evaluating baseball has come a long way in the last twenty years; if you’re looking for a stat regarding some aspect of the game, chances are someone has already thought of it. As a consequence, it’s generally easier to determine if a player was a fluke or for real if you thoroughly analyze a player’s advanced numbers. Take for example Nick Swisher, who in 2008 with the White Sox was absolutely terrible, hitting only .214 and barely 20 home runs, but a closer look at the numbers show that this wasn’t an accurate evaluation of his overall talent. Indeed, Swish had a league low batting average on balls in play that kept his numbers artificially low; Nick wasn’t necessarily bad, he just was unlucky. And lo and behold, next year after being traded to the Yankees he increased his OPS+ from 92 to 129 and hit 29 home runs. In short, baseball in my opinion is more fun to play because if you’re willing to put the work in to correctly evaluate a player’s talent, absent a terrible injury bug, chances are you’re going to do pretty well. Compare that with football where there are so many variables to consider and so little comparative statistical data, it’s a crapshoot. To be sure, as someone who played football my whole life and watches the NFL every week, you’d think I’d have my finger on the pulse on who’s going to be good and bad every year, but I have no fucking clue and I usually end up at the bottom of the league, and why? Because so much is dependent on what others players do, so much is contingent upon other guys doing their job like the lineman keeping their blocks, the quarterback making a good read, the running back picking up the blitz, etc etc that even if your guy does everything right he still won’t get the points. Indeed, sometimes you’ll just get back luck even by a coaches’ scheme, where a coach will simply decide he wants to attack one particular aspect of the defense and as a result your guy doesn’t get any touches. It’s a great spot, but it’s a stupid system for fantasy that frankly isn’t even that fun if you’re winning because so much is just shit luck.

Okay, that wasn’t really a short point, but you get the idea. For me, if you really want to get the best analysis on fantasy or baseball in general you need to get Baseball Prospectus, but for those who don’t want to throw down twenty bucks for the Baseball Nerd Bible here’s some thoughts of guys who I think are overrated and underrated.

Overrated

Jason Heyward – I’ve got to get this out of the way first because I’m tired of hearing about how great the guy is for the last several weeks and it’s getting on my nerves. For those who aren’t familiar with Jason, he’s the stud prospect for the Atlanta Braves who on the strength of a monster spring is going to start the season as Atlanta’s right fielder while only twenty years old. Now if you talk to scouts and fantasy buffs alike they’ll most likely wax poetic about how great his swing is and how strong he is and how he’s destined for greatness, but the problem is right now he’s 20 and there isn’t a whole lot of recent history of 20 year olds tearing it up. Indeed, since 2000 the best statistical season of a 20 year old was Miguel Cabrera and he hit .268/.325/.468 with 12 home runs. Now this isn’t bad, but is it worth the 11^th or 12^th round pick that people are drafting him? Not really, and while he could always do better, the numbers aren’t in his favor.

Mark Reynolds – Now usually this is a guy that I’d like because he gives you home runs and steals a plenty, 44 and 24 respectively, but not at where I’m seeing him drafted with his obvious flaws. Indeed, in both Yahoo and ESPN.com drafts he’s in the top 20 of players to be drafted on average and Reynolds has too many holes to be worth a pick that high. For those who don’t know, Reynolds has the record for strikeouts in a season TWICE, obliterating his record from 2008 of 204 with an astounding 223 last year. Usually I don’t mind a guy with a lot strikeouts, but someone who has that much trouble putting the ball in play who also doesn’t have a real high OBP of .349, there’s no way I’m going near the guy because those numbers aren’t sustainable with that many whiffs.

Underrated

Billy Butler – Maybe I overestimated the league I was in yesterday, but when someone said “who’s Billy Butler?” I was a little disappointed because this guy is a can’t miss player. If you looked at his standard peripherals you wouldn’t be that impressed, hitting .301 with 21 home runs, but what is so crazy is that in addition to those 21 home runs he hit 51 doubles while only 22. For those who don’t know, there haven’t been a whole lot of players to do that, and all of them are pretty damn good if not great, including Hank Greenberg, A-Rod, and Pujols, all Hall of Famers or soon to be, and Miguel Cabrera, who’s no slouch himself. To be sure, this is elite company, and yet he’s still getting “who’s Billy Butler?” Do yourself a favor and draft him, he’s going late and no one knows how good this guy is.

Denard Span – Everyone who I’ve talked to about fantasy baseball in the last two weeks is probably tired of hearing this guy’s name again, but Denard Span in my opinion is a fantasy stud. Ranked outside of the top 100 in most leagues because of his lack of power, Span now the starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter for the Twins and is poised for a big season. Coming off a year where he hit in pretty much every spot in the lineup, Span had a hell of a year for a leadoff hitter, hitting .311/.392/.419 with 23 stolen bases in only a 140 games. The guy doesn’t have great power, (although he did have 10 triples) but what he does provide is runs, with 97 last year, batting average, and steals, which he’ll have an opportunity to do now as the full time lead off guy. Sure he’ll probably never hit 25 home runs, but Span has a lot of value if you’re getting him in the right spot.

I could go on forever about fantasy sleepers and busts, but I’ll spare you of that pleasure. What you really need to take away from this is that the key to success is valuing what others undervalue. While people love home runs or a guy who had a hot year or a prospect with a lot of buzz, chances are you’re going to have to draft them too high to get them because everyone else wants them. Indeed, sometimes the best bet isn’t always the sexiest pick in fantasy baseball because while it’s great to find that diamond in the rough, if you want to win you need to find reliable contributors, and you find that out through some legwork. I don’t guarantee that following my reasoning will win you the league trophy, but at the very least you’ll be in a position to win and that’s a lot more than what you can say in a crapshoot like fantasy football.

Spring Is Here

2010-03-02T21:25:00.001-08:00

Well it’s finally here, there’s snow on the ground still and I can’t leave the house without making sure I’m covered from head to toe, but baseball is finally here, baseball! Yes, Opening Day is still a ways away, but the players have made their way to Florida or Arizona and Spring Training is in full swing and I couldn’t be happier. As much as I love the “Hot Stove League” seeing who signs with who and running the numbers on a player’s value, it’s the games that make me love baseball because of its inherent beauty in the little moments. Here in Spring Training probably more than any time in the season you have baseball in its simplest form, stripped of the pretense and the pomp and circumstance. It’s maybe not always the most competitive game, with a smattering of has-beens and never-was guys thrown in with the All-Stars, but its baseball, and after the cold winter months it’s a sight for sore eyes.

For anyone has never gone to a Spring Training game it’s something that every true baseball fan should see because of its uniqueness and simplicity. I was lucky enough to collect a few bucks and head down to Florida a couple years ago with a buddy of mine and the experience was unlike any I had before at a baseball game. My friend Kev, a Red Sox fan, and I a Yankee fan embarked on a weeklong odyssey in Florida to see as much baseball as we could handle. To be sure, I knew that it wouldn’t be like a day in the Bronx or Boston at the ball park, but I never expected what I saw down there the first day in Clearwater, Florida. The Yankees were playing the Phillies, with the incomparable Carl Pavano pitching against Cole Hamels, and instead of being crammed in a box seat we got to lay on a grassy hill in center field. Lying in the grass, drinking a beer and eating peanuts, it was like I was watching a game in my hometown, but no this was major leaguers, the best in the world. Indeed, this wasn’t like sitting in the top deck of Yankee Stadium, this was different, this was an intimate baseball experience with a few close friends. Everywhere you went multi-millionaire baseball players right in front of you, screwing around and chatting with fans. Heck, A-Rod was in the outfield during the game running wind sprints a good twenty feet away from me, twenty feet away! (God only knows why he decided to do that then, but it was a sight, the guy made me look small and I’m 6’4) Sure this wasn’t the level of intensity of the ALCS or the World Series, but this was something altogether different, something more unpretentious and fun.

Spring training isn’t for everyone to be sure, and I know there are a lot of people who probably find it boring, but for baseball fanatics like me it’s exciting to see the players who watch for 162 games in the regular season in a very different setting. Exciting not necessarily because the games are non-stop excitement, although there was some pretty great moments (I saw Joe McEwing of all people hit a walk-off grand slam for the Sox against the Blue Jays) but because it reminds you that at the core of baseball, when you cut through the bullshit baseball is a game, and a great one at that.

The Twins Know What They're Doing (Part 2)

2010-03-01T19:00:00.000-08:00

Okay, so maybe I was overly optimistic on my ability to bang out another article on the Twins. One day, nearly two weeks who’s counting right? Well I guess that’s what happens when you go to law school, one day you’ve got nothing but time, the next there’s not enough because you’ve got papers to write and cases to read. I digress. As I was saying last time the Minnesota Twins have shown an exceptional ability to get the most value out of every salary dollar. While so many other mid-market teams seemed destined to have large portions of their salary in sunk cost of players underperforming (i.e. Jose Guillen of the Royals, Barry Zito of the Giants) the Twins manage seem to manage to know how to invest wisely where market inequalities exist. Such is the case for Orlando Hudson and his recent contract for one year $5million a few weeks ago. While many teams have tried to shy away from giving out free agent money to veterans like they used to, the Twins managed to take advantage of the undervalued Hudson and solidify their infield unlike any Twins team in years.

For those who don’t remember, Orlando was in a very similar situation last year as spring training approached. Coming off a big year with the Diamondbacks, Hudson was a free agent for the first time and was given the dreaded Elias A Free Agent Status. For those who don’t know, “A” Status is given to free agents deemed the best of the class, who in turn require that the signing team give the old team a first round draft pick, something that teams are reluctant to give up. Subsequently, despite an impressive season that produced a .305/.367/.450 batting line and a gold glove, Hudson was forced to take a last minute 2.5million dollar deal from Los Angeles. However, it didn’t take long for Hudson to show the other 29 clubs how sorry they should be for not signing him when he got off an impressive start for the first two months hitting .333/.405/490 with solid defense. Indeed, it was plain to see early on in his tenure for the Dodgers that Orlando was an all-around solid player, good for 3.2 wins above replacement the year before.

Yet as hot as Hudson began the season, an uncharacteristic cold streak made the beginning of the season seem to vanish from baseballs’ memory. Indeed, after tearing the cover off the ball in May, Hudson was a disaster in June hitting .222/.269/.343, and while he recovered his Manager Joe Torre seemed to lose confidence in the veteran second basemen. Although he continued to get at bats throughout the season, Hudson saw his plate appearances diminished in favor of Ronnie Belliard, a veteran who can be serviceable a times, but not nearly the player the O-Dog is. As a result, by playoff season Hudson was mostly a spectator as the Dodgers fell to the Cardinals, and in truth he didn’t really deserve it. A closer looker at the numbers, particularly his BABIP shows an extraordinarily unlucky season, hitting as low as .247 after hitting close to .310 for his career. As these numbers and several other findings show Hudson was a victim to bad luck and circumstance that won’t likely continue in 2010. An even more in depth look at Hudson’s season by Bill James shows a move out of Dodger Stadium will benefit Hudson greatly this year. In James’ 2010 Handbook shows that Dodger Stadium decreased both triples and doubles by more than ten percent, a drop that is even more impressive when you consider that his old Park, Chase Field increased triples by 73 percent. Although we can’t know for sure how Target field will play, it’s sure to be more of a hitters park than Dodger Stadium where he still managed to hit .283/.356/.417.

Additionally, Hudson provides a great deal of value with his glove, where he has made a name for himself as one of the games’ best. Already a four time gold glover, Orlando brings a great deal of athleticism to the position, as well as impressive range despite already being 32. Although Hudson’s UZR wasn’t all that impressive last year standing at -3.7, this is largely a product of his inconsistent playing time, and it still has not hurt his career line of 17.6. To be sure, second basemen with career UZR averages of 17.6 above average are far and few between in this league, especially those available for a scant 5million.

This impressive combination of offensive prowess and defensive acumen exhibited by Hudson makes the second basemen worth every penny the Twins paid and more for the season. Indeed, fangraphs.com valued the dollar amount of his performance last year $11.4million, and it’s hard to hard to argue with those numbers. Orlando appears poised to significantly improve a Twins team that won the AL Central last year, and in typical Twins fashion they got it for basically nothing. It’s moves like these that have made Minnesota one of the model franchises in baseball, who now with a new stadium should have even more resources should make things even more uncomfortable for an already nervous group of divisional foes.

The Twins Know What They're Doing (Part One)

2010-02-16T19:22:00.001-08:00

In the vast baseball landscape dominated by the big market teams like New York, Boston, and Los Angeles, it’s very easy to forget about the Minnesota Twins and what they’ve accomplished. Hampered by a shoestring budget in a market that isn’t exactly what you’d call paradise, the Twins are the team that everyone forgets about, quietly making smart move after smart move and in the process becoming a mainstay of the powerful teams in the American League. Indeed, despite a payroll that ranks among the lowest year after year, the Twins have made the playoffs five times since 2000, a feat that is only matched by four other teams on the Junior Circuit. How do they do it? What’s their secret that no one else seems to know? In truth, there is no secret to the Twins’ success except for having a keen eye for talent and spending money judicially, as evidenced by the moves for J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson.

The trade for J.J. Hardy like many moves by the Twins was both unassuming and brilliant. Traded in early November while everyone was worried with the World Series, the Twins swapped their talented but inconsistent center fielder Carlos Gomez in exchange for the former All-Star shortstop. Some of you may remember that Gomez was the centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade with the Mets a few years back, and while it is clear the 24 year old centerfielder has talent, Carlos has considerable work to do before he can be considered a major league hitter. Indeed, Carlos’s first two years for Minnesota have been nothing short of atrocious, hitting a measly .258/.296/.360 in 2008 and the next year he hit even worse, hitting an embarrassing .229/.287/.337; that’s an OPS+ of 64! He’s not even close to being an okay hitter! Now this isn’t to say Gomez has been totally worthless, somewhat making up for his lack of run production with some above average run prevention, posting a UZR/150 of 16.1 and 10.00 the last two seasons, but he still leaves a lot to be desired. All of these factors considered, it is in fact pretty remarkable that the Brewers would be willing to give up a guy like Hardy when it’s so evident how flawed Gomez is as a player.

In return for the talented Gomez Milwaukee traded former All-Star J.J. Hardy, a similarly talented, but more established talent. Still only 26, the young shortstop has put up some gaudy offensive stats that most teams would kill for, hitting 51 home runs between 2007-8 and posting a pretty impressive .284/.343/.478 batting line in that time. Numbers like these got Hardy recognized quickly that he was one of the emerging power hitters of the National League. But Hardy’s bat doesn’t tell the whole story as to how valuable he has been, because he’s been one of the better defensive shortstops as well. Hardy’s UZR/150 for 2007-8 were above average and at times spectacular, posting numbers as high as 16.7 and averaging around 11.5. In sum, combining a great bat with gold glove caliber defense, Hardy established himself as one of the more valuable and irreplaceable young players in all of baseball by the summer of 2008. For a point of reference, Fangraphs.com put Hardy’s 2008 value as an astounding $22.6 million, or five wins above a replacement player; the guy is no joke.

Now of course this is not the whole story with Hardy, and the most recent numbers aren’t nearly as kind to the young shortstop. Coming off an All-Star year there were a lot of expectations on Hardy, but for some reason or another expectations were not met. For the year Hardy hit a rather pedestrian .229/.302/.357, with an OPS+ 76 that eventually earned him a demotion to AAA for the remainder of the season. To be sure, there is no way to sugarcoat Hardy’s disappointing season, but there are a lot of reasons to suggest that he still can be valuable and at best return to form this year. For one, J.J. at 26 is still relatively young and still has time before he hits his prime. For another, Hardy’s BABIP was .241, an extraordinarily low number that suggests that a lot of his misfortune could possibly be the product of bad luck. Finally, Hardy is at the very least still an above average defender, posting a UZR/150 of 8.6 last year, the same number he had the season before. None of these factors ensure that Hardy will go back to hitting 26 home runs and playing gold glove defense, but they are at the very least encouraging.

To be sure, it seems that the Twins here made a move that can only improve their team for 2010 and beyond. Even when J.J. Hardy was at his worst last season he still was a better hitter than Gomez has ever been, along with comparable defense at a more demanding defensive position, how can they lose? It’s a move that makes a lot of sense for the Twins and is consistent with their long history of being a smart organization. Even when they make mistakes, like they did with Gomez, the Twins appear to be properly equipped to handle it thanks to great scouting and an eye for the numbers like the ones I showed you here in order to make something out of nothing. Of course it’s entirely possible that a talented athlete like Carlos Gomez will finally “figure it out” and become a major league hitter and prove the Twins to be foolish, but as the numbers suggest there isn’t a lot of hope for that happening when the guy can’t get on freaking base. In short, the Twins know this better than most teams do, which is why they seem to be able to grab talent out of thin air and continue to be one of the more successful franchises in baseball.

Part Two of my take on the Twins will hopefully be up tomorrow, assuming I get my reading done at a reasonable time.

All The Talent in the World

2010-02-09T17:08:00.000-08:00

I can’t say that I’ve ever gotten a request for an article, but when someone gives me an excuse to write about something Yankee related, a Yankee prospect no less, I have to jump at the opportunity. Jesus Montero, for those who aren’t familiar with the young Venezuelan, is a twenty year old catching prospect and is arguably the most talented prospect the Yankees have had since Derek Jeter. Conversely, Montero is also one of the most controversial prospects in that time as well. Indeed, talent evaluators like Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are decidedly torn about where the future lies for the 6’4 catcher. Can he stay at catcher? Is there a spot for him in the Yankees lineup with all the veteran players signed to long term deals? These answers and more remain to be seen, but what seems clear is that wherever he’ll play, Montero will hit.

It is fashionable to deride Yankee Prospects as being overrated by the media and Yankee fans, but Jesus Montero’s talent cannot be overstated. Indeed, Baseball America has recently put out their top 25 prospects in all of baseball list and they put Montero at number five. John Manuel, noted talent evaluator calls Montero “The Minors Best Hitter,” and when you look at the ridiculous numbers he’s put up while only being twenty this season it’s easy to see why. Starting in 2007, Montero made his debut in the pitcher friendly Gulf Coast League and hit .280/.366/.421 with three homes and six doubles in 33 games. Not too shabby for a 17 year old kid who’s learning to catch at a professional level, but it was the 2008 during his first full season where Montero truly distinguished himself as an elite prospect. The Yankees placed him in the South Atlantic League, a tough league for an 18 year old to handle, and he met the challenge handily, hitting .326 in 171 games and finishing in the top ten in runs scored with 86, 34 doubles, 87 RBI, and 258 total bases. In addition, Montero hit seventeen home runs, good for twelfth in the league. These are impressive numbers for any 18 year old prospect, but for an 18 year old who’s playing the demanding position of catcher is doubly impressive.

In 2009, Montero continued his hot hitting ways as he abused minor league hitters at multiple levels. Beginning the season in High-A Ball, Montero made it very easy for the Yankees to move him up quickly, hitting an insane .356/.406/.583 in 180 bats, smacking eight homes and fifteen doubles in that time. From there, Montero was moved to Double A where he continued his hot hitting as one of the youngest playing in the league posting a .317/.370/.539 batting line with another nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 44 games. Unfortunately, Montero’s season was cut short in August with a hand injury, limiting his games played last season, but it seems to have been enough for many to anoint him the best bat in the minors with considerable ease. From all accounts, the sky is the limit for Montero in the majors, and has already drawn comparisons from such other talented right handed hitters like Manny Ramirez. This seems like hyperbole, but in truth there is no other prospect or young player in the game today more poised to reach those heights as a hitter. Montero possesses a great eye at the plate, and a smooth, level swing that enables him to hit for average, but also power, and lots of it. In the scouting scale of 20 to 80, with 80 being the highest, Keith Law of ESPN and John Manuel of Baseball America put his power at 80, thanks to his quick bat and powerful frame. To be sure, as a Yankee fan there’s not much to dislike about this kid’s bat and the potential to have a perennial All-Star waiting in the wings.

Now I’m sure some of you are wondering why I said that Montero is a controversial prospect considering all the off-the charts good stats I just rattled off, but there is an area of concern for Montero for is glove. As mentioned earlier, Montero is only twenty years old and he’s already listed at 6’4 and 225 pounds, with considerable room to grow. Subsequently, there is a lot of concern within Yankee management and the talent evaluators out there that Montero simply won’t be too big to play there for any extended period. Indeed, traditionally a position where guys are small, a guy the size of Jesus’ is going to be more susceptible to wear and tear having to be in the catcher position all game for 162 games.

Further, even if Montero can handle the rigors of the position, he’s not exactly Johnny Bench back there defensively. With a long and slow throwing motion and not a whole lot of athleticism, Montero so far as proven to be a defensive liability behind the plate, so much so that there is a lot of doubt as to whether he’s even playable behind the plate. For most teams this wouldn’t be a problem, as most teams could simply slot him over at first base, but with Mark Teixeira signed for the next six years, first base isn’t really an option for Montero. From there, things get dicey as to where Jesus can fit on this team because of the plethora of old players on the Yankee roster. If the Yankees were to decide to make Jesus a full time DH, this would create problems as Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez get older and closer to forty. Neither of those guys will be able to play their current position indefinitely, and it seems likely that at least one of them will need to DH as the years go by, leaving yet another potential lineup spot for Montero filled. The answer to this quandary remains unclear, but what is clear that Cashman is going to have to get creative to fit him in somewhere soon.

No one can know for sure exactly how good Jesus Montero will be, but he’s certainly more equipped than most to succeed at a very high level in the majors. Still only twenty, Montero still has a lot of time to grow and develop as a player, and the player that he could grow into could be something very special. It’s possible that the Yankees will be unable to find a suitable spot for him and eventually trade him for major league talent as they are apt to do, but as a Yankee fan I really hope that doesn’t happen. As far as I know, the Yankees haven’t had a power hitting prospect with this much potential since maybe Mickey Mantle, and I’d hate to see him develop and flourish somewhere other than the Bronx. Hopefully Cashman feels the same way.

On a side note, if you want to submit a suggestion for me to write an article, just let me know and I’ll see if I can’t mess it up too bad. Thanks for reading.

Lincecum wants to get paid

2010-02-05T15:31:00.000-08:00

This time of the year is always the hardest to find anything decent to write about in the world of baseball. Only weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting in spring training (thank God), teams have pretty much finalized all their important roster spots, and all the important free agents have signed deals by this point (Cough cough Johnny Damon Cough). All of this adds up to a pretty boring few weeks for a sports fan who doesn’t have a team in the Super Bowl and doesn’t give a shit about basketball and hockey like me. Thankfully, there are a few interesting under the radar stories going on in baseball that to the untrained eye may appear to be unimportant, but in actuality could be a great indicator of what’s to come in the next few years. One such case is the upcoming arbitration case of Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants. Lincecum, only 25 and coming off his second straight Cy Young Award, is easily one of the best pitchers in baseball already and is finally eligible for a raise via arbitration. However, if the reports about the initial offers are correct, it seems that it’s getting pretty ugly pretty quickly between the two parties. Lincecum is asking for $13 million for this season, a number that would obliterate Ryan Howard’s prior record of $10 million, but the Giants are trying to lowball him with an $8 million offer. Now to you and me normal people $8 million sounds like a pretty sweet deal, especially when you consider this would be a significant increase from his $400,000 salary last year, but the Giants’ decision to be cheap now could hurt them in the long run. Bad feelings from a hard fought arbitration could ultimately push Lincecum away when it comes time for free agency, and the Giants can’t let that happen because he’s simply too good to lose.

A lot has been written by the wiry right hander in major sports periodicals, but it’s truly difficult to understate how absolutely sick Tim Lincecum is at pitching. At 5’11” and 170 pounds, Lincecum certainly doesn’t strike the average person as really intimidating, but few pitchers in the history of the game have so thoroughly dominated the game from the get-go as he has. Drafted in the first round out of Washington University, Lincecum was in the majors after only pitching an unheard of 62 innings in the minor leagues because he was simply outclassing hitters. In those 62 innings, Lincecum struck out 104 hitters, only gave up 26 hits and walked 23; that’s ridiculous. It’s hard to emphasize how unprecedented this level of dominance is, but consider for a moment that Jon Lester, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, and CC Sabbathia all pitched at least 450 innings before they were ready to handle the rigors of major league pitching. Little Timmy Lincecum was ready in 62 innings and never turned back.

After getting to the majors, most pitchers go through a period of adjustment to major league hitters due to the dramatic jump of talent they’re facing; the same cannot be said about Lincecum. Only 22 years old at the time, Lincecum came up to the major league roster and dazzled hitters with his blazing fastball and his wicked curve. In 146 innings, Lincecum struck out 150 while only walking 65, to the tune of a 4.00ERA. He kept hitters to a crazy .228 batting average and gave up only .7 home runs per nine innings, and here’s he crazy part, he was even better than those numbers say. FIP or fielding independent pitching, put Lincecum’s ERA at only 3.63, suggesting that if Lincecum didn’t have bunch of bums defensively like Barry Bonds playing for him he would have been even better. To be sure, it’s very rare that you see a pitcher dominate this well so early, and the scary part is he got a lot better.

Expectations were high for Lincecum in 2008 and it’s pretty easy to say he exceeded those expectations and more with his first Cy Young Season in only his first full season in the majors. In 227 innings, Lincecum managed to win 18 games for an absolutely atrocious Giants team thanks to his utter dominance on the mound. Lincecum struck out 265 men that year, while bringing his walk rate down from 4.0 per nine to 3.3 per nine and his WHIP from 1.28 to 1.17. Fangraphs.com valued his performance at an astounding 7.5 wins above replacement player and a salary $33.7million that year, and it’s easy to see why. The guy just embarrassed hitters out there, and earned himself national acclaim for it.

One would think that Lincecum would be due for some sort of speed bump or sophomore slump going into 2009, but in fact he just keeps getting better, how is this possible? Tim lowered his ERA to 2.48, lowered his walks again from 84 to 68, and lowered his WHIP to 1.05 thanks to his improved changeup, a pitch that baseballanaylsts.com lists as the most effective pitch in baseball last year, and it’s his third pitch! Although he only won 15 games last year for a similarly shitty Giants team, Tim got the Cy Young, and it’s hard to argue with the voters on this one. The best pitcher in the National League just got better, and just because his team has a bunch of stiffs that couldn’t muster a few runs to get him the wins they couldn’t let his prodigious deeds go unrewarded.

Okay, so I’m sure you’re wondering still “well that’s all well and fine, but why does he deserve the highest arbitration number in baseball history? $8 million is nothing to scoff at, and it’s the best for a pitcher ever, what gives?” To be sure, an award of $8 million would be nice, and even if the arbitrator split the difference at say $10.5 million you couldn’t feel all that sorry for the guy, but the point is this guy is historically great on so many levels, why try to piss him off? Despite years of bungling drafts and trades by signing veteran guys and getting older and older ever year, the Giants stumbled upon a guy who’s dominance is arguably in the same pantheon of some of the all time greats like Koufax in ’66 or Pedro in 99’; you managed to get this right, isn’t it worth the extra $5million to ensure that he stays happy and wants to stay in San Francisco? This guy’s potential is unlimited, already one of the top five pitchers in the game at 25, this is the guy you spend money on, this is the guy that is worth overpaying for, but the Giants don’t seem to get it. I for one feel sorry for the Giants fans, because Lincecum has already expressed his displeasure with the Giant’s handing of these negotiations and it’s hard to argue with him. He’s been the best or among the best wherever he’s been and deserves every penny he wants.

Some Thoughts on Johnny Damon

2010-01-29T18:57:00.000-08:00

Of all the topics that have been discussed in the Yankee Universe these last few weeks, Johnny Damon and his status with the team has been the most hotly discussed by fans everywhere. Coming off a remarkable postseason run, including one of the oddest and smartest baserunning moves I’ve ever seen in Game 2 of the World Series, fans generally have strong feelings on veteran outfielder. Damon has been one of those guys fans like to have on their teams, excellent hitter who works the count and can steal some bases, but probably more specifically he’s been a great “clubhouse guy.” To be cliché Johnny has always been a player that looked like he was having fun out there, always with a smile on his face and a hop in his step, and fans responded to his excitement for the game and bubbly personality. But it seems that despite his prodigious contributions to the team, Cashman and the Yankee management decided that Johnny was too expensive, instead choosing to go with the speedy Brett Gardner along with Swisher and Granderson, as well as recently signing Randy Winn to be the backup; was this the right move, or are the Yanks just being cheap? Time will only tell whether opting to move on from Johnny Damon will pay off, and while I’ll miss seeing him play I can see why they did it.

I mentioned above that Johnny is a veteran outfielder, and at 37 it’s easy to see that his best days are behind him. Indeed, especially on the defensive end, Johnny has clearly lost a step since he first signed with the team and it has affected his range significantly. Signed originally as a centerfielder, Johnny was quickly moved to left field in his second year and every year his numbers in the field have worsened. After starting strong in left field with a respectable UZR of 7.5, his numbers have trended downward to last season when he a horrible -9.2, and an even more embarrassing -12.1 UZR/150, a number that ranked Johnny as the worst left fielder in the game. Similarly, the other defensive stats are equally unkind to Johnny, most notably, RngR or Range Runs Above Average went down from 7.0 to -3.7 (zero is league average for both stats). Of course, defensive metrics are still not a perfect measure of a player’s ability, but when you watch Damon it’s pretty plain that Johnny is no longer an effective defensive outfielder. Time and time again Johnny was not able to get to balls that he should have, and all those missed opportunities add up to extra runs for the other team, and this is something the Yankees could not afford to live with anymore. Compare this to Brett Gardner’s numbers, where he posted an impressive 9.5 UZR and an even more impressive UZR/150 of 69.5, a number that was the best in the game (yes you read that right, Brett Gardner of all people, the dude who’s like five feet tall and kind of looks like a cro-magnon man, was the best defensive centerfielder in all of baseball according to UZR). Some fans may not feel that defense is that important, but it is clear that the Yankees do. A run saved is as good as a run earned, and by eliminating Damon from their roster the Yankees should be much better in this regard.

Of course, defense is only half of the story, and offensively Johnny has been a vital cog in the Yankees hitting machine during his tenure. Putting up impressive OPS+ numbers the last two years of 118 and 126, Johnny has been excellent in all facets of hitting, particularly last year when he hit a respectable .282/.365/.489 line last year while hitting in the leadoff spot. He hit for power, hit for average, and probably most importantly he got on base and produced runs, with 107 last year. And yet while these numbers are impressive, there are serious concerns as to whether he can keep that up. Indeed, looking at Damon’s home and road splits last year, it seems plain that those numbers have been significantly inflated by playing half of his games in cozy Yankee Stadium, posting a 136 OPS+ last year, while only 117 on the road; can Damon expect the Stadium to be so forgiving next year? Further, entering his age 37 season, there is reason to believe that those numbers will only get worse next year, with several projection systems including those by CHONE and Bill James both anticipating his home runs will go down from 24 to 17, as well as a steep decrease in batting average. Again, projection systems are not an exact science at this point, but there are many reasons to believe that Damon won’t be able to keep up his production in the years to come. Johnny has been battling injuries the last few years, and as he gets older those injuries will only get worse as he gets older. What’s more, while it’s easy to forget this now after the postseason, but Damon was clearly showing signs of breaking down by the end of the season, after starting off hot with a 154 OPS+ in April down to a dismal 82 OPS+ in September. This could just be a bad month, but this is the kind of breakdown that the Yankees want to avoid. An old team already, the Yankees just didn’t want to add another old player to their roster who’s susceptible to injury. Thirty-sesven may not be that old in the real world, but in baseball it’s practically ancient.

Finally, it may be hard to imagine, but it seems the Yankees already have their Damon replacement in a younger and more athletic Curtis Granderson. I’ve already written about Granderson’s prowess in the bat and the field, but to recap Curtis is a guy who should be able to easily replace Damon’s impact for a lot less money than he was making. Although he’s coming off an off year where he only hit .249/.327/.453, the project systems by Bill James and CHONE are very favorable to Curtis, both seeing his batting average jump back up to a more respectable .280 and still showing a lot of power, hitting 27 home runs and 11 triples, that’s pretty solid. He’s not Johnny Damon exactly, but Curtis is a guy who brings a lot to the table, and only 29 years old he should be a productive guy for a long time.

Reading the rumors and speculations about the contract negotiations it’s hard to say whose fault it is that a deal couldn’t be made, but it seems clear that from the beginning the Yankees just weren’t that determined the sign Damon. While he would clearly help the offense and there may be times that the Yankees will miss his production, it’s pretty apparent that Damon is not worth what he thinks he is, that being 15million a year for two years. Damon’s glove has diminished greatly over the last three years, and combined that with a bat that may not be as good as it used to be gives us a guy that just isn’t a great player anymore. I know that I will miss seeing Johnny play for the Yankees, but I am also confident that the plan the Yankees have in place will make them a better team. It may not be the most popular move among Yankee fans right now, but it’s a move that the Yankees needed to do to continue to improve and keep up with the rest of a very dangerous AL East.

A's Take Big Risk with Sheets

2010-01-26T17:49:00.000-08:00

Ever since the publishing of Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, Billy Beene and the Oakland Athletics have been the focus of a great deal of praise and criticism. Working on a shoestring budget in a small market, Beene has been forced to squeeze every bit of talent from every dollar by evaluating players in new and inventive ways, and it has paid off handsomely for Oakland. Year after year Oakland in the last decade have been perennial contenders, winning a handful of division titles and become mainstays in the AL West, at least until as of late. With the loss of such stars like Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, and Dan Haren to name a few, Oakland has had trouble finding replacements from within. As a consequence, the A’s have been forced to try different things to win. The trend began last year with the surpirising trade for Matt Holliday and it continues this year today with a surprise signing of Ben Sheets, the oft-injured right hander for a surprisingly rich contract of $10 million. Ten million may not be much for the likes of the Yankees or Red Sox, but this is a big chunk of change for the A’s, and while Sheets is an unbelievable talent, his injury history suggests he’ll be spending more time on the training table than the pitching mound.

As mentioned above, Sheets at age 31 has shown himself to be an unbelievable talent, when he’s healthy. Featuring a great fastball with good movement sitting around 93MPH and a wicked curveball, Sheets has shown the ability to make guys swing and miss throughout his career, striking out an impressive 7.6 per nine innings while only walking 2.0 per nine. This ability to get guys to swing and miss so often has made Sheets a rather successful pitcher, averaging a 115 ERA+ for his career, along with four all-star appearances as the ace of the Milwaukee Brewers since 2001. All of this bodes well for Sheets and the Oakland Athletics, a team that plays in the spacious Oakland Coliseum that has proven to be a pitcher’s park for those who’ve had to play there. Further, while many National League pitchers have had difficulty to make the switch to the American League, Sheets’ electric stuff suggests that his transition to the junior circuit won’t be too difficult. All of these factors add up to a pretty solid pitcher for the A’s, but as we will see below this is only part of the story with Sheets.

To be sure, if you ask anyone familiar with Ben Sheets they will tell you it’s not the on-field stuff that’s the problem with Sheets, its staying healthy enough to be there. While possessing great talent and at times ace-caliber performance, Sheets has been plagued with injuries throughout his career. Here’s a list of Sheet’s many stints on the DL;

2001: right shoulder tendinitis (DL, missed 46 days)
2005: Vestibular Neuritis (DL, missed 37 days)
2005: upper back strain (DL, missed 36 days)
2006: right shoulder strain (DL, missed 23 days)
2006: right shoulder tendinitis (DL, missed 82 days)
2007: right middle finger injury (DL, missed 45 days)

Just looking at that list makes me ache. Now of course, there is reason to believe that Sheets can overcome these injuries. After all, none of these injuries are arm related, and allegedly his shoulder issues have been resolved after sitting out for the year, but as true as this may be the trend are troubling. Now in his 30s, history has shown us that as players age they usually don’t get more durable, and there is a lot to suggest that this will only get worse for Sheets.

For sure, the A’s have taken a sizable risk in signing Sheets to a contract that awards the righty could earn well more than 10million in incentives. Sheets has shown to a great talent, but is he going to be worth it? After all, in the past five seasons Sheets has averaged only 120 innings (counting the zero last year) and hasn’t thrown 200 innings since 2004, what can the A’s reasonable expect? Because I respect Beene and what he does in Oakland so much I want to like this deal, but for the cash-strapped A’s this is a puzzling move. Ten million is a lot to give a guy who’s coming off major shoulder surgery, and it seems to be a risk that Oakland cannot afford to take. Then again, I haven’t had a book written about me, so maybe Beene knows something I don’t.

Small Market Reds Nab the Big Armed Cuban Chapman

2010-01-11T18:47:00.000-08:00

It is very common for baseball writers and fans alike to decry the financial dominance of the have’s of baseball over the have-nots. With teams like the Red Sox and Yankees seemingly grabbing every big name free agent out there, so many people like to say that these teams use their financial muscle to dominate the game and make it impossible for the small market teams to succeed. But this line of thinking is short-sighted and in truth overlooking the vast wealth of talent available in the draft and the international market, two areas where the small market teams thrive and prosper. After months of speculation following Chapman’s defection from Cuba, it was widely accepted that the Yankees or Sox would undoubtedly sign the talented young lefty for an ungodly sum, but instead it was Cincinnati who signed Chapman to a five year $30 million dollar deal today who vastly improved their already promising young staff. Although Chapman is very raw, the Reds just signed themselves a potentially excellent young starter who has the talent to become one of the league’s best.

Unfortunately for stat heads like myself, there is really little or no statistics on the 21 year old, but it is plain to see Chapman’s immense talent. Tall and lanky, Chapman throws easy gas from the left side in the mid-90s that reaches as high as 101mph at times. In addition to his great fastball, Chapman features a wicked slider that falls off the table and is very hard to pick up for a left-handed hitter. To be sure, Chapman clearly has all the tools to succeed in the majors, but there are questions about his control and his makeup that don’t make the signing a slam dunk. Indeed, in the few times Chapman has faced top-flight competition the young lefty has shown serious problems for commanding the strike zone, particularly in the World Baseball Classic final where he pitched 6.1 innings and allowed only two hits and struck out eight but also walked four. This is small sample size for sure, but certainly indicative of the young lefty’s talent and misgivings as a pitcher. Further, there have been issues whether Chapman can maintain his electric stuff for six or seven innings, with several scouts saying that his velocity has been known to drop considerably in the late innings, suggesting that Aroldis’ future lies in the bullpen as a closer, a development that would make his value considerably less great.

In addition to the stuff on the field, there have been other issues that put into question Chapman’s ability to make it in the Show. After defecting from Cuba, Chapman signed with the Hendricks Brothers’ Agency who were instrumental in helping the young lefty complete the legal process of getting out of Cuba and getting becoming eligible for free agency this off-season. However, right before the MLB off-season started Chapman suddenly dropped the agency for another agency despite all the help he had given them. Further, there have been many reports of Chapman’s immaturity and questionable makeup. Chapman has already made it clear he doesn’t want to be a reliever and has been called un-coachable by some experts.

Although Chapman is no sure bet as a prospect making it in the majors I like this move a lot for the Reds now and for the future. It would seem unlikely that Chapman would make the Opening Day rotation, and there are obvious questions as to whether he can live up to the hype, the Reds very astutely spent their money on the most talented pitcher on the market for a price much lower than guys like John Lackey, who doesn’t have nearly as great stuff as the young lefty has. Personally, I’m happy to see a small market team be smart with their money and get a really talented pitcher. He’s a prospect and all prospects come with some risk, but a guy like Chapman and his arm are worth the risk, and he could make an already young and talented rotation even better.

McGwire? Steroids? No Way.

2010-01-11T17:43:00.000-08:00

Steroid news at this point is so old hat I'm weary of even writing about it at this point. Time after time we find as our heroes from the last two decades were guilty of taking every advantage they could get, and it seems that Mark McGwire is no different. In truth, this is hardly news at this point (I mean just look at that picture the guy is a beast) but as McGwire is about to take the Cardinals hitting coach job, Mark has been forced to deal with the issue that he so poorly skirted earlier by announcing today that he took steroids throughout his career and I'm glad he said. Sure he should've done this sooner, but he gave a very impassioned interview and seemed genuinely remorseful about what he did and seems finally ready to move on with his life. I always liked McGwire he seemed like a good guy and he was a hell of a player, steroids or no steroids; I mean the guy hit 49 home runs his rookie year in the cavernous Oakland Stadium and he hit them early and often. I hope that someday he gets into the Hall but I'm sure that won't be for a long time if ever because he was a great player. Steroids or not, McGwire still had to hit those home runs and the steroids can't make anyone hit dingers like he did, and hopefully this admission will lead others to come forward, but I doubt it.

The Hall of Fame is Turning into the Hall of Seemed Really Great

2010-01-08T18:20:00.000-08:00

I have to be honest the whole Hall of Fame situation is so obvious and wrongheaded I almost didn’t write about it. As I was pretending to work and reading all the major sports websites practically every baseball writers, even the dumb ones, (Buster Olney cough cough) were rallying against the Hall of Fame voting system and how flawed it is to the point that it seems that everyone knows this fact. For me to rant and rave about how stupid the system almost seems superfluous because I’m really just preaching to the choir; after all when was the last time you talked to someone and they said “you know I really agreed with all the Hall of Fame inductions.” It’s gotten to the point that I’m starting to feel like it’s a manufactured talking point by baseball writers to create something to write about, and in truth I think I may be more right than wrong and that’s the problem. The Hall of Fame as originally intended was a place reserved only for the best players in the history of the game, not guys who everyone liked or was a great teammate or some subjective shit like that, just the best of the game and whose impact on their era was indelible. Of course this is the ideal of the Hall of Fame, and clearly that ideal is not being met because the people who decide are just that, people, and people are biased. People have their opinions and they have feelings and they want to believe their subjective experiences are important and unfortunately this gets in the way of the truth sometimes. Well it appears that these subjective tendencies have come to dominate Hall of Fame voting where the right people are not getting in and the wrong people are, and this year with what should have been lock first ballot Hall of Famers Barry Larkin and Roberto Alomar didn’t get in and the talented but highly flawed Andre Dawson did get in.

If you were to ask the writers and fans who saw Andre Dawson saw him play they would tell you he’s in the Hall right now because he was an all around talent capable of amazing things anywhere and everywhere. For his career hitting 438 home runs, stealing 314 bases, Dawson was a dual threat on the field and was a dominant player in his era. Along with the those gaudy numbers Dawson had eight All-Star appearances, eight gold gloves, as well as an MVP award in 1987 for the last place Cubs. To be sure, on the surface these numbers would make one think that Dawson is a slam-dunk Hall of Fame candidate, but the problem is those awards are similarly flawed and subjective. Indeed, gold gloves, All-Star appearances and MVP awards are not necessarily given to the best at that particular position because they are based on people’s subjective experiences and those subjective answers and those subjective ideas do not become objective by virtue of a lot of people agreeing on it. What are objective factors in deciding on what makes a good player are the numbers, and the numbers show Dawson to be a talented and very good player, but not a great player. If you haven’t heard, Dawson’s career .323OBP is the lowest on-base percentage of any Hall of Famer by TWENTY POINTS, twenty! Dawson’s OPS+ which adjusts to the park and the league he’s playing in puts Andre’s career number at 119, which is only 19 points higher than a replacement player. To put that in perspective, Bernie Williams, the Yankee centerfielder who by all accounts was a very good player, but not great had a career OPS+ of 123, do these numbers scream one of the all-time greats? Even at Dawson’s zenith in 1987 the numbers aren’t that great, where Dawson clearly benefited from the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field and hit only .247 on the road that season and was 12th in the league in OPS+. Sure Dawson hit 49 home runs that year, but to belabor the point the purpose of a hitter is to impact the game as much he can, and a hitter accomplishes that by getting on base and putting himself in a position to score runs. And while Dawson drove in some runs and drove in himself 49 times, how many runs did he take off the board by striking out over 100 time and only walking 32? Of course there will be many people who will say that walking isn’t the point of the game and that if you saw him play you could see how he impacted the game and I say those people are full of shit. If Dawson was really that great and he really did impact the game like people say he was when you saw him in person, then the numbers would show it. Just because Dawson was flashy and did some things well doesn’t mean he’s a great player, and by all accounts he was not.

Joe Posanski, one of the great voices in baseball today tackled this issue recently on si.com and attributed Dawson’s entry into the Hall because of the era’s lack of truly great players. Playing in an era in the 1970s and 80s when statically there wasn’t a Cobb or Feller or a Ruth, Dawson may not have been on their level in his impact on the game, but for his time he was one of the great players, and I find this reason very unsatisfactory. Posanski goes on how writers who grew up watching these guys from this era need to validate that their childhood heroes were as good as they remember and it is exactly this type of reasoning that is ruining the sanctity of the Hall of Fame. The Hall of Fame is for the best of the game of all time, and just because you saw a guy do some great things in a seminal time in your life does not simply erase the objective facts, and those facts point to Andre Dawson not being as good as those writers would want you to think. This fact may not sit well with some old crusty writers, but it’s not them who I’m worried about, I’m worried about the game and the importance of Hall to the game for all generations and putting inferior players in there along the all time greats is an insult. Maybe I’m taking the importance of the Hall of Fame too much to heart, but something needs to be done to correct this sort of backwards thinking immediately or we will continue to forget what’s really important and what truly makes greatness so great.

Sox Sign Beltre

2010-01-04T20:40:00.000-08:00

Well it seems that the Red Sox really don’t want to rely on Mike Lowell at third base next year, even if it means sitting him and his 12million a year contract on the bench for a better defensive player. Indeed, with a bad surgically repaired hip that has made him look like a seventy five year old rather than thirty five, Mike Lowell has outrun his usefulness and Boston has signed the defensive wiz Adrian Beltre to man the hot corner for a reasonable one year $9million contract. While the move is not without risk, particularly in Beltre’s bat and the risk of having to eat Lowell’s contract, Theo and the Red Sox appear to have made themselves much better defensively with little long term risk.

As mentioned above, Beltre is making his money with glove at the hot corner, where he has been among the best in baseball by all accounts. Over the last four years, Beltre has averaged a rather impressive 12.25 UZR/150 and a RngR (Range Factor) of 9.15 (again zero being average for both measurements). Compare that to Lowell’s atrocious post-injury numbers last year of a UZR/150 -14.4 and RngR -13.3, it seems clear that the addition of Beltre turns third base from a defensive liability to a strength. Additionally, Beltre, entering his age 30 season is six years younger than Lowell, something every team wants to do, and at the below market price they got him for this is a steal.

However, there is the other more looming concern for Beltre for his bat that Boston must also consider. For sure, it seems like a long time ago that Adrian hit .334/.388/.629 with 48 home runs in 2004 and signed a lucrative four year deal with the Mariners because since that year Beltre has been mediocre at best. After coming in second in MVP voting with an unbelievable 163OPS+ (steroids, cough cough) Beltre has been pretty pedestrian with the stick, posting OPSs+ of 93, 105, 112, 108, and 82 respectively since coming to the American League. Now granted, Beltre hasn’t been totally useless at the plate, hitting at least 25 home runs three times, but the guy has done little else of value, never posting an OBP of .328 since coming to Seattle. To be sure, these are not exactly the MVP numbers that ensured Beltre his big payday, but when compared to Lowell’s number they’re actually not as bad as I originally thought. Maybe it’s just because I’ve seen Lowell hammer my Yankees for the last few years, but I thought his numbers would be more impressive than they actually are, which aside from a big 2007 season where he had an OPS+ 124 the rest of his career in Boston was pretty average, with numbers of 104, 103, and 106 respectively. These numbers are better than Beltre for sure, but there is at least evidence that by virtue of moving away from the cavernous Safeco Field to the cozy Fenway Green Monster that Beltre will be able to take advantage of much like Lowell did in the last four years.

In sum, I think Beltre could be a valuable addition, but there are still glaring concerns in the Red Sox lineup that Theo Epstein must address. While Red Sox’s management has vastly improved their defense with the signings of Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre, both players project to be at best nearly as productive as the players they replace and at worse considerably less productive. It is unclear as to whether the increase in defense will make up for the runs they lose with their bat, but I will go out on a limb and say it won’t. In the case of Beltre, the Red Sox have put yet another player in an offensive-oriented position with less than stellar numbers to justify playing there. On paper, Boston may be able to justify the loss of runs by the gain of run prevention, but last year showed that in practice this doesn’t work that well. While Theo fielded a very good team, any Boston fan will tell you that the lack of a big time hitter like Manny and Ortiz had been in the past hurt them in big spots. Time and time again, particularly in the series against Anaheim, Boston’s lineup of good but not great hitters were shown to be vulnerable to pitchers who attacked the strike zone and forced them to swing. So while Beltre is a talented guy who at least has the tools to be a productive player for Boston, the Red Sox still have a long way to go before they approach the depth of the Yankees and their Muderers’ Row lineup.

Mets sign Guy They Never Should've Traded in the First Place

2010-01-03T16:18:00.000-08:00

If you’ve read this blog before you’re aware of my utter disdain of Omar Minaya and his administration of the Mets the last few years. I don’t claim to be a Mets fan by any stretch of the imagination, but I’d rather see them do well than do poorly as the other New York team, and it irks me to see him run them by a fucking retard. Move after move turns out to be bad (signing Oliver Perez for 36million, signing Castillo to a four year deal when no one wanted him for one, ruining their farm system, etc etc) and yet somehow he still has a job, how can this be? Does Omar have naked pictures of the Wilpons with a goat or something? I digress. As bad as the Mets moves have been in the last few years under Omar, I feel that Minaya may have stumbled into a halfway decent move by signing Outfielder Jason Bay to a four year 66 million dollar deal. Although the move hardly erases the litany of prior terrible moves by the much maligned GM, and there is still much to be done to improve the Metropolitans, adding a player of Bay’s ilk is never a bad move for a team and can only improve their chances in the NL East.

As you may have heard there are numerous voices in the media that loathe the move of signing Jason Bay, particularly Jeff Pearlman of Sports Illustrated. Pearlman, admittedly a far greater sports writer than I could ever hope to be, claims that the outfielder on the wrong side of thirty is a porous defender and is a bad fit for a Mets team that should be built on pitching and defense. Pearlman argues that the money spent on Bay could have been better spent requiring a starting pitcher like John Lackey or Javier Vazquez or position player like Jose Reyes who can use the spacious dimensions of Citi Field to their advantage by turning doubles into triples. Usually I would agree with Jeff’s criticism and the Mets certainly could use another pitcher (or four), but Pearlman misses the glaring fact about this team that cannot be ignored; the Mets need a lot of help EVERYWHERE. Indeed, this is team that has a 150million payroll and yet lost 93 games, the Mets are a team with a payroll that is quite top heavy on a few players and very shallow everywhere else; there is a dearth of talent at the majority of positions on the field. Thus, to run the risk of being cliché the Mets need some baseball players, guys who are talented and do several things well and bring an offensive spark to their woefully anemic offense. And as a guy .267/.384/.537 in the toughest division in baseball against the best pitchers in the game, signing Jason Bay is a move that can only make the Mets better.

Bay, 31, as I mentioned above, was formally in the Mets organization as a prospect, bouncing around to a couple of teams until he landed with the Pirates where he became one of the most prodigious and talented outfielders in the game. From 2004-8, Bay averaged nearly 30 home runs and 100 RBI’s, all while being on easily the shittiest team in baseball. But more than being simply a slugger, Bay has shown a great eye at the plate, walking 13% of the time his career and swung at pitches outside the zone only 19.4% of the time (compared to the league average of 25%).

To be sure, the combination of power and discipline have made Jason one of the better hitters in the National League, and this trend continued after being traded to the Boston Red Sox during a mid-season trade in 2008. Taking over the left field spot hoping to fill the very big shoes of Manny Ramirez, Bay did not flinch in the face of lofty expectations and represented himself admirably, posting a .293/.370/.527 line in 49 games and quickly becoming one of the big bats in the Boston lineup. And in 2009 Bay continued his hot hitting ways, hitting a career high 36 home runs and a rather impressive 134OPS+ while continuing to be one of the key cogs in the Boston hitting machine. All of these numbers add up to a very productive offensive player, moving from the hardest division to one of the easier, a league that Bay not only performed but excelled, posting a pair of All-Star seasons, what’s not to like?

However convincing the numbers on Jason Bay are, there are concerns as to whether four years and sixty six million will prove to be a worthy investment in the long term for the Metropolitans. Indeed, as mentioned above, Bay is not what we would call a defensive wiz, posting downright terrible Ultimate Zone Rating numbers, last year at -13.0, and the two years before being -18.4 and -11.5 respectively (for reference 0 is average fielding range). Coming into his age 31 season with a pair of balky knees, the defensive metrics suggest that Bay is and will only continue to be a liability to the Mets with his glove in his four years he is under contract. Of course numbers like UZR and all defensive metrics are not a perfect measure of a player’s defensive prowess, particularly with the quirky left field in Fenway Park, so there is a possibility that he will at least come close to the numbers he had in Pittsburgh where he averaged a 3.0UZR, but there’s no guarantee. At least from my own subjective experience, Bay is not a particularly defensive outfielder, who along with a real lousy arm should not bring a lot to the table with his glove this year or in the next three for that matter.

Additionally, as great as Bay’s numbers have been, there are concerns as to whether Bay’s power will translate to the cavernous Citi Field. Moving from the right handed batter friendly Fenway to the distant and high walls of Citi, there is a strong possibility that Jason will sorely miss the Green Monster for filling up the stat sheet. According to Bill James’ 2010 Handbook Citi Field depressed run scoring eight percent compared to a neutral park, sharply contrasted to Fenway’s 11 percent increase over average. For sure, one only needs to look at the two parks to suggest that it will be harder for Bay to hit home runs, but this conclusion is hardly a slam dunk. Indeed, while Fenway’s Monster gives a lot of home runs, it also turns a lot of line drive homes into singles and doubles, and there is a chance that those will turn into home runs in Citi. Further, he’s moving to a weaker league where pitchers rely on fastballs more, a pitch that Bay kills, compared to the American League that features more breaking balls, a pitch that has been Bay’s Achilles heel.

In sum, despite what some pundits and naysayers are saying, I think the signing of Jason Bay is a move in the right direction for the Mets (assuming he can stay healthy). While not a perfect player by any means, Bay exhibits enough qualities in his game to be a valuable player for any team that is fortunate to have him. I for one will be happy to not see him in the Red Sox lineup anymore, and I think that the Mets fans will come to appreciate Bay’s professionalism and respect for the game. The Mets and Omar Minaya still have a long, long, way to legitimately compete with the defending NL Champion Phillies, but they could have done a lot worse than Jason Bay.

Happy New Years from New York Nine

2010-01-01T21:06:00.000-08:00

Happy New Years and hope everyone had a great NYE to ring in the new decade. While nursing this hangover I've decided on my resolutions for the New Year, eat better, spend more time in the library, go to the gym when possible and provide you fine readers with as much high quality analysis I can provide while keeping a reasonable GPA. Here's to hoping I can keep that (at least until finals), cheers.

What is the Angels Plan Exactly? (Part Two)

2010-01-01T19:56:00.000-08:00

In part one of my take on the Angels off-season moves we dealt with the loss of Chone Figgins and the addition of Hideki Matsui, and here we are looking at the addition of Fernando Rodney and the loss of John Lackey respectively. Again, the addition of Rodney is not exactly a replacement for Lackey, but as the Angels payroll stands at 113million, almost exactly what it was last year, it seems that Fernando is the only pitcher that will be brought in to fill the void with the loss of John Lackey and what a void it is. As I noted earlier, Lackey has been the de facto ace of the Angels for the last few years and has proven himself to be a valuable and reliable starter, averaging a career 117ERA+ and 219 innings and pitching big games in big spots for the Angels since the 2002 World Series. To be sure, while Lackey’s numbers may not scream “Ace” he has clearly shown himself to be a valuable and an above average starter in the American League in the prime of his career. And yet in the face of losing such a valuable starter what has Anaheim done? Not a thing, well nothing in the starting rotation at least. Instead, the Angels have signed the former Tigers closer to a two year 11million deal, and it seems unclear as to whether it was worth the money.

In his first year s fulltime closer, Fernando Rodney had a season that was deceptively mediocre. On the surface, one could argue Rodney had a breakthrough season for the Tigers in his age 32 season, accumulating 37 saves while only having only blown one opportunity. To be completely literal, Rodney did everything you could ask a closer to do, that being have gone into practically every opportunity to save a game and accomplished just that, but is that really the best indicator of Rodney’s true talent? I for one would argue no, as the rest of his numbers indicate that Rodney is a guy who is more lucky than good. For sure, for a guy who supposedly lives on his electric stuff Rodney’s strikeout numbers took a serious dive the last year, going from an impressive 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings to a pretty pedestrian 7.1. This is most likely the product of a decreased rate of swinging strikes by opposing batters for Rodney, once averaging 11-12% for his career fell to only 9% last season. Such a drop may not seem that big of a deal, but if the subsequent strikeout rate drop are any indication Fernando will have a more difficult time getting betters out.

As if it’s not bad enough that Rodney is striking out less batters, Fernando is similarly walking batters like it’s going out of style. Indeed, never a guy who exhibited great control, Rodney continued his wild ways walking a pretty horrible 4.9 batters per nine innings, as a reliever! Especially when you’re dealing with high leverage situations like the ones closers live and die in, walks can be a pitcher’s undoing, and someone who walks nearly five per nine innings is flirting with disaster with every pitch. Admittedly this is a significant improvement from last year when he had an embarrassing 6.7walks per nine, a career rate of 4.6 suggests that this is not some sort of statistical aberration; the guy just can’t throw strikes.

Add up terrible peripherals like the ones exhibited here by Rodney and you have exactly what you’d think, a pretty lousy pitcher. With an unimpressive 4.40 ERA and 104ERA+ respectively, Rodney has been average at best and shitty at worst. Why is this guy worth 11 million again?

In sum, combined with the signing of Hideki Matsui the Angels in my opinion have made a half-assed attempt at improving their team, replacing valuable assets with marginally valuable ones on the cheap. I think Tony Regins got lucky last year, gambling on Kendry Morales to give him similar production to that of Mark Teixera and getting away it, but such gambles cannot and will not work out this time. Instead of recognizing the immensity of their losses, the Angels seem to be taking their competition for granted and assuming that they have enough talent within to let every high priced free agent walk away without even trying to retain them. Maybe it will work out and maybe they will still manage to squeak by into the AL West division championship, but as the Mariners improve and the Talented Young Texas Rangers have another year of experience under their belts, one can only wonder if the Angels’ gambles will ultimately proof foolish.

What is the Angels Plan Exactly? (Part One)

2010-01-01T16:37:00.000-08:00

Now I don't pretend to know the intimate details of the Angels’ organization and talent. After all, the Anaheim Angels since winning the 2002 World Series title have been one of the more successful and productive teams in all of baseball, winning five division titles this decade built on Mike Scioscia's aggressive brand of baseball based on pitching, defense and pushing the action as much as possible. To be sure, the guys running the Angels seem to know what they’re doing, probably a lot more than I do. And the Angels have been quite deft at making adjustments when they lose key players, last year losing Mark Teixera to the Yankees only to somehow manage to be as good if not better this year, demolishing the much-hated Red Sox in four games; their talent for adaption is quite clear. Having said all of this, and considered there is a possible method to the Angels’ madness that I don’t see, I find it very unlikely that their recent moves will be regarded as smart. Indeed, for those who haven’t kept up, there has been a lot of turnover on the Angels’ roster, first losing their dynamic third basemen Chone Figgins to the division rival Mariners, and then losing their best pitcher, John Lackey to the Boston Red Sox. For certain, these two players were some of the more talented and indeed valuable to the success of Angels’ baseball, so how do they respond? First by signing the 36 year old Hideki Matsui, a DH with two bad knees and Fernando Rodney, the Tigers closer with 37 saves, but 4.40 ERA, this is how they respond? While still a talented team, the Anaheim Angels seem to have taken a serious step backwards and put their ability to defend the AL West Title in serious doubt.

In regard to the designated hitter spot, the Angels have been somewhat lacking in production these days thanks to the decline of Vladimir Guerrero. Once one of the games’ most feared hitters, age and injuries have slowed Vlad’s bat speed and in turn seriously hurt his productivity. Limited to only 100 games last year, Vlad still hit .295, but had a meager OBP of .334 and slugged only .460 with 15 home runs. Not terrible numbers, but for a DH a OPS+ 104 (100 being league average) is simply unacceptable for a team that hopes to contend for a World Series Title. Consequently, the Angels managed to lure the World Series MVP away from the Yankees for a measly $6.5million for a pretty significant upgrade. Last year batting .274/.367/.509 with 28 home runs, Hideki at the age of 35 had one of his best seasons to date, providing clutch hitting and protection for the other big hitters in the Yankee lineup, but there are serious questions whether Matsui can duplicate these numbers away from Yankee Stadium. Indeed, Hideki’s home and road splits through OPS+ are quite dramatic, hitting an impressive OPS+ 157 at the New Yankee Stadium, but hitting a pretty pedestrian 112 away from the short right porch of the Yankee’s New Digs. Further, as mentioned earlier, Hideki is going to be 36 at the beginning of the 2010 season and is not exactly the picture of perfect health. With two knees that have to be drained throughout the season, Matsui’s days of playing the field are long over, thus significantly reducing his usefulness. Matsui is not a bad player by any stretch, and in truth he’s been one of my favorite Yankees since he came over in 2003, but this is not exactly a slam dunk signing for Anaheim.

While Hideki’s value may be slightly better than Vlad’s, what is more pressing is the issue of the loss of Figgins and how that impacts the Angel’s offensive attack. In truth it may seem unfair to compare Matsui’s value to Figgins considering the comparative size and length of their contracts (Figgins got a five year deal to Matsui’s one) what is plain is that the signing has been the only significant move to bolster their offense since allowing Figgins to leave. As such, we must compare the net gains and loss of talent for the team to adequately determine his value. Although not as powerful as Matsui, Chone provided Scioscia with a great deal of versatility with his all-around play. With the ability to play every position on the field except catcher and pitcher, Figgins’ provides above average defense anywhere he plays. In addition, Figgins exhibits an exceptional eye at the plate, walking 101 times last year, giving him a .395OBP further increasing his value, and when he’s on base he’s productive, stealing 42 bases and only getting caught 17 times. To be sure, while not without his flaws, Chone Figgins is a player with considerable tools and his loss will is a significant one; the question remains, how will the Angels be able to replace those tools, if at all? From what I can see Matsui, while a nice signing is not enough to make up for the loss of both Guerrero and Figgins and it would be foolish to think so. Perhaps Angels GM Tony Regins is confident that prospect Brandon Wood or Howie Kendrick can make up for the loss, but neither has the track record or shown an ability to stay healthy or hit at a major league level. Wood in particular, once a highly touted prospect, has shown a lack of knowledge of the strike zone at the major league level, posting a .192/.222/.313 line, striking out 74 in 230 ABs. A small sample size for sure, and he’s only 25, but the results so far don’t give the Angels much hope that Brandon can even come close to Figgins’ productivity.

In the next section I’ll cover Fernando Rodney and the loss of John Lackey, but at least here it seems the Angels offense will not be nearly as potent as it was last season. While replacing Vladimir with a more productive player, the loss of Chone cannot be understated and will be severely felt in all facets of his game. Figgins may not be the only productive player in Anaheim, but expecting to replace his value on a hope and a prayer is unrealistic. While the other players in the Angels system may turn out to be good there’s no guarantee that it will happen and if it does winning the AL West won’t be so easy.

Do the Numbers Lie?

2009-12-22T17:09:00.000-08:00

As an ardent believer of sabermetrics and the study of baseball by the numbers, it is usually easy for me to see through the power of the statistics whether a move is good or not to a reasonable degree most of the time. Indeed, the study of baseball through statistics has reached a point in precision that guys like Bill James or Rob Neyer can usually determine pretty reasonably who has the tools to succeed and who does not. And yet despite my strong belief of the validity in the numbers, there are times when I look at the numbers and everything seems like it's right and it should work out, but my gut can't be convinced. Although I've fought hard to shed myself of prejudices of baseball that come through appearances and small sample sizes, sometimes there are things that won't let you shake the sinking feeling that this just isn't going to work, something feels wrong; it is these very feelings that I have when I heard about the trade for Javier Vazquez. In a trade completed today, the 33 year old right-hander will be making his return to the Bronx in return for Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, a lefty reliever prospect and Arodys Vizcaino, and while the numbers suggest that this is a great trade I can't help but feel like this is a mistake. Fair or unfair, my indelible image of Vazquez will always be Game Seven of the now famous 2004 ALCS when Vazquez gave up the grand slam to Johnny Damon.

As I mentioned before, the numbers to this deal suggest that it's a steal for the Yankees and I want to believe it. Despite the fact Javier has bounced around on three different teams since he was traded in 2005 by the Yankees for Randy Johnson, Vazquez has been very good and at times great in that span. Averaging 213 innings a season, Vazquez has also had a 110 ERA+ in that time, averaging a very impressive 8.7 K/9, as well as a very decent 1.203 WHIP and 8.6 hits per nine innings. Second only to Randy Johnson in this decade in strikeouts, Vazquez has shown he can make guys swing and miss quite effectively, among the best in the game even, all while not walking a ton of guys and his only knock being really he gives up a few too many dingers. To be sure, when you look at these numbers in a vacuum it's a great move anytime you can get a guy of this caliber for so little to be your fourth starter! It's not enough that Vazquez is good by himself, but the fact that he will no longer be required to be a top of the rotation guy which he has been asked to do everywhere else he has been significantly increases his value to the team. Slotted behind CC, AJ, and Andy, Javy will not be asked to save the day for us as he was when we brought him and Kevin Brown in that horrible 2004 season. Further, at only nine million, Javy is somewhat of a steal for the Yankees when compared to the likes of AJ and CC's monstrous deals and for a considerably shorter time. For sure, from an objective standpoint there is very little to not like.

The deal for Vazquez is made even sweeter when you consider how little they gave up in return to get the talented right-hander. Mike Dunn, a left-handed reliever who has a good fastball and little else has shown below average control and little else while already on the wrong side of 25. Having already pitched 375 minor league innings, Dunn pitched a pretty pedestrian 3.62ERA with a 1.34 WHIP over his career. Granted, Dunn has also struck out 390 batters in that time, a pretty impressive number, but there's nothing to suggest that he's anything more than okay.

The other prospect of the deal is Arodys Vizcaino and while he's better than Dunn its unclear as to how good he'll actually be. Indeed, only 19, Vizcaino has one of the best live arms in the minor leagues right now, featuring a high 90s baseball and decent breaking stuff, Vizcaino did quite well for himself in rookie ball last year, striking out a very impressive 11.06 per nine innings with an equally impressive 1.16 WHIP in 44 innings. For sure, this is dominating stuff, but how much can you deduce from 44 innings of rookie ball? While Vizcaino has a good an arm as anyone right now, and was highly regarded in the Yankees farm system (number four overall by fangraphs), there remain a multitude of questions as to whether he will make an impact in the bigs. Only 19 years old, a lot can happen between now and when he's ready for the majors, like an arm injury or anything. This is a good pickup for the Braves and while it may hurt to lose the depth in the farm system, Vizcaino's future as a pitcher is far from certain making him expendable to the win-now Yankees.

Then you have the only sure-fire major leaguer in the deal of Melky Cabrera. At best, in his five seasons of work at the majors, Melky has been a league average centerfielder, posting an OPS+ of 99 last season with a .274/.336/.416 line, with a great arm and average range at all three outfield positions. At his worst, there are few who looked as bad at the plate at times as Melky, the season before Melky limped to the minor leagues with a 68 OPS+ and some of the most dreadful at bats you'll see by anyone on any level of baseball. While this can probably fly on a so-so team like the Braves, having a guy like this just isn't going to cut it for the Yankees so in truth they aren't missing much. Having already got Curtis Granderson in the fold and the emergence of Brett Gardner as one of the top defensive center fielders in the game (tops in UZR 150 last year in all the majors) Melky and his so-so bat is expendable and in fact probably had to go with two other centerfielders already. Throw in the fact that as a Super Two player (arbitration eligible after less than two years of service) and due for another sizable raise, moving Melky for a pitcher of Javy's caliber is a bit of a no-brainer.

To be sure, the numbers here and many more show a pretty clear cut case of a victory for the Yankees. Yet again, GM Brian Cashman has shown himself to be a deft baseball man, using his vast financial resources and a strong sense of sabermetrics to improve an already solid team significantly without giving up much. But as much as these numbers are enticing, and everything on paper says I should love this move, but I can't help but cringe a little bit at the thought of seeing Vazquez back in pinstripes. I realize that I'm being an irrational fan here, but I fear that seeing Vazquez back in the Bronx will only conjure up bad memories of the past. Sure 2004 is a long time ago and since then we've "exorcised" the demons by winning it all this year, but the moment of game seven doesn't go away. I remember very clearly where I was when I watched that game and I could almost draw shot for shot the mammoth grand slam Damon hit off him and the anguish I felt afterwards. Granted, it's not like Vazquez single handedly lost that game for us, after all he wouldn't have been in that game at all had Kevin Brown not shat the bed earlier in the game, but the moment is a microcosm of his time in the Bronx that season. Through his first 18 starts, Vazquez went 10-5 with a 3.56 ERA. He struck out 81 in 104.2 innings and sported a 3.12 K/BB ratio. In the second half, though, everything fell apart for the right-hander. He went 5-6 with a 5.79 ERA and found himself pitching in relief in the playoffs. While at times Vazquez was good if not great for us that year, ultimately Javy let us down when it mattered most. Javy later revealed that his ineffectiveness was due to a tired shoulder, a problem that he has not had since, but it would be tough to call his short stint in New York a successful one. Of course this was only one bad season, and since then Javy has shown himself to be a very good starter in the AL and NL alike, but it will be an uphill battle for me to believe in Vazquez again after breaking my heart that cold October night in 2004.

Still worse for me personally is the loss of Melky Cabrera, a guy who may have not been the best, but was one of my favorites as a Yankee. There was no good reason for me liking Melky from a numbers standpoint, and I can't count how many times I've seen him look bad or embarrassing beginning with his forgettable callup in 2005 (which was memorable if you're a Red Sox fans who enjoyed seeing Trot Nixon of all people have an inside the park home run) but he's just always been one of my guys. Melky came up during a particularly bad and boring time on the Yankees the next year and in many ways breathed some life into an old team. In contrast to everyone else on the team, Melky seemed to be having fun out there, exhibiting exuberance at every turn, making great acrobatic catches like the one on a potential Manny home run in the eighth inning seem routine. And while the numbers show a guy who just wasn't that good, I always felt like there was flashes of true talent beneath the surface for Melky. Whether it be a great at-bat against a great pitcher, or a surprisingly long home run, or even hitting for the cycle against the White Sox this year, Melky always seemed to be a step away from realizing his potential. But more than anything, there seemed to be something intangibly great and likeable about the guy. I know I sound cliché saying this, but there was just something you couldn’t help but like about the guy, and perhaps his failings made his successes all the more sweet for me as a fan. He wasn’t a great player by any means, and already 25 going on 26 the chances of him becoming an above average player are slim and none, but I always enjoyed watching him play and he will be missed.

None of these are really good baseball reasons for me not liking the move, but they are for me. While I love studying baseball numbers and how they play out on the field sometimes the subjective experience is too strong or too indelible to simply forget like they are here for Javy and Melky. I trust Cashman knows what he’s doing and if his track record has shown us anything it’s that he is an astute baseball man and I hope that the move works out, but I don’t have a good feeling about it. I hope that my gut is wrong about this and Javier Vazquez can be the reliable fourth starter that he’s capable of, but after a painful exit in 2004 it wouldn’t surprise me much if he failed at that.

Some Quick Thoughts on the Halladay Trade

2009-12-22T16:40:00.000-08:00

This is old news at this point, but I figured I'd throw a few thoughts and concerns about the recent trade involving Seattle, Philly and Toronto for Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee moving forward. For those who don't know, the Phils landed Halladay by sending Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D'Arnaud to Toronto, and Seattle got Cliff Lee by sending Phillip Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and Juan Ramizez and for the life of me I don't understand why all parties made this deal. Don't get me wrong, Seattle made out like bandits, giving away three guys all pitchers who are incredibly unremarkable prospects for a Cy Young winner at the top of his game, and Toronto I understand they needed to move Halladay, but it's Philly that I just don't get. Now for those who have been following the Halladay to Phils rumors of the previous summer, the whole time you heard over and over how the Phillies weren't going to give up their top prospects like Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek for Halladay and in fact they were lauded by the media for refusing to "give in" and give these guys away for the former Cy Young Winner. So instead the Phils gave up another three prospects to get the lesser sought-after Cliff Lee, who as we know amazed everyone with utterly dominating performances pretty much every time out in the postseason, culminating in a complete game in Game One of the World Series. To be sure, Cliff Lee with his sub 1 ERA in the playoffs was about as good as could be. But then after unsuccessful negoiatitions with Lee to sign a long term deal under market value, instead of continuing they ship him out to Seattle for three guys who weren't even the Mariners top prospects (not that they had any five caliber guys anyways) and then giving up those very "untouchable" prospects for Roy Halladay that they refused to give up before; what about this deal makes sense again? My first thought about this is well if you wanted Halladay in the first place and it was going to cost your top prospects to get him, why not just trade for him last year? What's the difference? Now, instead of having Cliff Lee and all your top prospects you've given up two sets of prospects for Roy Halladay essentially, what's so good about that? Sure they got something in return for Lee, but if you look at their numbers they're not exactly great, and most scouts and analysts I've read up to this point say the three guys they got in return are projected as marginal major leaguers at best. That's all you could get for Cliff freaking Lee? The guy who a year ago won 22 for a terrible Cleveland team and was even better this year?

Further, it's not like you're getting that much of an upgrade with Halladay, I mean sure if I had to choose between Lee and Halladay I'd take Roy anyday of the week, but are you really getting that much better? As mentioned earlier, you really can't get any better than what Lee did already, what's the point of getting Halladay when you've already got a great pitcher?

Now I understand that a lot of this was a salary thing and Lee's apparent unwillingness to sign a below market long term deal, but why didn't the Phillies resolve these issues before trading for him? Couldn't this have been totally averted by simply just finding out by talking to his agent about the possibility of signing a long term deal?

I don't have the answers to these questions, but the Phillies and Ruben Amaro Jr. will have to answer for these questions in the coming months as he has essentially gutted their farm system twice for one pitcher and replaced them with marginal guys. Of course projections are only that, projetions and its unclear how they'll fare in the future, but it is quite a lot to give up for a guy who's going to be 33 and just signed an extension. I don't doubt Halladay, a pitcher who has dominated my Yankees for many years will do well, but at what cost and for how long is the question that will determine whether all this maneuvering and posturing is worth it for the NL Champs.

Touche, Red Sox

2009-12-14T18:03:00.000-08:00

You knew that the Red Sox were not going to sit back idly forever, and today they made it quite clear that they weren’t going to rest on their laurels of a 95 win season. For certain, while some teams may be satisfied with such an impressive season, Boston has demonstrated that nothing less than a World Series title is satisfactory for their Nation’s adoring fans. In the wake of the Yankees’ heist of Curtis Granderson the great Yankees-Sox Arms race marches on without a hint of a détente in sight with some very smart signings by Theo and company. And while it’s not clear what either team will do next to one up the other team, what is clear is that the Red Sox have spent their money well on two very solid major leaguers in John Lackey and Mike Cameron.

The signing of right-hander John Lackey today for five years 85.5million by the Sox today shows that in the major leagues you can never have enough starting pitching. Indeed, already armed with easily the best one-two punch in the majors of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, the Red Sox added the much hated Angels’ ace to be their number three starter, and you could certainly do a lot worse for that slot. Coming off a season where he log 176 innings despite starting the season on the DL, Lackey last year and in fact every year in the majors has shown himself to be a very solid starter, posting an ERA+ of 118, striking out 139 while only walking 47. While only 30, John has demonstrated himself to be a guy who eats up innings, averaging 219 a year despite his injury ridden season this year, and when he’s in he’s done more than just eat innings, he’s been solid and at times dominant in big spots. In fact, Lackey, who made his introduction to the baseball world in Game Seven of the 2002 World Series, has been even better in the postseason throughout his career, posting an ERA nearly a run lower in 80 innings of work. In brief, Lackey, while perhaps not an “Ace” that he has been for the Angels the last couple years is nothing less than a very good pitcher that will only get better filling in behind Boston’s pair of real aces and that makes their rotation downright scary. With Lackey in place now, Boston can trot out Beckett, Lester, Lackey, and Bucholz in a playoff series; who in that rotation do you want to see? Every guy is a good if not great pitcher (Bucholz while not as established has the stuff to be a number one on most teams) who’s going to make the opposition work very hard for every run. For sure, Theo Epstein probably more than any other general manager out there recognizes that a run prevented is as good as a run scored, and while the Yankees are getting more bats the Sox are doing the opposite. By making their already great rotation even better, Boston makes themselves immediately more dangerous and ultimately much harder to score on. They say that great pitching beats great hitting and it seems that the Red Sox have taken this mantra to heart.

And while signing John Lackey would be big enough for most people on a day, it seems that the Red Sox were not content and made a nearly equally solid move by signing outfielder Mike Cameron to a two year 15.5million dollar deal. Now I know there are people out there saying, “Mike Cameron? Really? I mean wasn’t he on the Mets a few years ago and they traded him for Xavier Nady?” and while people may not have realize it, Mike Cameron has very quietly been one of the better outfielders in the game. Indeed, while on the older side, already 36, Cameron has been an all around force for the Brewers and the Padres with the bat and the glove and shows no signs of slowing down. Posting a +4.8 UZR last year in centerfield (compared to a -11.5UZR for Bay) Cameron has demonstrated exceptional range while being in both center and left field last year and represents a huge upgrade defensively for the Sox. Further, Cameron has shown to be a force at times with the stick too, posting a .250/.342/.452 line last year, belting 24 home runs while swiping bases at a 70% efficiency rate. While asking Cameron to duplicate Bay’s numbers last year would be unrealistic, Mike’s overall game combined with his very reasonable contract of 15.5 million over two years represents a great buy and a low risk move for the savvy Red Sox. To be frank, I had been hoping the Yankees would sign him to play left field for the Yankees, but it seems the Sox have beat us to the punch and made quite an impact.

While there remain some concerns on the Sox that their management will need to address, namely a lack of run support, it appears that Boston is well on its way to making 2010 turn out better than 2009. What the Sox have lost in Bay, they have gained in Cameron and Lackey that improved in both their pitching and defense significantly. To be sure the Sox are doing their best to make life for my Yankees quite miserable next year, but such is the great arms race between our two great baseball towns. I for one can’t wait to see what the next move will be.

Back in the game with A Bang.

2009-12-08T19:22:00.000-08:00

Well I was planning on making my grand return to blogging with a more ambitious piece about the end of the season, but it seems Mr. Cashman has forced my hand by making a blockbuster deal for one Curtis Granderson. Now mind you I’m in law school now, I basically have no time with my finals starting tomorrow, where every minute is precious, but I’ll be damned if I didn’t spend a solid two hours refreshing mlbtraderumors.com hoping for something final on the potential of landing one of my favorite non-Yankees in the prime of his career. To be honest I’m downright giddy right now, and when you spend your days and nights memorizing the principles of res ispa loquitur and promisory estoppel it’s very hard to get worked up about anything, but only the Yankees can bring out such unbridled enthusiasm in me. Indeed, if you haven’t heard the Yankees, Tigers and the Diamondbacks pulled off the biggest trade of the off-season thus far, with the Diamondbacks getting Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, the Tigers getting Dan Schlereth (son of famous TV football analyst/douchebag extraordinaire Mark), Max Scherzer, Phil “I love giving up home runs” Coke and the much ballyhooed Austin Jackson. For sure, lots of talent exchanged hands, but like most trades everyone wasn’t a winner, and at least at first glance my Yankees and the Tigers seem to make out like bandits.

Starting off with the Tigers, Detroit here seems to have gotten a decent haul for two guys they were looking to move their salary in the worst way. Clearing at least ten million easy between losing the contracts of Granderson and Jackson (depending on what he gets for arbitration), the Tigers did an excellent job getting a slew of talented cost controlled guys in return for their big names. Max Scherzer the big starter in the trade is a young tantalizing starter with great stuff but some durability issues. Featuring a mid 90s fastball and a good slider that are hard to pick up with a herky-jerky windup, Scherzer in his first full season showed flashes of dominance, striking out 174 in 170 innings while walking 63, with a respectable 4.12ERA and 111ERA+. For sure, for a guy in his first full season in the majors, battling injuries that resulted in a dip in velocity, not to mention playing on a shitty team with a lousy offense, you could do a lot worse.

Then we have Austin Jackson, the highly touted centerfield prospect from the Yankees. I’ve been following Jackson for some time now and while I’ve loved his talent and potential, it seems there are some serious questions as to what he will do with potential. Ranked as high as number twenty two by Baseball America in all of baseball, a converted basketball player has exhibited great speed and athleticism, but his bat has been inconsistent. After flashing serious power in low A ball for the Yanks slugging over .550, Jackson skyrocketed through the farm system making it all the way to AAA by age twenty one, but since then has shown signs of regression. Starting the season off in blazing fashion hitting .344 with moderate power Austin regressed dramatically, falling all the way to .304 but more importantly with an OBP of only .345 and slugging a measly .405. Now this wouldn’t be horrible except for his alarming strikeout rate of whipping a troubling 123 times in 500 at bats. Striking out over a 100 times is alright, but if you’re slugging .405, it portends for trouble for the young centerfielder when he gets to the majors. For sure, major league pitching having no fear of his power will have no problem throwing him hard stuff over the plate and Austin will likely see his strikeout rates jump even higher. So while I’m sad to see such a talented guy who and possibly blossom with the Tigers, Jackson has some glaring concerns.

From here you have Daniel Schelerth and Phil Coke, two hard throwing lefties in the pen, and here the Tigers made off well here too. Schelerth in limited time showed flashes of brilliance as well striking out 22 in 18 innings of limited work, and shows promise. Coke on the other hand, to put it lightly is a bum. With a good fastball and little else, Phil gave up an excruciating 1.50 home runs per nine innings, as a reliever! Throw in his inning in the World Series where he gave up two home runs and I say good riddance. Still, as a lefty middle reliever the Tigers could do a lot worse, and will certainly be useful and likely less homer-prone in Comerica Park.

The Diamandbacks’s haul in comparison is not nearly as impressive. Edwin Jackson, to quote Keith Law “has number one starter stuff with number five starter control” and it has shown throughout his career. Bouncing around on several teams while only 26, Jackson seemed to have gotten it together this year early on, making the All-Star team, but it seems as though it was a mirage. Striking out 161 in 214 innings, he walked over seventy. Additionally, while pitching in one of the best pitchers parks he still gave up over a home run every nine innings and 8.4 hits per nine. Now while his ERA+ 127 is pretty good, the problem here is that he’s being valued as a number one type starter, and his peripherals don’t seem to suggest that. Add in the fact that’s he’s already arbitration eligible and he’s only under control for two more years the move is kind of puzzling when you’re giving up a talent like Scherzer who is under control for five more years and that same kind of strikeout guy. Of course, Jackson has the stuff to be effective in a good pitchers park and a weak division, but when you consider what you had to give up for him, the reasoning is dubious at best.

Ian Kennedy is an even more unimpressive pitcher acquired in the trade from the Yankees that makes the Diamondback’s move mystifying. While Kennedy was an impressive minor league pitcher at times, exhibiting excellent control and the ability to strike out guys, it remains to be seen whether his fringy stuff will translate to the majors. Indeed, in his limited stints in the majors Kennedy has been underwhelming at best, last year getting batted around to the tune of an ERA over eight, and seemingly losing his pinpoint control. What’s more, as some may know already, Kennedy has also gotten a reputation as being an unwilling student of the game, frequently appearing flip and even arrogant in the face of failure, unwilling to change or try to adapt to change his approach against more advanced major league hitters. While there is still hope for Kennedy, after all his minor league numbers are quite impressive (winning minor league player of the year in 2008), but the early signs on the young righthander are not promising. Of course, a move to the far easier competition of the NL West will help Kennedy, and he has a chance to be a reliable back end starter, but it’s far from a slam dunk.

Finally, we have the Yankees and their heist of Curtis Granderson. As I said before, I’ve always admired Granderson as a player and his all around play in center field, exhibiting power, speed, as well as a defensive prowess, and adding him in the prime of his career is a great move for the Yankees. Posting the highest OPS+ of all major league centerfielders since 2007 with 129, as well as a 5.1 UZR and an 80% success rate in stealing bases, Granderson has shown himself to be a true five tool player in every sense of the term. Now, Curtis is not without his faults, particularly his horrendous lefty splits .210/.270/.344/.614, and a sort of down year for him that saw his batting average and on-base percentage slip, but there is evidence that suggests he has room for improvement. Indeed, much like Swisher did last year, Granderson was plagued by an abnormally low BABIP of .273, a number much lower than his career in the .320s. Such a low number suggests that Curtis was a victim of a lot of bad luck, and as Swisher showed us last year, statistical aberrations on BABIP usually correct themselves and we’ll see a bounce-back to his career norms. Further, Granderson posted career high 30 home runs that as I mentioned before in one of the worst hitters parks in the league. Put Granderson in the cozy confines of the New Yankee Stadium for half of his games that is perfectly suited for his lefty pull swing, I see big things for the talented centerfielder. And that’s not even mentioning the fact he’s going to be near the top of one of the best if not the best lineup in baseball, its hard not to see him succeeding in pinstripes.

Overall, I think that the Tigers and the Yankees made out very well here, but it is far from certain. After all, for the Diamondbacks to trade such a talented young right-hander with more years of control, you have to wonder if there’s something about him we don’t about. Maybe he’s destined to just be a reliever as some people have mentioned, or maybe with that wacky delivery he’s a career ending injury waiting to happen. What’s more, as I mentioned earlier, Austin Jackson’s talent may not translate to the majors and he could end up being a bust, or Granderson’s off year might be the beginning of a decline instead of just a bump of the road. It’s impossible for there to be any certainty on who will be the ultimate winner of this trade, but at least for the Yankees this seems this was a move that will help them now and for years to come. Adding a guy like Granderson will only make you better, and in truth Jackson’s ceiling was never as high as what Curtis is already, so for a team that wants to win now it’s the obvious move. Throw in the fact that they didn’t give up anything else that can’t be replaced easily, it’s a move that the Yankees couldn’t resist. I for one know I will thoroughly enjoy watching Curtis man centerfield for the Yankees for the foreseeable future.

Teixiera's Glove

2009-07-23T13:45:00.001-07:00

In today’s post-steroid era of baseball, defense and speed have dominated the headlines and highlight reels of mainstream sports media. Thanks to the more rigorous testing where true home run hitters are harder to come by, teams are forced to find value in other ways, and as result the new wave of stars have been young, fast, and great with the glove. Jason Bartlett, Grady Sizemore, Yadier Molina, and countless others are lauded for their defensive prowess and their ability to make the slick play all over the diamond. All over the diamond, it seems, except for first base. Long considered a position where you throw a big lumbering guy who can’t do much, first base defense has been consistently overlooked in favor of the big bat, and in this way the Yankees for the last seven years have been no different. Signing the former MVP Jason Giambi because of his ability to hit it out of the park and sort of forgetting the fact he’s horrible in the field, the Yankees chose to forsake infield defense for the last seven years and in the process hurt themselves. But by signing the uber-talented glove man Mark Teixeira in the off season, the Yankees have reversed the fortunes at the plate and in the field, transforming the position from one of weakness to a strength that has helped them in more ways that can be measured.
As I mentioned earlier, the Yankees signed Jason Giambi in 2002 for his offense and in this way, at least for awhile he did not disappoint. Blessed with a great eye and prodigious power, Giambi slugged his way to a 1.034OPS in his first full season and for the length of his contract consistently had an on-base percentage over .400 and slugged over .500, but he was not without his faults. Aside from the steroid thing, which we won’t get into here, Giambi just flat out killed the Yankees with his porous defense. Posting fielding percentages consistently in .980s, numbers bad enough in themselves, but the more advanced fielding metrics are even more telling to just how bad he truly was. Giambi’s RngR or Range Runs above average showed a clear lack of fluidity and range at the bag, putting up some pretty poor numbers like –1.5, -2.1, -2.8 and –6.0, only to improve to –4.9 in his final year shows Giambi as a clearly below average defensive first baseman (note: negative figures indicate below league average performance). Ultimate Zone Rating is equally as unkind to the Giambino, generating some poor ratings in the –2.1, -4.8 and –7.1 range. Indeed, it seems the subjective and unpleasant experience of watching Jason bumble around the field fleshes out to be true in the numbers, and these numbers as a consequence hurt the rest of his teammates.
For sure, when you have such a below average first baseman like Jason Giambi, his inability will only make his other infielders look worse and the numbers seem to show this to be true as well. Take for instance, Derek Jeter, a shortstop who admittedly was not a great defensive player before, with Giambi, his weaknesses seemed to only be amplified. Unfortunately, Ultimate Zone ratings prior to 2002 are unavailable, but in the data available it seems clear that as Giambi’s glove work worsened so did Jeter’s going from a not great –0.3 to an absolutely horrendous –12.6, and –16.7 as Giambi’s tenure went on. Now of course, Giambi cannot be completely blamed for Jeter’s woes, after all he is a not a great defensive shortstop who seemed to be declining with age, but as Teixeira’s short tenure has shown, a great first baseman can make up for some of those problems with superior range and compensate for the bad throw at times. This is a skill that Giambi clearly did not possess.
Moving forward to the 2008 off-season, Giambi’s option is not picked up and in his place the Yankees sign two-time Gold Glover Mark Teixeira signs a jaw-dropping $180 million dollar deal, and his impact is sudden and immediate. After enduring years of Giambi’s corpse-like average range of 7.8, Teixeira’s superior range, now standing at 9.0 for the season (a number that is actually down from last year’s 10.1) has indeed been a breath of fresh air for the rest of the Yankee infielders and it’s easy to see why. For one, Teixeria has started at first 87 times already this year, a feat Jason only accomplished twice as a Yankee and when he’s in there Teixeria’s Zone Rating has been a respectable –1.7, a number Giambi never touched. For certain, as anyone can see watching him, the impact of Teixeria’s presence has been undeniable, picking it left and right, making acrobatic dives and throws look easy, and in the process helping guys all over the diamond, particularly the aforementioned Derek Jeter who’s having the defensive season of his life. Posting a career high 1.8 UZR and an even more impressive 4.5UZR per 150 games, Jeter’s numbers have seen a huge, huge spike and he’s not alone. Second baseman Robinson Cano has seen his UZR improve from –8.0 to 0.7 as well and his RngR go from –5.4 to –1.2. And this is all in a season where Teixeira is actually is a little bit down from his previous season where he averaged closer to 10 in range factor and 5 UZR! Imagine once Mark really hits his stride again defensively, then you really have to watch out.
Again, this is only a half season’s worth of statistics and some credit has to be given to the other defenders for their improvement, but the change seems plain in the results on the field. From being a below average defensive team, the Yankees have established themselves as a good team with the glove, setting a new record for consecutive games without an error and elevating themselves from the basement to the middle of the pack in this category. Don’t get me wrong, they’re not going to challenge the Rays or the Pirates, who have the highest rated defensive team yet, but the change is unmistakable. The team has become more balanced and efficient in the way they play the game and the change, along with the other off-season acquisitions have put them back atop the AL East. They say one player can’t change a team, but at least in matters of

FOX sucks part two

2009-07-15T17:37:00.000-07:00

I'm sure many of you who read the fine website deadspin have seen this picture, but if you haven't we have here yet another example of FOX's rampant douchebaggery. If you saw the game last night I'm sure you noticed this creep in the stands who they just happen to show fairly frequently, but he is not just any person. No, in fact this was not just some weird fan but a man, no a video of a man who's an actor in the new FOX series "The Observer." They showed this weird bald dude as sort a perverse in-game advertisement for their new show, which I'm sure sucks, and this is just deplorable. Like their incessant advertising isn't bad enough, the powers that be have decided to bombard us fans with their recent crap they're hucking during the freaking game.

Now look I understand they have to make advertising money and they have all sorts of ways of doing that, but this is just too much. They less see this as a baseball game and jus another tool to force people to hear about their other crap whether they like it or not. What's worse is that this is not the first time, evidently this dude has shown up in all sorts of events like American Idol and football games for the last year. This sort of stuff needs to stop immediately. The network has systematically ruined big baseball games for years and there's unfortunately there is no end in sight. I'll stop now because I'm just repeating myself, but the fact remains, its just not good baseball.

You've Got to Be Kidding Me Fox

2009-07-15T08:16:00.000-07:00

I'll write about the game itself later which held my interest, sort of, but what really got me going was the Ceremonial First Pitch by President Obama. Now maybe I'm just weird, but I was very intrigued on whether our faithful leader could throw a strike from the mound, and I wasn't alone. Indeed Bodog a internet betting site was taking bets on whether he'd make plate so I wasn't the only person who felt that, and why not? I mean if this guy is going to be the leader of the free world, the man who speaks for a nation, I would like him or her to be able to throw a strike from the mound, or at least close. Say what you will about President Bush and his politics, which I didn't perticularly care for, when he went out there in 2001 at Yankee Stadium and threw a strike to the catcher that was a fucking moment to remember there, right? In the shadow of the crumbling towers he got up there in the middle of the Bronx all alone by himself and threw a dart right there. Okay I'm sort of being tongue and cheek here, but what I'm not kidding about here is that I was intrigued, I wanted to see this very much, and what did FOX in all their wisdom do? Why they cut away and didn't show the pitch, they didn't show it!! I hate FOX's presentation as it is but this is totally unacceptable and appalling.

I mean first of all, I really don't understand WHY they did it, were they afraid Obama would embrass himself on television? Its not like the President was doing this in some closed set studio, it was in front of an entire stadium full of people, you're pretty much guaranteed a good 40,000 people or however many people were in attendance would see it, people would know what happened, why cut away? What's more is there are a million journalists there would took photographs of it or could speak about it, why cut away, did they think that if America's viewing public didn't see him throw it in the dirt they'd never find out? I find the logic behind the move very puzzling and frustrating, just show the damn game FOX.

I doubt FOX will ever give any sort of response as to why they did it, and that pisses me off even more. FOX seems to have this agenda to force you to think what they want you to think and it makes for some shitty baseball. I realize that the Obama pitch isn't really a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but its indicitive of a larger problem with FOX and their unique brand of shit that seems to think they know what's best for America, and that's yankees-red sox is all that matters in baseball, that you should eat a lot of crappy tacos and that you wouldnt want to see the President throw out the first pitch at the All Star Game, Fuck You Fox and fuck you for thinking you know whats best for me as a baseball consumer. All this crap they pull and people wonder why World Series ratings are down to me its no shock at all when you consider the garbage FOX pulls all year, shame on them.

Pedro To The Phillies, Does it Matter?

2009-07-14T09:10:00.000-07:00

It seems that after weeks of speculation and intrigue that the famous and soon to be first ballot hall of famer Pedro Martinez is signing to the Phillies for a one year deal that will make him up to 1.5million this year. Pedro, now 37, has been signed to man the number five spot and supposedly bring some stability to the back end of a Phillies rotation that has already lost Brett Myers for the year, Antonio Bastardo to the DL for the foreseeable future and inconsistentcy from the rest of the rotation, perticularly Cole Hamels. The World Series MVP and and ace of the staff Cole has been less than stellar for the first half of the year with a 4.87 ERA with 117 hits in 98 innings, not exactly what the Phillies were expecting from the guy who was pratically unhittable all October. So as a consequence of this poor rotation Ruben Amaro, GM of the Phils have turned to the little righty Pedro, but will his presence help or hurt? Sure, this is Pedro we're talking about, one of the generations' best, but with a shoulder hanging on by a string at the tender age of 37 can the Phillies reasonably expect him to be that boost they need to win the NL east? I for one am skeptical.

If we are to go by recent history, the chances of success for Pedro are not very good. Indeed, after signing his big deal with the Mets following the 2004 season, Pedro has only had one season where he pitched over 130 innings and that was his first year there. Since then he has thrown 132, 28, and 109 innings for the Mets, so Pedro hasn't exactly been the model of health. What's more is that even when he's been healthy, Pedro has gotten less and less effective from his stellar 2005 season, seeing his hits per nine innings go up from 6.6 to 7.3 to 10.6 for the last two years, thats a pretty big jump. What's more alarming is his WHIP, which has skyrocketed in the last few years. Famously a pitcher with immaculate control who struck out hitters like it was going out of style, Pedro's WHIP went from a microsopic .949 progressing all the way to a 1.569 last year, that's quite a jump in only a few years. Of course his last year where he was only there half the year there was wonder if he was really healthy and that should be considered, as well as the fact that the year before in the small sample size Pedro was quite good striking out 10.8 batters per nine innings to the tune of a 166ERA+, but this sample size seems far too small to make any definitive statements about. As the numbers show, Pedro appears to be an old guy who's only getting worse and worse.

What's more is Pedro's new home park, Citizens Bank Park is hardly the pitchers haven he's been used to pitching down in Flushing for the last few years. Indeed, a fly ball pitcher Pedro was immensly helped by pitching in the spacious confines of Shea Stadium where his ERA every year was a good run or two at least better than away. So from there Pedro will now be pitching his home games in a real bambox, a bambox where he has gotten knocked around pretty good in his career. In four starts, Pedro has only managed to throw 18.1 innings to the tune of a 7.85 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, ouch that's pretty horrible. Of course, those numbers shouldn't be the be all and end all, after all it is only four starts and those four starts he was pitching against arguably the best hitting lineup in the NL in the best hitting park in the senior circuit. As a fifth starter, Pedro will more likely be going up against weak pitchers and lineups that are decidely weaker than his own, which will most certainly help him do better than that line suggests. Regardless, there isn't a whole lot to to love in those numbers either.

All this said and most of the variables considered, how Pedro does for the Phillies really won't make or break their playoff chances. After all, he's signing on to be the fifth starter on a National League team, and to be frank I don't think that's a very hard job for a major leaguer, I'm sure most people can't name of the fifth starter on any National League club. In the grand scheme of things he's not that important and in truth the Phillies have managed to be in first place without him or any semblance of starting pitching or relief pitching and their MVP shortstop hitting around the mendoza line. If Pedro can go out there every fifth day, or possibly less if he's passed over for an off day and keep them in the game for five or six innings he'll be everything they need. However, given his steep decline, his inability to stay healthy (he's actually already on the DL for his shoulder) and his new hitter friendly home, I am very weary whether that very bare minimum is within his reach at this point.

Some Thoughts On The Home Run Derby

2009-07-14T08:02:00.001-07:00

I'm sure like many baseball fans, I'm kind of ambivalent about the Home Run Derby. The concept of the derby is awesome, get the best sluggers out there on the same field, give them some gopher balls to hit and watch the fireworks, but something doesn't quite always work in execution all the time. It can drag, on and on and on for hours, some guys can't cut it on the stage and end up hitting a bunch of pop flies to little kids, and well the annoucing is just fucking awful. I mean think about it, you've got the worst booth in the history of sports, only they've removed Jon Miller who's awful, for Chris Berman, who's even MORE awful with his tired old calls and combine that with the dynamic duo of dunderheads Joe Morgan and Steve Phillips who have firmly established themselves as some of the games greatest windbags you're in for trouble. But then its even worse because there's very little action going on, there's a ton of downtime so you're forced to listen this terrible triumvirate speak anecdotally for hours and hours. Not exactly a non-stop thrill ride.

But as poorly as ESPN has executed the event, it seems that the event itself is prone to become tired and worn out. Don't get me wrong, I love dingers as much as the next guy, but its not like there's a lot of expression you can put into it. Certainly, its not like the slam dunk contest where guys think of all new wild ways to slam the ball, the home run derby is kind of bland, they only real aspect of it you can change is how many you hit and and how far you hit, and there aren't many guys in the world who can do that. For this reason the excitement of the derby seems decidely limited.

However there is one way to inject the derby with excitement and that's drama. For sure, its not easy to just manufacture some drama or some compelling reason to root for a guy aside from team allegiances, but when it does it like it did last year with Josh Hamilton its just great drama and a compelling watch. Indeed, many had heard of Josh Hamilton and his story, his rise and fall thanks to serious drug abuse, but it was here that his triumph and indeed the triumph of the human spirit came to fruition. Possessing seemingly Herculian strength Hamilton was clearly for that moment on another plane from the rest of the competitors there, launching an inconceivable 28 home runs in the first roun, 28! I called everybody I knew to tell them about the genius that was being put on display that night, with his sweet left handed stoke hitting balls to places in the Old Yankee Stadium I have never seen before, and I've watched a lot of baseball games there. In short, it was everything a Home Run Derby can be, epic and grand, a drama with the highest of highs and lowest of lows with some compelling players. Of course, Hamilton did ultimately lose to the dullard Morneau, but by then the story had been already written with this derby being forever known as the day Hamilton did his best Roy Hobbs impression and wowed the baseball world.

I kind of got wrapped up in describing the event more than I should have, but my point is that when you have the best derby ever last year anything less than that just sucks and that was the case this year. There was several bums out there like Brandon Inge who shockingly hit no home runs (its like its a garbage number eight hitter or something who just happens to hit home runs but that's all he does, or something) or guys like Joe Mauer, who's obviously not a bum but is no home run hitter by any stretch, and it adds up to a pretty forgettable home run derby. In truth, its really not fair to compare the two, but unfortuantely all other derbys subsequent to that one will be judged against that and it didn't fare so well. I'm not here saying I know how to fix it or what can be done to improve it, because I'm not sure if you can, it is what it is, but what it is isn't that all thrilling.

Jays Looking To Deal Halladay

2009-07-14T06:37:00.000-07:00

Well it seems as though the Jays early season surge was in fact an illusion and Blue Jays are left in a familiar position, fourth place in the AL East looking up at the three best teams in the Junior Circuit (arguably). For sure, after early promise this was not the position Toronto's managment was expecting to be, but at the halfway points its become more clear that this team just won't cut it, they're just not as deep not as talented as the Rays, Sox, and Yankees and something must be done. That something to be done seems to be more dramatic than many expected when Toronto GM JP Riccardi announced he's shopping arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay, but is it for the best? Sure Halladay should command a decent haul, but will they be able to get anywhere near the value he brings or will be it pennies on the dollar? It's a question that cannot be answered yet but if played deftly by Riccardi dealing Halladay might be the smartest thing the Blue Jays have done in years.

Of course when dealing a player of Halladay brings a great deal of risk, after all prospects are no sure bet and even the best ones can flame out, but for the Jays its an opportunity that could pay off big. Consider the Mark Texiera trade, who also had one and a half year left on his contract like Halladay. Traded to the talent rich Altanta Braves, the Braves sent over SS Elvis Andrus, RHP Neftali Perez, LHP Matt Harrison, LHP Beau Jones, and C Jarrod Saltamacchia and its plain to see since then the Rangers have vastly improved for the long term since then. Andrus, now with the major league club has become a conerstone of the Rangers' defense and a surpsing amount of offense, Neftali Perez, now the highest rated pitching prospect in all the land, Saltamacchia has emerged as a productive hitter behind the plate and Matt Harrison who addmittedly has had his bumps in the road, is still only 23 and could soon emerge as a valuable member of the rotation, not a bad huh? Now of course its no guarantee as of yet but such a haul of prospects can literally turn around an organization just as it did with the Rangers. Long a basement dweller for years, Texas has vaunted itself into contention in the AL west a mere two years later and look poised to be a major player for years to come, why not give that a try? Sure its no sure bet, but it seems clear that attempting to compete fielding this team is sure to fall short again.

Of course there are a great deal of people who would be more than happy but where is the best fit is the real question. I think that of course the Red Sox and Yankees have to be involved to raise the stakes, as they both obviously have the money and actually both have the prospects, but I think if they can avoid dealing within the division they should. The Phillies have been prominently mentioned and they too would also be a good fit, big market, money to spend, lots of talented prospects and he's moving to the National League where he'll probably be never hit again so that works for him. They haven't been mentioned but the Dodgers have the money and the pieces to get him and they could desperately need him. They've obviously done well so far, but their starting pitching has been so-so at best, not going deep enough into games and forcing a lot of pressure on their bullpen, adding a guy who averages 230 innings will only make them that much more dangerous.

Its hard selling a fanbase on something like getting rid of your best player for some kids, but its something the Jays just need to do right now. A team that not that long ago was the toast of the town and a prennial winner has become a doormat to the yanks, sox and now even the rays. Thier current half-assed attempt to stay competitve by sort of spending money and sort of developing needs to stop, just accept that its going to be another couple of years of sucking, something they've done already and regroup, get younger and build a new core of talented young guys who can win for years. Its a hard sell, but its a whole lot harder than selling the good people of Toronto on third and fourth place finishes year in and year out.

Quitting Time

2009-07-13T14:20:00.000-07:00

You've probably noticed my posting increased a lot today and its for good reason, I gave notice last week. As you might guess, my "Give a Shit" Meter is kind of low now, I've been here two years and they can, as they say kiss my ass. So I'm going to try to give more posts from here on in, so lets see if I can hopefully do better than last month.

Giants' Middle Reliever Throws No-No

2009-07-13T13:19:00.000-07:00

Okay, to call Sanchez a middling reliever is not really fair, but if you were to look at what the young talented Jonathan Sanchez has accomplished thus far this year, Sanchez would hardly be among the top three guys you'd think of when you hear "San Francisco Giants Pitcher Throws No-No." Indeed, as a team with immensely talented pitching spearheaded by arguably the best pitcher in the world, Tim Lincecum, the Giants have been foridible to say the least. With Lincecum and Matt Cain off to the All-Star Game, a future first ball hall of famer in Randy Johnson, a pitcher whos being paid over 100 million as their fourth best starter at best (Zito kind of sucks, but you could do worse as a four starter) the Giants are the enby of the rest of the league for their prodigious pitching. Well it seems that pitching has gotten even more impressive as Jonathan Sanchez, whom wasn't even in the rotation due to ineffetiveness, came in against the Padres and three the gem of his life, nine innings, eleven strikeouts, and no hits. Add all of these elements together and despite the fact they have practically have no offense, the Giants seem suddenly more dangerous than ever, posied atop the wild card race and intent on staying there.

Thanks to the good graces of MLB Network (Great Network, or The Greatest Network?) I was able to watch a great deal of this game and what a performance it was indeed. As mentioned above, Sanchez wasn't even supposed to be starting that night or any night, but thanks to a bad back for Barry Zito, and its not hard to see why. Through 69 innings Sanchez had an ERA over five walking a pretty atrocious 45 over that span and gettting hit around even worse than Barry Zito. Relegated to the pen Sanchez showed flashes of what he finally got to together that fateful friday night and what a flash it was. Featuring a high 90s heater and a wicked slider, Sanchez, only 25 has been around and hasn't gotten it together, but at least for one night he was unbelievable. Pumping fastballs and nasty breaking stuff by the hapless Padres, it seemed clear early on these guys didn't stand a chance. Of course this is the padres we're talking about so they're not exactly murders row, but its hard to say that anyone would have a chance against him that night.

it will be interesting to see where Sanchez's career goes from here. A guy with all the talent in the world who could be as great as he wants to be can go many directions from here. Indeed, while many great pitchers have no-hitters to their resume, there are many many other pitchers who have thrown no-hitters who went on to do nothing, and that game being a blip on the radar on an otherwise unimpressive career. If you dont believe me, go to si.com and see the gallery of pitchers who threw no hitters for their teams, I'm a baseball nut and I didnt know a whole lot of them. Hopefully for the Giants and Sanchez that was only a signal of things to come because the guy is as talented as any pitcher out there, you get him pitching at a level similar to that of Cain and Lincecum, watch out, because theres a triumvirate to rival maddox, glavine and smoltz, at least talent-wise. Whether that dream will come to fruition is something only time will tell, but at least for this night the Giants showed just how deep they are in their staff, and are a team to be recokened with come October.

Would You Trust Your Team To This Man?

2009-07-13T07:14:00.000-07:00

Writing this morning's post compelled me to think about how utterly horrible and unwatchable the Mets have been under this man's tenure. I mean seriously, doesn't this guy look like he's full of shit? Okay I'm taking a cheap shot, but if I were a Mets fan I would be incredibly diasppointed in Omar's time as General Manager, a time where he has completely decimated their farm system to win now (which if you haven't heard hasn't happened), signed bad guys to crippling contracts like Oliver Perez and his 36 million dollar deals and most importantly has failed to make the Mets a complete organization, as this season and the little league lineup the Mets have been trotting out there lately. For sure, for a guy who came in with such hype and promise who has been lauded for deals where he supposedly turned water into wine, what good has it done? how are the Mets any better than they were? The fact is they're not and change is necessary if the Mets fans hope of ever getting back to the top of the mountain again.

If one is unsure of how talented a GM Minaya is all they need to do is look at their current incarnation and see how hopeless they really are. Beset with a multitude of injuries that no one would have expected is bad enough, but not having a single impact player in the system who could at least provide league average production is completely unacceptable. I mean for christ's sake their leadoff guy has been Alex Cora, a guy whos OPS hasnt even been close to league average since 2004, and that's the guy they give the most at-bats to! You're telling me there isn't one guy in their farm system who can give you something at least close to average? Indeed, as far as I'm concerned this is indicitive of piss poor management of an organization, a total lack of depth in the farm to supplement the major league team. And I don't even mean someone who's going to carry the team or anything like that, just someone who isn't an automatic out or a starter who you're confident can at least keep you competitive in the game, can you name one? No its hard to because instead this very promising season has turned into a blooper roll and Minaya only has himself to blame.

If you remember when Minaya came in several years ago, the guy was all about change, shaking things up and making them a contender right now, and he did but a very costly price. Trading for guys like Carlos Delgado, Johan Santana, investing big money into Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran make big headlines but they came at the cost of overall organizational health. For sure, the team won early on, coming within one curveball from being in the world series in 2006, but it came at a terrible price, the price of their long term health. Prospects like Matt Lindstrom and Mike Jacobs, or even more talented draft picks like Clay Bucholz who the sox got for Pedro, talented young players who could have provided cheap and consistent production for several years were shipped off for the quick strike for older and experienced players. And sure, most of those guys did compete for a time, but as this season has shown the bad thing about veterans is that they get hurt a lot, and its easy to see why. I mean as your body gets older it doesn't recover as quickly and more prone to injuries and these last few months for the mets have shown that to be true. Depend on older players, especially in the post-PED era and you're going to hurt. Despite this very clear trend, Omar has stubbornly continued that way and look where its gotten them.

Whats more is Omar's seeming inability to improve his ballclub throughout the year. While other contenders recognize their vunerabilities and make moves to fill their holes at the deadline, Omar has been consistently immoible come the end of July, and the results are pretty clear. Two epic late season collapses and now a team with no offense to speak of and the best he can do is trade a valuable outfielder for a guy who's career OPS+ is 90, that doesn't sound like improvement to me. Now I'm not saying Omar should make moves for the sake of making moves, but certainly there's something he could have done in the past few years that could make a difference while not killing the team, right? Nope instead Omar stood pat and got passed by.

I'm not saying everything Omar has done is bad, and in truth some of his failures were caused by problems that he can't be blamed for (injuries etc etc) but for me the mark of a good organization is having the pieces to move to be able to deal with problems. Take the Red Sox, they lose Dice-K for most of the year, are they worried? Hardly, they signed Smoltz and Penny and have a pleathora of arms who can fill that hole. Boston like many other teams are prepared for the worst case senario and smart enough to know how to make your team better like Cashman trading for Bobby Abreu a few years back. Of course they both have the financial means to do that, but so do the Mets and why not use it wisely, for something that's pretty imprortant? No he hasn't and for that if Omar's still the General Manager of the Mets next year I feel very very badly for a team that seems to get nothing going there way, and this is not helping it.

Former "The Natural" Impersonator Traded, Minaya continues his winning ways as GM

2009-07-13T05:39:00.000-07:00

When this Sports Illustrated came out in 2005 Jeff Francoeur seemed every bit Roy Hobbs as the the magazine wanted you to believe. Indeed, young and talented with a great swing, and cannon arm, the Braves were the envy of the league when they premiered this young slugger to the world early that year and did not disappoint. 14 homers, 20 doubles, 45 RBI, .300 average in 70 games with some sterling defense, it seemed inevitable that Francoeur would beccome a perennial all-star, a fixture in the MVP voting year and in year out, and perhaps even with his southern boy charm, become a new "ambassador of the game" a Derek Jeter for the new decade. Today these claims seem quite silly and ridiclous, but in 2005 it was hard not to get swept away in the sheer beauty of all aspects of his game. I for one took a liking the Frenchy in his early days, with his healthy swing and quick hands and his rifle arm in right field because he seemed to play the game so fluidly and gracefully, he seemed every bit worthy of the Hobbisan comparisions, at least for a time. In his first full season Francoer hit 29 home runs and drove in 103, very respectable numbers except that his holes became to be glaring, hitting .260/.293/.449 in deceivingly unimpressive fashion.

For all the guys talent and grace, the dude is a hacker, he swings big and his swings often and as so many other free-swingers have been revealed, its that good major league pitching will expose that and that's exactly what happened. After another year that was actually slightly better, his OBP was .336 but with even less power, clubbing only 19 home runs the next year saw his game fall apart 239/.294/.359 looking absolutely lost and a shell of a guy OPS+ing a horrible 68, I mean they guy wasn't even close to league average! What happened to the Natural? Where has all the promise vanished? For certain, the sunny promise of Francoeur's 2005 has clearly since vanished before our eyes, traded for a guy who's at best a platoon right fielder, and even then he's still not the most valuable guy. How the mighty have fallen.

It seems kind of strange to think that Ryan Church, a guy who was a part-timer in the Nationals organization and later with the Mets could possibly the better chip between him and "The Natural" but the numbers show this is as true. Indeed, just going by OPS+ Church, also a left-handed hitter which is a natural advantage, is clearly the better player, having OPS+ of 131, 114, and 106 in the last three years compared to Francouer's 87, 103 and 72 the last three years. Even at his best he still didn't possess the offensive prowess of this glorified platoon player, but it is in fact true. Consistently getting on base at a much higher clip .345 career to Francouer's .308 as well as a better batting average by a good fifteen points Church has proven himself to be the more valuable player over the last few years.

Yet despite these clear facts, Omar Minaya in his infinite wisdom decided that he should play the Braves extra for the pleasure of getting an inferior player, cash? I'll get to Minaya and my loathing in other posts in more gruesome details, but this is a really baffling move. At the very best, this is a lateral move, and even that is really a insult to Church. As you can see, despite Francoeur's big entrance to the major leagues, he has never capitalized on that early promise and proven himself to not only not be that player, but not even really a major league starting outfielder! And yet here Minaya is in all his wisdom that somehow he's going to re-kindle that hot start and be the sparkplug that the mets so desperately need, and I don't get it all. For all of Church's faults, his concussion last year that kept him from being effective all year, his baserunning gaffe, at Dodger Stadium he's proven to be a legitimate major league starter who can provide some pop from the left side. Now not only do the Braves have that, but they've also receieved relief in the form of just straight cash and have effectively made out like bandits.

Don't get me wrong, Church isn't a great player by any stretch, he's hitting a fairly pedestrian .280/.332/.375, but at least there is some value in that. As a lefty he can provide some excellent lefty platooning possibilities to their rather punchless outfield, or at the least he can go in right field to replace Francoeur (where he was actually benched) and provide the Braves with less than a total zero out there. As for Francoeur, he's going to a lineup that is absolutely punchless and a ballpark that has proven to be a terrible hitters park that should only make his already putrid numbers even worse. What's there to like?

I hate to see guys with so much promise fall by the wayside because its just wasted talent. A few years ago it was unfathomable that the Braves would move a guy who seemed so poised to be a fixture in the Braves lineup for years to come, let along inside the division to a rival, but that time has come to pass. At the very least for the Braves they got something of value in return, but for the Mets who are now a little bit poorer and left with the inferior player, there's not much to like. Sure there's the possibility of Frenchy re-discovering his groove, but with a .308 OBP that's only getting worse, I dont see it.

Strasberg's a bust, didn't you hear?

2009-07-07T14:54:00.000-07:00

This has been something that has been stuck in my craw for a few months now and I've grown very weary of what I consider cookie cutter journalism covering the phenom that is Steven Strasburg. He hasnt signed yet and hopefully will but the hype has been unreal in the last few months and for good reason. Unbelivable strikeout numbers like 23 in one game, a minscule ERA and WHIP all seemingly out of nowhere, undrafted out of high school, the hyperboles from scouts everywhere have been abound. Greatest pitching prospect I've ever seen best arm ever and so on and so forth which indeed can be tiring in itself but it is even moreso when coupled with an even more irritating story in my mind, that he's bound to be a bust. Okay maybe most don't say it out loud and put it more elloquently than that, but the jist of it is that he'll never be good, and why? Look to history they say, look at the abundance of busts who were considered the next great thing, guys who seemingly looked unstoppable when they were drafted wilted under the pressure and were garbage, wastes of vast sums of money, the lot of them, but is that entirely fair? Sure there has been a lot of guys who haven't lived up to the contract who haven't been as advertised, but does that necessarily mean that they won't be good? Take Lebron James, no one was more hyped than him, I mean the guy was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as a freaking high school junior, he turned out pretty good didn't he? Who knows, maybe I'm just being kind of crabby and I just read too much sports writing, after all there are only so many angles a writer can take there's only so many things someone can say about a topic, but at least I feel like the overwhelming majority of it seems to have the same overarching message that he's done before he's started and why do that? Sure, a lot of former pitching phenoms that were supposed to be great turned out as being busts, but there are plenty who've been very successful, josh beckett and kevin brown to name a few (i realize they aren't the best examples but very good pitchers) what about them? My point is that all these "busts" are individual cases, guys like Brien Taylor or Todd Van Poppel failed for a bunch of reasons with no real correlation, the only thing tying them together is that they happened to be the bee's kneees of that years draft. I mean shit Brien Taylor broke his hand in a fight and was never the same, what are the odds of that happening? I say let's abstain from judgment until he actually does something, the guys got all the tools to be great for many years, let him and his actions decide whether he's great and not recent history.

My All Star Ballot

2009-06-30T13:28:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the lack of posting, I haven't had the time/energy/anything worth writing about recently, but I'll do my best to pick up the pace. Anyways I was reading Tom Verducci's list of all-stars for his offcial ballot and while its not bad it inspired me to give my list of all-stars just the starters and the reasoning behind it.

American League

1B. Mark Texiera - I realize that he may look lacking in areas such as batting average, as he only is batting .276 but when you're OPSing over .980 it kind of makes up for it a bit. More importantly, despite his really awful start to the season the raw numbers don't show precisely how utterly dominant this guy has been since then, as someone who's seen him everyday he's carried the yankees with his bat and at least as importantly with his defense.

2B. Aaron Hill - I'll agree with Verducci here, I knew he was hitting well but 19 home runs with a line of .302/.340/.506 from second base, well that's pretty impressive. Especially when you consider that his career was seriously derailed by a concussion that he didn't get over for a very long time its been remarkable. Indeed, you watch them enough its plain to see that Hill has basically carried this team, and this is down from where he was a few weeks ago.

SS. Jason Bartlett - God help me I pick a freaking Tampa bay Ray over my man Derek Jeter and I almost did pick him over Bartlett given that he's missed a good chunk of the season the DL but the guy's numbers are still better, .368/.404/.566 with 17 stolen bases and 6 home runs compared to the Captain's .309/.384/.455 with 19 stolen bases and 9 home runs. To Jeter's credit its still good and an improvement from last year but its hard to argue with those numbers and his stellar numbers. All that said I still want Jeter to win and I'll vote for him because he's a yankee and damnit what would an all-star game be without Jeter?

3B. Evan Longoria - Man I feel like I'm copying Verducci here but you can't argue with Longoria the disussion begins and ends with Evan this year. Sure A-Rod is playing better but he's hardly been all-star caliber its not even worth discussing.

OF - Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz, Jason Bay - a lot of deserving guys for sure but these three stand out for me for various reasons, all having career or breakout years and seem to me to be great overall players

Pitchers - Zach Greinke, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, John Lester, Justin Verlander

I could list more but I won't just two reliever and five starters is adequate, all of these guys have been absolutely lights out all year.

As you can see I suprisingly thought the fans did a decent job with the all-star teams, with some exceptions like Pedroia over Hill who's clearly having a better season, but for the most part the fans will get to see the best of the best.

Dice-K, Not as Advertised

2009-06-23T13:12:00.000-07:00

It seems like a long time ago but three years ago Dice-K was a living legend, a near myth. Indeed, some baseball insiders had heard about him and in the first World Baseball Classic we got our first glimpse of the wonder of the far east, a diminiutive pitcher who threw in the high 90s and a proverbial kitchen sink of off speed stuff, sliders, curves, cutters, and even, at least alledgedly the "gyro ball" a pitch that sounded like it was out of a Dr. Seuss book. For sure Daisuke Matsuzaka to many here too good to be true, a pitcher who was treated like a god in japan was available to every american baseball team, at the right price, and it seems today it was too good. For sure, as Daisuke Matsuzaka goes onto the DL for the second time this year already with shoulder problems it's hard to say that the man has lived up to the myth and has made at least some question whether the Japanese model of baseball could ever translate to the rigors of the american game.

Daisuke Matsuzaka burst onto to the scene in Boston to quite a bit of fanfare for sure. Indeed, I remember going to spring training games in Fort Myers, FL the home of the red sox and I couldn't help but be amazed how many "Matsuzaka" shirts I saw on the backs of red sox fans, this guy had never even pitched a game for the Sox and they already adored the guy! As a rookie perhaps he didn't quite live up to the billing but he represented himself well of what was to come, leading the team in innings pitched and sporting a not so awful 4.40ERA striking out 201 in 204 innings but walking a pertty horrible 80 batters. For sure, from the early going you could see watching the man they called Dice-K was a troublesome and stomache-ache inducing event, throwing tons of pitches in a very deliberate manner walking guys like it was going out of style and constantly nibbling at the corners, never ever giving into the hitter. And yet somehow despite his especially infuriating style, it just worked, he somehow always managed to get out of the jams early on, and in truth it didn't matter much because the team was on a roll, crusing to an easy AL east title and despite falling behind the Indians in the ALCS, won that and the World Series, why worry? Plus the next year he was even better spotting a 2.90 ERA to go with a 18-3 win loss record, for sure they had the makings of an ace right? Well perhaps not as Dice-K's location problems only worsened, seeing his strikeout numbers plummet to 154 in 167 innings which walking a leage leading 94 batters, how? How did he seemingly always find a way out?

Well it appears that Matsuzaka's luck has run out early on this season as the former myth is looking very human and emantly hittable. Having a 8.91ERA 18 walks and 34 strikeouts in 35 innings Dice-K isn't fooling anyone and as many will tell you harder and harder to watch. Indeed, one friend of mine who's a red sox fan tells me he can watch a game where Dice-K pitches and check on two or three channels in between pitches, its just brutal. Now of course there is a possibility that he'll recover from these problems but the numbers don't seem to give him much hope. Three DL stints in two years, diminished strikeout numbers and increased walks, all signal to me that at the end of his contract, the Red Sox are going to be very very regretful to have invested 103 million into this guy and given his history it shouldn't be suprising. For sure, Matsuzaka has been the poster boy for the campaign against babying pitchers. Look at Dice-K he throws every day, works on little or no rest constantly and he's been fine look at him! Well as we can see now with the advantage of hindsight such talk is fool-hearty and shortsighted.

Perhaps he will turn it around or perhaps some other japanese pitcher will come over and be able to translate his dominance to the american game, but its looking less and less likely as time goes on. As two consecutive WBC titles will attest the japanese game is a good one and a succesful one at that, but if the Hideo Nomo and Chan Ho Parks of the world have shown us anything its that it doesn't work in the long run, and in a time in baseball where players fight for the big long term contracts, that's not something owners will more and more be reluctant to give it a whirl.

The Chosen One Chooses to Skip High School

2009-06-15T13:23:00.001-07:00

A few weeks ago Sports Illustrated put a 16 year old kid on their cover who they gave some pretty high praise, The Lebron of Baseball, the Chosen One among others and his rap sheet read like a tall tale. 96 mile per hour fastball, 570 foot home runs (that's right 570), .626 batting average, it was hard ot believe, I had to see it to believe it. Thankfully we live in an age of youtube and I got my wish very quickly. If you get a chance look for it and the boy, check that, the man, named Bryce Harper is pretty incredible. Indeed, as you can see above the power display took place in Tropicana Field, and I've seen my share of games there, but I've NEVER seen anyone hit the ball where he was hitting it, it was pretty unbelievable. Well in the weeks since the publication of the SI cover story Harper has become a bit of a sensation, with clips of hime on YouTube to hundreds of fans showing up for HIGH SCHOOL GAMES and it seems that Bryce is siezing on that right now. Although only 16 years old, Harper is getting his GED and enrolling this fall into a community college to play with older kids and a wooden bat, but most importantly become draft elligible at the tender age of 17, but is he justified? Should he sacrifice his high school years for the big bucks? Although some may argue I say yes, chase your dreams Bryce, you're wasting your time in high school and your talent, get on the fast track and see if you really are every bit as good as they say.

There are many, like Jeff Pearlman whom I respect greatly who would argue that Bryce is rushing into things. Indeed, he and the rest of people of who echo his sentiment make a good point, after all its only another year more that he'd have to be in high school and there's probably a great deal he'd miss in social development, but at least from what I can tell, Bryce is no ordinary sixteen year old. For sure, as a guy who has been "the chosen one" by scouts everywhere he hasn't lived a normal life up to now, he's been on the road at home run derbys, all-star games all over the country while other kids were home grabbing drinks from their old man's liquor cabinet, he's just on another track. Indeed as a guy who's already routinely gets asked for autographs whereever he goes, this is not some 16 year old kid, on the field and in life he's a man, so why bother spinning his wheels in high school? Besides, his stock is high now, why not get the money when he can, who knows what will happen in the next two years? He could get hurt and never play again and he'll never be able to capitalize on his talent, but at least now Bryce stands a chance of cashing in on his gifts, the longer he's an amateur the greater the risk to him as an investment.

The other and probably more important reason for Bryce going to college to become draft elligible is that he seems like he's ready for it. Now granted my exposure to Bryce is limited, and fine writers like Tom Verducci are very deft at making their subject appear anyway they want to, but reading his quotes from the article I was struck at his confidence and maturity. For sure, after being told you're the best thing since sliced bread for so long can be a detriment to a young man, but Bryce seems to embrace it, but not content with the honors. Indeed, Bryce has big dreams and high aspirations for himself because he's a competitor at his core, a guy who wants to prove he's every bit as good as people say he is, which is why he's doing what he's doing now by enrolling into college. Sure Bryce could beat up on high school kids for the next two years, but he's not content to do that, he wants to be challanged to hone his skills and prove himself to the doubters and take the next step.

I for one am rooting for the kid, it would be such a shame to see Bryce never realize that talent that right now seems so boundless. After finding out about the guy and his character and how he handles everything he seems like a good guy a guy who has the wherewithal to do it, I just hope he doesn't become another flameout in the long line of "Next Big Things."

Interleague Play, Who Cares

2009-06-12T14:07:00.000-07:00

Well this weekend marks the second weekend of the season where we roll out our favorite "rivalries" for interleague play, but why? Okay, thirteen years ago, this was a really interesting and novel idea, why wait until the world series, let's play the other league, see teams that we've never seen before, watched some rising stars we haven't heard of yet, and so on and so forth, and it worked in principle. Indeed, as any baseball person will tell you interleague play is good for baseball, it cuases more people to watch, more people on average show up to the games which of course means more money in the pockets of owners and players alike, but is it really better for baseball? Sure as a yankee fan at first the novelty of playing the Mets was fun and interesting, but who really cares at this point? For certain, while an interesting idea and a good way to boost interest in the game when it was sagging, the novelty and usefulness of interleague play has run its course. For the most part it causes lackluster series matchups (who cares about rockies-tigers?) and most importantly it takes away from the great peannant race in which major league baseball is predicated on.

As I mentioned above, while there are some series that are intriguing, for the most part interleague play produces some pretty lackluster series. For sure, for every white sox- cubs series, there is five twins-cardinals series, royals-diamondbacks series and rays-brewers series, do any of those really sound that interesting? Sure these are teams that your hometown team doesn't usually play, its novel and can be interesting, but it was only novel a decade ago. Now in 2009 I've seen the yankees play the dodgers play twice, the phillies two or three times, and so on and so forth, it doesn't really excite me that much because they're kind of irrelevant. Yeah okay so you beat the world champion phillies a few times, but if you're not even the best in your division it wont matter a whole lot. Perhaps I'm alone in this, but the prospect of going to say Cleveland or Detroit a few times a year instead of once sounds way more exciting. Indeed, there was a time not long ago when the Indians and the Yanks had a pretty lively rivarly going on, for years battling one another all year, now? We go there once a year, once a year! That's the same amount of games we go to the Mets ballpark! At least for me novelty is no prize when it comes at the stake of more important american league battles that have far more juice to them.

The other aspect of interleague play is forcing pitchers to hit when they haven't done it all year or for many for years at all. Now I realize that this sounds hypocritical of my love of hitting pitchers, but its just plain unsafe to have a pitcher who hasn't done any running of the bases or hitting to just step in the box against major leaguers. In an ideal world they'd always be doing those things and the DH would be gone, but this is not an ideal world we live in and as such pitchers just don't do those things and as a consequence end up looking foolish. The best example of this is of course Chien Ming Wang, a guy who never hits or runs the bases last year got a freakish injury on his foot that he really hasn't recovered from. This just may be a yankee fan's sour grapes, but it doesn't suprise me all that much if the same were to happen to any other american league pitcher who just isn't used to doing this things and all of a sudden is forced to do on the highest level of baseball played in the world.

Of course they'll never get rid of interleague play because baseball doesn't make its money off of baseball traditionalists like me, and its a shame because it really takes away from the great pennant race. Formerly the main feature of the baseball season, there used to be no playoffs at all up until the world series because it was seen as sort of redundant. Indeed, it was the feature of the regular season, the 154 or 162 game schedule where you played the rest of your respective league over and over to decide who was the best in baseball instead of some silly five game series. But now the glory of that pennant race has been sullied by interleague play. Instead of having to play its peers a large chunk of a team's schedule is against teams that have no stake in the pennant at all. Some teams can get a lucky break and play a shitty division that year en route to a dozen or so easy wins to pad their win total while some other team ends up playing a tougher division and in turn could get decimated in the long run. Of course its baseball and to be the best you need to beat everyone so you could argue otherwise, but at least for me the luster of interleague play has long since faded, give me back my pennant race.